February 7, 2020 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Almost No Drought

Written by Sig Silber

The drought situation remains stable. We have two feature reports tonight. One is the NASS Executive Briefing on Cattle Sheep and Goats and the other is the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service Brief on Ukraine Sown Area for 2020/2021 Winter Crops and Early Season Conditions. And of course, we have our full set of regular weekly reports and, since we are now publishing on Fridays, our intermediate-term weather forecast covers 28 days and the first 14 days of the forecast updates automatically daily – so you can check it each day.

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Directory

A different look at Drought – Snow Drought

Cattle, Sheep and Goat Report

Let’s look at the Ukraine Winter Seeding. I provided a link last time and now I will show the exhibits. Note that for most purposes, USDA considers the Crimea part of Ukraine.

Current Drought Conditions

Now we take a look at Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

United States and Puerto Rico

U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Below is the map for just CONUS.

Last Week	This Week

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the level of drought has been raised. The green is where the level of drought has been lowered.

Mixed in Colorado and a bit of improvement in Kansas

No Change

No Change

Mixed but wetter near the GOM and drier further north and west.

Southern Florida wet and some degradation in Northern Florida and across the border and some improvement in Eastern North Carolina.

Mostly improvement along the Northern Tier and but wet in the west and mixed to the east.

Here is the Discussion that was issued with the Drought Report. The Regional Headings can be clicked on to obtain maps and statistics.

This Week’s Drought Summary

Most areas of dryness and drought received little precipitation this past week. Where there was significant precipitation, some improvement was noted, particularly in the Northwest where surplus precipitation fell during the previous 3 to 4 weeks. Moderate to heavy rains also brought improvement to southern Florida and patches of eastern North Carolina. Meanwhile, precipitation was patchy from the central Gulf Coast across eastern Texas to the Red River Valley (south), bringing a mixed bag of improvements and deterioration there. But across the dry regions in California, the Four Corners States, central and southern Texas, and northern Florida, only a few tenths of an inch of precipitation was recorded at best. Some areas of deterioration were noted in these areas, but most areas remained unchanged from last week.

Northeast

Little precipitation fell on the Delmarva Peninsula, and the area of abnormal dryness remained the same as last week. Some short-term precipitation deficits have developed in some areas of New England, but given the time of year and lack of impacts, no new dry areas were introduced.

Southeast

Areas of abnormal dryness cover significant swaths of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, the Florida Peninsula and adjacent Georgia, and the Carolinas Coast. Drought (D1), however, is restricted to part of the eastern Florida Panhandle. Generally 1 to 2 inches of rain fell across southern Florida and a few spots in the eastern Carolinas, ending dryness there. Light to locally moderate rains kept conditions essentially unchanged in most of the Carolinas, southwestern Alabama, and the central Florida Peninsula, but light rain at most was recorded in southern Georgia and across the dry area where Florida’s Panhandle and Peninsula intersect. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought were expanded slightly there in response to increased precipitation deficits. The abnormally dry area is mostly 2.5 to 5.0 inches below normal for the last 60 days, and 3-month deficits of 5 to 7 inches cover the area of moderate drought.

South

Areas of abnormal dryness cover much of coastal Mississippi and Louisiana, far western Louisiana, and southwestern Arkansas. Similar conditions have been observed in part of the Red River Valley and adjacent southwestern Oklahoma, with an embedded area of moderate drought observed there. Most significantly, a large area of generally moderate to severe drought extends across much of eastern, central, and southern Texas, with a few patches of extreme (D3) drought in southwestern Texas. Patchy light to moderate precipitation brought improvement to isolated areas in Mississippi, Louisiana, eastern Texas, and the Red River Valley, but most of these regions remained unchanged. In contrast, precipitation totaled less than 0.2 inch in central and southern Texas, bringing drought intensification to several areas there, though most locales remained unchanged from last week. In eastern Texas, precipitation totaled 5 to 8 inches below normal for the past 90 days, and in much of southwestern Texas, only 10 to less than 50 percent of normal has been measured since early December 2019.

Midwest

Surplus precipitation has dominated this region for many months now in areas north and west of Indiana. Lesser amounts have been observed from there eastward through Ohio, but really not close to D0 threshold. From the Great Lakes to the northern half of the Mississippi, precipitation surpluses of 9 to locally over 18 inches for the last 6 months are fairly common, and amounts accumulated since at least early 2018 are well above normal in most places.

High Plains

It was a dry week across most of the High Plains, with light to moderate precipitation limited to south-central Kansas and central through northern sections of Wyoming. As a result, there was some reduction in the extent of D0 and D1 in south-central Kansas, and D0 coverage was reduced a bit in northern and western Wyoming, Snowpack has improved in the state, with most sites in western areas reporting near to slightly below normal amounts for this time of year. Snow water equivalent in the reconfigured D0 areas, however, were measured in the 10th to 30th percentile at several sites, though most were a little closer to normal. In the large area of D0 to D2 from southern Wyoming through Colorado and a small part of adjacent Kansas, the dry week kept conditions unchanged.

West

Moderate to heavy precipitation fell on western parts of Washington and Oregon, and across the northern Intermountain West, particularly in Idaho and adjacent areas. But most of the West Region was dry, with only a few sites recording up to 0.25 inch across the interior valleys of Washington and Oregon, the entireties of New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada, and all but extreme northwestern California. Despite the dry week, no dryness or drought intensification seemed warranted, and the D0 to D2 areas remained as they were the prior week. The wetter conditions farther north prompted some D0 and D1 reductions, especially where 30-day precipitation totals were substantial (12 inches plus in northwestern Oregon and western Washington; 4 to 8 inches in south-central Idaho and northwestern Montana; 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher totals across the Idaho Panhandle). Lesser amounts fell on most of western Montana, but snowpack increased enough to remove D0 from almost all of that area despite numerous locations reporting 90-day precipitation totals in the 5th to 20th percentile. This area will be monitored closely for re-development, but no substantial impacts are reported at this time

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

Moderate to heavy rain wiped out the small areas of D0 in east-central and southwestern Puerto Rico, but conditions have dried out farther north and west, introducing D0 into northwestern parts of the Commonwealth. Six-month rainfall totals were 2 to locally 4 inches below normal (or approximately 50 to 75 percent of normal) there.

Conditions continued to slowly improve across parts of Hawaii, based primarily on agricultural reports and indexes. D0 was removed from the northern Big Island, and former D1 to D2 conditions improved in some areas farther west.

It was a relatively non-descript week in the Alaska Panhandle, keeping the D0 area unchanged.

Pacific Islands

December and January were quite wet, with rainfall at Pago Pago, Suifaga Ridge, and Toa Ridge exceeding 10 inches both months. Rainfall this week at each station was less than 2 inches, though each station recorded at least an inch of rain. Therefore, drought-free conditions continued here.

Conditions degraded from abnormal dryness to moderate drought on Palau. Both December and January missed their monthly minimums with 6.48 and 1.87 inches of rain, respectively, and this week (0.72 inches) marked the sixth consecutive week when rainfall missed the weekly minimum.

Short-term abnormal dryness continued on Yap this week, as January rainfall there was a paltry 1.46 inches. However, this week Yap received 2.38 inches of rain, keeping degradation to moderate drought at bay. January rainfall on Ulithi totaled 9.24 inches, though most of this rain fell in one week, and most weeks during the month had well below weekly minimum rainfall. However, this week 2.33 inches of rain fell, and drought-free conditions continued there. On Woleai, short-term abnormal dryness continued as 1.24 inches of rain fell in January, and only 0.12 inches fell this week. At Chuuk, 2.45 inches of rain fell this week, so drought-free conditions continued there. At Lukunor, 2.37 inches of rain fell this week, though January only had 2.26 inches of rainfall, and most recent weeks received less than an inch of rain, so short-term abnormal dryness continued there. At Nukuoro, 17.22 inches of rain fell in January, so despite the only 1.65 inches that fell this week, drought-free conditions continued. At Kapingamarangi, short-term dryness developed, as the rainfall in December and January both were below 8 inches, and the last 3 weeks of weekly rainfall were less than two inches. On Pohnpei, 7.53 inches of rain fell in January, but the last two weeks have both exceeded two inches of rain, so drought-free conditions continued there. Drought-free conditions also continued on Pingelap, where each of the last two weeks exceeded two inches of rainfall, and on Kosrae, where this week’s rainfall only reached 1.11 inches, but January rainfall totaled 8.50 inches.

On Kwajalein, short-term moderate drought developed as only 0.31 inches of rain fell this week, and December and January both fell well short of 8 inches of rain. Short-term dryness on Ailinglapalap continued as little rain fell there this week, and December and January both received less than 8 inches of rain. On Jaluit, December and January rainfall fell below 8 inches of rain, and a paltry 0.08 inches of rain fell this week, so short-term abnormal dryness continued there. Short-term moderate drought developed on Utirik, where only 0.02 inches of rain fell this week, and both December and January received well below 8 inches of rainfall. Short-term drought continued on Wotje, where through 6 days, no rain had fallen this week. Short-term dryness also continued on Majuro, where 0.52 inches of rain fell this week. Only 0.57 inches of rain fell on Mili this week, but 7.43 inches fell last week, so drought-free conditions continued.

Short-term abnormal dryness was occurring on Saipan, Rota, and Guam this week. December and January on Guam both received below four inches of rain, but the last two weeks have received 1.02 and 3.49 inches of rainfall, respectively. 4.47 inches of rain fell on Rota this week, and 1.26 inches fell on Saipan, but recent rainfall deficits still exist in December and January, so short-term abnormal dryness continues.

Virgin Islands

On St. John this week, normal conditions continued, as groundwater has increased and above normal precipitation has taken place this month. On St. Thomas, precipitation has been above or near normal over the past several months. Meanwhile, long-term drought continued on St. Croix this week, where groundwater has leveled off recently after above normal precipitation over the last month, though long-term precipitation deficits remain.

Looking Ahead

During the next 5 days (February 6 to 10), heavy precipitation and above-normal temperatures are expected from the central Gulf Coast northeastward through the middle Atlantic states. Amounts may reach 3 to 6 inches from the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coasts northeastward through the southern half of the Appalachians, the interior Carolinas, and the Delmarva Peninsula. Totals exceeding an inch could reach as far east as the southern Atlantic Coast, and as far west as the Ohio River and the Northeast. Farther west, moderate to heavy precipitation is expected from the higher elevations of the northern Intermountain West southeastward through the central Rockies. Generally 2 to 4 inches are expected in far northeastern Oregon through much of the Idaho Panhandle, and 1.5 to 2.5 inches are forecast for the higher peaks from western Montana through central Colorado. In addition, heavy precipitation is expected in the climatologically-wet windward areas of the Pacific Northwest. Some areas along the coast and on the west side of the Cascades should get 3 to 7 inches of precipitation. Elsehwere, only light to moderate precipitation (up to 0.75 inch) is expected in eastern Texas and adjacent locales, with only a few tenths of an inch at best in other areas of dryness and drought (particularly California, the lower elevations of the central Rockies, and the southern Rockies). Daily minimum temperatures should be above normal across much of the country, even as daily highs average near to below normal across the Rockies and Plains. Temperatures on the whole should average 6 to 9 degrees above normal in the middle Atlantic states and Southeast, but closer to normal from New England and the Appalachians westward

The CPC extended range forecast for the ensuing 5 days (February 10 to 14) shows odds favoring above-normal precipitation for most of the country save for most of Florida, the Far West from central California northward, and the Alaska Panhandle, where most areas have enhanced chances for subnormal precipitation. Meanwhile, the West and the East should experience opposite extremes of temperature, divided by a swath from western Texas, the middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes. There is high forecast confidence in this pattern. Odds for unusually warm weather reach 80 to 90 percent in the Southeast while chances for subnormal temperatures are 70 to 80 percent from roughly the Rockies westward. Colder than normal conditions are anticipated in the Alaskan Panhandle, through with less confidence than in western areas of the contiguous states.

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And then Precipitation

Here is the discussion that was released with the Week 3 – 4 forecast today.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 22 2020-Fri Mar 06 2020

The tropics are relatively quiet right now. There is no strong MJO, although there are indications that it will strengthen during the next week. The GFS is the most bullish of the models, predicting an especially strong MJO over the Maritime Continent/West Pacific by Week-2, but all of our other guidance suggests a more muted event. We relied primarily on dynamical guidance since there is a lack of strong tropical forcing to base the Week 3/4 forecast on.

The ECMWF and JMA models are in agreement for the Week 3/4 forecast, while the CFS is almost exactly out of phase with the others over North America. The ECMWF and JMA solutions feature anomalous ridging over the North Pacific and southeastern U.S., with the strongest anomalous troughing contained to eastern Canada. Both of these solutions suggest a +NAO pattern and the JMA is a bit stronger than the ECMWF. The CFS’s solution has a similar height pattern over the North Pacific, but its positive anomalies extend further east and cover much of the western U.S. It also forecasts an anomalous trough over the eastern U.S. The SubX multimodel ensemble is very similar to the ECMWF and JMA solutions.

Today’s forecast relies more heavily on the ECMWF/JMA/SubX solutions than the CFS. Above normal temperatures are forecast over Alaska, with the highest probabilities of 55-60% concentrated over the eastern two-thirds of the state. Above normal temperatures are also forecast over the Southeast; the highest probabilities (60-65%) are centered over the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida. Below normal temperatures are forecast across the Northern Tier, northern West Coast, and New England.

The precipitation forecast also follows the ECMWf/JMA/SubX models pretty closely. Above normal precipitation is forecast for most of Alaska, but the highest probabilities (55-60%) are centered over the western two-thirds of the state. There are indications that the Panhandle will be drier than normal, but probabilities are only skewed slightly, 50-55%. There is also a 50-60% chance of below normal precipitation throughout the Pacific Northwest and the southern tip of Florida. There is good model agreement that storm track activity will be high throughout parts of the Southeast, but there is quite a bit of spatial variability among the models. Therefore, we have posted a fairly broad area with a 50-60% chance of above normal precipitation over much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

SSTs around Hawaii are 1-2 degrees C above normal and there are no large-scale tropical disturbances likely to change this during the next month. Therefore, our forecast favors above normal temperatures throughout the state. There are indications in the models of above normal rainfall, specifically during Week-3, and probabilities have been adjusted accordingly.

Some may find the below way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Let’s focus on the change between January 7, 2020, and February 4, 2020, i.e. one month.

Focusing on the Intermountain West

Drought Forecasts

These two forecasts (Monthly and Season) are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here.

Here is the Monthly Drought Outlook which was updated on January 31, 2020.

Here is the full discussion that was issued with the updated drought forecast.

Discussion for the Monthly Drought Outlook

Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, and February Climatology. Initial conditions are based on the January 28, 2020 U.S. Drought Monitor. ENSO-neutral conditions are present, and are favored through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (60% chance) and continuing through summer 2020 (50% chance).

The Northeast region is currently drought free. There are some pockets of dryness at 30-, 60-, and 90-days, but at 4-months, precipitation across most of the Northeast is at or above-normal. There was only a small D0 area on the Delmarva Peninsula which had missed out on recent heavy precipitation events, but with moderate totals predicted on the 7-day QPF, above-normal precipitation odds in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day ERFs, EC (eastern) to above-normal (western) totals on the Week 3-4, and EC (New England) to above-normal (mid-Atlantic) precipitation on the updated February 2020 LLF, no new development is expected through February 29.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast.

Abnormal dryness recently developed along the coasts of South and North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, along with D0 in western Florida and southwest Alabama. A small D1 area remained in northwest Florida near Apalachicola. But like the Northeast and even more so, the 7-day QPF is quite wet across the Southeast (including 3-4″ over the D1 area and parts of Georgia and the Carolinas), along with good odds for above-normal precipitation in the 6-10 and 8-14 day ERFs, the Week 3-4, and updated February 2020 precipitation LLF. Similar to the Northeast, this wet forecast during February favors removal of the D1 in northwest Florida, and no new development.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast.

The forecast for the South is somewhat perplexing. The SDO [FMA’20] made 2 weeks ago showed improvement for the southern Plains, and some USDM improvement was made in central, northern, and eastern sections of Texas, but some deterioration occurred in southern sections. The February outlooks are a mixed bag, with dryness early in the period (QPF and 6-10 day ERF), but then above-normal rain odds in the 8-14 day ERF (entire region), Week 3-4 (eastern areas), and updated 1-month LLF (southeast areas). Plus, subnormal precipitation is favored in western Texas in the Week 3-4. But since most of northern and central Texas recently received rain and drought improvement, it should take a while for these recently improved Texas areas to deteriorate in the cooler February air and somewhat dry February climatology. Thus, with the favorable February storm track and available Gulf moisture expected for southern and eastern Texas, improvements were depicted there. Further north in Oklahoma and Kansas, the two small drought areas should persist as recent precipitation shrunk these areas, but February forecasts are mostly dry.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the South.

There was no drought or D0 in the Midwestern States, and the last 30-and 60-days saw surplus precipitation across the Midwest. Some 90-day deficits remained in parts of northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and northern sections of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, but the recent precipitation eliminated any previous D0 there. Although the short-term forecast is mostly dry (QPF), both ERFs and Week 3-4 favor EC to above-normal precipitation, although the updated 1-month LLF tilts the odds toward subnormal precipitation over Missouri, southern Iowa, Illinois, and western Indiana. Even so, with the colder winter temperatures, lack of evaporation and crop growth, frozen and snow-covered ground (northern areas), and no reported impacts, no development is expected during February.

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest.

With the exception of some D0 and drought in western Kansas, parts of Colorado, and western Wyoming, the High Plains has observed surplus to excessive precipitation, especially the Dakotas. And with many northern locations under snow cover, frozen ground, and having a dry February climatology, this also favors no development. Farther south, recent precipitation has fallen on parts of the central Plains, easing drought in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado. With good chances for above-normal precipitation in the northern Plains (updated 1-month LLF, QPF, both ERFs, and Week 3-4) and somewhat lower odds in the central High Plains, no development is expected for this region. It is possible that some slight improvement may occur in the central Rockies based upon both ERFs, but the other forecast periods are not confident enough (EC) to draw for this.

Forecast confidence is high for the northern High Plains; moderate for the central High Plains.

With high pressure expected off the California coast for much of February, the updated February 2020 LLFs favored subnormal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for much of California and Nevada. The ERFs and Week 3-4 keep it dry, but with near to below-normal temperatures. However, with a more northerly Pacific storm track, moisture should funnel into Washington early in the month, then weaken later in February. This may be enough precipitation for improvement in northern Washington. During the past 30-days, surplus precipitation has fallen on the Northwest, improving WYTD basin average precipitation and Snow Water Content (SWC) after a rather dry November and December. In contrast, the Southwest was wet during Nov-Dec 2019, but very dry during the past 30-days. In-between the Northwest and Southwest (e.g. southern Oregon and northern California), dry weather occurred during Nov’19 and Jan’20, and normal precipitation during Dec’19. As a result, WYTD SNOTEL basin average precipitation is close to normal (between 90-110%) in most western basins, although drier (60-80%) in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada. But since it was relatively cold during OND’19, more of the precipitation fell as snow and built up the snowpack, leading to Jan. 29 SWC basin averages at or above normal in much of the West, except lower in the Sierra Nevada and central Idaho.

Based upon the forecasts and current conditions, development is possible south of the 2 drought areas in WA/OR and Idaho where it has been drier than surrounding areas since November, and is now in D0. In California, even though the February forecasts are for dry and mild conditions, there is still March and April remaining in the wet season that could overcome any dryness in February. So drought development is possible in California, but more-likely to occur in March or April when the wet season starts winding down. Fortunately, the major California reservoirs are in good shape. In the Four Corners region, the February outlooks were a mixed bag (mostly EC), and with a wet ND’19 and dry Jan’20, no clear February signal was there, so persistence was forecast.

Forecast confidence for the West is moderate.

All drought (D1 or drier) was recently removed from Alaska and Puerto Rico with wetter conditions, and with most February forecasts (except the Week 3-4) expected to favor above-normal precipitation (Alaska) or EC (Puerto Rico), no development was made. In Hawaii, the rainy season has been quite wet leading to recent improvements in the islands, and that pattern is expected to continue during February, with additional improvements expected.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska; moderate to high for Hawaii and Puerto Rico.

Here is the Three-Month Forecast which was issued on January 16, 2020

Floods

Floods remain a concern.

Last Week	Current Week

Wildfires

Current Wildfire Risk. This is a new model that updates daily by NOAA (but not automatically in this article) to show the short-term risk.

Click here to update. Red is high risk, blue is low risk. This graphic updates daily but you have to click on the link provided to get the updates More information can be found here.

This explains the model a bit.

The below graphics will update automatically on February 1 or so. So ignore the commentary for the time being. We will update it shortly.

Looking out another month.

Crop and Animal Husbandry Progress (We are not updating that this week)

International

A map helps and is not always available and unfortunately, it was not available this week.

Major Sources of Information

In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

Background Information

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln