Written by Steven Hansen
The seven-day rolling average of new cases in the U.S. continues to stay in a tight band but deaths have declined to levels not seen in the last few months. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Researchers Announce ‘Major Breakthrough’ That Will Save Lives of Coronavirus Patients
- Beijing municipal government orders partial lockdown for city and elevates emergency response amid latest outbreak
- United and other US airlines get more serious on face mask requirements
- China’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows promise in human trials
- Business owners and some government officials face anger and threats over face mask requirements
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing. This virus is defying methods to wipe it out.
Even though the number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, the U.S. continues to be a smaller and smaller portion of the new global coronavirus cases. It is interesting that although American’s believe they have the best health care system in the world, the mortality rate is little different than the world average.
Over the past two days, the daily deaths in the U.S. have declined to levels not seen in the last 2.5 months – even though the rolling averages daily new cases have not declined in the past month. Are we learning how to treat COVID-19?
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 16 June 2020:
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Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Researchers Announce ‘Major Breakthrough’ That Will Save Lives of Coronavirus Patients – Western Journal
[editor’s note: the information in this post was published by most major media outlets including specialty medical blogs]
British researchers claim a steroid currently on the drug market could be a life-saving treatment for COVID-19 patients.
In a recent trial, the drug cut the risk of death by about a third for individuals on ventilators.
Deaths of patients on oxygen were cut by a fifth, according to the BBC.
“This is a result that shows that if patients who have COVID-19 and are on ventilators or are on oxygen are given dexamethasone, it will save lives, and it will do so at a remarkably low cost,” Oxford University professor Martin Landray, one of the leaders of the drug trial, told Reuters.
UK funds human trials of potential COVID-19 RNA vaccine – Reuters
Scientists at Imperial College London will start the first clinical trials of a potential COVID-19 vaccine this week with more than 45 million pounds ($56.50 million) in backing from the British government and philanthropic donors.
The trials are the first human tests of a new technology which the researchers say could transform vaccine development by enabling rapid responses to emerging diseases such as the COVID-19 infection caused by the new coronavirus.
Robin Shattock, a professor at Imperial’s department of infectious disease, said that rather than using a part of the virus, as many vaccines do, this potential vaccine uses synthetic strands of the virus’ genetic material – RNA – which are packaged inside tiny fat droplets.
When injected, it instructs muscle cells to produce virus proteins to protect against future infection. In animal tests, the vaccine was shown to be safe and showed “encouraging signs of an effective immune response”, Shattock’s team said in a statement.
Beijing municipal government orders partial lockdown for city and elevates emergency response amid latest outbreak – South China Morning Post
Beijing on Tuesday announced a partial lockdown for the capital city and elevated its emergency response for the coronavirus to the second-highest level after reporting a cluster of infections tied to a food market.
Chen Bei, deputy secretary general of the Beijing Municipal Government, said at a televised press conference on Tuesday evening that all neighbourhoods in districts that have been classified as high- and medium-risk areas will be closed immediately and all residents must stay home and take nucleic acid tests to confirm if they have been infected. No visitors will be allowed into these areas.
In addition, all primary and secondary schools will switch to online learning and all universities will be closed. Entertainment venues will shut down as well.
Chen said that despite the new outbreaks it would not be necessary to suspend production, but businesses are encouraged to adopt staggered office hours and work-from-home practices to lower the risk of transmission.
Study: Think Twice About Reusing KN95 or Surgical Masks – MedPage Today
For sterilizing N95, KN95 and surgical masks, plasma vapor hydrogen peroxide was superior to chlorine dioxide in preserving the products’ filtration efficiency in a lab study.
Masks sterilized once with chlorine dioxide showed a marked reduction in overall filtration efficiency especially among KN95s and surgical masks, reported Changjie Cai, PhD, and Evan Floyd, PhD, both of the University of Oklahoma in Oklahoma City, in a JAMA Network Open research letter.
Mean filtration efficiencies prior to sterilization were 97.3% for N95 masks, 96.7% for KN95 masks (a Chinese version of N95s), and 95.1% for surgical face masks.
When post-sterilization filtration efficiency was stratified by aerosol particle size, the mean for KN95s and surgical masks dropped to below 50% for particles of approximately 300 nm when sterilized with chlorine dioxide. N95 mask efficiency decreased to approximately 86% with chlorine dioxide for particles of 300 nm, though overall filtration efficiency was approximately 95%.
Little degradation was seen with plasma vapor hydrogen peroxide at all aerosol sizes, the researchers found.
China starts intensive testing of all imported meat for coronavirus – Financial Post
China’s customs authorities have started testing all shipments of imported meat for the coronavirus, while officials in some major cities are also checking the products at domestic markets, after a fresh outbreak of the pathogen was linked to a wholesale seafood and meat market in Beijing.
Port authorities are conducting nucleic acid tests on all shipments of imported meat, said a trading executive with a major supplier, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. Customs officials have also started testing every consignment within shipments, instead of just taking some samples, he said.
The ramp-up in testing comes after the outbreak was traced to a chopping board used by a seller of imported salmon. Salmon was removed from supermarkets and grocery platforms in major cities. Customs officials were not immediately available to comment when Bloomberg tried to contact them.
China’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows promise in human trials – Reuters
China National Biotec Group (CNBG) said on Tuesday its experimental coronavirus vaccine has triggered antibodies in clinical trials and the company plans late-stage human trials in foreign countries.
No vaccines have been solidly proven to be able to effectively protect people from the virus that has killed more than 400,000 people, while multiple candidates are in various stages of development globally.
The vaccine, developed by a Wuhan-based research institute affiliated to CNBG’s parent company Sinopharm, was found to have induced high-level antibodies in all inoculated people without serious adverse reaction, according to the preliminary data from a clinical trial initiated in April involving 1,120 healthy participants aged between 18 and 59.
… China has five vaccine candidates for COVID-19 in human trials, the most in any country.
Coronavirus Cases Rise Sharply in Prisons Even as They Plateau Nationwide – New York Times
Cases of the coronavirus in prisons and jails across the United States have soared in recent weeks, even as the overall daily infection rate in the nation has remained relatively flat.
The number of prison inmates known to be infected has doubled during the past month to more than 68,000. Prison deaths tied to the coronavirus have also risen, by 73 percent since mid-May. By now, the five largest known clusters of the virus in the United States are not at nursing homes or meatpacking plants, but inside correction institutions, according to data The New York Times has been collecting about confirmed coronavirus cases since the pandemic reached American shores.
And the risk of more cases appears imminent: The swift growth in virus cases behind bars comes as demonstrators arrested as part of large police brutality protests across the nation have often been placed in crowded holding cells in local jails.
A muddled, uneven response by corrections officials to testing and care for inmates and workers is complicating the spread of the coronavirus. In interviews, prison and jail officials acknowledged that their approach has largely been based on trial and error, and that an effective, consistent response for U.S. correctional facilities remains elusive.
Nursing homes go unchecked as fatalities mount – Politico
Thousands of nursing homes across the country have not been checked to see if staff are following proper procedures to prevent coronavirus transmission, a form of community spread that is responsible for more than a quarter of the nation’s Covid-19 fatalities.
Only a little more than half of the nation’s nursing homes had received inspections, according to data released earlier this month, which prompted a fresh mandate from Medicare and Medicaid chief Seema Verma that states complete the checks by July 31 or risk losing federal recovery funds.
A POLITICO survey of state officials, however, suggests that the lack of oversight of nursing homes has many roots. Many states that were hit hard by the virus say they chose to provide protective gear to frontline health workers rather than inspectors, delaying in-person checks for weeks if not months. Some states chose to assess facilities remotely, conducting interviews over the phone and analyzing documentation, a process many experts consider inadequate.
In places where state officials claimed that in-person inspections have taken place, the reports found no issues in the overwhelming majority of cases, even as Covid-19 claimed more than 31,000 deaths in nursing homes. Less than 3 percent of the more than 5,700 inspection surveys the federal government released this month had any infection control deficiencies, according to a report on Thursday by the Center for Medicare Advocacy, a nonprofit patient activist group.
Black Americans most likely to know a COVID-19 victim – Associated Press
African Americans are disproportionately likely to say a family member or close friend has died of COVID-19 or respiratory illness since March, according to a series of surveys conducted since April that lays bare how black Americans have borne the brunt of the pandemic.
Eleven percent of African Americans say they were close with someone who has died from the coronavirus, compared with 5% of Americans overall and 4% of white Americans.
The findings are based on data from three COVID Impact surveys conducted between April and June by NORC at the University of Chicago for the Data Foundation about the pandemic’s effect on the physical, mental and social health of Americans.
… Pre-existing conditions and limited access to health care have been identified as reasons black Americans have been particularly susceptible to the virus. Experts and medical professionals say the longstanding effects of structural racism and generational trauma exacted upon black Americans in the centuries following slavery also cannot be ignored.
United and other US airlines get more serious on face mask requirements – CNN
US airline passengers who figured face mask enforcements had more bark than bite could end up getting bit later this week.
Major US airlines in Airlines for America, the carriers’ industry group, announced Monday June 15 that they intended to more strictly enforce mask wearing aboard their planes, including potentially banning passengers who refuse to wear a mask.
The announcement comes in lieu of a federal regulation requiring all passengers to wear masks — the sort of enforceable measure that governs requirements to wear seatbelts and not smoke.
US government is exploring 14 Covid-19 vaccine candidates and plans to narrow list to 7 – CNN
The US government is exploring 14 Covid-19 vaccine candidates out of more than 100 currently in development worldwide, with plans to narrow the list to about seven before further testing, senior Trump administration officials said during a telephone briefing on Tuesday.
Large-scale, randomized trials would then be conducted with the most promising candidates from those seven.
How they will decide on the seven is an ongoing discussion but the criteria will be those that are safest, most effective and technologies that lend themselves to faster manufacturing to scale.
More on the vaccine candidates: Some of the 14 vaccine candidate options are already in clinical trials with US government support.
The senior administration officials did not specify which 14 candidates are being considered, but some vaccine candidates have been previously identified receiving government support.
Business owners and some government officials face anger and threats over face mask requirements. – New York Times
… the backlash facing officials who promote face mask requirements, as face masks increasingly become a flash point in the nation’s political and cultural wars. Support for face masks has often fallen along partisan lines, despite federal health recommendations and recent research that suggest that face masks could be critical to stopping the spread of the virus. Mr. Trump has largely declined to wear a mask in public.
Officials and business owners alike have faced pushback. In the Houston area, the county judge was sued over an order requiring face masks. Costco faced threats of boycotts over a similar requirement for its stores. And in Stillwater, Okla., north of Oklahoma City, an order requiring residents to wear face masks inside stores and restaurants was quickly rescinded last month, after an uprising among customers.
In a matter of hours on the first day of the order, store employees in the area were “threatened with physical violence and showered with verbal abuse,” the city manager, Norman McNickle, said in a strongly-worded statement lifting the order.
“We cannot, in clear conscience, put our local business community in harm’s way, nor can the police be everywhere,” he said. “It is unfortunate and distressing that those who refuse and threaten violence are so self-absorbed as to not follow what is a simple show of respect and kindness to others.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Canada- U.S. border to resed to non-essential travel until July 21
Spain plans €150 billion of public investment as part of coronavirus recovery effort
Coronavirus: Hong Kong will allow public gatherings of up to 50 people
After Weeks Of No New Cases Of COVID-19 In New Zealand, 2 Arrivals Test Positive
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Protests in Philly haven’t meant a spike in COVID-19 cases so far, health officials report
NY Hospitals Can Now Allow Visitors at Their Discretion
Cuomo: U.S. Open Will Be Held Aug. 31 to Sept. 13 in New York City Without Fans
Poll: Fewer than half willing to fly shortly after coronavirus restrictions lifted
Under-20s half as likely to contract coronavirus: study
At least 18 US states report upward trend in coronavirus cases
Ski Town Grads Ride The Chairlift To Collect Their Diplomas
Coronavirus Statistics For 16 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 19,957 | 2,110,000 | 118,436 | 8,000,000 | 16.9% | 26.4% |
| Deaths | 395 | 116,127 | 3,373 | 436,632 | 11.7% | 26.6% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.0% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.5% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.63* | 70.36* | ||||
* as of 14 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2020 Headline Manufacturing New Orders Continue In Coronavirus Decline
May 2020 Headline Industrial Production Modestly Improves But Remains Deep In Contraction
Retail Sales Significantly Improves in May 2020
COVID-19 Is Spreading In The US
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches safely – but outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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