The Chicago Business Barometer moderated after last month’s surge.
Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI
The Fed manufacturing surveys have been trending down – and the but ISM manufacturing and Chicago ISM trends are stronger.
Expections this month from Econoday were 57.9 to 65.9 (consensus 62.4) with the actual at 65.4. A number below 50 indicates contraction.
Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,
Encouragingly, inflationary pressures subsided for a fifth consecutive month and should this continue, it will ease the burden on firms’ productive capacities. Still, concerns over tariffs continue to linger in the background and stir uncertainty.
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer eased to 65.4 in December, down 1.0 point from November’s 66.4. Three out of the five Barometer sub-components lost ground on the month, but solid gains in Production and Order Backlogs helped the headline index maintain most of November’s eightpoint rise. Recording just the fourth year-over-year fall this year, the Barometer continues to signal a healthy business environment, notching the 34th consecutive reading above 50. Over Q4 as a whole, the headline index averaged 63.4, the best calendar quarter outturn this year Contributing to December’s moderation was a fall in demand, easing somewhat after surging last month. However, November’s order book strength did translate into higher output this month with Production rising to an 11-month high. As last month, firms reported customer pressure for earlier delivery on existing orders.
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The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) – there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.
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source and read the full report: Chicago PMI
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