Written by Gary
Wall Street slid into the negative zone right after the opening (SPY -0.3%). U.S. oil rig count rises again, by 2 to 525, the US Dollar index loses momentum and crude prices remain in the 53 handle. Short-term indicators are turning negative.
Here is the current market situation from CNN Money | |
 | North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 0.75%, while the IPC is leading the S&P 500 lower. They are down 0.94% and 0.37% respectively. |
Traders Corner – Health of the Market
| Index | Description | Current Value |
| Investors.com Members Sentiment: | % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) | 70% |
| CNN’s Fear & Greed Index | Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear | 62% |
| Investors Intelligence sets the breath | Above 50 bullish | 67% |
| StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) | anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. | -2.04 |
| StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) | $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when: a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65% Secondary Bullish Indicators: a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50) b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line) c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line) | 76% |
| StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) | Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. | 70% |
| StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) | In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. | 70% |
| StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) | ten year note index value | 24.55 |
| StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) | As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy | 81.65 |
| StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) | Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors | 11,084 |
As U.S. equities entered their last trading day of the year today, markets remained unconvinced that the Fed call for three rate hikes in 2017 would hit the mark.
As of today, Fed fund futures priced in the first hike in 2017 at the June meeting with a probability of around 65%, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds stood at 50.8% for a second rate hike at the November meeting.
However, unlike the Fed’s forecast, markets priced in the chance of the Fed hiking rates three times by the end of 2017 at only 35.7%.
What Is Moving the Markets
| Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
| Wall St. set to end 2016 with a whimper(Reuters) – U.S. stocks fell on the last trading day of 2016, eating into gains for the year, as Apple led a decline in technology stocks. |
| Apple to cut iPhone production in first quarter of 2017: report(Reuters) – Apple Inc will trim production of iPhones by about 10 percent in the January-March quarter of 2017, the Nikkei financial daily reported on Thursday, citing calculations based on data from suppliers. |
| Silicon Valley’s obscure unicorns could boost 2017 IPO market(Reuters) – Social media firm Snap Inc may be the highest profile tech IPO planned for 2017, with the potential to raise billions. |
| FTC seeks more info on Bass Pro-Cabela’s deal(Reuters) – U.S. fishing and hunting equipment retailer Cabela’s Inc , which is being bought by privately held rival Bass Pro Shops, said the Federal Trade Commission had sought more information from the companies about the deal. |
| Foxconn joint venture to build $8.8 billion LCD plant in ChinaBEIJING (Reuters) – A joint venture between Hon Hai Precision Industry Co , known as Foxconn, and Sharp Corp plans to build a 61 billion yuan ($8.8 billion) factory in China to produce liquid-crystal displays (LCDs). |
| China’s Midea receives U.S. green light for Kuka takeoverFRANKFURT (Reuters) – China’s Midea said it will complete its takeover of German robotics maker Kuka in the first half of January after the United States authorities gave the deal a green light. |
| Dollar set for yearly gain despite brief euro surgeNEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar was on track to notch a fourth straight year of gains against a basket of major currencies on Friday, despite briefly tumbling against the euro during the Asian trading session on thin liquidity. |
| China policymakers pledge stability for ‘complex’ year aheadBEIJING (Reuters) – China’s economy is on a steady growth path as 2016 ends, supported by a housing boom and billions in government investment, but the mood of policymakers is more cautious than celebratory as they face “complexity” in the new year. |
| Oil, metals post stellar 2016 gains on output cuts, demand hopesSINGAPORE (Reuters) – Crude oil, rubber and metals are set to end 2016 with strong gains, bouncing back from several years of losses on output cuts and expectations of firmer demand. |
| Drudge Report Suffers “Biggest DDOS Attack Since Inception” As Obama Unveils Russian SanctionsJust hours after President Obama unveiled his sanctions against Russia for “meddling in the US election,” one of the largest alternative, and allegedly “fake news” aggregators – Drudge Report – suffered the “biggest DDOS attack since the site’s inception” according to founder Matt Drudge, who noted “suspicious routing and timing” of the attack.
The site was down briefly at around 7pmET and the attack lasted 90 minutes according to IBTimes. When the attack began, the top headline read: “MOSCOW MOCKS OBAMA ‘LAME DUCK'” Government officials have wrangled with Drudge before over his alleged false claims. With 2 million daily unique visitors and around 700 million monthly page views, DrudgeReport.com was the top site for referral traffic in 2014 to the Daily Mail, CNN, Fox News, Roll Call, Breitbart, The New York Times, USA Today, Associated Press and other news sites. Its readers were loyal, staying on the site for an average of 30 minutes, Politico reported. * * * One can’t help but wonder, as the ‘fake news’ narrative loses traction, did the government attempt direct (anonymous) censorship? There were also numerous reports of Russian state-run Network RT being unavailable du … |
| There Has Been No Real Rotation From Bonds to Stocks (Video)By EconMatters We enter 2017 flat in all accounts for tax and accounting purposes, and this is the last trading day of 2016, we discuss the Bond to Stock Rotation Myth in this video with our as usual original correct perspective. There is so much Central Bank Money in both Bonds & Stocks; they are both still Asset Bubbles. EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube … |
| Apple To Cut iPhone Production By 10% In The First Quarter Of 2017: NikkeiIf there is one company that wishes 2016 could be as quickly as possible put away in the history books, it was Apple: with the Apple watch now a confirmed dud, the iPhone 7 a bust relative to Apple’s other offerings, demand for Apple’s once brilliant creations waning, and the first recorded declines in both iPhone sales and earnings, 2016 was a year Tim Cook would love to never repeat. Alas, according to Japan’s Nikkei, 2017 is set to begin with a whimper, not a bang, as Apple will trim production of its iPhones by at least 10% in the first quarter of 2017.
The latest disappointing news comes after the company slashed output in January-March 2016 due to accumulated inventory of the iPhone 6s line at the end of 2015. That experience led Apple to curb production of the iPhone 7, introduced in September, by around 20%. But the phones still have sold more sluggishly than expected. Information on production of the latest models and global sales suggests cuts in both the 7 and 7 Plus lines in the coming quarter. The larger iPhone 7 Plus, which features two cameras on its back face, remains popular. But a shortage of camera sensors has curbed Apple’s ability to meet demand for the phones. U.S. research company IDC forecasts global smartphone shipments in 2016 on par with the 2015 level. Even Apple has had difficulty creating appealing new features, stifling demand from customers who otherwise would look to upgrade to the latest device. The Nikkei notes that while Japanese demand for the iPhone 7 line is strong, thanks in part to the phone’s compatibility with contactless IC chip readers, commonly used for services such as payment. Japan makes up just 10% or so of the global smartphone market, and cannot compensate for … |
| Obama Uses Final Weeks To Aggressively “Box In” Trump’s AdministrationNot liking the outcome of the 2016 election, President Obama has apparently made the decision to use his final days in office to do everything possible to “box in” and undermine President-elect Trump. The latest actions, of course, revolve around sanctions on several Russian entities and the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats for “hacking” the election. Unfortunately, that move seemingly backfired this morning when Putin announced that he “will not sink to the level of [Obama’s] ‘kitchen’ diplomacy”…apparently “when the Obama’s go low, Putin goes high”…to paraphrase the First Lady (see “Putin Stunner: ‘We Will Not Expel Anyone; We Refuse To Sink To Obama’s Level'”). Meanwhile, the reckless parting moves against Russian aren’t the only unilateral actions Obama has made in his waning days to undermine the incoming Trump administration. He also allowed the UN Security Council to condemn Israeli settlement activity, permanently banned oil and gas drilling large swaths of the Atlantic and Arctic oceans, closed off 1.6 million acres of Western land to development through the creation of new “national monument” and scrapped the last vestiges of a registration system used largely on Muslim immigrants. We wonder how long America’s liberal snowflakes would spend rioting if similarly aggressive, hostile actions were taken by an outgoing Republican President? Clearly, the unilateral moves and shear contempt for the will of the American people being displayed by the current administration is not sitting well with President-elect Trump.
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| Trump Rally Darkens Skies for All-Weather PortfolioAll-weather and risk-parity portfolios designed to produce smooth returns have hit a rough patch since the U.S. election. |
| Waiting for the Big Post-Christmas SalesIt was surprisingly calm from a pricing standpoint at the retailers Heard on the Street visited two days after Christmas. |
| News at Gilead Is Better but Not GoodA slowing decline in prescriptions is a positive development for the battered biotech |
| Eight Science-backed Judgment Calls People Make After Meeting You
Within moments of meeting people, you decide all sorts of things about them, from status to intelligence to promiscuity. |
| 23 December 2016: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Improvement Continues
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| Chuck Jaffe: 7 mutual funds and ETFs that entered the graveyard in 2016Some 425 mutual funds were liquidated, more than double that of 2015, writes Chuck Jaffe. |
| Currencies: Dollar slips in 2016’s final trading day, but posts big gain against the rubleThe dollar pulls back on the last day of trading for 2017, while the euro remains firmer after spiking mysteriously above $1.05 in Asia trading hours. |
| Why Obama’s ‘We the People’ online petitions were a missed opportunity for U.S. consumersAmericans have been busy over the last five years petitioning the White House. |
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 40th week – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.Earnings Summary for Today
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