Written by Gary
June 2021 Headline Pending Home Sales Decline (SPY +0.4). 24 July 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Declines.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
Can The Biden Administration Meet Its Ambitious Offshore Wind Power Target?Earlier this year, the Biden administration said it planned to build offshore wind power generation capacity to the tune of 30 GW by 2030, creating more than 44,000 direct jobs and close to 33,000 indirect ones. To date, the United States has wind power capacity of 118 GW. Of this, only 42 MW is offshore wind. And According to IHS Markit, the 30 GW additional capacity target will almost certainly be missed. Last year, the United States set a record in wind power capacity additions, at 14.2 GW added during the pandemic year. That was a continuation | |
Can G7 Countries Compete With Chinas Belt And Road Initiative?Following the expansion of Chinese-led projects in many emerging markets over the past decade, the G7 has unveiled its own initiative to support global infrastructure development, dubbed Build Back Better World (B3W). Announced at a G7 meeting in June, the B3W will focus on four main areas: climate, health, digital technology and gender. Its overarching goal is to catalyse hundreds of billions of dollars of infrastructure development in low- and middle-income countries. Beyond this outline, little information has been released about how the B3W | |
Renewable Power Projects Overtake Oil & Gas In Middle EastCountries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) awarded as much as US$2.8 billion worth of renewable energy projects in the first half of 2021, compared to not a single contract award for oil- or gas-fueled power stations in the region, MEED Insights new report Middle East Energy Transition showed. To compare, the average value of contract awards for oil- or gas-powered stations stood at $4.8 billion annually between 2017 and 2020, according to the report. Last year alone, $6.2 billion worth of oil and gas power plant contracts were | |
TotalEnergies Starts Buybacks As Rallying Oil Price Boosts EarningsTotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE) will be allocating up to 40 percent of additional cash flow to share buybacks as rallying commodity prices helped it generate in the second quarter more than double cash flow from operations compared to Q2 2020. TotalEnergies reported on Thursday an adjusted net income of $3.46 billion for the second quarter of 2021, up from $129 million for Q2 2020, and 20 percent higher compared to the pre-crisis Q2 2019 quarter. Cash flow from operations jumped by 63 percent from Q2 2020 to $6.8 billion for the second quarter of this | |
Goldman Sachs Predicts Drastic Rise In Power Demand Due To EVsWhile many are quick to crow about the “Earth-saving” benefits of electric vehicles, few have looked at the incremental demand in power necessary to meet the growing demand of the “green” vehicles. Furthermore, even fewer have looked at who could stand to benefit from the increased demand. In a new note called “The Future of Energy Demand” out this week, Goldman Sachs looked at both of these points. The note states that battery electric vehicles and plug in hybrid electric vehicles are only about 1% of the current automotive fleet, but that | |
U.S. Gasoline Prices Rally Once Again After A Brief DipU.S. gasoline prices started rising again after a brief respite last week, in which oil prices slumped following the OPEC+ decision to add additional crude supply to the market every month starting in August. In the week to July 26, the national gas price average pushed two cents cheaper to $3.15 per gallon, AAA said on Monday. One of the factors for lower national average gas prices was the fact that U.S. gasoline demand remained relatively flat on the week. The other was the plunge in international crude oil prices on Monday, July 19. For | |
Watch live: Biden unveils next steps in White House Covid vaccination pushBiden’s speech comes as the highly transmissible delta variant spreads in the U.S. and around the world. | |
Child-care centers struggle to staff up, fanning fears workers have left the industry for goodChild-care centers around the country still have closed classrooms because they do not have enough staff to open to full capacity. | |
Harvey Weinstein wins dismissal of one sexual assault charge in Los AngelesOne of 11 sexual assault charges against disgraced movie mogul Harvey Weinstein was dismissed on Thursday. | |
Nikola founder Trevor Milton pleads not guilty to fraud charges, released on $100 million bailMiton, who resigned as chairman from the company in September, was freed on a $100 million bond secured against two of his properties in Utah. | |
Scarlett Johansson sues Disney over ‘Black Widow’ streaming releaseScarlett Johansson is suing the Walt Disney Company for releasing “Black Widow” on streaming and in theaters at the same time. | |
Israel to give Pfizer Covid booster shots to people over 60 as efficacy appears to wane amid deltaIsrael’s Health Ministry reported last week that the two-dose vaccine is now just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain. | |
Nestle USA chief sees no easing in food consumption post-Covid peakSwiss-based Nestle on Thursday reported global sales grew 1.5% to just over $46 billion in the first six months of 2021. | |
Retailers are rethinking mask policies in the wake of new CDC guidance “and it could get complicatedRetailers are again contemplating whether or not to reinstate mask mandates in stores for shoppers and employees, following updated CDC guidelines. | |
New survey shows most flight attendants have dealt with unruly passengersA labor union survey shows most flight attendants have faced unruly travelers and that 17% of them have encountered physical incidents on board. | |
Wegmans is moving into an old Kmart location to open its first Manhattan storeWegmans Food Markets announced Thursday it will be opening its second location in New York City as it moves into the old Kmart location at Astor Place. | |
Traeger, Weber battle it out in barbecue IPO mini-boom as consumers spend billions on outdoor cookingWith people staying home amid the pandemic, barbecuing and outdoor cooking boomed, providing Weber and Traeger boosts that led both companies to go public. | |
Grand jury indicts Trevor Milton, founder of electric carmaker Nikola, on three counts of fraudFederal criminal fraud charges against Trevor Milton accuse the Nikola founder of lying about “nearly all aspects of the business.” | |
Yum Brands tops earnings estimates as sales rebound at Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza HutShares of Yum Brands rose more than 5% after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue on Thursday. | |
Robinhood Suffers Worst Big IPO Debut Ever As Dollar Dumps To 1-Month LowsRobinhood Suffers Worst Big IPO Debut Ever As Dollar Dumps To 1-Month Lows Thanks to Beijing’s National Team, Chinese stocks soared again today… Source: Bloomberg And Yuan exploded higher (thought it found resistance at 6.46)… Source: Bloomberg …and yuan’s strength helped monkeyhammer the USDollar to one-month lows today… | |
The “Real” Real Yield Is -4.15%… And We Are Stuck With It ForeverThe “Real” Real Yield Is -4.15%… And We Are Stuck With It Forever As we pointed out earlier this week, 10 year real yields spent the past few days trading around all-time lows. However, due to data limitations, we can only measure this using TIPS from 1997 onwards. So what do other measures that go back further show? That is the question posed by Deutsche Bank credit strategist Jim Reid who plotted three real yield series; using TIPS back to 1997, subtracting spot inflation from spot 10yr yields through time, subtracting a rolling 5yr average of inflation from spot 10 year yields. So using spot yields and inflation, Reid calculates that real yields are a “very low”, to put it mildly, -4.15% currently and the lowest since 1980 and not far off 70 year lows: “Clearly the market doesn’t believe 5.4% inflation is sustainable but it is what it is for now.” On the other hand, using spot yields and 5yr average inflation, real yields were lower last summer when 10yr nominal yields were c.0.50% and 5-yr average inflation was c.1.7%. At this point they were at 70 year lows. They are 40 bps off this level currently. Nevertheless, according to Reid, this measure does do a good job of broadly tracking real yields as officially quoted using TIPS. | |
Watch: Pelosi Bizarrely Declares Reason She Called GOP Leader A “Moron” Is “Science, Science, Science, And Science”Watch: Pelosi Bizarrely Declares Reason She Called GOP Leader A “Moron” Is “Science, Science, Science, And Science” Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News, After declaring that House GOP minority leader Kevin McCarthy was a œmoron for saying he opposes the new mask mandate (even for fully vaccinated people), Nancy Pelosi just repeated the word œscience over and over again as justification. When a reporter asked œIs Kevin McCarthy a moron, and if so, why? Â Pelosi responded œI said earlier in my comment, science, science, science, and science. œOn almost every subject that you can name, science is the answer, Pelosi added, without actually giving any scientific explanation as to why vaccinated people have to wear masks that do not protect them or other people against anything. … | |
Huge Unemployment Claims Gap Opens Between Red And Blue StatesHuge Unemployment Claims Gap Opens Between Red And Blue States Even though the debate died a month ago, every week some self-appointed financial “expert” brings up the of issue of whether unemployment claims in republican states are declining faster than in democratic states which are holding out until the bitter September end, when all extended emergency covid benefits are scheduled to end (unless the Biden admin extends them again… because Delta). And while we thought we ended the debate on this topic last week when we showed that “Jobless Claims Are Plunging In Republican States, Flat In Democrat States”, we still read the occasional article claiming the jury is still out on this topic. No, it isn’t, and here is the final proof which should shut up even the biggest socialist trolls. As Goldman writes today, “continued claims in regular state programs diverged further between states that are and are not ending benefits ahead of their stat … | |
Bumble to give staff unlimited paid leaveThe dating app’s policy is subject to manager approval and comes after the firm shut down for a week. | |
Shareholder dissent grows over Morrison’s takeover bidMore shareholders are coming out against a proposed £6.3bn deal for the supermarket chain. | |
Robinhood has a muted stock market debutShares in the online trading platform fell in its first day of trading in a lacklustre debut. | |
Markets see no RBI normalisation till end 2021; GDP trumps inflation worryNow, with the spectre of a third wave and the possibility of fresh lockdowns posing risks to RBI’s forecast of 9.5 per cent GDP growth in FY22, the market’s timelines for normalisation have been revised. | |
Bitcoin jumps 30% in 10 days: Next stop $50,000 or $150,000?Bitcoin and ace digital tokens have gained as much as 30 per cent in the last seven days. The cryptocurrency hit the $40,000 mark on Wednesday and investors have set their eyes on $50,000 as the next target. | |
Market Movers: Why metal stocks are rallying and what’s giving Maruti engine troubleThe main drivers of the rally were a clutch of important developments in China, the world’s largest commodity consumer. The Chinese government has reportedly decided it no longer wants to give incentives to its steel companies to export and instead wants to dissuade them altogether. | |
June 2021 Headline Pending Home Sales DeclineWritten by Steven Hansen The National Association of Realtors (NAR) seasonally adjusted pending home sales index declined. According to the NAR:
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24 July 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index DeclinesWritten by Steven Hansen The New York Fed’s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) declined this past week. This index’s trend is worsening based on the 13-week rolling average. | |
: Remembering Ron Popeil, the visionary who helped America see the drama in shopping ” and once tried to sell me a turkey fryerThe pitchman popularized the infomercial as a vehicle to sell one-of-a-kind products including the Showtime Rotisserie and Pocket Fisherman. | |
Earnings Outlook: Amazon earnings preview: As shoppers increasingly head out of their homes, e-commerce sales could slowA COVID-19 resurgence could be a tailwind for Amazon, say Benchmark analysts. | |
In One Chart: 10 and 30-year Treasury yields are caught in a ‘death cross’Technical pattern suggests there may be more momentum in store that drives both yields even lower from here, says Dimitri Delis of Piper Sandler Cos. |
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