Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward worsened and remains in contraction.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
The current forecast is a slight economic contraction six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 144.7 as WLI growth decreased to -4.4%, a 199-week low.
Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate.
The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to information that we have made public:
– read ECRI’s latest op-ed “A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Market“
– watch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on “Global Slowdown, Trade War and the Fed’s Belated Blink” on CNBC
– read ECRI’s “Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck”
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:
Click here to review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.
For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows the rate of economic growth marginally declined.
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures subsided in November.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.
z ecri_infl.PNG
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy’s rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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