24 July 2015: ECRI’s WLI Continues In Positive Territory Again Insignificantly Declining

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which had spent 28 weeks in negative territory – is now in its 13th week in positive territory but continues to creep back towards contraction..

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 133.0 from 133.4. The growth rate slips to 0.2% from 0.3%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The June update (reported in July) shows the rate of economic growth is slowing.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Inflation Gauge Slips

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 100.5 from an unrevised May 101.3 reading, according to data released Thursday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“While holding above March’s 16-month low, the USFIG remains well below its earlier highs, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures are still muted,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The June’s economy’s rate of growth (released in July) returned to 2015 trend line after last month’s decline.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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