Written by Sig Silber
We have Typhoon Chaba threatening Japan and Hurricane Matthew threatening the Western Antilles and points north and the cool ENSO Event is showing some life. Fear of drought is likely to be replaced by fear of drowning. Global Warming is more often about wet not dry.
It is kind of like money where PQ = MV. With Warming, E – P over Oceans must other than change in atmospheric inventory equal P – E over Land. It is an identity. This information can be found in the IPCC Reports. Again, like economics, there is an ocean – land water-trade balance. It is driven not by currency exchange rates but by the rotation of the Planet. If the days start to get longer than 24 hours, we have big problems.
Matthew and Chaba
It may not necessarily be Global Warming but warm oceans make for lots of clouds.
Reposting from Jeff Masters and Bob Henson’s Wunderblog Update
I will probably update this as they update theirs as it does not auto-update.
But you can go here and find the updates yourself.
THIS IS SERIOUS FOR OKINAWA, HAITI, EASTERN CUBA, THE BAHAMAS AND POSSIBLY CAPE HATTERAS. BEST NOT TO BE THERE. TOO LATE RE OKINAWA BUT THOSE IN JAPAN NEED TO BE ON ALERT ALSO.
Here is the latest track information for Hurricane Matthew and it will auto-update.
Additional information on Hurricane Matthew can be obtained by clicking here.
Map courtesy of Kmusser and Wikipedia
NOAA Update of their October Outlook
NOAA has, as usual, issued an update for the month following the last day of the prior month. This update was issued on September 30 and we will discuss that first by comparing the Updated Outlook to the Early Outlook issued on September 15.
Temperature
Prior Outlook Issued on September 15, 2016
Updated Temperature Outlook Issued on September 30, 2016
Precipitation
Prior Early Outlook Issued on September 15, 2016
Updated Precipitation Outlook Issued on September 30, 2016
Below is the discussion issued with this update.
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCTOBER 2016
THE OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE UPDATED PRIMARILY BASED ON SHORT, MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS MID-SEPTEMBER OUTLOOK.
ON AVERAGE, FORECAST RIDGING WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES AND MEAN ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE MONTH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA CONTRIBUTES TO FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE LOCATED IN PROXIMITY TO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE SHORT-, MEDIUM- AND EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CFS MONTH LONG FORECASTS PERSIST THIS SIGNAL IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.
EARLY IN THE MONTH, A TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST ADDING SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST OF MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE AREA DEPICTED WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. WEEK 3-4 MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEST COAST AND AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN CONUS SO WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY REMAIN IN THESE AREAS. WEEK 3-4 MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE MONTHLY CFS FORECAST. [Editor’s note: This totally disagrees with the 3-4 Week Outlook issued the same day on September 30 so one wonders about this. Was NOAA working from the prior run of the 3 – 4 week Outlook?]
ANTICIPATED MEAN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN NEARBY WATERS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF ALASKA. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED IN THE WHITE REGIONS LABELED WITH EC.
THE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE ORIGINAL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND SHIFTED NORTH AND WEST IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK AS THIS IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH ANTICIPATED MEAN TROUGHING AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. EARLY IN THE MONTH, A TROUGH IS FAVORED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CONUS AND SUPPORT PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SO ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE NOW INDICATED FOR SOME AREAS IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK. THE CFS MONTHLY FORECAST INDICATES MODESTLY HIGH PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER AS A WHOLE AS WELL.
ANTICIPATED MEAN RIDGING AND ALL INDICATIONS FROM SHORT, MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST DURING THE MONTH SO THIS AREA REMAINS AND IS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IN THE FORECAST UPDATE. A SUBSTANTIAL WILDCARD IN THE OUTLOOK IS THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE MATTHEW AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT TO AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TRACK OF MATTHEW DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. LATEST FORECASTS KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FORECAST SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE PERIOD. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, BELOW OR NEAR MEDIAN MONTHLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED IN THE WHITE REGIONS LABELED WITH EC.
Sometimes it is useful to compare the present month outlook to the three-month outlook
October plus October – December Outlook
One can mentally subtract the October Outlook from the three-month Outlook and create the Outlook for the last two months in the three-month period namely November and December 2016. If one does that you might conclude that:
One has to keep in mind that we are now subtracting an October Map issued on September 30 from a September 15 three-month map so it is less reliable than the exercise we went through two weeks ago. We are assuming that the three-month outlook issued on September 15 would not change if it was released today. The results in the box above might be an indication of how November and December will differ from the three-month outlook or it might alternatively indicate how the three-month outlook might be modified if issued today. So the discussion in the paragraph above this may be overruled by a conclusion that the three-month outlook is no longer correct and October is a better predictor of the three-month outlook than the three-month maps issued on September 15. I suspect that is the case.
A. Focus on Alaska and CONUS (all U.S. except Hawaii) – Let’s Focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.
First, this graphic provides a good indication of where the moisture is. It is a bit different than just moisture imagery as it is quantitative.
Image credit:Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps/UCSD. More explanation can be found at Atmospheric Rivers (Click to read full Weather Underground Dr. Bob Henson article)
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below.
The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.
U.S. 3 Day to 7 Day Forecasts
I have changed things up a bit and the below is a Day 3 Forecast not the Day 6 Forecast I usually present. It highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 3 (the Day 6 forecast can be found here.
You can enlarge the below daily (days 3 – 7) weather maps for CONUS only by clicking on Three Day or Four Day or Five Day or Six Day or Seven Day
Here is the seven day precipitation forecast. More information is available here.
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients.This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Because “Thickness Lines” are shown by those green lines on this graphic, it is a good place to define “Thickness” and its uses. The 540 Level general signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations. I am leaving this explanation in the report but it may not be very significant until we begin to see 540 levels. So snow is likely now only in the mountains.
The graphic below is the Eastern Pacific a 24 hr loop of recent readings. It does a good job of showing what is going on right now. The southwest winds approaching Baja California are of some interest.
The graphic below (which is a bit redundant with the above) updates automatically so it most likely will look different by the time you look at it as the weather patterns, except for the Southwest Monsoon, are moving from west to east. It highlights the tropical activity. Unlike the above which shows recent history, the below graphic is a satellite image with the forecast of tropical events superimposed on the satellite image. There is no significant “new” tropical activity forecast for this week. Matthew is an existing tropical event.
Below is the current water vapor Imagery for North America.
Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream.
Below is the forecast out five days.
To see how the pattern is projected to evolve, please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.
This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.
When we discuss the jet stream and for other reasons, we often discuss different layers of the atmosphere. These are expressed in terms of the atmospheric pressure above that layer. It is kind of counter-intuitive to me. The below table may help the reader translate air pressure to the usual altitude and temperature one might expect at that level of air pressure. It is just an approximation but useful.
Click here to gain access to a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on “earth” adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on “earth” to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns. This amazing graphic covers North and South America.
Four- Week Outlook
I am going to show the three-month OND Outlook (for reference purposes), the Updated Outlook for the single month of October, the 6 – 10 Day and 8 – 14 Day Maps and the Week 3 – 4 Experimental Outlook.
First – Temperature
Here is the Three-Month OND Temperature Outlook issued on September 15, 2015, 2016:
Here is the Temperature Outlook for October which was updated on September 30, 2016
6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook
8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook
Looking further out.
Now – Precipitation
Here is the three-month OND Precipitation Outlook issued on September 15, 2016 :
And here is the Updated Outlook for October Precipitation Issued on September 30, 2016
6 – 10 Day Precipitation Outlook
8 – 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
.
As I view these maps on October 3 (two of the five update each day and one (the Week 3 – 4 Outlook) updates every Friday), it looks like precipitation leading up to October 28 is tending for the first half of October to be mostly a mixed wet and dry pattern for the northern tier and a mostly dry southern tier. The pattern is projected to evolve in the second half of October to be one with a Northwest wet anomaly and a Great Plains dry anomaly. Everywhere else is EC.
Here is the NOAA discussion released today October 3, 2016.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 09 – 13 2016
TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MODEL’S AGREE ON FORECASTING A CLOSED 500-HPA CLOSED LOW NEAR WESTERN ALASKA, THOUGH THE EXACT POSITION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS TRANSLATES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THOSE AREAS. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST BY ALL MODELS, HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN. TODAY’S 0Z ECMWF-BASED MODELS DIFFERS GREATLY FROM TODAY’S GFS- AND CANADIAN-BASED MODELS. THE 0Z ECMWF IS PREDICTING A WEAKER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. THAN THE OTHER MODELS, MINIMIZING BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE WEAKER TROUGH FORECAST BY THE 0Z ECMWF ALSO LEADS TO HURRICANE MATTHEW BEING SLOWER TO PROGRESS THAN IN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. TODAY’S GFS- AND CANADIAN-BASED SOLUTIONS PREDICT HURRICANE MATTHEW TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFFSHORE AND BECOME ENTRAINED IN A TROUGH, HELPING TO INTENSIFY THE TROUGH AND INCREASE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE 0Z ECMWF FORECASTS HURRICANE MATTHEW TO LINGER OFF THE EAST COAST, AND NOT BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW, LEADING TO A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST. TODAY’S 0Z ECMWF RUN REMAINS AN OUTLIER, HOWEVER, AND BECAUSE THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION TODAY, THE ECMWF-BASED RUNS WERE GIVEN MUCH LESS WEIGHT IN TODAY’S MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND, WHICH HEAVILY FAVORS TODAY’S GEFS-BASED SOLUTIONS. THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND DEPICTS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, SLIGHTLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
STRONGLY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS. BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST. NEAR AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE.
STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS, THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THERE. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF HURRICANE MATTHEW ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS IN THE EASTERN U.S.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 – 17 2016
THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND OVER ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES COVER A BIT MORE OF THE EASTERN U.S. THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. OVER ALASKA, UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN IS MORE UNCERTAIN IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, LEADING TO LOWER PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY.
STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, REDUCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL ALASKA, BUT INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE COUNTRY BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS AND TOOLS
Some might find this analysis interesting as the organization which prepares it looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of ENSO events.
Analogs to the Outlook.
Now let us take a detailed look at the “Analogs” which NOAA provides related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. “Analog” means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 – 14 day Outlook.
Here are today’s analogs in chronological order although this information is also available with the analog dates listed by the level of correlation. I find the chronological order easier for me to work with. There is a second set of analogs associated with the Outlook but I have not been regularly analyzing this second set of information. The first set which is what I am using today applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today. The second set, which I am not using, relates to the correlation of the forecasted outlook 6 – 10 days out with similar patterns that have occurred in the past during the dates covered by the 6 – 10 Day Outlook. The second set of analogs may also be useful information but they put the first set of analogs in the discussion with the second set available by a link so I am assuming that the first set of analogs is the most meaningful and I find it so.
Day | ENSO Phase | PDO | AMO | Other Comments |
Sept 14, 1954 | La Nina | – (t) | – | Long, Strong La Nina |
October 3, 1957 | El Nino | + | + | Strong El Nino |
Oct 8, 1975 | La Nina | – | – | Long, Strong, La Nina |
Sept 12, 1997 | El Nino | + | + | MegaNino |
Sept 13, 1997 | El Nino | + | + | MegaNino |
Oct 6, 1998 | La Nina | – | + | MegaNina |
Oct 7, 1998 | La Nina | – | + | MegaNina |
Oct 12, 1998 | La Nina | – | + | MegaNina |
Sept 22, 2008 | Neutral | – | + |
(t) = a month where the Ocean Cycle Index has just changed or does change the following month.
One thing that jumped out at me right away was the spread among the analogs from September 12 to October 12 which is thirty days which is a fairly large spread. I have not calculated the centroid of this distribution which would be the better way to look at things but the midpoint, which is a lot easier to calculate, is about September 29. These analogs are centered on 3 days and 4 days ago (September 29 or 30). So the analogs could be considered in sync with the calendar meaning that we will be getting weather that normally would occur this time of the year including the forecasted Western trough which is typical this time of the year.
There are this time three El Nino Analogs (why are there any?), five La Nina Analogs, and just one ENSO Neutral Analog. The phases of the ocean cycles in the analogs point towards McCabe Conditions “C” and” D” which is the same as last week. They are opposites and the forecast is more in line with McCabe Condition “D” which is consistent with La Nina. But having both El Nino and La Nina analogs and two or even three combinations of Ocean Phases in these analogs raises many questions.
The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time. One of the major reasons that I write this weather and climate column is to encourage a more long-term and World view of weather.
You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.
Historical Anomaly Analysis
When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.
Recent CONUS Weather
This is provided mainly to see the pattern in the weather that has occurred in recent months. Because it is now the beginning of October, I have now removed the July and August Graphics.
Here is the 30 Days ending September 24, 2016
And the 30 Days ending October 1, 2016
NOAA updated their Seasonal Outlook on September 15. We reported on that on Sunday Sept 18. You can read that report here. If you opt to go read my Report on NOAA’s Seasonal Outlook Update, please return from there to read this report which you can do by simply hitting your “backspace” button on your keyboard.
B. Beyond Alaska and CONUS Let’s Look at the World which of Course also includes Alaska and CONUS
World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by hitting your “backspace” key which may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool.
Although I can not display the interactive control panel in my article, I can display any of the graphics it provides so below are the current worldwide precipitation and temperature forecasts for three days out. They will auto-update and be current for Day 3 whenever you view them. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here
Precipitation
Temperature
But I know how to display the precipitation forecast from Queensland Australia and here it is.
JAMSTEC issued their Precipitation Forecast last week but it was out of date when issued. With these meteorological agencies the reader is always in the catch-up mode.
Just to be complete I will show their temperature forecast
Here is the discussion that does with it.
Sep. 21, 2016 Prediction from 1st Sep., 2016
ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts a La Niña Modoki/weak La Niña state [Editor’s Note: A La Nina State or Condition is not the same as a La Nina event because it takes a sufficient duration for a period of La Nina conditions to be declared to be a La Nina Event] will reach the peak in the boreal fall. Then, the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by boreal spring. The model prediction is so far consistent with the observed evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The model has successfully predicted the negative IOD as observed in recent SST anomalies. The 2016 negative IOD will reach the peak in the boreal fall. It will bring a wetter-than-normal (drier-than-normal) condition over the eastern (western) side of the Indian Ocean; there is high possibility of floods in the region near Sumatra and Java. On the other hand, we warn dry conditions in East African countries.
Regional forecast:
In boreal fall, as a seasonally averaged view, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern Brazil will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, eastern China, Indo-China, East Africa, and parts of southern Africa might experience a drier condition during boreal fall, while most parts of Indonesia, northern South America (including Colombia, Ecuador, and northwestern Brazil), southern West Africa, and western Central Africa will experience a wetter-than-normal condition; this may be mostly due to the negative IOD and the weak La Niña. Because of those climate conditions, Australia will receive above normal rainfall during austral summer. Most part of Japan will experience above normal temperature and above normal precipitation in fall, particularly in the western part of Japan.
Our monthly predictions fluctuate much in mid- and high- latitudes. The forecast skills in those latitudes on regional scales are still limited; predictions in those regions should be used carefully.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures from Normal for this Time of the Year i.e. Anomalies
And when we look at the current Sea Surface anomalies below, we see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to ENSO. The graphic issued Sunday differs greatly along the Equator in the Eastern Pacific from what I saw Saturday so I do not know if the Oceans Changed or NOAA changed.
Below I show the changes over the last month in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.
Look at the Western Pacific in Motion.`
Below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period. This graphic is scheduled to update on Tuesday and I am reading the September 27, 2016 Version and looking at Week 2 of that forecast.
C. Progress of the Cool ENSO Event
Starting with Surface Conditions.
TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC (a good way of viewing data related to the part of the Equator and the waters close to the Equator in the Eastern Pacific where we monitor to determining the current phase of ENSO. It is probably not necessary to follow the discussion below, but here is a link to TAO/TRITON terminology.
And here is the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic.
———————————————— | A | B | C | D | E | —————– |
The below table which only looks at the Equator shows the extent of anomalies along the Equator. I had split the table to show warm, neutral, and cool anomalies. The top rows showed El Nino anomalies. When there were no more El Nino anomalies along the Equator, I eliminated those rows. The two rows just below that break point contribute to ENSO Neutral and after another break, the rows are associated with La Nina conditions. I have changed the reference date to May 23, 1016.
Subareas of the Anomaly | Westward Extension | Eastward Extension | Degrees of Coverage | ||||
As of Today | May 23, 2016 | As of Today | May 23 2016 | As of Today | In Nino 3.4 | May 23, 2016 | |
These Rows Show the Extent of ENSO Neutral Impacts on the Equator | |||||||
0.5C or cooler Anomaly* | 150E | 155E | Land | 155W | 115 | 50 | 50 |
0C or cooler Anomaly | 170E | 155W | LAND | Land | 95 | 50 | 60 |
These Rows Show the Extent of the La Nina Impacts on the Equator | |||||||
-0.5C or cooler | 180W | 145W | LAND | Land | 85 | 50 | 50 |
-1C or cooler Anomaly | LAND | 140W | LAND | 105W | 0 | 0 | 35 |
-1.5C or cooler Anomaly | LAND | 135W | LAND | 120W | 0 | 0 | 0 |
* There is a +0.5C anomaly near the Nino 3.4 Measurement Area between 130W and 120W both north and south of the Equator. It is not directly on the Equator. It could indicate the cool anomaly is at least temporarily splitting into two pieces.But right on the Equator there may be cooler water surfacing or not being impacted by surface winds.
I calculate the current value of the ONI index (really the value of NINO 3.4 as the ONI is not reported as a daily value) each week using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W Nino 3.4 measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions. So as of Monday October 3, in the afternoon working from the October 2 TAO/TRITON report, this is what I calculated. [Although the TAO/TRITON Graphic appears to update once a day, in reality it updates more frequently.]
Anomaly Segment | Estimated Anomaly | |
Last Week | This Week | |
A. 170W to 160W | -0.1 | -0.5 |
B. 160W to 150W | -0.1 | -0.4 |
C. 150W to 140W | +0.1 | -0.5 |
D. 140W to 130W | -0.0 | -0.3 |
E. 130W to 120W | +0.4 | -0.1 |
Total | +0.3 | -1.8 |
Total divided by five subregions i.e. the ONI | (+0.3)5 = +0.1 | (-1.8)/5 = -0.4 |
My estimate of the daily Nino 3.4 SST anomaly has fallen to -0.4 which is an ENSO Neutral value. NOAA has reported the weekly ONI to be -0.8 which is quite a bit cooler than they reported last week and very much a La Nina value. There is a huge difference between -0.4 and -0.8. But some other graphics I am showing this evening support the -0.8 calculation and others do not. So are we dealing with artifact or ground truth? I do not know. It could be the Easterlies.Nino 4.0 is reported as being the same as being much cooler than last week at -0.5. This is in line with the westward expansion of the surface cool water anomaly. Nino 3 is being reported a bit cooler at -0.2 a very small change. Nino 1 + 2 which extends from the Equator south rather than being centered on the Equator is being reported a bit cooler at +0.6. El Nino is not measured in Nino 1 + 2 but +0.6 would still be an El Nino value if found further west.I am only showing the currently issued version of the NINO SST Index Table as the prior values are shown in the small graphics on the right with this graphic. The same data in table form but going back a couple of more years can be found here. NINO 1+ 2 stubbornly remains positive and determines the weather of Ecuador and Peru.
Sea Surface Temperature and Anomalies
It is the ocean surface that interacts with the atmosphere and causes convection and also the warming and cooling of the atmosphere. So we are interested in the actual ocean surface temperatures and the departure from seasonal normal temperatures which is called “departures” or “anomalies”. Since warm water facilitates evaporation which results in cloud convection, the pattern of SST anomalies suggests how the weather pattern east of the anomalies will be different than normal.
I thought it would be useful to show this view which is more focused on the Equator but looks down to 300 meters rather than just being the surface. Here you can clearly see the cool blob (darker blue) at 170W to 155W which is the focus of this cool event. Does 10 to 15 degrees of Latitude make a La Nina? This could all be an issue of seasonal adjustments or the every five year trend adjustment.
Let us further look at the Subsurface Water Temperatures.
Equatorial Subsurface Analysis
We are now going to change the way we look at a three-dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view and an average of the subsurface heat content to a more detailed view from the surface down.
Current Sub-Surface Conditions. Notice by the date of the graphic that the lag in getting this information posted so the current situation may be a bit different than shown. The date shown is the midpoint of a five-day period with that date as the center of the five-day period.
And now the pair of graphics that I regularly provide.
The above pair of graphics showing the current situation has an upper and lower graphic. The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters. At different times and today in particular, I have discussed the difference between the actual values and the deviation of the actual values from what is defined as current climatology (which adjusts every ten years) and how both measures are useful but for different purposes.
The bottom half of the graphic (Absolute Values which highlights the Thermocline) is now more useful as we track the progress of this new Cool Event.
Here are the above graphics as a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.
Although I did not fully discuss the Kelvin Waves earlier, now seems to be the best place to show the evolution of the subsurface temperatures which remains relevant. What we have is only the upwelling phase of the series of Kelvin waves last winter.
And now Let us look at the Atmosphere.
Low-Level Wind Anomalies near the Equator
Here are the low-level wind anomalies.
And now the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies which tells us where convection has been taking place.
And Now the Air Pressure which Shows up Mostly in an Index called the SOI.
This index provides an easy way to assess the location of and the relative strength of the Convection (Low Pressure) and the Subsidence (High Pressure) near the Equator. Experience shows that a comparison between Air Pressure at Tahiti and Darwin Australia is substantially correlated with the Precipitation Pattern of the entire World..
Below is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reported by Queensland, Australia. The first column is the tentative daily reading, the second is the 30 day moving/running average and the third is the 90 day moving/running average.
Date | Current Reading | 30-Day Average | 90 Day Average |
Sept 27 | +17.12 | +13.39 | +6.90 |
Sept 28 | +10.94 | +13.35 | +7.03 |
Sept 29 | +14.14 | +13.31 | +7.76 |
Sept 30 | +27.46 | +13.82 | +7.49 |
Oct 1 | +13.28 | +13.99 | +7.44 |
Oct 2 | + 7.09 | +13.82 | +7.93 |
Oct 3 | – 0.20 | +13.23 | +7.96 |
The 30-day average, which is the most widely used measure, as of October 3 is reported at +13.23 which is about the same as last week and is definitely a La Nina level. The 90-day average at +7.96 is up from last week and is again at a La Nina level. These may be the high water marks for the SOI re this cycle but I said that last week and the week before and the week before. Usually but not always the 90 day average changes more slowly than the 30 day average but it depends on what values drop out. The disparity between the two is one reason why we look at both. Different agencies use a different range to classify the SOI as being El Nino or La Nina. To some extent it is the change in the SOI that is of most importance. It has been increasing but may now be stabilizing.
The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource. September was not particularly favorable for La Nina development and most likely neither will be October in terms of the MJO. The forecasts of the MJO are all over the place and not suggesting a strong Active or Inactive Phase of the MJO any time soon.The MJO being Inactive is more favorable for La Nina than the MJO being Active. But the MJO goes back and forth from being Active, Inactive, strong and weak so in has mostly a short-term impact. Right now the impact is fairly muted. It tends to be more important when the situation is ENSO Neutral and the MJO can start the process of an El Nino getting started. It is less significant re the initiation of a La Nina but is a factor. It is surprising how weak the MJO has been for months.
Forecasting the Evolution of ENSO
The below is the Early September CPC/IRI “Probabilistic Forecast which includes a large component of input from meteorologists as compared to the second forecast in the month which is more tied to model results without interpretation. It is not a big difference but it is a difference. I assume they do it this way as to avoid forcing meteorologists to have to run their computers twice a month (some sarcasm expressed there).
And then we have the recently released mid-month model-based report
We have suggested that it is possible that some of the models and in particular NOAA’s model will be wrong about how fast the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool moves back towards its La Nina location and it may well be that next winter will be more of a Neutral year or even have some characteristics of an El Nino Modoki and thus be wetter than a typical year as the Warm Pool may still be more in the Central Pacific than shifted all the way west to its La Nina position.
The full list of weekly values can be found here.
Forecasts from Other Meteorological Agencies.
Here is the Nino 3.4 report issued September 27 from the Australian BOM
We also have the most recent JAMSTEC September 1 ENSO forecast.
The model shows ENSO Neutral for the next two years. The swings are a bit more intensified than in the prior model run. Indian Ocean IOD. The discussion was shown earlier as it contains a weather forecast.
Indian Ocean IOD
Not directly related is the IOD Forecast which also came out ton September 27 (earlier actually but without its discussion.
D. Putting it all Together.
Last winter’s El Nino has officially ended in terms of currently satisfying the criteria. We are now speculating on the winter of 2016/2017 which now according to some of the models seems likely to be a La Nina or Neutral with a La Nina bias. But Australia and Japan do not see it that way and are not calling for a La Nina at this point in time. So NOAA is a bit the Odd Man Out but it is mostly a question of degree and in the end NOAA may turn out to have correct. NOAA is calling for a borderline La Nina and the others are forecasting a La Nina-ish event that does not quite meet the criteria for being labeled a La Nina and does not last long enough to meet the criteria.
Forecasting Beyond Five Years.
So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast. The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS. It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder.
E. Relevant Recent Articles and Reports
Weather in the News
Hurricane Matthew is covered extensively within the report this week. .
Weather Research in the News
Nothing to report
Global Warming in the News
Nothing to report.
F. Table of Contents for Page II of this Report Which Provides a lot of Background Information on Weather and Climate Science
The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.
1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)
2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD
3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.
4. Computer Models and Methodologies
5. Reserved for a Future Topic (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)
G. Table of Contents of Contents for Page III of this Report – Global Warming Which Some Call Climate Change.
The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.
2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming
3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming
4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming
Useful Background Information
With respect to relating analog dates to ENSO Events, the following table might be useful. In most cases this table will allow the reader to draw appropriate conclusions from NOAA supplied analogs. If the analogs are not associated with an El Nino or La Nina they probably are not as easily interpreted. Remember, an analog is indicating a similarity to a weather pattern in the past. So if the analogs are not associated with a prior El Nino or prior La Nina the computer models are not likely to generate a forecast that is consistent with an El Nino or a La Nina.
El Ninos | La Ninas | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Start | Finish | Max ONI | PDO | AMO | Start | Finish | Max ONI | PDO | AMO | |
DJF 1950 | J FM 1951 | -1.4 | – | N | ||||||
T | JJA 1951 | DJF 1952 | 0.9 | – | + | |||||
DJF 1953 | DJF 1954 | 0.8 | – | + | AMJ 1954 | AMJ 1956 | -1.6 | – | + | |
M | MAM 1957 | JJA 1958 | 1.7 | + | – | |||||
M | SON 1958 | JFM 1959 | 0.6 | + | – | |||||
M | JJA 1963 | JFM 1964 | 1.2 | – | – | AMJ 1964 | DJF 1965 | -0.8 | – | – |
M | MJJ 1965 | MAM 1966 | 1.8 | – | – | NDJ 1967 | MAM 1968 | -0.8 | – | – |
M | OND 1968 | MJJ 1969 | 1.0 | – | – | |||||
T | JAS 1969 | DJF 1970 | 0.8 | N | – | JJA 1970 | DJF 1972 | -1.3 | – | – |
T | AMJ 1972 | FMA 1973 | 2.0 | – | – | MJJ 1973 | JJA 1974 | -1.9 | – | – |
SON 1974 | FMA 1976 | -1.6 | – | – | ||||||
T | ASO 1976 | JFM 1977 | 0.8 | + | – | |||||
M | ASO 1977 | DJF 1978 | 0.8 | N | – | |||||
M | SON 1979 | JFM 1980 | 0.6 | + | – | |||||
T | MAM 1982 | MJJ 1983 | 2.1 | + | – | SON 1984 | MJJ 1985 | -1.1 | + | – |
M | ASO 1986 | JFM 1988 | 1.6 | + | – | AMJ 1988 | AMJ 1989 | -1.8 | – | – |
M | MJJ 1991 | JJA 1992 | 1.6 | + | – | |||||
M | SON 1994 | FMA 1995 | 1.0 | – | – | JAS 1995 | FMA 1996 | -1.0 | + | + |
T | AMJ 1997 | AMJ 1998 | 2.3 | + | + | JJA 1998 | FMA 2001 | -1.6 | – | + |
M | MJJ 2002 | JFM 2003 | 1.3 | + | N | |||||
M | JJA 2004 | MAM 2005 | 0.7 | + | + | |||||
T | ASO 2006 | DJF 2007 | 1.0 | – | + | JAS 2007 | MJJ 2008 | -1.4 | – | + |
M | JJA 2009 | MAM 2010 | 1.3 | N | + | JJA 2010 | MAM 2011 | -1.4 | + | + |
JAS 2011 | FMA 2012 | -0.9 | – | + | ||||||
T | MAM 2015 | NA | 1.0 | + | N |
ONI Recent History
The official reading for Jun/Jul/Aug is now reported as -0.3. As you can see this recent El Nino peaked in NDJ and has now ended and depending on what system you use it is either the 2nd or 3rd strongest El Nino since modern records were kept which is considered to be 1950. You could argue for it being #1 based on a week of readings but few are buying that argument. Still #2 or #3 means it is one of the strongest ever based on the way these events are measured. I will be writing more about that soon in a separate article. I believe the measurement system is inadequate re being useful in forecasting Worldwide weather impacts. The JJA is not a La Nina Value. So there would need for there to be five periods of -0.5 or colder starting with JAS. It is not even clear that JAS will record as -0.5 or less. So the chances of this event being an official La Nina are very low.
The full history of the ONI readings can be found here. The MEI index readings can be found here.