23 December 2016: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Improvement Continues

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 40th week – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Ticked Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 144.0 from 143.9. The growth rate increased to 11.8% from 11.3%, highest since May 7, 2010, a 346-week high.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

– read ECRI’s “Pinching Productivity“.

– read Lakshman Achuthan’s recent interview on The Washington Post.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows a small decline in the rate of economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises in November

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 113.8 from a downwardly revised 113.4 reading in October, first reported as 113.7, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy’s rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth marginally declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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