Written by Gary
Crypto rips, dollar dips, & stocks hit record highs as Americans’ confidence collapses (SPY +0.2%). Index stocks to hog limelight next week as broad market rally pauses.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
Can Carbon Capture Tech Save North Sea Oil Production?As North Sea oil exploration and production will continue for years to come, oil companies look at ways to reduce emissions following significant criticism from environmentalists. But will cutting emissions sway public opinion on Britains ongoing oil and gas activities? This month, the U.K. government announced $22.8 million for projects to reduce emissions in the North Sea oil and gas sector. Projects include the repurposing of existing pipelines for hydrogen exports. The investment will come from the Scottish government’s Energy Transition | |
Oil Prices Resilient Despite Demand DoubtsDespite growing demand fears due to new outbreaks of covid across Asia, oil prices have remained resilient this week.Friday, August 13th, 2021Crude prices have pulled off a noteworthy performance this week, with Brent remaining above the $70 per barrel mark despite mounting COVID fears in China and the U.S. While President Biden called on OPEC+ to drill more in order to counter rising gasoline prices, the IEA downgraded its demand forecast for the remaining months of 2021, wary that Asias Covid recovery might not be as swift as previously | |
U.S. Rig Count Rises To 16-Month HighThe number of oil and gas rigs in the United States rose by 9 this week, according toBaker Hughesafter rising by 3 last week. The total rig count is now 500, up 256 from the same time last yearthe highest rig count since April 2020, but still down sharply from the 790 active rigs prior to the pandemic. The U.S. oil rig count rose by 10 this week to 397, while the number of gas rigs fell by 1. Miscellaneous rigs held at zero. The EIAs estimate for oil production in the United States for the week ending August 6 rose by | |
Iran Oil Output Falls To 40-year Low In 2020Irans crude oil production fell to the lowest in 40 years, according to an updated analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. At less than 2 million bpd, the EIA said, the countrys oil output was affected by both the pandemic, which decimated demand for oil, and U.S. sanctions targeting specifically the Iranian oil industry. Before the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the snap-back of sanctions, Iran was pumping around 2.6 million barrels daily and exporting some 2.5 million bpd, the EIA also said. Still, | |
Asia Buys More U.S. Crude As Middle East Hikes Oil PricesDespite a slowdown in fuel demand due to the Delta variant, Asian refiners have booked more crude oil from the United States for the fourth quarter, taking advantage of the lower U.S. benchmark prices than last month, traders told Bloomberg on Friday. Refiners in Asia seek cheaper crude, especially after Saudi Aramco raisedlast week its official selling prices for crude oil loading for Asia in September to the highest premiums to benchmarks since February 2020. Since other major Middle Eastern producers follow the trends in Saudi pricing, | |
Why The Market Doesnt Need Much More OPEC+ OilWhile the Biden Administration calls on OPEC+ to boost production more than planned, the major oil forecasters scaled back their outlook on how much OPEC+ crude the market would need. Earlier this week, the White House called on the OPEC+ group to increase oil production more than they had planned in order to tame rising gasoline prices that could derail the global economic recovery. However, also this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC itself revised down their forecasts for | |
Minnesota Twins hope to lure fans by selling custom 1991 World Series productsThe Minnesota Twins will leverage the 30th anniversary of the 1991 World Series team by selling a limited amount of customized products in-stadium only. | |
Boeing delays test flight of Starliner crew spacecraft for at least two months after valve problemsBoeing’s second uncrewed flight test of its Starliner spacecraft is delayed for at least two months due to difficulties with propulsion valves. | |
Supply-chain delays and skyrocketing shipping costs hit Cort furniture leasing company hardBerkshire Hathaway’s Cort says shipments have been months behind schedule amid delays at ports and competition for products. | |
CDC panel unanimously recommends Covid vaccine booster shots for vulnerable AmericansThe decision by the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices follows the FDA’s approval Thursday of the booster shots for immunocompromised patients. | |
Dr. Scott Gottlieb expects coronavirus to be an ‘endemic’ virus in U.S. after delta surgeDr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday that the coronavirus in the U.S. will become an endemic virus after the recent surge in delta cases calms down. | |
How the U.S. military plans to replace the iconic Humvee on future frontlinesThe Joint Light Tactical Vehicle is set to take over as the preeminent solution to the U.S. military’s light vehicle needs. | |
27 vaccinated people test positive for Covid on a Carnival cruise shipOnly one of the positive cases on the Carnival cruise ship was a passenger and the remaining 26 were crew members. | |
SkyBridge founder Scaramucci on his firm’s Covid vaccine mandate: ‘This is a freedom issue for all people’“This is a freedom issue for all people. The vaccines will create more freedom, not less freedom,” Scaramucci told CNBC. | |
Space company Momentus begins trading on the Nasdaq, with new CEO after turbulent SPAC mergerSpace company Momentus debuted on the Nasdaq on Friday, completing a nearly yearlong and turbulent merger process. | |
Texas deploys 2,500 out-of-state medical workers to fight Covid as younger patients crowd hospitalsTexas Gov. Greg Abbott said the state was bringing in 2,500 out-of-state medical personnel to relieve exhausted doctors and nurses. | |
With college kids returning to campus, back-to-dorm spending on track to make bigger “but later “splashSome shoppers are putting off purchases until later in the season, as they juggle summer activities and wait for details about colleges’ plans for the fall. | |
Crypto Rips, Dollar Dips, & Stocks Hit Record Highs As Americans’ Confidence CollapsesCrypto Rips, Dollar Dips, & Stocks Hit Record Highs As Americans’ Confidence Collapses If the stock market is a “forward-looking” mechanism, then the future it sees is very, very different from the ‘expectations’ that the average American has about what’s looming… Source: Bloomberg Put another way… On the week, The Dow outperformed (which has been relatively unusual) with Nasdaq breaking even and Small Caps tumbling. Notice that every day the cash open (this is 24hr futures data) was utter chaos before everything calmed down in general | |
Morgan Stanley: The Delta Wave Will Peak In 1-2 WeeksMorgan Stanley: The Delta Wave Will Peak In 1-2 Weeks In making his case for the bottom in yields and cyclical stocks, yesterday JPMorgan quant Marko Kolanovic yesterday echoed what we said earlier this week when we observed that the Delta wave may have just peaked, writing that “the US inflection is days away.” He’s not the only one to piss into the Biden admin’s hopes to extend the Delta crisis until the midterms, or maybe even until the next mail-in presidential election. As Morgan Stanley’s resident in-house biotechnologist Matthew Harrison writes overnight, “with new cases in the US reaching ~120K/day, investor questions are centered around the timing of the new peak in cases. Based on the reproduction rate trajectory, US/UK hospitalization relationship, and previous peaks, we expect the next peak to occur in ~1-2 weeks.” As Harrison notes, the only question on investor minds is when will Delta be over? To this his answer is that a peak would occur in late August / early September. Based on detailed data we now believe that US cases may be approaching a peak within the next 1-2 weeks (~August 15th-25th) for the following reasons: (1) During the 5 major prior peaks in cases over the past 1+ year (Exhibit 1, blue dashed lines), the peak in reproduction rate (Rt)values | |
Robinhood Spikes After Report That SEC Folds On “Payment For Order Flow” BanRobinhood Spikes After Report That SEC Folds On “Payment For Order Flow” Ban After concerns grew that Robinhood’s main source of revenue would come under increasing pressure, Fox News’ Charlie Gasparino has tweeted a ‘scoop’ that the SEC will punt on their decision (no doubt after Gensler got a tap on the shoulder from Ken Griffin at Citadel)…
That tweet sparked a panic bid in HOOD… | |
50 Years After Nixon Ended The Gold Standard One Bank Asks “Can We Continue To Do This?”50 Years After Nixon Ended The Gold Standard One Bank Asks “Can We Continue To Do This?” Almost a decade ago, around the 40th anniversary of Nixon ending the gold standard, we observed that it wasn’t just the dollar’s convertability into gold that died – so did the prosperity of the US middle class, because while income growth for the bottom 90% had soared ever since WWII, it suddenly flatlined around Nixon’s historic decision in 1971; at the same time the advent of the “fiat standard” ushered in an era of unprecedented wealth for the top 1% whose fortunes have exploded ever since. As discussed below, Nixon’s decision would lead to monumental consequences for not just the US but the entire world. Fast forwarding a decade to today, Deutsche Bank’s credit strategist Jim Reid reminds us that this Sunday marks exactly fifty years since Nixon suspended the convertibility of the dollar into Gold. This, Reid goes on, began the era of global fiat money noting that “one of the reasons it has survived so long is that at the start of this … | |
Lord of the Rings: Amazon moves show to UK from New ZealandThe multi-million dollar production is one of the most expensive shows in the history of television. | |
Gatwick in talks with lenders amid Covid lossesThe airport says Covid restrictions and a collapse in customer demand pushed it to a loss. | |
Crypto hacker offered reward after $600m heistThe anonymous hacker has returned almost all the money, but claims not to be interested in reward. | |
Index stocks to hog limelight next week as broad market rally pausesThis week, largecap stocks were rank outperformers to smallcap and midcap stocks for the first time in several months and marked a likely shift in trend as the bull market enters its 15th month. | |
Market Movers: Quality turns the table; Tata Steel plays bull market’s poster boyQuality stocks were ignored for most of this year by investors because of their supposedly boring returns. The Nifty100 Quality 30 index underperformed other factor indices such as Nifty High Beta and Nifty Alpha 50. | |
Trouble in paradise as many midcap, smallcap stocks enter bear marketThere is trouble brewing under the surface, as more than a quarter of the stocks that are part of the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 index are now deep in the bear market territory. A stock is said to be technically in the bear market, if it falls more than 20 per cent from its recent high. | |
06 August 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Decline ContinuesWritten by Steven Hansen ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward again declined but remains in expansion. | |
Bond Report: Treasury yields end lower but post biggest two-week rise since JuneU.S. Treasury yields decline Friday as survey shows loss of consumer confidence in early August. | |
The Margin: ‘South Park’ creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone are buying Casa Bonita restaurantThe beloved Colorado restaurant, featured on ‘South Park,’ had filed for bankruptcy due to the pandemic | |
Futures Movers: Oil declines, but U.S. prices notch a weekly gain as traders weigh spread of delta variantOil futures decline on Friday, but U.S. prices maintain a small weekly gain, as investors worry about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 and its effect on crude demand. |
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