Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 26.1 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 27.6 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 20.4 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are at an elevated 154,316
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths today rose to 1,467
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at a record 76,830
- WHO warns vaccine Immunity to the coronavirus may last years, new research suggests
- Here’s Why COVID-19 Mortality Has Dropped
- More Data Shows High Efficacy for Pfizer, BioNTech Vaccine
- First rapid at-home COVID-19 test approved by FDA – How To Get Your Hands On One
- Nursing home cases surge to all-time high as COVID-19 sweeps US
- CDC quietly removes guidance pushing for school reopenings
- EXPLAINER: What’s with the confusion over masks?
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, possible mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, political rallies / voting, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line) For Week ending 07NOV2020
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Is the Pandemic Really Out of Control?
Too many headlines are telling you the pandemic is out of control. Anyone with analytical abilities knows this is not true. For this to be true, the rate of growth needs to continue to rise.
No doubt, the pandemic is elevated and we must remain vigilant.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked about one week ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating.
This graph demonstrates that the recent actions to contain the pandemic are beginning to bite.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
WHO warns vaccine won’t help fight current wave of Covid infections – CNBC
Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program, said that a coronavirus vaccine this winter won’t help countries beat back the current wave of Covid-19 infections.
“We’re not there with vaccines yet. We will get there, but we’re not there,” Ryan said during a social Q&A event. “And many countries are going through this wave, and they’re going to go through this wave and continue through this wave without vaccines.”
The outcomes of severely-ill patients could also grow worse in some countries with overburdened health systems since health-care workers are forced to ration their time and attention, he said.
“Not only do we have full hospitals, but in those hospitals, patients won’t do so well,” he said. “There’s only one way to stop more people from needing to go to the hospital, and that’s to stop more people getting exposed and getting infected.”
10 things you need in case family gets COVID-19 – USA Today
Hopefully, no one in your household contracts the coronavirus, but it’s always best to prepare for the worst. Here are all the things you should have on hand if you or a family member gets COVID-19, as recommended by the CDC.
- Hand soap
- Disinfecting wipes and spray
- Hand sanitizer
- Thermometers
- Trash bags
- Tissues
- Face masks
- Disposable gloves
- Humidifiers and air purifiers
- Pulse oximeters
Here’s Why COVID-19 Mortality Has Dropped – MedPage
Healthcare workers are now seeing unprecedented increases in COVID-19 diagnoses and hospitalizations — but there hasn’t been a congruent rise in mortality rates even as case counts set records.
In fact, the COVID-19 mortality rate in the U.S. has fallen since the start of the pandemic.
That decline has no single, clear explanation, but experts have pointed to a host of contributing factors, including a higher proportion of cases among the young, increased knowledge of how to treat COVID patients, better therapies, and less overcrowding in hospitals.
… Some believe that the shift in infections from old to young is the primary explanation for the drop in mortality. A recent medRxiv preprint concluded that the relationship between infection fatality rate and age may be exponential.
… some studies show that mortality has decreased among older patients, too. In a cohort of more than 5,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients at NYU, researchers found that mortality rates dropped 18 percentage points from the start of the pandemic, falling from 26% in March to 8% in August. Christopher Petrilli, MD, a hospitalist at NYU Langone and co-author of the study, told MedPage Today that even after adjusting for age differences, there was a considerable reduction in COVID deaths.
… As cases continue to rise across the country, experts worry that the pandemic will still result in high absolute death tolls among all age groups.
First rapid at-home COVID-19 test approved by FDA – NY Post
The Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday approved the first rapid at-home COVID-19 test.
The FDA granted emergency use authorization to the 30-minute test kit from California-based manufacturer Lucira Health. The test is prescription-only and solely approved for those 14 and older.
“This new testing option is an important diagnostic advancement to address the pandemic and reduce the public burden of disease transmission,” FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn said in a statement.
“Today’s action underscores the FDA’s ongoing commitment to expand access to COVID-19 testing.”
The test works with just a couple of steps. First, users take a nasal swab, which they then place into a vial that plugs into a portable testing unit.
Within 30 minutes, the device interprets the results and displays whether the person tested positive or negative for COVID-19.
How to Get the FDA Approved Lucira COVID-19 At-Home Testing Kit – Newsweek
The at-home COVID test is available for people aged 14 and older. If someone under 14 is suspected of having COVID-19, the test must be administered by a health care provider.
Someone wanting the at-home test must be suspected of having COVID-19 by their health care provider, who will then authorize a prescription for the test.
The at-home COVID-19 test requires a self-collected nasal swab sample which is swirled in a vial and placed in a test unit. In under 30 minutes, the results will be displayed with a light-up display.
Immunity to the coronavirus may last years, new research suggests – Seattle Times
How long might immunity to the coronavirus last? Years, maybe even decades, according to a new study – the most hopeful answer yet to a question that has shadowed plans for widespread vaccination.
Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data shows. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.
The research, published online, has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. But it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date.
“That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology who co-led the new study.
The findings are likely to come as a relief to experts worried that immunity to the virus might be short-lived, and that vaccines might have to be administered repeatedly to keep the pandemic under control.
And the research squares with another recent finding: that survivors of SARS, caused by another coronavirus, still carry certain important immune cells 17 years after recovering.
… A study published last week also found that people who have recovered from COVID-19 have powerful and protective killer immune cells even when antibodies are not detectable.
These studies “are all by and large painting the same picture, which is that once you get past those first few critical weeks, the rest of the response looks pretty conventional,” said Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona.
[editor’s note: this article describes why immunity lingers and is worth a full read. Remember this is only another straw in the understanding of COVID immunity which may or may not stand up to further scrutiny.]
EXPLAINER: What’s with the confusion over masks? – AP
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has long advised people to wear masks because they help prevent people who are infected – whether they know it or not – from spreading the coronavirus.
But last week, the CDC added a new reason: masks can also protect wearers who are not infected, though to a lesser degree.
The agency referred to a study led by Japanese researchers that found masks block about 60% of the amount of virus that comes out of an infected person. When an uninfected person wearing a mask is near an infected person who isn’t wearing one, the amount of virus the uninfected person inhaled fell by up to 50%.
But when BOTH people are wearing masks, that produced the best result. The decline in virus particles reaching the second person was close to 70%.
So, if everyone wears a mask when social distancing is not feasible, the infection rate will be cut, experts say.
It’s not a perfect solution. Hand-washing, keeping a distance, and being in well-ventilated areas is important.
[editor’s note: much of the confusion over mask-wearing was caused by early guidance from the experts and WHO who advised against mask-wearing.]
Demanding Thanksgiving Abstinence Is Not Public Health – MedPage
This week, a survey reported that 38% of people planned to gather with 10 or more people for Thanksgiving, and just a third said they would wear a mask. Twitter reacted predictably. Public health experts and doctors pointed to rising COVID-19 case numbers in many states and scolded (often in all caps): DO NOT HAVE THANKSGIVING.
Of course, there is no doubt that large gatherings, indoors, and without masks is a recipe for the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, but at the same time, I worry that the abstinence-only approach — the just-don’t-have-Thanksgiving approach — is not the right way for public health experts to respond.
First, I take the poll seriously. I do not doubt that many Americans strongly desire to gather for Thanksgiving. If anything, I worry the poll is an underestimate, as people are often reluctant to divulge socially unacceptable desires.
Second, I think public health experts should not just listen, but hear what people are saying. Americans are saying that despite all the damage done by COVID-19, despite the rising cases and at-capacity ICUs around the country, their desire for human connection is so great, that they are willing to take the risk and have Thanksgiving. Americans are, in effect, expressing the longing and desperation of their soul.
Instead of admonishing people to not gather, public health experts should begin from the starting point that people really want this — correction, people are saying they need this. Given that the desire is so strong, what advice can we give to minimize the risk? How can we reduce — not eliminate risk.
Public health then becomes a series of interlocked questions: What advice should we be providing about home quarantining and testing prior to the gathering? What can be done at the gathering site itself? Can we do as much as possible outside? Should governments close streets, set up tables, and provide outdoor heat lamps? Would that not be better than driving people inside? And, what can we do after Thanksgiving, how long should people isolate themselves before resuming daily socially distanced activities?
In other words, what we need is to assume people will meet: Given that, what can we do to lower the risk?
[editor’s note: This bulllshit of saying it is best to forget Thanksgiving is what happens when you follow the guidance of those whose vision is only on mitigating the pandemic. It is necessary for people to get together – and it is the duty of the public health officials to tell you how to do it as safe as possible – and not to tell you to just forget Thanksgiving. I worry that there will be a rash of suicides and mental health issues. Also read: Thanksgiving Day Dilemma: Should You Travel Or Stay Home?]
More Data Shows High Efficacy for Pfizer, BioNTech Vaccine – GenomeWeb
An analysis of updated data indicates the experimental SARS-CoV-2 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech has a 95 percent efficacy, the Wall Street Journal reports.
More than 43,000 individuals have been enrolled in the companies’ Phase III trial, with half receiving two shots of the mRNA-based candidate vaccine and half receiving placebo. Last week, the companies announced that an analysis of initial data suggested their mRNA-based candidate vaccine had a more than 90 percent efficacy. The new analysis is based on the development of 170 COVID-19 cases within their trial cohort. According to the companies, 162 cases occurred in the placebo group and eight occurred in the vaccine group, indicating the vaccine is highly effective. Ten of the COVID-19 cases were severe, and nine of those were among participants who received the vaccine.
Pfizer and BioNTech add that their candidate vaccine appears to work just as well across age, gender, race, and ethnic demographics, and that it appears to be well tolerated.
Nursing home cases surge to all-time high as COVID-19 sweeps US – USA Today
New coronavirus cases have surged to an all-time high at nursing homes across the country despite federal efforts to shield residents through aggressive testing and visitor restrictions, a new report shows.
Federal data shows 10,279 COVID-19 cases during the week of Nov. 1, the most recent data available. The figures surpassed the previous high of 9,903 cases in late July, according to a report by the American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living.
The surge in cases among the nation’s most vulnerable residents comes as cases, hospitalizations and deaths surge nationwide. Industry representatives say that when cases spread in a community, it’s difficult to shield nursing home residents despite rules that restrict visitors.
“We have been begging people the last eight months to wear a mask, socially distance and to be careful,” said Mark Parkinson, president and CEO of AHCA/NCAL. “Unfortunately, the public has not listened or complied.”
CDC quietly removes guidance pushing for school reopenings – The Hill
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has quietly removed controversial guidance from its website that pushed for schools to reopen in the fall and downplayed the transmission risks of COVID-19 to children and others.
The documents, one of which was reportedly written by political appointees outside of the CDC, stated that children appear to be at lower risk for contracting COVID-19 compared to adults and that children are unlikely to be major spreaders of the virus.
The CDC removed two guidance documents from its website in late October with no public announcement.
When reached for comment, a CDC spokesperson said, “Some of the prior content was outdated and as new scientific information has emerged the site has been updated to reflect current knowledge about COVID-19 and schools.”
While kids are far less likely than adults to become seriously ill from COVID-19, less was known at the time about what role children play in spreading the virus to others including teachers and staff.
[editor’s note: all activities carry risk – and going to school carries more risk to contract COVID than staying at home. However, learning from home is creating a documented learning deficiency which public health officials do not care about as they are only graded on how well they can mitigate the pandemic.]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
In the “Covid-free world” of Nova Scotia, where tight lockdowns and border closures limited the spread of the virus, life goes on much as it did a year agoBrazil to receive first doses of China’s Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine
Southern Italy’s Ills: The pandemic has heightened the plight of those seeking medical care in public hospitals in the country’s economically underdeveloped south.
Berlin Police Disperse Anti-Lockdown Protesters With Water Cannons
South Australia Enters ‘Circuit Breaker’ Coronavirus Lockdown
WHO announces end to Ebola outbreak in Congo
EU States Agonize Over Rules on Rapid COVID Tests, Document Says
A mid-stage trial shows that a Chinese made Covid-19 vaccine seems to be safe, according to a study published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases Tuesday.
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
States are renewing their push for more federal money to deal with the punishing economic fallout from the resurgent outbreak and to help them distribute a vaccine when one becomes widely available sometime in 2021.
The surge is sending Americans back to stores to stockpile again, leaving shelves bare and forcing retailers to put limits on purchases.
In less than a week, six members of Congress announced they had tested positive for COVID-19.
900 on Mayo Clinic staff have contracted coronavirus in last two weeks
Montana Gov. Steve Bullock announced a new round of directives Tuesday, which will limit crowd size and close bars, restaurants and casinos at 10 p.m.
Pfizer announced that its COVID-19 vaccine is closer to 95% effective — not 90% as the company originally reported — and it plans to apply for an emergency use authorization very shortly.
The Department of Health and Human Services has abandoned a $15 million ad campaign featuring celebrities discussing COVID-19, part of a larger project to “defeat despair” over the pandemic.
The FDA will post all scientific reviews for COVID-19 vaccines, drugs, and biologics in an effort to be more transparent, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn, MD, announced.
Some hospitals are saying they may restrict use of Eli Lilly’s bamlanivimab antibody treatment for COVID-19 due to a supply shortage.
North Dakota’s COVID-19 mortality rate is higher than that of any other state — and any other country, a study found; its neighbor South Dakota is in third place.
The pandemic has led to an unusual alliance between suicide prevention advocates and gun rights supporters.
Major measles outbreaks are expected in 2021 because parents have been forgoing their children’s vaccinations due to concerns over the coronavirus.
New York State authorities seized thousands of dollars’ worth of products made from bear bile, thought by some to be a cure for COVID-19; the products were being sold at traditional medicine shops in New York City’s Chinatown.
Raw onions, lemon juice, garlic paste: they’re all easy to swallow if COVID-19 has left you with no sense of taste.
The hunt for N95 masks can lead to a chaotic “gray market.”
Ohio Governor Orders 3-Week Statewide Curfew As Coronavirus Cases Rise
New York City schools to shut down amid rise in coronavirus cases
35 Percent of Hospitals in Eight States Face Staff Shortages Amid Epidemic
Pennsylvania’s New COVID Guidelines, Wearing Masks at Home Rule Explained
1 in Every 1,000 North Dakota Residents Have Died from COVID-19
Ohio Gov Announces Three-Week Curfew After COVID Case Number Triples
Boston mayor tells college students: If you go home for Thanksgiving, stay home until spring.
U.S. health-care workers, the first in line for a coronavirus vaccine once authorized by the Food and Drug Administration, could get their shots in about a month.
Google employee productivity is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels thanks to a combination of leadership coaching and employee surveys, CFO Ruth Porat said.
Delta Air Lines said on Wednesday it will keep middle seats empty on its flights through next March, an extension of the social distancing policy it put in place at the start of the pandemic.
The German biotech company BioNTech is working on a formula for its vaccine that would allow it to be shipped at room temperature
BioNTech and Pfizer will seek emergency US authorization for vaccine on Friday
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
October 2020 Sea Container Imports Continue At Record Pace, Exports Not So Much
October 2020 Residential Building Growth Stumbles
The COVID-19 Recession In Historical Perspective
Retail, Transport, And Warehousing Jobs Soar In October 2020
How Effective Are The Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates?
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 16 November 2020 Rose 49 Cents From A Year Ago
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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