23 June 2017: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Continues to Slow

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Also ECRI released their lagging index.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Indexes Eases

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 143.1 from 143.7 in the week ending July 23, as its growth rate slipped from 3.4% to 3.0%

To put the economy in perspective please see link below:

– ECRI’s presentation ‘Turning Points: The Long and Short of It‘ at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The April index value (issued in May) shows the rate of economic growth improved.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The May economy’s rate of growth (released in June) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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