by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com
The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for July came in at 93.1, a decrease from the 96.1 June final reading. Investing.com had forecast 94.0 for the July Final. The Index is at its highest eight month average since 2004.
Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin makes the following comments:
Consumer confidence slipped a bit in the July 2015 survey. A disappointing pace of economic growth was the main reason for the small decline in consumer confidence. Nonetheless, the data provide no indication of a break in the prevailing positive trend. Indeed, the Sentiment Index has averaged 94.5 since December 2014, the highest eight month average since 2004. Although one-in-ten consumers, when asked to identify any recent economic developments they had heard, referred negatively to Greece, the Chinese economy, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership on trade, it had virtually no impact on the Sentiment Index. The maintenance of confidence at high levels during the past eight months has been mainly due to modestly positive news on jobs and wages.
See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.
To put today’s report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is now 9 percent above the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 11 percent above the geometric mean. The current index level is at the 71st percentile of the 451 monthly data points in this series.
The Michigan average since its inception is 85.3. During non-recessionary years the average is 87.5. The average during the five recessions is 69.3. So the latest sentiment number puts us 23.8 points above the average recession mindset and 5.6 points above the non-recession average.
Note that this indicator is somewhat volatile, with a 3.1 point absolute average monthly change. The latest data point was a 2.8 point change from the previous month. For a visual sense of the volatility, here is a chart with the monthly data and a three-month moving average.
For the sake of comparison here is a chart of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (monthly update here). The Conference Board Index is the more volatile of the two, but the broad pattern and general trends have been remarkably similar to the Michigan Index.
And finally, the prevailing mood of the Michigan survey is also similar to the mood of small business owners, as captured by the NFIB Business Optimism Index (monthly update here).
The general trend in the Michigan Sentiment Index since the Financial Crisis lows had been one of slow improvement. But the latest survey findings were a welcome bounce after last month’s interim low.
Caveats on the Use of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
This survey is quantitatively derived from a fairly complex questionnaire (sample here) via a monthly telephone survey. According to Bloomberg:
This release is frequently released early. It can come out as early as 9:55am EST. The official release time is 10:00. Base year 1966=100. A survey of consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by the University of Michigan. For the preliminary release approximately three hundred consumers are surveyed while five hundred are interviewed for the final figure. The level of consumer sentiment is related to the strength of consumer spending. Please note that this report is released twice per month. The first is a preliminary figure while the second is the final (revised) figure.
This is a survey, a quantification of opinion rather than facts and data. The question – does sentiment lead or truly correlate to any economic activity? Since 1990, there seems to be a loose general correlation to real household income growth.
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