Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 62.0 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 26.9 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.
Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 84,735
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 501
- A last word of caution to all those pretending the Covid-19 pandemic is toning down [a must read post]
- No Shortcuts to SARS-Cov-2 Antivirals
- What’s the Evidence Guiding CDC’s Latest Mask Policy?
- Biden calls on Congress to extend eviction ban with days until expiration
- Covid immunity is about more than antibodies – here’s what else helps protect you
- A third of eligible people aren’t vaccinated. Here’s what we know about them
- COVID Breakthrough Cases Ran the Gamut in Healthcare Workers
- One Dose for the Previously Infected?
- Vaccine mandates are on the rise, and they will probably have a bigger effect than mask mandates.
- Gottlieb: US will be through delta wave in 2 or 3 weeks
- Landlords Sue U.S. for Rent Unpaid Under Eviction Moratorium
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
What’s the Evidence Guiding CDC’s Latest Mask Policy? – MedPage
With the Delta variant and vaccination at play, the ignorance is even greater. Not only do we know very little if, and when, and under what circumstances mask mandates offer benefits, we know absolutely nothing about how this might operate in the face of a variant after individuals have been vaccinated. At what case rates are mask mandates most effective? Do they work only if you encourage surgical masks or is a cloth mask enough? Does this hold for vaccinated individuals in the setting of the Delta variant?
The CDC’s guidance applies only to substantial and high transmission counties (50 daily cases or higher per 100,000 people), but again, there is no science that shows mandates work in these settings but not others. It is also a confusing and constantly changing metric to try to keep track of.
The CDC cannot “follow the science” because there is no relevant science. The proposition is at best science-y; a best guess based on political pressure, pundit anxiety, and mechanistic understanding.
[editor’s note: whenever something seems strange – usually there is something one does not understand. In this case, I suspect the CDC is sitting on a piece of data that is even worse than masking up. I have always worried that the COVID vaccines were leaky – and as I raise chickens I have issues with the famous leaky vaccine for the deadly Mareks. If I bring in an unvax’d chicken to my vaccinated herd – it catches Mareks and dies.]
Defining Away Vaccine Safety Signals – Mathew Crawford
[editor’s note: This author suggests that the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) system has significant issues. This post deserves a full read]
… Not only does the PRR need to get out of line for a safety signal to be generated, the use of ‘and‘ instead of ‘or‘ means that other additional criteria must also be satisfied before the CDC self-reports a safety signal! And the chi-squared criterion isn’t helping the situation. Those unfamiliar with statistics will not recognize the problem, but when the different vaccines all result in similar problems (like myocarditis or blood clots, as has been noted), the chi-squared statistics will remain muted. In fact, chi-squared statistics are not even supposed to be used on data that is likely to be correlated when causal. Presumption of a negative test result is not a reasonable test standard. It’s as if nobody at all thought about the possibility that the spike protein being an underlying thread among the vaccines could possibly be important.
So, when you define away the problems on paper, they just cease to exist?
Calling this a safety system is decidedly unsafe. Even worse—given that numerous academics, including statisticians, reviewed this document, it is hard to believe that the scale invariance embedded in the definition of PRR, or the logic that includes meeting multiple criteria at the same time, went unnoticed. It certainly appears that the CDC’s goal was to establish an illusion of safety, and a reason to ignore the true signs of danger. At best, they unfathomably hired nobody whose job it was to remain independently-minded who could clue them in?
If my understanding of this situation is correct, the mass vaccination program should be immediately halted until the safety data is gathered, cleaned, and examined. We cannot tolerate a misleading statement of “vaccines are safe and effective” in the face of regulatory agencies defining away the responsibility of performing the risk analysis needed to verify safety. The CDC leadership should be immediately replaced and investigated, and independent analysts should reformulate the task of tracking vaccine safety results.
I really hope I’ve misinterpreted something. I stumble over ideas and make mistakes just like everybody else. Unlike the CDC, I’d like for you to share my numbers widely and invite critique. By all means, forward this article to everyone you know. Maybe one of them can explain my error and set me straight. So…please forward this to everyone you know.
Everyone.
I’d rather be a little embarrassed in the eyes of many if I’m wrong than to watch even one more person get sick or die and perhaps become another false COVID statistic.
Landlords Sue U.S. for Rent Unpaid Under Eviction Moratorium – Bloomberg
A landlords’ lobbyist said it sued the U.S. government to recover damages the organization claims its members suffered as a result of a federal moratorium on evictions.
The National Apartment Association filed the lawsuit Tuesday at the U.S. Court of Federal Claims in Washington, the organization said in a statement. The complaint wasn’t immediately available on the court’s electronic docket.
The NAA claims that by the end of last year, more than 10 million delinquent tenants owed $57 billion in unpaid rent. Apartment owners are now responsible for $27 billion of debt not covered by federal rental assistance, the group argues.
The moratorium issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control last year has hurt landlords who provide critical rental housing, and “sets a dangerous precedent for future disaster-response measures,” according to the complaint. Property owners forced to maintain their properties were unfairly prohibited from evicting tenants not paying rent, and from renting to paying tenants, according to the suit.
The U.S. Justice Department didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment on the suit.
Gottlieb: US will be through delta wave in 2 or 3 weeks – The Hill
Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb predicted early Wednesday that the United States could get through the worst of the delta variant surge of the coronavirus in a few weeks.
“The bottom line is, the vaccine does not make you impervious to infection,” Gottlieb said during an appearance on CNBC. “There are some people who are developing mild and asymptomatic infections even after vaccination.”
After acknowledging the delta variant of the coronavirus as “much more transmissible” than the first strain, Gottlieb questioned whether that fact should “translate into general guidance” on mask wearing and vaccine requirements in the United States.
“I don’t think that’s the case,” he said. “I don’t think we’re going to get enough bang for our buck by telling vaccinated people they have to wear masks at all times to make it worth our while. I think we’re further into this delta wave than we’re picking up. I think in another two or three weeks we’ll be through this.”
Covid immunity is about more than antibodies – here’s what else helps protect you – CNBC
There’s been a lot of news around research out of New York University that suggests the Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine is less effective against the delta variant, because it triggers fewer antibodies. And many are questioning whether, several months out, people’s antibody levels will wane and require a booster shot.
Antibody levels are one piece of the puzzle when it comes to fighting Covid, but they don’t tell the whole story when it comes to immunity.
Here’s what you need to know:
There’s more to the immune system than antibodies
The recent NYU study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, focuses on antibody measurements (in a lab setting), but that’s just one of many aspects of the immune system that contribute to protection against Covid, according to Shane Crotty, professor at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology who studies how the immune system remembers infections and vaccines.
… What are B and T cells?
Antibodies are important – they bind to and essentially coat the surface of the virus to prevent it from invading a cell, though it’s not clear yet how long Covid antibodies last or to what degree they protect you, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But there are other important players in Covid immunity, namely B cells and T cells. These cells are special white blood cells (called lymphocytes) that work together to do hunt down an infections and can quickly remember how to fight it off in the future.
… Your immune system keeps learning
In addition to the immune system’s various “weapons,” its evolving nature is important.
“The immune system is sort of plastic in the sense that it continues to ‘stay in the classroom,'” says Dr. Dan Kaul, professor of infectious disease at the University of Michigan. In other words, the immune system is always learning how to adapt and respond to bacteria and viruses as they change.
A third of eligible people aren’t vaccinated. Here’s what we know about them. – CNN
1. They’re more likely to be Republicans than Democrats. Most polling (see here) shows that somewhere between 50% and 60% of Republican adults are vaccinated compared with 80% to 90% of Democratic adults.
2. They’re likely to be younger. About 90% of Americans age 65 and older have received at least one dose (see here and click on age), while only a little more than 50% of those age 18-24 have. That percentage is even lower for 12- to 17-year-olds.
3. They’re likely to be Black or Hispanic. This is a harder number to come by because it’s not tracked by every state agency and sample sizes on polls are smaller, but among the entire population and the states that are tracked, about 48% of White Americans have received at least one dose compared to 41% of Hispanics and 38% of Black Americans (see here). (Nearly two-thirds [65%] of Asians have.)
WHAT MATTERS: Just about 57% of the country has gotten one dose and just about half of the country is fully vaccinated, according to the CDC. But zero people under 12 have gotten the shot. So how big is the universe of people that’s actually holding us up?
Vaccine mandates are on the rise, and they will probably have a bigger effect than mask mandates. – New York Times
Momentum for vaccine mandates seems to be building – which could ultimately matter much more than any mask-wearing guidelines.
Facebook, Google and Netflix all said yesterday that they would require many employees to have been vaccinated for Covid-19, with limited exceptions for medical or religious reasons. The companies joined Morgan Stanley, The Washington Post and several other high-profile private employers.
Several local governments – including New York State yesterday – have announced worker mandates that cover a few million people combined. In some cases, people can take a regular Covid test instead of being vaccinated.
More than 600 universities have announced mandates for students or employees. California State, the country’s largest four-year public university system, joined the list Tuesday. Many hospitals also have mandates, including the sprawling Veterans Health Administration and the Mayo Clinic.
Perhaps the biggest new rule is scheduled to be announced today – from President Biden, covering the millions who work for the federal government.
These high-profile announcements make it much easier for other organizations that had been considering mandates to go ahead: Their leaders no longer need to worry they will become the subject of national attention for enacting one.Still, vaccine mandates remain the exception. The vast majority of private companies have not required their workers to be vaccinated. Nor have almost any major companies required their customers – like airline passengers or theater goers – to be vaccinated. (One hurdle, some companies say, is the F.D.A.’s failure to grant the vaccines full approval, despite strong endorsements by the F.D.A.’s leaders.)
Mandates, in short, may be the most significant Covid response that the country has not yet really tried.
Mandates are controversial, obviously. Many Republican officials oppose them. Ohio has passed a law restricting school mandates, and Florida has banned businesses from requiring consumers to prove vaccination. Given this opposition, vaccine mandates are never going to be national.
But they could become much more common – and the Delta variant has led more politicians, business executives and other leaders to consider them. Several weeks ago, Covid appeared to be receding on its own: Vaccinations were rising, and cases were plunging. But the combination of lingering vaccine skepticism and the contagiousness of Delta has caused cases to surge.
Many Americans are now unhappily pondering the possibility that a return to normal life remains months away. The C.D.C. is telling some people to put their masks back on. Businesses, including Google, are delaying plans to bring workers back to the office, into the autumn. Parents are anxious that schools will not fully reopen this fall, which would almost certainly cause more academic and psychological damage for children. Many parents are also worried that children too young to be vaccinated remain vulnerable to “long Covid.”
The primary cause of all these problems, many experts say, is the large share of Americans who are unvaccinated – about one third of those eligible. The biggest costs of their refusal fall directly on them: They are risking their lives. But vaccinated people also pay a price, through restrictions on daily life – and the increased chances of future outbreaks, which could produce vaccine-resistant variants.
“I think there’s some real anger brewing out there among vaccinated folks that’s not getting much attention,” David Nir, the political director of Daily Kos, wrote. My colleague Roni Caryn Rabin reported, “Many inoculated Americans are losing patience with vaccine holdouts.” Kay Ivey, Alabama’s Republican governor, was harsher: “Time to start blaming the unvaccinated.”
Vaccine mandates are the policy manifestation of this frustration. They effectively tell the unvaccinated that their decision is hurting others and that society has an interest in pushing them to change. They can refuse, but they will pay a price – in lost access to a job, a college campus or other shared experiences where they may infect other people.
COVID Breakthrough Cases Ran the Gamut in Healthcare Workers – MedPage
Breakthrough COVID-19 cases in fully vaccinated healthcare workers were rare, and generally were associated with the individual’s immune response to the vaccine in the early days of infection, an Israeli study found.
In 39 breakthrough infections of SARS-CoV-2 out of 1,497 fully vaccinated healthcare workers, neutralizing antibody titers were lower than uninfected controls during the “peri-infection period” (case-to-control ratio 0.361, 95% CI 0.165-0.787), reported Gili Regev-Yochay, MD, of Tel Aviv University in Israel, and colleagues.
Moreover, nearly one in five cases reported symptoms more than 6 weeks later, akin to “long COVID,” the authors wrote in the New England Journal of Medicine.
“Most important, we found that low titers of neutralizing antibody and S-specific IgG antibody may serve as markers of breakthrough infection,” they said.
They discussed how “no correlate of protection from breakthrough infection has been reported,” though 85% of these cases were from the Alpha variant. CDC officials in the U.S. discussed the potential for breakthrough cases with the Delta variant in fully vaccinated people as the reason for their new guidance on indoor masking in hotspots and schools.
Regev-Yochay’s group examined a group of healthcare workers at a single medical center, including employees, students, and volunteers from Dec. 19, 2020 to April 28, 2021. Nearly all (91%) of these workers received the two-dose Pfizer vaccine, and filled out daily health questionnaires. The center tested staff via RT-PCR who either had COVID symptoms or were exposed to an infected person.
… Of more than 11,000 healthcare workers, 13.1% underwent RT-PCR testing. The authors noted that 38 people were tested for every breakthrough case detected, for a test positivity of 2.6%.
Eighteen of the 39 breakthrough cases were among nursing staff, 10 were administration or maintenance workers, six were allied health professionals and five were in physicians. Mean age was 42, and almost two-thirds of cases were in women. Median interval between the second dose and reinfection was 39 days. Twenty-seven cases occurred in workers who were tested only due to exposure to someone with a known infection.
Two-thirds of breakthrough cases had mild symptoms, the most common of which was upper respiratory congestion (36%), followed by myalgia and loss of smell or taste (28% each), while 21% reported fever. There were 19% of patients reporting “long COVID” symptoms, including prolonged loss of smell, persistent cough, fatigue, weakness, dyspnea, or myalgia.
No Shortcuts to SARS-Cov-2 Antivirals – EurekAlert
Repurposing existing drugs has not yet yielded any effective treatments for COVID-19, say Aled Edwards and Ingo Hartung in a Perspective, even though billions of dollars have already been spent on “hypothesis-free” drug repurposing for COVID-19 antivirals. “[I]t would be wise to increase investments toward the rational development of new direct-acting antiviral drugs,” they write. “Although this approach may take more time, it is less risky and can even be used to develop drugs for newly emerging viruses.” Edwards and Hartung highlight a 22 June Science study by Tummino et al. that reported that a class of repurposed drugs that had showed an antiviral effect against SARS-CoV-2 in cells were functioning non-specifically through phospholipidosis, and so were an artifact – unlikely to be effective in vivo. Tummino et al. found this artifact to arise with multiple repurposed drugs that have been tested in patients – including hydroxychloroquine. Edwards and Hartung say this and related studies are a warning that even amid the pressure of a pandemic, scientific thoroughness is still essential. They recommend all screening hits be treated with extreme skepticism, whether they derive from a biochemical or cell-based assay and whether they are new compounds or approved drugs. They highlight the challenge it is for drug screens to flag compounds that act subtly or through yet unknown confounding mechanisms, noting that this challenge can often be overcome by care-fully exploring structure-activity relation-ships (SARs). “Exploring the SAR is exactly what Tummino et al. did,” say the authors, “and their diligence was rewarded by falsifying a compelling target hypothesis without investing money and the hopes and health of patients into a clinical study.”
FDA Letting Troubled COVID Vaccine Factory Restart – AP/Medscape
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is allowing the problem-plagued factory of contract manufacturer Emergent BioSolutions to resume production of COVID-19 vaccine, the company said Thursday.
The Baltimore factory was shut down by the FDA in mid-April due to contamination problems that forced the company to trash the equivalent of tens of millions of doses of vaccine it was making under contract for Johnson & Johnson. The bulk vaccine was contaminated with an ingredient for AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, which was being made in the same factory.
Emergent did not say exactly when production will resume at the factory.
Since April, FDA inspectors have combed the factory and reviewed security camera footage to identify lapses in handling material inside the factory and worked with Gaithersburg, Maryland-based Emergent to resolve a host of problems, including unsanitary conditions and poorly trained workers.
The agency also has been reviewing data on months’ worth of vaccine substance made in the factory and has allowed several large batches of vaccine doses made from it to be released for distribution.
Emergent is one of several J&J contractors that produce its one-shot vaccine in bulk. The concentrated vaccine then is shipped to other factories for final steps, including diluting them to the correct strength, putting them in vials and packaging them up.
Biden calls on Congress to extend eviction ban with days until expiration – The Hill
The White House called on Congress to pass an emergency extension of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) eviction ban on Thursday, three days before it expires, insisting the administration does not have the legal power to extend it after a recent Supreme Court ruling.
“Given the recent spread of the delta variant, including among those Americans both most likely to face evictions and lacking vaccinations, President Biden would have strongly supported a decision by the CDC to further extend this eviction moratorium to protect renters at this moment of heightened vulnerability,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement.
“Unfortunately, the Supreme Court has made clear that this option is no longer available,” she added.
The Supreme Court last month left intact the CDC’s moratorium on evictions by a 5-4 vote, with Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined with the court’s three liberals.
A last word of caution to all those pretending the Covid-19 pandemic is toning down – geertvandenbossche.org
The current expansion in prevalence of infectious Sars-CoV-2 variants is highly problematic because it erodes natural Ab-based, variant-nonspecific immunity in the non-vaccinated part of the population. The high infectivity rate that results from this expansion not only further enhances the expansion of these variants but may also drive natural selection of viral variants that are featured by an even higher level of infectiousness. Erosion, therefore, of natural Ab-based, variant-nonspecific immunity promotes breeding and transmission of more infectious viral variants in the non-vaccinated part of the population. On the other hand, mass vaccination promotes natural selection of increasingly vaccine immunity (VI)-escaping variants in the vaccinated part of the population. Taken together, mass vaccination conducted on a background of high infectivity rates enables more infectious, increasingly VI-escaping variants to expand in prevalence. This evolution inevitably results in inclining morbidity rates in both, the non-vaccinated and vaccinated population and precipitates the emergence of circulating viral variants that will eventually fully resist vaccine-mediated immunity (VMI). This is why mass vaccination campaigns should not be conducted during a pandemic of a highly mutable virus, let alone during a pandemic of more infectious variants (unless transmission-blocking vaccines are used!). It is critical to understand that a rapid decline in viral infectivity rates that is not achieved by natural infection but merely results from expedited mass vaccination campaigns will only delay abrupt propagation of emerging, fully vaccine-resistant viral variants and hence, only delay the occurrence of a high wave of morbidity and mortality. In contrast, mass vaccination campaigns that are progressing more slowly, especially when conducted on a background of relatively low infectious pressure, will result in a steadily growing propagation of increasingly VI-escaping variants and hence, cause a wave of morbidity and mortality that continues to grow bigger and larger as more and more people become vaccinated. It’s only when fully vaccine-resistant viral variants will become dominant that this wave will start to peak.
[editor’s note: interesting post which deserves a full read]
One Dose for the Previously Infected? – MedPage
Facing down the more transmissible Delta variant, it seems wise to equip oneself with as much protection against COVID-19 as possible — especially in a nation with robust vaccine supply.
But legitimate scientific questions have been raised as to whether people who’ve been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 need just one dose of an mRNA vaccine, and some supply-constrained countries — including Germany, Italy, and France — have made it official policy that this group needs just one dose.
So what does the science say about the protection conferred by just one dose in this population?
Early work does seem to suggest that one shot in a previously infected person provides immunity that’s comparable to two doses in an infection-naive patient.
But it’s indeed early work. Does that protection last as long as that from a two-dose series? Is it enough to stand up to Delta? Those are just some of the questions that remain, but more researchers are becoming convinced by the evidence that’s available.
Interpreting the Evidence
Paul Offit, MD, of Children’s Hospital Philadelphia, is one of the world’s top experts on vaccines, having developed one himself. You won’t find a more “pro-vaccine” source. Yet last week, Offit said on the ZDoggMD show that those with prior infection probably would be sufficiently protected with just one dose.
“If you’ve been naturally infected and you get a dose of an mRNA vaccine — and there are now a few studies that have shown this — you act as if you got your second dose,” Offit said. “You get a clear booster response. So you probably only need one dose of an mRNA vaccine.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Saudi announces three-year travel ban for citizens visiting India
Delhi doctor first proven case to suffer 3 Covid infections
Global recovery drives air cargo volume to four-year high
The Cuban government has detained hundreds of those who protested earlier this month.
“Willing to ruffle feathers.” China’s new ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang, has a record of rebutting Western criticism.
U.S. pole vaulter Sam Kendricks was bounced from the Olympics after testing positive for COVID.
99% of COVID-19 deaths in Italy occur among those not fully vaccinated
Ireland considering COVID-19 booster shots as early as fall: reports
Duterte says vaccine refusers in the Philippines should be detained at home.
Despite setbacks, AstraZeneca logs a billion doses for 170 nations.
French official says Britain’s quarantine rules for travelers are discriminatory
Beijing reports first Covid-19 case in nearly 6 months
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The studies that prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to change their mask guidance for vaccinated persons are not available
Federal pandemic aid will cut the number of Americans in poverty by a record 45 percent this year, a study found.
An 8.2-magnitude earthquake off the coast of Alaska prompted a two-hour tsunami warning there and in Hawaii.
Stat of the day: 38% of remote workers work from bed
A new preprint study conducted by Pfizer-BioNTech found its vaccine efficacy could drop down to 84% within 6 months.
FDA revised the emergency use authorization labeling for baricitinib (Olumiant) in COVID-19, no longer requiring it to be used in combination with remdesivir
A Maryland man is facing federal charges for allegedly sending emails threatening to harm NIAID Director Anthony Fauci, MD, and NIH Director Francis Collins, MD, PhD; one of the emails even threatened that Fauci and his family would be “dragged into the street, beaten to death, and set on fire.”
The FDA issued a warning letter to Pennsylvania-based Visible Vapors — which holds over 15 million tobacco products — to remove their unauthorized e-cigarette products from the market after failing to submit any premarket tobacco product applications by the deadline.
In Australia, where vaccine supply is scarce, the military is being called in to enforce a Sydney lockdown amid a surge in coronavirus cases.
A Texas man has pleaded guilty to being involved in a fraudulent scheme to sell 50 million N95 respirator masks to the government of New South Wales in Australia for over $317 million — none of which he had.
According to the cybersecurity firm CynergisTek’s annual report of over 1,000 hospitals, 76% of healthcare systems failed on supply chain security.
After four players and eight staff members for the Washington Nationals tested positive for COVID, Wednesday night’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies was postponed.
Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection enhances effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine
Kids with allergies less likely to get SARS-CoV-2
Half of U.S. parents may not vaccinate their youngest child against Covid-19
Mask sales rise 24 percent after weeks of decline
Capitol Police asked to arrest the maskless
Louisiana judge allows people to opt out of community service if they get vaccinated
Smithsonian, Disney World Now Requiring Masks Following CDC Guidelines
AstraZeneca to Seek Full FDA Approval for COVID Vaccine
100K Vaccine Doses in South Carolina Could Expire by Fall Amid Delta Spike
Covid-19 vaccines estimated to have prevented 60,000 deaths in England
More than 71% of the US population lives in a county where people should be wearing masks indoors
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
June 2021 Headline Pending Home Sales Decline
24 July 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Declines
Advance Estimate 2Q2021 GDP Is 6.5%
24 July 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Again Worsened
Long COVID: Symptoms Experienced During Infection May Predict Lasting Illness
Sign-Up Window For Free COBRA Coverage For Many Laid-Off Workers Closes This Week
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts – in the U.S. and around the world – decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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