from Sentier Research
According to new data derived from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), median annual household income in September 2015 was $56,279, not significantly different than the August 2015 median of $56,324. The Sentier Household Income Index for September 2015 was 98.3 (January 2000 = 100).
Even though the change in this latest monthly reading is not statistically significant, there is a generally upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in our household income series that occurred in August 2011. Median income in September 2015 ($56,279) was 4.3 percent higher than in September 2014 ($53,968), and 8.7 percent higher than in August 2011 ($51,756). The period since August 2011 has been marked by an uneven, but generally upward trend in the level of real median annual household income. Many of the month-to-month changes in median income during this period have not been statistically significant. However, the cumulative effect of the various month-to-month changes since August 2011 resulted in the income improvement noted above. (See Figure 1 – full report here)
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According to Gordon Green of Sentier Research:
Even though median annual household income did not increase in September 2015, we continue to see an upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in August 2011. We have now recaptured all of the income losses that have occurred since June 2009, when the great recession ended, and we are closing in on the income level that existed when the great recession began in December 2007. The September 2015 median is only 0.5 percent lower than the median of $56,584 in December 2007.
Highlights
The September reading on the labor market from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed some improvement compared to August:
- The official unemployment rate in September 2015 was 5.1 percent, the same rate as August.
- The median duration of unemployment was 11.4 weeks in September 2015 compared to 12.1 weeks in August 2015.
- The broader measure of employment hardship, which includes the unemployed, marginally attached workers (of which discouraged workers are a subset), and persons working part-time for economic reasons, was 10.0 percent in September 2015, down from 10.3 percent in August 2015.
Real median annual household income in September 2015 can be put into broader perspective by comparisons with previous levels of household income since the last recession began and dating back to the start of the last decade:
- The September 2015 median income of $56,279 is 1.3 percent higher than the median of $55,549 in June 2009, the end of the recent recession and beginning of the “economic recovery. As noted in our report last month, we have recovered all of the income that was lost during the postrecessionary period.”
- The September 2015 median is only 0.5 percent lower than the median of $56,584 in December 2007, the beginning month of the recession that occurred more than seven years ago.
- And the September 2015 median is now only 1.7 percent lower than the median of $57,257 in January 2000, the beginning of this statistical series.
The Sentier Household Income Index (HII) shows the value of real median annual household income in any given month as a percent of the base value at the beginning of the last decade (January 2000 = 100.0 percent):
- The Sentier HII for September 2015 stood at 98.3 compared to 98.8 in December 2007, when the “great recession” began, and 97.0 in June 2009, when the “economic recovery” subsequently began.
- The Sentier HII in August 2011 was 90.4 compared to 98.3 in September 2015.
Notes:
Income amounts in this report are before-tax money income and have been adjusted for inflation; income amounts have been seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise noted.
Estimates of median annual household income and the Household Income Index (HII) provide the only measures of change in household income during 2013 and 2014. The U.S. Census Bureau issued its official estimates of income and poverty for calendar year 2012 in a report released on September 17, 2013.
The estimates in this report are based on the Current Population Survey (CPS), the monthly household survey that provides official estimates of the unemployment rate. The CPS samples approximately 50,000 households and 135,000 household members each month. As is the case with all surveys, the estimates are subject to sampling and nonsampling errors. All comparisons made in the report have been tested and found to be statistically significant at the 90-percent confidence level, unless otherwise noted.
Household income is defined as the sum of the incomes of all household members. Income refers to all sources of money income including earnings from work, Social Security, interest, dividends, cash welfare, retirement pensions, unemployment compensation, veterans’ benefits, etc. Income excludes capital gains and losses, and lump-sum, one-time amounts. Household income is measured before the payment of federal and state income taxes and Social Security payroll taxes.
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