Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 365 K to 393 K (consensus 378 K), and the Department of Labor reported 375,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 394,500 (reported last week as 394,000) to 396,250
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 87,519,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 12,055,290, down from last week’s 12,974,883
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 65 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 70 % lower last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending August 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 375,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 385,000 to 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 394,000 to 394,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending July 31, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 2.1 to 2.2 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 31 was 2,866,000, a decrease of 114,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 14, 2020 when it was 1,770,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 50,000 from 2,930,000 to 2,980,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,101,000, a decrease of 99,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 2020 when it was 2,071,750. The previous week’s average was revised up by 12,500 from 3,188,250 to 3,200,750.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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