Written by Sig Silber
HEADLINES (Updated 4:01 PM EDT) –
– Record-breaking heat found across the western United States to spread into the Northern Plains by Thursday
– Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over west-central Texas through Thursday morning
– Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday morning
This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.
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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.
Readers can scan through this article or jump to where they want to go via the links to the right. To get back to the Directory, hit the back arrow at the top of the URL bar on your screen. But in many cases, one of my Editors has graciously inserted a Return to Directory link to click so that is even easier. This is so high tech that I hardly believe it. |
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CONUS Focal Points
Short Range Focal Points
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 351 PM EDT Wed Jun 02 2021
Valid 00Z Thu Jun 03 2021 – 00Z Sat Jun 05 2021
…Record-breaking heat found across the western United States to spread into the Northern Plains by Thursday…
…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over west-central Texas through Thursday morning; there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday morning…
Strong upper-level ridging over the western U.S. will produce record-breaking heat from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures will reach the upper-90s and triple digits across a broad spanning region from the Desert Southwest to the Northern High Plains. The largest temperature anomalies across the interior sections of the Pacific Northwest, where high temperatures will be near 30 degrees above the average high for this time of year. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories stretch from Southern California to Northern Washington and Idaho. Extreme heat in these locations will significantly increase the potential for heat-related illnesses.
Additionally, much of the Southwest and West are experiencing severe to exceptional drought conditions, contributing to the current heatwave. A weak cold front is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest by Thursday evening and offer some relief, along with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. As the upper-level ridge slowly slides eastward, well above average temperatures will spread into the Northern Plains by Friday. Upper-level energy over the Southern High Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms may interrupt outdoor activities both Wednesday and Thursday.
The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over west-central Texas through Thursday morning. The main hazards associated with the severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, and hail. The severe thunderstorm threat shifts to the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday morning as a weak area of low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley swings northeast into the Lower Great Lakes by Thursday.
Meanwhile, an associated warm front to its east will lift northward and usher in warm and humid air to nearly the East Coast. Thunderstorms will also form along a slow-moving cold front trailing the system from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to southern Texas.
We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.
When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
Thunderstorm Risk
This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.
The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.
Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.
Day One CONUS Forecast | Day Two CONUS Forecast |
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These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
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During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.
Temperature
A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here
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Day 3 – 7 Hazards
Valid Saturday June 05 2021 – Wednesday June 09 2021
Hazards:
– Flooding possible across portions of the Central/Southern Plains.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southern Plains.
– Flooding likely across portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Great Basin.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, Sat-Tue, Jun 5-Jun 8.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of California and the Northern/Central Great Basin, Sat-Sun, Jun 5-Jun 6.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central Rockies, the Northern/Central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Upper Great Lakes, Sat-Wed, Jun 5-Jun 9.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast and the Central Appalachians, Sun-Wed, Jun 6-Jun 9.
Detailed Summary:
During the medium range period (Saturday, June 5th – Wednesday, June 9th), an upper level cut-off low positioned over the Southern Plains will be the main driving force behind the very active weather forecast for the region. Throughout the weekend and into early next week, moist return flow off the Gulf of Mexico interacting with a stationary boundary will help to enhance instability at the surface over Texas and Louisiana, priming the atmosphere for the development of multiple rounds of convective precipitation. Rainfall totals up to and, in isolated areas, exceeding 2 inches in 24 hours have been forecast for much of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana Saturday and Sunday.
As the upper level low tracks to the northeast early next week, the heavy rainfall is forecast to extend northward through eastern Texas on Monday where widespread accumulations of 1 to 2+ inches will be likely. By Tuesday, isolated areas along the Oklahoma/Arkansas, Oklahoma/Texas, and Texas/Louisiana borders are expected to have the greatest chance of heavy rainfall exceeding 1 inch. With the soils heavily saturated in each of these affected locations due to recent above average rainfall, the potential for flash flooding associated with these heavy rain events will be a significant concern.
Temperature wise, portions of the western US and an appreciable amount of the Northern Tier will experience much above normal temperatures this weekend and into early next week. Upper level high pressure positioned over the western half of the country will allow daily high temperatures throughout the Intermountain West, Northern Rockies, and the Northern Plains to soar into the 90s and near 100 on Saturday, 15 to 25 degrees warmer than normal. Though a descending upper level trough will moderate temperatures out west after Sunday, the anomalously warm weather is forecast to continue in the Rockies, Plains, and Upper Midwest throughout the remainder of the period.
Another area of upper level high pressure is expected to develop over the eastern US on Sunday which will help spread the heat to the Northeast and Central Appalachians where daily highs will likely reach the 80s and, in some areas, the low 90s.
Though no hazards have been posted for Alaska, two precipitation events occurring within the medium range period are worth mentioning. The first event is some marginally heavy rainfall over the southwestern portion of the state that is expected to develop Sunday into Monday ahead of a warm front over the Bering Strait. While the current guidance indicates some heavy precipitation with 1 to 1.5 inch rain totals is possible, the models cannot agree as to whether this would occur over the upper Alaskan Peninsula or the southwestern Mainland. Due to the lack of agreement among the models and the fact that these two locations have different thresholds for what is considered hazardous precipitation it was decided that no hazard area would be drawn today.
A second event over the southeastern Mainland later in the period has also been decidedly left off of today’s graphic because, according to the most recent deterministic model guidance, storm total rainfall may fall short of the hazardous threshold. Seeing that either of these events could become hazardous as the forecast evolves, they will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Finally, it is worth noting that daily high temperatures across the state will hover between 5 and 15 degrees below normal throughout the period.
(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together. |
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.
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Ski Snow Reports
New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.
Snow Forecasts.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here.
We also include drought information in this section.
More information can be found here.
June Drought Outlook.
Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021
Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.
Latest Seasonal Assessment – Drought improved across parts of Texas, northeastern Colorado, central Wyoming and the Northeast in the past month due to heavy rainfall, while drought developed or intensified in many parts of California, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, Northern Rockies, and the Carolinas due to increasing precipitation deficits. Drought persistence or development is favored for most of the West and High Plains, based on elevated probabilities of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for June-July-August. Drought removal or improvement is expected across east-central Texas along with most of Oklahoma due to heavy recent rainfall and additional heavy rainfall forecast for the rest of May.Lack of a rainfall signal from monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks supports drought persistence across the Midwest. The Great Plains and Corn Belt will be closely monitored in the monthly drought outlooks through the summer. The wet monthly and seasonal outlooks along with the onset of the convective season strongly support removal across the small drought areas in southern Florida. The persistence forecast for the Northeast is based on a weak rainfall signal and likelihood of above normal temperatures during June-July-August along with a favorable time for soil moisture discharge.
Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free through the end of August. Drought is favored to persist across Puerto Rico during the next few months. Drought development and persistence is forecast across the leeward sides of the Hawaiian Islands.
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Tropical Events
I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.
| the Central Pacific. | the Eastern Pacific | the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico |
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Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
NA
The Eastern Pacific
The Central Pacific
NA
Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.
And the Western Pacific
Weekly Tropical Forecast
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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
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And then Precipitation
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For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here. |
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Mesoscale Events
The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.
Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.
This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.
There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps
The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.
The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.
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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report
This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.
500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
| Day 3 Above, 6 Below | Day 4 Above,7 Below | Day 5 Above. |
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Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7
Looking ahead to next week.
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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings
| Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below. |
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Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.
Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.
| Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event. | These maps are updated as risks are identified. |
| This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page. |  |
| Convective Outlooks | |
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| This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online. | Today’s Outlook |
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| This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
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| This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
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| This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
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| The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent. | Thunderstorm Outlook |
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| Fire Weather Outlooks | |
| This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Today’s Outlook |
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| This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
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| This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Day 3-8 Outlook |
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