Week 40 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) and monthly total rail traffic (from same month one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic moderately expanded year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements. but weekly railcar counts continued in contraction.
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago | Current quantities accelerating or decelerating | Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago | |
| 4 week rolling average | -2.3 % | accelerating | decelerating |
| 13 week rolling average | -1.5 % | accelerating | decelerating |
| 52 week rolling average | +0.6 % | decelerating | decelerating |
A summary of the data from the AAR:
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Oct. 10, 2015.
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 556,233 carloads and intermodal units, down 2.8 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending Oct. 10 were 281,073 carloads, down 5.8 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 275,160 containers and trailers, up 0.5 percent compared to 2014.
Five of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2014. They include: miscellaneous carloads, up 24.4 percent to 10,256; grain, up 21.3 percent to 24,818 carloads; and motor vehicles and parts, up 2 percent to 17,846. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2014 included: metallic ores and metals, down 23.5 percent to 20,084 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 16.6 percent to 13,621 carloads; and coal, down 12.6 percent to 98,637 carloads.
For the first 40 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 11,161,759 carloads, down 4.4 percent from the same point last year; and 10,692,427 intermodal units, up 2.4 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 40 weeks of 2015 was 21,854,186 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.2 percent compared to last year.
Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week is 11.4 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014. The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | -5.8 % | +0.5 % | -2.8 % |
| Ignoring coal and grain | -5.4 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -4.4 % | +2.4 % | -1.2 % |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart:
z rail1.png
From EIA.gov:
For the week ended October 10, 2015:
- Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst)
- This production estimate is 3.5% lower than last week’s estimate and 11.4% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014
- East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 6.7 mmst
- West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 10.4 mmst
- U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 708.4 mmst, 8.5% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2014
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