Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 25.6 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 40.3 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.
Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 138,595
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,022
- Extra COVID vaccine OK’d for those with weak immune systems
- Vaccines Can Make the Difference in Delta Variant’s Impact
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Thursday that he is launching a rapid response unit to expand the use of monoclonal antibodies
- Among adults aged 65-74 years, effectiveness of full vaccination for preventing hospitalization was 96% for Pfizer-BioNTech, 96% for Moderna, and 84% for Janssen COVID-19 vaccines
- US Military to Conduct Clinical Trial of Anti-Aging Pill Next Year
- Research debunks myth that COVID vaccination promotes mutations
- Amidst Abundance of Job Opportunities, Quits Rate is Historically High
- 5 states have fewer than 10% of ICU beds available
- Plus Many More Headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
New data on coronavirus vaccine effectiveness may be “a wakeup call” – Axios
[editor’s note: I reported on this study earlier this week but I missed the significant reduction in the effectiveness of Pfizer against the Delta Variant. I also reported on the Lambda variant earlier this week and you should read: New Studies Suggest Lambda Variant Could Be Vaccine-Resistant]A new preprint study that raises concerns about the mRNA vaccines’ effectiveness against Delta — particularly Pfizer’s — has already grabbed the attention of top Biden administration officials.
What they’re saying: The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant. “If that’s not a wakeup call, I don’t know what is,” a senior Biden official told Axios.
Driving the news: The study, conducted by nference and the Mayo Clinic, compared the effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in the Mayo Clinic Health System over time from January to July.
- Overall, it found that the Moderna vaccine was 86% effective against infection over the study period, and Pfizer’s was 76%. Moderna’s vaccine was 92% effective against hospitalization and Pfizer’s was 85%.
- But the vaccines’ effectiveness against infection dropped sharply in July, when the Delta variant’s prevalence in Minnesota had risen to over 70%.
- Moderna was 76% effective against infection, and Pfizer was only 42% effective.
- The study found similar results in other states. For example, in Florida, the risk of infection in July for people fully vaccinated with Moderna was about 60% lower than for people fully vaccinated with Pfizer.
Why it matters: Although it has yet to be peer-reviewed, the study raises serious questions about both vaccines’ long-term effectiveness, particularly Pfizer’s.
- It’s unclear whether the results signify a reduction in effectiveness over time, a reduced effectiveness against Delta, or a combination of both.
- “Based on the data that we have so far, it is a combination of both factors,” said Venky Soundararajan, a lead author of the study. “The Moderna vaccine is likely — very likely — more effective than the Pfizer vaccine in areas where Delta is the dominant strain, and the Pfizer vaccine appears to have a lower durability of effectiveness.”
- He added that his team is working on a follow-up study that will try to differentiate between the durability of the two vaccines and their effectiveness against Delta.
Extra COVID vaccine OK’d for those with weak immune systems – AP
U.S. regulators say transplant recipients and others with severely weakened immune systems can get an extra dose of the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines to better protect them as the delta variant continues to surge.
The late-night announcement Thursday by the Food and Drug Administration applies to several million Americans who are especially vulnerable because of organ transplants, certain cancers or other disorders. Several other countries, including France and Israel, have similar recommendations.
It’s harder for vaccines to rev up an immune system suppressed by certain medications and diseases, so those patients don’t always get the same protection as otherwise healthy people — and small studies suggest for at least some, an extra dose may be the solution.
“Today’s action allows doctors to boost immunity in certain immunocompromised individuals who need extra protection from COVID-19,” Dr. Janet Woodcock, the FDA’s acting commissioner, said in a statement.
The FDA determined that transplant recipients and others with a similar level of compromised immunity can receive a third dose of the vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna at least 28 days after getting their second shot. The FDA made no mention of immune-compromised patients who received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
[editor’s note: also read CDC panel unanimously recommends Covid vaccine booster shots for vulnerable Americans]
See How Vaccines Can Make the Difference in Delta Variant’s Impact – New York Times
The Delta variant, the highly transmissible version of the coronavirus that now makes up almost all new cases in the United States, continues to drive a surge throughout the country, with average new cases topping 100,000 for the past week.
Some of those infections have been reported in fully vaccinated people in so-called breakthrough cases. As the sheer number of those vaccinated increases, so will the raw number of breakthrough cases, especially with the Delta variant circulating. But experts say breakthrough cases do not mean the vaccine is ineffective.
The Delta variant’s dominance is new enough that authoritative data does not yet exist, but the available data shows that unvaccinated people are still much more likely to contract Covid-19 and far more likely to experience symptomatic disease, while vaccines drastically reduce the risk of hospitalization and death from the virus.
[editor’s note: everyone should read this full article]
Florida governor announces launch of virus rapid response unit – PBS
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Thursday that he is launching a rapid response unit to expand the use of monoclonal antibodies and relieve pressure at hospitals that continue to report a rise in COVID-19 patients.
The drugs are delivered intravenously or by injection and made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. It concentrates doses of lab-made antibodies to fight COVID-19 and are geared toward people who are at high risk.
DeSantis mentioned good candidates were elderly people and those with chronic kidney disease, diabetes, morbid obesity and sickle cell.
DeSantis has previously said the treatment helped then-President Donald Trump when he was infected last fall.
The Republican governor said he believes this monoclonal antibody treatment is not as well known because it received federal emergency use authorization about the same time as the mRNA vaccines were being approved, and that the focus “rightfully” was on vaccines at the time.
He said he felt it was important to increase its use along with vaccines saying they were “the most effective” yet seen for people who are already infected.
[editor’s note: also read As virus cases surge, the Biden Administration encourages more use of antibody treatments.]
US Military to Conduct Clinical Trial of Anti-Aging Pill Next Year – The Defence Post
The US Special Operations Forces Command (SOCOM) plans to conduct clinical trials of an oral anti-aging drug next year, Breaking Defense reported, citing service officials.
The command has spent $2.8 million in a joint effort with a private biotech laboratory, Metro International Biotech, LLC (MetroBiotech), since 2018 to develop the pill.
Lisa Sanders, director of science and technology for Special Operations Forces, acquisition, technology & logistics (SOF AT&L), told the outlet that SOCOM has completed pre-clinical safety and “dosing studies in anticipation of follow-on performance testing” of the drug, which has the potential to “delay aging” and “prevent onset of injury.”
The pill is a “first-in-class nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide, oxidized state (NAD+) enhancer,” according to Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News. NAD is a coenzyme central to metabolism.
The MetroBiotech website further explained the significance of NAD+, describing it as a key ingredient in preserving health and metabolic function.
“NAD+ levels have been shown to decline as humans age and increasing NAD+ to preserve health and normal metabolism is believed to have broad pharmaceutical potential,” the laboratory explained.
Amidst Abundance of Job Opportunities, Quits Rate is Historically High – The Conference Board
The rapid rise in job openings to historic highs coupled with increasingly more workers quitting is leading to severe labor shortages, especially in leisure & hospitality, food service, and construction. With the economy rapidly reopening across the nation, there are now more job openings available for workers than ever recorded. Yet many firms are reporting difficulty in filling those positions. While this can be partly explained by labor supply constraints related to the pandemic, including workers’ health concerns and increased unemployment benefits, a wave of workers quitting their jobs at record rates is compounding these challenges.
Firms facing recruitment and retention difficulties have a few options at their disposal to increase the pool of potential workers in the short-term. They can increase compensation for current staff and new hires, lower skill requirements for new hires or wait for labor supply constraints to ease. We expect some people who left the labor force to re-enter as pandemic-related unemployment benefits expire and vaccination rates increase. However, they will not all return, and not immediately either. Wages in sectors with the most severe labor shortages are already rapidly increasing, and we expect this trend will continue across other sectors in the coming months as firms look to remain competitive in recruiting workers and fill vital positions.
What is already known about this topic?
Clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccines currently authorized for emergency use in the United States (Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) have shown high efficacy in preventing symptomatic (including moderate to severe) COVID-19.
What is added by this report?
Among adults aged 65-74 years, effectiveness of full vaccination for preventing hospitalization was 96% for Pfizer-BioNTech, 96% for Moderna, and 84% for Janssen COVID-19 vaccines; among adults aged ≥75 years, effectiveness of full vaccination for preventing hospitalization was 91% for Pfizer-BioNTech, 96% for Moderna, and 85% for Janssen COVID-19 vaccines.
Research debunks myth that COVID vaccination promotes mutations – New-Medical
A study conducted by researchers at the University of Maryland, USA, has highlighted the importance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination in reducing the frequency of mutations in the delta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The study also presents an evolutionary algorithm that can accurately predict new COVID-19 outbreaks. A detailed description of the study is currently available on the medRxiv* preprint server.
… The study reveals that the frequency of viral mutations can be reduced by increasing the rate of full vaccination. In other words, countries with high vaccine coverage are less likely to experience new COVID-19 outbreaks. Thus, public hesitancy to COVID-19 vaccination could potentially lead to the emergence of more pathogenic viral variants and failure to achieve herd immunity.
As recommended by the scientists, mass vaccination, control measure implementation, and continuous genomic surveillance are the most vital strategies to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.
5 states have fewer than 10% of ICU beds available, according to HHS data – CNN
Five states in the US have fewer than 10% of their intensive care unit beds available, according to most recent data from the US Department of Health and Human Services.
The states reporting at or greater than 90% intensive care unit bed occupancy are:
- Alabama
- Texas
- Georgia
- Florida
- Mississippi
In Alabama, 95% of beds are in use, leaving only 80 available. Mississippi is reporting only 78 open beds across the state.
Five states, meanwhile, have fewer than 60 ICU beds available statewide, according to HHS data: Rhode Island, Vermont, Alaska, Delaware, and Idaho. All five are reporting greater than 70% ICU bed utilization.
Nationwide, 77% of ICU beds are in use, and 23% of ICU beds are in use for Covid-19 patients specifically.
Fifteen states have at least 25% of their ICU beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, Texas, and Georgia all have at least 40% of their ICU beds occupied by Covid-19 patients.
[editor’s note: also read These 8 states make up half of US Covid-19 hospitalizations]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The World Health Organization said it formed a new international scientific advisory group to continue studying the origins of SARS-CoV-2; the group will also aim to pinpoint new pathogens in hopes of being better prepared for the next global pandemic as well.
Taliban sweep across Afghanistan’s south, take 3 more cities
U.S. officials say Kabul, the capital, could fall within 30 days.
The Pentagon is preparing possible evacuation of most U.S. citizens in Kabul. American negotiators have asked the Taliban to spare the U.S. Embassy.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said tourists will be allowed back in the country by early 2022, after completion of its coronavirus vaccine rollout.
SARS-CoV-2 variants containing L452R spike mutation more resistant to antibody-mediated neutralization. A team of scientists from Frankfurt, Germany, has recently explored the efficacy of vaccine- or infection-induced antibodies and therapeutic monoclonal antibodies in neutralizing kappa and delta variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
Iran is struggling with its worst wave yet of the virus.
Russia, Fourth Worst-Hit Country, Sees Record COVID Deaths for Second Day
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Judge Rejects Attempt to Immediately Block CDC’s Latest Eviction Moratorium
28 — that’s the percentage of Black New Yorkers between the ages of 18 to 44 that are fully vaccinated.
Census data: US is diversifying, white population shrinking [following image credit New York Times]
More than 9,000 anti-Asian incidents since pandemic began
Indiana University can require students to be vaccinated, the Supreme Court ruled.
Separately, the Supreme Court blocked part of New York State’s eviction moratorium.
The largest U.S. teachers’ union says it supports vaccine mandates for educators. And Virginia will require masks in all K-12 schools.
San Francisco will bar unvaccinated people from indoor dining, concerts and other events.
Home Prices in the U.S. Soar 23%, the Fastest Rate on Record
Fed to unveil bond-buying taper plan next month; jobless rate to fall slowly
Moderna says COVID-19 shot retains antibody levels for six months against variants
Discovery of highly potent neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. A new study published in the journal Nature Communications has reported two neutralizing antibodies, namely, nCoVmab1 and nCoVmab2, which are potent against SARS-CoV-2.
Most working parents say Covid hurt their careers, survey finds
Texas deploys out-of-state nurses to fight Covid as young people crowd hospitals
Facebook pushes back-in-office date to January
Alabama Children’s Hospital Treating 22 Kids With COVID, 5 on Ventilators. “This marked increase is due to the community spread of the Delta variant that is impacting younger people, including children,” the hospital said.
51 Percent of Americans Support Employers Requiring COVID Vaccine: Poll. Seventy-five percent of Democrats support employers requiring their workers to get a COVID-19 vaccine, while 67 percent of Republicans do not.
Florida Sees 3 Days of Record Breaking COVID Cases Since Start of August. According to data from the U.S. CDC, Tuesday marks the most recent day the Sunshine State has seen a record number of new COVID-19 cases, with 24,869 new cases.
Amid Mask Debate, Report Says Children Make Up 14 Percent of COVID Cases. A report by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association revealed nearly 4.3 million U.S. COVID-19 cases have affected children.
98% of new Covid-19 cases reported in Mississippi today are in unvaccinated
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
06 August 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Decline Continues
Preliminary August 2021 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Shows A Stunning Loss Of Confidence
July 2021 Import Year-over-Year Inflation ‘Declines’ To +10.2%
What Does Full FDA Approval Of A Vaccine Do If It’s Already Authorized For Emergency Use?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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