Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 66.8 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 22.4 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 9,527
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 37
- Vaccinated people now make up almost 47% of all new Covid cases
- Number of Deaths Reported After COVID Vaccines Jumps by More Than 2,000 in 1 Week
- Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Significantly Less’ Effective Against Delta Variant: Israeli PM
- Are Patients Spreading SARS-CoV-2 to Their Hospital Roommates?
- Many vaccine skeptics have since changed their minds and gotten shots. Here’s why
- How to stay safe as covid-19 cases from the delta variant are on the rise
- Moderna Doses First Patient in Study of Flu mRNA Vaccine Candidate
- Dysbiosis in gut microbiota may cause severe secondary infection in COVID-19 patients
- Survey Shows Majority of Unvaccinated Americans Believe Microchips Are in Vaccines
- Leak Exposes Global Abuse Of Cyber-Spying Weapon To Target Politicians, Activists, & Journalists
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Are Patients Spreading SARS-CoV-2 to Their Hospital Roommates? – Medpage
One of the most important questions with any infectious disease, but particularly novel ones like SARS-CoV-2, is the mechanism and efficiency by which it spreads. From the beginning of the pandemic, there have been varied estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates and debate about whether it spreads predominantly through droplets versus aerosols.
In our recent study published in Clinical Infectious Diseases, we sought to provide new insight into these questions by examining the risk of transmission among hospital roommates when one of the two had an undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection.
… On multivariable analysis we found that the only factor significantly associated with transmission was the index positive roommate’s viral load: PCR cycle thresholds of ≤21 were significantly associated with transmission. This echoes other contact tracing studies that have also found strong associations between viral loads and transmission risk. Other factors were suggestive, but the small number of cases in our analysis limited statistical power to draw firm conclusions. Importantly, very few of the study subjects had been vaccinated, but one fully vaccinated roommate was infected by an unvaccinated index case.
What Can We Learn From This?
There are several important takeaways that can help improve infection control practices in the hospital as well as inform public health efforts to prevent transmission in the community. We found that SARS-CoV-2 is very easily transmitted if sharing a room with a person who is highly infectious, even if they are asymptomatic at the time (and importantly, viral loads tend to be highest right before symptom onset). High transmission rates occurred despite the fact that hospital rooms tend to have better ventilation than most homes and workplaces (≥6 air changes per hour vs ≤2). The high transmission rate coupled with the unique circumstances of hospital roommates (typically >6 feet apart, limited face-to-face contact, curtain between beds) provides further evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted by respiratory aerosols. Indeed, the advantage of studying transmission in hospital roommates is that it minimizes many of the confounding factors that could explain the high transmission rates in household members, who are more likely to have close contact including hugging, kissing, sharing meals, or sleeping in the same bed. While it is possible that transmission was via fomites on doorknobs or the toilet or sink, there has been little evidence of spread of SARS-CoV-2 via fomites in the literature.
Many vaccine skeptics have since changed their minds and gotten shots. Here’s why. – New York Times
When the Kaiser Family Foundation conducted a poll at the start of the year and asked American adults whether they planned to get vaccinated, 23 percent said no.
But a significant portion of that group — about one quarter of it — has since decided to receive a shot. The Kaiser pollsters recently followed up and asked these converts what led them to change their minds. The answers are important, because they offer insight into how the millions of still unvaccinated Americans might be persuaded to get shots, too.
First, a little background: A few weeks ago, it seemed plausible that Covid-19 might be in permanent retreat, at least in communities with high vaccination rates. But the Delta variant has changed the situation. The number of cases is rising in all 50 states.
Although vaccinated people remain almost guaranteed to avoid serious symptoms, Delta has put the unvaccinated at greater risk of contracting the virus — and, by extension, of hospitalization and death. The Covid death rate in recent days has been significantly higher in states with low vaccination rates than in those with higher rates:
What helps move people from vaccine skeptical to vaccinated? The Kaiser polls point to three main themes.
1. Seeing that millions of other Americans have been safely vaccinated.
2. Hearing pro-vaccine messages from doctors, friends and relatives.
3. Learning that not being vaccinated will prevent people from doing some things.
Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Significantly Less’ Effective Against Delta Variant: Israeli PM – Epoch Times
Israel’s top officials are warning that Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine is “significantly less” effective at combating the “Delta” variant of the CCP virus.
“We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told reporters and cabinet members on July 17. He didn’t elaborate.
The Delta strain, which was first identified in India, now makes up a significant portion of the new COVID-19 cases in the United States and the United Kingdom, according to health officials.
Bennett said that in “Britain, in recent days, we have seen a jump in the number of children who are being hospitalized on a daily basis.”
“This is a development that we are aware of; we are dealing with it rationally and responsibly,” he said.
For months, Israel has relied heavily on administering Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, which uses mRNA technology. Officials have said that more than 5.7 million Israelis have received at least one dose of the vaccine.
[editor’s note: the efficacy may be as low as 30 % for the vaccinated]
Number of Deaths Reported After COVID Vaccines Jumps by More Than 2,000 in 1 Week – The Defender
Data released today [last Friday] show that between Dec. 14, 2020 and July 2, 2021, a total of 438,441 total adverse events were reported to VAERS, including 9,048 deaths — an increase of 2,063 over the previous week. There were 41,015 serious injury reported during the same time period — up 6,950 compared with last week.
How to stay safe as covid-19 cases from the delta variant are on the rise – Washington Post
The United States is at an unprecedented juncture of the pandemic, where just under half the population is fully vaccinated, health and safety restrictions are looser than they have been in 18 months, and cases of new coronavirus infections are once again on the rise after months of decline.
“The pandemic is not over, and delta changes the calculus,” Joel Wertheim, an associate professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health at the University of California at San Diego, told The Washington Post.
As the delta variant spreads, the messaging from public health experts and officials is unequivocal: Vaccines are the best protection against severe illness and hospitalization. More than 97 percent of new hospitalizations from the delta variant are from people who are unvaccinated, making what Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, calls “a pandemic of the unvaccinated.”
Health experts said even though the delta variant is more infectious than the original strain that first took hold in the United States last year, precautions can help both vaccinated and unvaccinated people limit their risk.
… “I think the CDC in May made a mistake,” Landon said. “They made a recommendation based on biological science, but not any social science. Unfortunately, the policy of letting people self-sort into vaccinated and unvaccinated resulted in a sort of behavioral science problem.”
Several experts consulted by The Post said it is safe for fully vaccinated people to spend time indoors with others who are fully vaccinated. The shots have proved widely effective, even in crowded indoor settings. But they said it is nonetheless a smart practice to continue wearing masks in environments where there might be people who are not inoculated.
… On the spectrum of risk, an outdoor setting for fully vaccinated, masked and socially distanced people is the safest — but maybe not an ideal party situation.
Ezell said it’s a good idea to mask up or socially distance if you’re at a large gathering outdoors and don’t know whether the people around you are vaccinated as “the delta variant has shown that it’s rampant and unforgiving in its ability to spread.”
… “The data from the U.K. suggest that the protection from a single dose of the vaccine is low for the delta variant,” Grad said. “There’s a big jump in the level of protection with the second dose for the delta variant specifically.”
… For children who aren’t old enough to get a vaccine, Landon said adults and older siblings can reduce the risk to these children by avoiding crowded indoor settings and wearing a mask inside.
Vaccinated Britons now make up almost half of Covid cases in the country, a symptom-tracking study suggested today — but there are signs the third wave may have already peaked.
King’s College London scientists estimated 33,118 people were catching the virus daily in the week ending July 10, compared to 33,723 in the previous seven-day spell.
But 47 per cent of cases are among those who have received at least one dose of the Covid vaccine, surging upwards from around a quarter at the start of June.
This does not mean the jabs do not work. Scientists have always been honest that they are not perfect and millions will still be vulnerable to infection even after getting both doses.
Infections are rising fastest among young Britons — many of whom have only received one dose. But the ZOE app counts these people as ‘vaccinated’ even though they are not yet fully protected by two doses. A second dose of all vaccines has been shown to be much more effective than a first dose against the Indian ‘Delta’ variant.
Professor Tim Spector, who leads the study run with health-technology firm ZOE, said the shift in trend was likely because the virus was ‘running out’ of non-jabbed Britons to infect, with nearly 90 per cent of adults having now received at least one dose.
Studies show a single dose is less effective at preventing infection, although it still drastically slashes the risk of hospitalisation and death. Jabs are also slightly weaker against the Indian variant, which triggered the third wave.
Leak Exposes Global Abuse Of Cyber-Spying Weapon To Target Politicians, Activists, & Journalists – ZeroHedge
As Ed Snowden warned in a tweet when the story broke this weekend, “this leak is going to be the story of the year.”
Southfront reports that an Israeli company’s spyware was used in attempted and successful hacks of 37 smartphones belonging to journalists, government officials and human rights activists around the world, according to an investigation by 17 media organizations, published on July 18th.
One of the organizations, The Washington Post, said the Pegasus spyware licensed by Israel-based NSO Group also was used to target phones belonging to two women close to Jamal Khashoggi, a Post columnist murdered at a Saudi consulate in Turkey in 2018.
One of them was his fiancee, and she and the other woman were targeted both before and after his death.
The Guardian, another of the media outlets, said the investigation suggested “widespread and continuing abuse” of NSO’s hacking software, described as malware that infects smartphones to enable the extraction of messages, photos and emails; record calls; and secretly activate microphones.
The investigation highlights widespread and continuing abuse of NSO’s hacking spyware called ‘Pegasus’ which the company confirms is only intended for use against terrorist groups, drug and human traffickers, and criminals.
Pegasus is a very advanced malware that infects iOS and Android devices to allow operators of the spyware to copy messages, photos, calls and other data, including secretly activate microphones and cameras.
Based on the investigation, the leak contains a list of 50,000 phone numbers that have been identified as those of people of interest by clients of NSO since 2016.
[editor’s note: also read: iPhone security no match for NSO spyware, despite Apple’s security claims]
Moderna Doses First Patient in Study of Flu mRNA Vaccine Candidate – Pharma News
Moderna recently announced that the first patient has been dosed in the Phase 1/2 study of its quadrivalent seasonal flu mRNA vaccine candidate.
mRNA-1010 is Moderna’s first seasonal flu vaccine candidate to enter clinical trials. It targets lineages recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to prevent the flu, including influenza A H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B Yamagata and Victoria.
The randomized, observer-blind study will evaluate the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of the vaccine candidate, mRNA-1010, in 180 healthy adults 18 years of age and older in the US.
“We are pleased to have begun this Phase 1/2 study of mRNA-1010, our first mRNA seasonal flu vaccine candidate to enter the clinic. We expect that our seasonal influenza vaccine candidates will be an important component of our future combination respiratory vaccines,” Stéphane Bancel, chief executive officer of Moderna, said in the announcement.
“Respiratory combination vaccines are an important pillar of our overall mRNA vaccine strategy. We believe that the advantages of mRNA vaccines include the ability to combine different antigens to protect against multiple viruses and the ability to rapidly respond to the evolution of respiratory viruses, such as influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV,” Bancel continued.
Seasonal flu epidemics vary in severity each year, causing respiratory illness and putting a significant burden on the healthcare system. About three to five million severe cases of the flu and 290,000 to 650,000 flu-related respiratory deaths occur each year globally.
Dysbiosis in gut microbiota may cause severe secondary infection in COVID-19 patients – News-Medical
An interesting study led by scientists in the U.S. has recently revealed that the microbial community in the gut is directly affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and that virus-mediated gut microbiome dysbiosis may cause severe secondary infections in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. The study is currently available on the bioRxiv* preprint server.
… The study reveals that SARS-CoV-2-mediated dysbiosis in the gut microbiome is directly associated with the systemic secondary infection observed in COVID-19 patients. Moreover, the study indicates that severe secondary infections can be induced by gut-to-blood translocation of bacterial populations following gut microbiome dysbiosis.
Economic panel says COVID-19 recession ended April 2020, lasting just two months – The Hill
The recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic was the shortest economic downturn in modern U.S. history, a panel of economic experts declared Monday.
A panel of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonprofit, said that the coronavirus recession spanned late February through early April, roughly two months from start to finish.
NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee measures recessions from the peak of economic activity before the downturn through the lowest point before it began recovering. U.S. economic activity peaked in late February before the emergence of the pandemic shut down much of the country and began recovering sometime in April, the committee said.
“The recent downturn had different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions,” the panel said.
“Nonetheless, the committee concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warranted the designation of this episode as a recession, even though the downturn was briefer than earlier contractions,” it added.
The shortest recession declared by NBER until Monday was six months spanning the first half of 1980.
Survey Shows Majority of Unvaccinated Americans Believe Microchips Are in Vaccines – Newsweek
A new survey from YouGov and The Economist released Thursday reveals a startling number of Americans will not get vaccinated due to concerns about side effects, “microchip” implantation and political motivations.
One in five Americans believe that the U.S. government is using the vaccine to plant microchip tracking devices into people, the survey found. A significant number of those who reject vaccines also cite the belief that inoculation in general causes autism.
As COVID-19 cases among the unvaccinated surge nationwide, vaccine conspiracies and rejection of the danger posed by COVID-19 appear the primary obstacles in containing the spread of the virus. Jeff Zients, coordinator of the White House coronavirus team, confirmed in a press briefing that unvaccinated Americans “account for virtually all recent Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
French Face 6 Months In Jail For Entering A Bar Or Restaurant Without A COVID Pass
Indonesia is the pandemic’s new epicenter, with the highest count of new infections.
Flooding in Western Europe killed at least 183 people, with hundreds still missing. “The German language has no words, I think, for the devastation,” Chancellor Angela Merkel said.
55 People Working at the Olympics Have Tested Positive for COVID Since July
Private Israeli spyware used to hack cellphones of journalists, activists worldwide
Overall, 61 people tested positive for the virus since July 1 inside the Olympic Village, though an outbreak among the South African men’s soccer team became the first cases identified.
Tokyo Olympics Biggest Sponsor Toyota Withdraws as Games in Crisis Before Opening Ceremony. Dozens of corporations who, according to the outlet, paid more than $3 billion in sponsorship deals to the postponed games are now weighing up whether to press on with advertising or pull out amid strong public criticism of the event.
On the eve of Britain’s “Freedom Day” — when most COVID restrictions lifted — cases have spiked and Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in quarantine after a recent exposure.
UK Won’t Vaccinate Most Children, Teenagers for COVID, Will Wait
Bangkok Orders Businesses to Close for 2 Weeks or Face Large Fines
The Netherlands Asks Citizens to Work From Home, Lifting Lockdown a Mistake
Bangladesh Lifts Lockdown for Festival, Stoking Fears of COVID Surge
Canada will open its borders to fully vaccinated Americans on August 9
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Be Cautious As Stock Market Internals Are Deteriorating
After Los Angeles County reinstated indoor mask requirements, the sheriff said the rules were “not backed by science” and refused to enforce them.
The American tennis star Coco Gauff tested positive and will not participate in the Tokyo Olympics.
Burned-out landscapes and dwindling water supplies are threatening Napa Valley, the heart of America’s wine industry.
Antifa Clashes With Police Outside Los Angeles Spa Amid Protests; Dozens Arrested
‘A Good Sign’: Fewer People File for Unemployment in States Cutting Federal Bonus, Data Shows
2 More Texas House Democrats Test Positive for COVID-19 After Fleeing to DC
U.S., allies accuse China of hacking Microsoft and condoning other cyberattacks
Extreme heat bakes Northwest and northern Rockies amid high fire danger
Tennis player Coco Gauff tested positive for COVID-19, forcing her to drop out of the Olympics, as did an alternate for the U.S. women’s gymnastics team.
Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) said schools can’t make unvaccinated students quarantine if they’re exposed to the virus this fall.
A CBS News poll found that 74% of unvaccinated adults would not get the vaccine even if their own doctor recommended it.
mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines induce memory T cell response similar to natural infection
COVID-19 antibodies persist at least nine months after infection
Biden Says ‘Facebook Isn’t Killing People’ But Must Fight Vaccine Lies
COVID-19 outbreaks reported at Boy Scout camp, nursing home in NC county
Surgeon general backs localized mask mandates
Americans Warned Against Traveling to UK as Delta Variant Surges
Masks Should be Mandatory in Schools, American Academy of Pediatrics Says
Group Stages Maskless Shopping Protests to Defy LA’s Indoor Mask Mandate
GOP Congressman Says Military Will Lose Members if COVID Vaccine Required
Trump Claims Americans ‘Refusing’ Vaccine Due to Mistrust of Biden Admin
Delta Variant Not a Concern for Over Half of Unvaccinated Americans: Poll
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
June 2021 Credit Access Survey: Credit Applications Were Approved At A Higher Rate
Cholesterol Meds DOUBLE Your Dementia Risk (Protect Your Brain!) 2021
What Has Been The Early Impact Of States Halting Federal Jobless Benefits?
Could Renewed Social Unrest Hinder The Recovery?
How NSO Group’s Pegasus Spyware Was Found On Jamal Khashoggi’s Fiancee’s Phone
How Effective Is The First Shot Of The Pfizer Or Moderna Vaccine?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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