The Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.3 points to 47.1 in September, following August’s rebound to 50.4.
Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI
The Fed manufacturing surveys were little changed this month showing little growth – and the Chicago Fed is consistent with the other surveys.
Expectations this month from Econoday were 47.2 to 52.0 (consensus 50.4). A number below 50 indicates contraction.
Business confidence dropped below the 50-mark to 47.3 in Q3, leaving the index at the lowest level on a quarterly basis since Q3 2009. The index fell 4.9 points compared to the previous quarter. Supplier Deliveries and Employment are the only Business Activity components higher on the month, increasing to 54.8 and 45.6, respectively. Production saw the largest decline, falling by 15.8% or 7.6 points, to 40.4, the lowest since May 2009. Demand slowed in September, indicated by a sharp fall in New Orders, which shifted back into contraction by ticking down 7.6 points to 48.5.
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The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) – there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.
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source and read the full report: Chicago PMI
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