Written by Steven Hansen
Global Coronavirus new cases and deaths’ increased this past week relative to the previous week, and there was a marginal increase this week for new U.S. cases. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Why coronavirus hits men harder: sex hormones offer clues
- COVID-19 Outbreak In Pacific Northwest Seafood Industry As Season Ramps Up
- Hospitals could struggle – and more will go bankrupt – until they get patients back in the door
- Standardized reporting from Health Departments to CDC now required
The good news is that U.S. deaths this week declined from the previous week. It would seem that four forces are driving the increase in new coronavirus cases this week:
- the Memorial Day weekend brought people together
- the easing of the lockdown across the U.S.
- the protests bringing people in closer proximity
- as farmworkers work and live in close proximity, coronavirus cases have been raging
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Hospitals could struggle — and more will go bankrupt — until they get patients back in the door – CNBC
- Many hospitals operated with thin margins before the Covid-19 crisis.
- April was one of the worst months ever for hospital operating margins, according to strategic consultant Nathan Kaufman.
- Telemedicine is helping stem some of the losses, but hospital execs say it’s not enough.
Why coronavirus hits men harder: sex hormones offer clues – Knowable Magazine
In January, one of the first publications on those sickened by the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, reported that three out of every four hospitalized patients were male. Data from around the world have since confirmed that men face a greater risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19 than women and that children are largely spared. Now, scientists investigating how the virus does its deadly work have zeroed in on a possible reason: Androgens—male hormones such as testosterone—appear to boost the virus’ ability to get inside cells.
A constellation of emerging data supports this idea, including COVID-19 outcomes in men with prostate cancer and lab studies of how androgens regulate key genes. And preliminary observations from Spain suggest that a disproportionate number of men with male pattern baldness—which is linked to a powerful androgen—end up in hospitals with COVID-19. Researchers are rushing to test already approved drugs that block androgens’ effects, deploying them early in infection in hopes of slowing the virus and buying time for the immune system to beat it back.
… [a reseach paper] sent a lightning bolt through the prostate research community, because it showed that infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, relies in part on TMPRSS2, a membrane-bound enzyme. The enzyme cleaves the “spike” protein on the coronavirus’ surface, allowing the virus to fuse with the host cell’s membrane and get inside the cell.
Correlation Between N95 Extended Use and Reuse and Fit Failure in an Emergency Department – JAMA
This study found duckbill N95s had a high failure rate. Failure of dome-shaped masks was associated with increased use. N95 failure may contribute to SARS-CoV-2 transmission despite PPE use and deserves further study. Based on these preliminary data, health systems should closely evaluate N95 fit during extended use or reuse and limit duckbill mask use if alternatives are available.
Limitations include the study’s cross-sectional design; a cohort study is needed to determine directionality. The duration of wear and number of donnings/doffings were self-reported and may not be precise or accurate estimates. Precise time of failure was not measured. Prior studies have shown an inherent N95 fit failure rate,6 which may have affected outcomes. This observational study was subject to confounding (eg, mask quality, unobserved characteristics of wearer). Shifts worn, hours worn, and donnings/doffings are likely correlated: because of the low number of failures, multivariable adjustment was not performed. This study was designed to detect mask failure based on qualitative fit testing. Failed fit tests may not necessarily result in increased rates of infection.
AstraZeneca approaches Gilead for what would be biggest-ever health care merger – Fortune
AstraZeneca Plc has made a preliminary approach to rival drugmaker Gilead Sciences Inc. about a potential merger, according to people familiar with the matter, in what would be the biggest health-care deal on record.
The U.K.-based firm informally contacted Gilead last month to gauge its interest in a possible tie-up, the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private. AstraZeneca didn’t specify terms for any transaction, they said. While Gilead has discussed the idea with advisers, no decisions have been made on how to proceed and the companies aren’t in formal talks, the people added.
AstraZeneca, valued at $140 billion, is the U.K.’s biggest drugmaker by market capitalization and has developed treatments for conditions from cancer to cardiovascular disease. Gilead, worth $96 billion at Friday’s close, is the creator of a drug that’s received U.S. approval for use with coronavirus patients.
British Airways threatens legal action over UK quarantine plans – Financial Times
The chief executive of British Airways’ owner IAG said he was considering legal action over the UK government’s quarantine travel rules, which he claimed had “torpedoed” plans to restart passenger flights next month.
Willie Walsh said IAG was consulting with lawyers about possible action into what he called “terrible” measures requiring international passengers to self-isolate for 14 days after arriving in the UK by air.
… Mr Walsh’s threat follows weeks of tension between the government and BA over coronavirus-related travel restrictions and the carrier’s decision to cut up to 12,000 jobs.
Standardized reporting from Health Departments to CDC now required – CDC
New guidance issued Thursday will standardize reporting of testing data in terms of factors like race, gender and zip code to give the CDC a better picture of the virus’s impact on communities of color.
Global coronavirus cases near 7 million as outbreak grows in Brazil, India – Reuters
Global cases of the novel coronavirus neared 7 million on Saturday, as case numbers surge in Brazil and India, according to a Reuters tally.
About 30% of those cases, or 2 million infections, are in the United States, though the fastest growing outbreak is in Latin America, which now accounts for roughly 16% of all cases.
COVID-19 Outbreak In Pacific Northwest Seafood Industry As Season Ramps Up – NPR
As America’s meat producers confronted thousands of COVID-19 cases, Pacific Northwest seafood companies drafted rigorous plans to ward off similar spread of the disease in an industry where processors also work in close quarters.
But just a few weeks into the summer season, the industry has been shaken by its first major outbreak aboard a huge vessel with an onboard fish processing factory. This week, Seattle-based American Seafoods confirmed that 92 crew from its American Dynasty ship had tested positive for COVID-19, nearly three-fourths of the 126 people onboard.
“It was like, ‘Wow, I can’t believe this.’ We had done so much. Each company had worked so hard to try to avoid this happening,” says Brent Paine, executive director of United Catcher Boats.
Executives in China most positive about their country’s economy over next six months – McKinsey
Our latest survey of executives shows that a majority in most regions—except China—are still more negative than positive in their expectations for their home economies, but their sentiment is improving.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
London University forms startups to boost vaccine development
Coronavirus: Malaysia to ease curbs from June 10 to allow domestic travel, social activities
Delhi to re-open borders as India relaxes nationwide lockdown
Coronavirus: Hard-hit Brazil removes data amid rising death toll
India, Pakistan Record Big Jump In Coronavirus Cases
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Farmers Find Ways To Save Millions Of Pigs From Being Euthanized
Coronavirus Statistics For 07 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 22,223 | 1,920,000 | 129,389 | 6,840,000 | 17.2% | 28.1% |
| Deaths | 659 | 109,802 | 3,922 | 398,636 | 16.8% | 27.5% |
| Mortality Rate | 3.0% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 5.8% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.3* | 59.85* | ||||
* as of 04 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
What Is Business Interruption Insurance And How Is It Related To The Covid-19 Pandemic?
Which Workers Bear The Burden Of Social Distancing Policies?
How Fast Are COVID-19 Death Rates Declining? U.S. Vs. Other Countries
Zoom’s Revenue Skyrockets On Pandemic Boost
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 06June 2020
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 06June 2020
COVID-19: A Data-Driven Analysis
As States Reopen, Tensions Flare Between The Rule Followers And Rule Breakers
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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