Written by Sig Silber
HEADLINES (Updated 4:24 PM EDT) –
– Prolonged heat wave continues across interior sections of the Northwest and Northern Rockies, now extending into the Northern High Plains
– Cold front to bring the chance of severe weather, heavy rain, and flooding to the East
– Flood threat continues from the Ohio Valley to the Desert Southwest
This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.
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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.
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CONUS Focal Points
Short Range Focal Points
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021
Valid 00Z Thu Jul 01 2021 – 00Z Sat Jul 03 2021
…Prolonged heat wave continues across interior sections of the Northwest and Northern Rockies, now extending into the Northern High Plains…
…Cold front to bring the chance of severe weather, heavy rain, and flooding to the East…
…Flood threat continues from the Ohio Valley to the Desert Southwest…
The oppressive heat continues for interior sections of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. While the temperatures are not quite as high as earlier in the week, daily highs still in the upper 90s to lower 100s after the recent extreme heat will be of little relief. Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for eastern Washington and Oregon as well as portions of northern and western Idaho, with Heat Advisories extending into portions of northern Nevada and California.
The upper-level high that has remained over the region will gradually shift to the east throughout the period, bringing the hot temperatures further into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. Daily high temperatures will peak over 100 starting on Thursday, with Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches also in effect for eastern Montana and Heat Advisories in effect along and east of the Northern Rockies.
In the East, a cold front will being to slowly progress to the southeast across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. While this front will bring relief from the hot and particularly muggy past few days, the moist and buoyant airmass will lead to the chance for severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather through this evening for portions of Southern New England as well as a Slight Risk stretching from western Pennsylvania northeast to coastal Maine. The main threat from these storms will be high winds.
There is a Slight Risk in effect for Thursday for eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic as the cold front continues to progress southeastward. High winds will again be the main threat with these storms. In addition to the severe weather, widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front from coastal New England to the Southeast throughout the forecast period. In particular, there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic southwest through the southern Appalachians and into the Tennessee Valley for Thursday. Storms may produce rainfall in excess of 1″ per hour, leading to the risk for flash flooding.
A Marginal Risk is in effect for the Southeast on Friday for rain totals in excess of 1″.
From the Midwest to the Southwest, lingering surface boundaries combined with a moist airmass, as well as the cold front progressing south, will lead to continued chances of rain and thunderstorms along with the risk for flash flooding. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect through Thursday morning stretching from the Ohio Valley west through the Mid-Mississippi valley to southeastern Kansas. Heavy rainfall rates greater than 1″ per hour are possible with any storms.
While the rain may not be as heavy on Thursday, a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall is in effect from the Mid-Mississippi Valley west through Oklahoma and into the Central High Plains due to the saturated soil conditions in place from the prolonged daily rainfall.
Meanwhile, heavy rain will be possible with daily showers and thunderstorms in the Desert Southwest as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Enrique continues northward into the region. A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect for both Wednesday night and Thursday. Rain chances continue into Friday as the cold front stalls along the Southern High Plains, with a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall in effect for most of eastern New Mexico and portions of the western Texas.
Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Great Basin and Central Rockies on Thursday and throughout the forecast period along the Gulf Coast and in Florida.
We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.
When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
Thunderstorm Risk
This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.
The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.
Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.
Day One CONUS Forecast | Day Two CONUS Forecast |
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.
Temperature
A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here
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Day 3 – 7 Hazards
Valid Saturday July 03 2021 – Wednesday July 07 2021
Hazards:
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Sat, Jul 3.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley, Mon-Wed, Jul 5-Jul 7.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Great Lakes.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes.
– Flooding likely across portions of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Sat-Mon, Jul 3-Jul 5.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Northern Plains, Sat-Sun, Jul 3-Jul 4.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies, Sat-Mon, Jul 3-Jul 5.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Rockies, the Northern Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, Sat-Sun, Jul 3-Jul 4.
Detailed Summary:
During the medium range period (Saturday, July 3rd – Wednesday, July 7th) the anomalous ridging that has dominated the upper-level pattern over the western half of the United States will dissipate making way for a more progressive and zonal flow, but it won’t go down without a fight. Daily high temperatures from the Northwest to the Upper Midwest will hover 15 to 20 degrees above average through early next week, with some areas consistently reaching the upper 90s or low 100s.
Lucky for the regions east of the Rockies the upper-level ridge is expected to quickly deteriorate by Monday, allowing temperatures to quickly drop down closer to normal. Due to the ongoing and likely prolonged exposure to oppressively high daytime temperatures in parts of the Columbia Basin, an excessive heat area has been maintained for portions of eastern Washington, northern Oregon, and western Idaho for the first half medium range period. Dangerous heat is also forecast to affect eastern Montana Saturday before moving into the Dakotas on Sunday, where highs are anticipated to approach or reach triple digits. In each of these outlined areas residents are urged to take proper precautions to safeguard their health and prevent the onset of heat-related illness. These precautions include: avoiding long periods of time outdoors in the sun, staying hydrated, remaining in a cool or air conditioned location, and canceling outdoor activities during the heat of the day.
In stark juxtaposition to conditions out West, the South and East are forecast to experience cooler and wetter weather throughout the course of the medium range due to a deep cut-off low aloft and a slow-moving frontal system extending from the Mid-Atlantic through the South to the Southern Plains at the surface. Fueled by moisture from the Gulf of Mexico pooling ahead of the system, this frontal boundary will serve as the primary focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms from the Carolinas to the Southern Rockies throughout the weekend.
The slow progression of the system combined with high rainfall rates from convective precipitation could lead to accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in 24 hours along the East Coast on Saturday. Though the affected coastal areas currently have relatively dry soils and normal streamflow levels, heavy rainfall from the previous day could erode these conditions enough to facilitate isolated flash flooding. Pushed ahead by high pressure settling over the Midwest, the frontal system is expected to creep towards the Gulf Coast on Sunday before dissipating on Monday.
Early next week, an upper-low sitting over Texas is forecast to work in tandem with a low pressure wave over the Sierra Madre to drive very moist air in the western Gulf of Mexico onshore. As this moist air interacts with shortwave energy at the surface, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over western Louisiana and southern Texas, where heavy rainfall could lead to two-day accumulations of 3 to 4 inches. Taking into account the highly saturated soils and much above normal streamflow in these areas from recent anomalously high amounts of rain, the risk of widespread flash flooding will be a significant concern.
Elsewhere, a long frontal boundary is forecast to drape over the north-central part of the country throughout much of the medium range period, extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. Though precipitation along the boundary is expected to remain relatively light, models suggest that heavy rain could develop in the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At present, the models disagree as to where the heaviest rain will fall and how much, but the timing is consistent. Given the long lead time and the potential for the forecast to change over the course of the week no hazard area has been drawn, however, this region will be watched in the coming days for further development.
No hazards have been posted for Alaska, however, it is worth noting that multiple frontal systems are forecast to pass over the mainland throughout the period that may produce localized heavy rainfall. While individual models suggest that accumulations in some areas could approach or even slightly exceed the hazardous threshold of 1.5 inches in 24 hours, there is no general consensus as to where, how much, and if any rain will fall. Due to the high degree of uncertainty present in the guidance no area was highlighted on today’s graphic.
(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together. |
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.
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Ski Snow Reports
We will resume snow coverage in the Fall
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Drought Coverage
We include drought information in this section.
More information can be found here.
June Drought Outlook.
Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021
Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.
Latest Seasonal Assessment – Hot, dry weather continued to exacerbate drought conditions across the West, where close to 90 percent of the Western Climate Region is currently experiencing drought conditions, and more than 50 percent of the region is experiencing severe to exceptional drought. Abnormally warm conditions also promoted drought expansion across the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest in the last 30 days. In contrast, copious rainfall and below average temperatures eased drought conditions across much of Texas and parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, pockets of drought have persisted in southern Florida, the mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas, while drought continued to expand across northern New England, highlighted by much below normal streamflows. During the upcoming three months, little relief is anticipated across California and the Great Basin, where much of the region is in its dry season and abnormal warmth is favored to persist. Monsoon convection may bring localized relief to parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico, while below-average precipitation favored for the Northwest CONUS may promote continued drought development. The forecast is more uncertain across the Great Plains and Midwest, where summer convection may ease drought locally, but is unlikely to overturn the longer term drought conditions. Drought development is possible in climatologically drier portions of the north-central High Plains. Along the Eastern Seaboard, the CPC seasonal outlook indicates enhanced chances for above-median rainfall, which would help ease the remaining drought conditions. No drought development is anticipated in Alaska, while forecasts for below-average dry season rainfall across Hawaii favor continued drought expansion. The onset of the summer wet season favors continued drought reduction in Puerto Rico.
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Tropical Events
Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
The Eastern Pacific
The Central Pacific
Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.
And the Western Pacific
Weekly Tropical Forecast
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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
And then Precipitation
For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here. |
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Mesoscale Events
The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.
Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.
This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.
There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps
The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.
The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.
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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report
This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.
500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
Day 3 Above, 6 Below | Day 4 Above,7 Below | Day 5 Above. |
Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7
Looking ahead to next week.
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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings
Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below. |
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Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.
Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event. | These maps are updated as risks are identified. |
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page. | |
Convective Outlooks | |
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This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent. | Thunderstorm Outlook |
Fire Weather Outlooks | |
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Day 3-8 Outlook |