ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 37th week – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Also ECRI released their inflation outlook this past week.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. This week, both indices improved. Still, they are indicating conditions 6 months from today might not be much better than today.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
U.S. WLI Increases
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increases to 143.2 from 142.1, the highest since July 13, 2007. The growth rate rises to 9.7% from 8.3%,
highest since May 7, 2010.
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
– watch Lakshman Achuthan’s interview on NBR.
– read ECRI’s “A Tale of Two Job Markets“.
– Read ECRI’s “All of a Sudden, Inflation Fears Intensify“.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator
RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The October index value (issued in November) shows a small improvement in the rate of economic growth.
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises in November
U.S. inflationary pressures were up in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 113.8 from a downwardly revised 113.4 reading in October, first reported as 113.7, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The Septembers economy’s rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth significantly declined.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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