Written by Gary
US stocks close higher to kick off March as economic outlook brightens (SPY +2.4%). Iran rejects EU offer to resume nuclear talks with US.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
Oil Workers Move To Renewable Jobs, But The Pay Is LowerAs thousands of oil and gas jobs disappeared during the oil price and demand crash last year, more and more former oil workers moved to jobs in the clean energy business, but they have also taken a pay cut moving to renewables as the industry still pays lower than oil and gas. During the worst of the 2020 crisis, more than 100,000 jobs were lost in the oil, gas, and chemicals industries in the United States alone. Some of those jobs may never return, Deloitte said in a report in October last year. On the other hand, there is a growing demand for | |
OPEC+ Decision To Raise Output Could Keep U.S. Gasoline Under $3Rallying oil prices in recent weeks have intensified speculation that this week the OPEC+ group will decide to put more oil on the market as of April to prevent an over-tightening of the market and preserve market share. As tempting as high oil prices could be from a budget perspective for the biggest oil-exporting nations in the Middle East and Russia, oil at $70as many banks now believe prices would reach as early as next quarterwould be a drag on the tentative demand recovery, with large importers such as India signaling they are | |
Abu Dhabi Formalizes Crown Princes Grip Over Oil Firm ADNOCThe de facto ruler of Abu Dhabi, the richest oil emirate in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), became the chairman of the newly-formed board of directors at state oil firm Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), formalizing a role that analysts say he has been exerting in recent years. Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed, who is the de facto ruler of Abu Dhabi since the emir of Abu Dhabi, Khalifa bin Zayed, suffered a stroke in 2014, will chair the newly-formed board of directors of ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi media office said on Twitter on Sunday. Khalifa | |
Energy Transition Could Cut Oil Prices By $10 Per BarrelThe back-to-back downturns that exploration and production companies (E&Ps) have faced during the past decade have accelerated the energy transition, adding to growing social and regulatory demands for greener energy solutions. This is putting the resilience of global upstream portfolios under pressure. Energy transition experts on Rystad Energys upstream team have now quantified the long-term risk of this change to oil prices and to the net present value (NPV) of global oil and gas portfolios. In an analysis marathon that has generated | |
New Battery Tech Could Make Solar Energy Storage Even CheaperUS-based engineers have joined forces to develop high-voltage reference batteries for behind-the-meter energy storage applications, based on a bipolar technology that uses silicon wafers in traditional lead batteries. The wafers are similar to those in photovoltaic cells and the idea is that the development becomes a plug and play solar-powered energy storage system. The bipolar technology is known as Silicon Joule and has been developed by Gridtential Energy with the goal of reducing lead batteries weight and achieving | |
Aramco Seeking To Extend Loan $10 Billion LoanSaudi Aramco is reportedly seeking to extend a $10-billion loan, according to Reuters, which cited unnamed sources familiar with the matter, who confirmed an initial report by a Reuters-related news outlet. Aramco took the loan from a group of banks last year in May to finance its acquisition of Sabic, the Saudi petrochemicals major, which cost the energy company some $69 billion and wrapped up in June 2020. The loan was supposed to be repaid from the proceeds of a bond that Aramco issued later last year. However, the company did not repay the | |
The Oscars should heed these 5 lessons from the Golden Globes and EmmysThis year’s Golden Globes telecast provides the upcoming Academy Awards show with a blueprint of do’s and don’ts. | |
Florida Gov. DeSantis accused of favoritism in distributing Covid vaccine, Congress urged to investigateFlorida Democrat Nikki Fried accused DeSantis of “inept distribution of vaccines at best, and corrupt political patronage at worst.” | |
Delta hands out bonuses to managers whose pay was cut in the pandemicDelta managers are getting bonuses, some of them in the six figures, after getting pay cuts last year at the start of the Covid pandemic. | |
FTC asks five e-cigarette firms, including Juul, to turn over more sales and advertising dataThe FTC is issuing orders to five tobacco companies including Juul and R.J. Reynolds for information on its 2019-2020 sales, advertising and promotional data. | |
Fauci says Biden administration is taking new Covid variant in New York ‘very seriously’Fauci said the New York strain likely originated in Washington Heights, a neighborhood in the uppermost area of Manhattan, before spreading to other boroughs. | |
CDC director ‘really worried’ about states rolling back Covid safety measures as U.S. cases appear to plateauThe CDC director said she is “really worried” about states rolling back Covid-19 restrictions as cases appear to be leveling off at a “very high number.” | |
McDonald’s considers partial sale of drive-thru tech start-up Dynamic YieldThe company plans to sell Dynamic Yield’s third-party business, which is outside what it provides to McDonald’s restaurants. | |
Dr. Scott Gottlieb sees promising signs that Covid vaccines reduce virus transmissionPfizer board member Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC there is growing evidence showing Covid vaccines cut down on person-to-person spread of the virus. | |
United Airlines buys 25 additional Boeing 737 Max jets in vote of confidence in the planesUnited is buying 25 additional Boeing 737 Max planes. | |
J&J CEO says single-shot Covid vaccine will keep people out of the hospital, prevent deathsCEO Alex Gorsky told CNBC that J&J’s newly approved vaccine will be an important tool in the fight against the pandemic. | |
Major offshore wind farm using 187-meter high turbines starts to produce powerThe U.K. is a world leader in the offshore wind sector. | |
Gatorade made a smart patch that measures your sweat and hydrationGatorade is getting into the wearable fitness craze. The drink maker is launching the Sweat Patch to help athletes measure their fitness and hydration. | |
Rocket Lab CEO says SPAC deal is ‘a supercharger’ for growth and adds ability to launch astronautsRocket Lab is going public in the next few months and CEO Peter Beck spoke to CNBC to break down the space company’s opportunities from the new cash pile. | |
Stocks, Crypto, & Bond Yields Surge Amid Commodity PurgeStocks, Crypto, & Bond Yields Surge Amid Commodity Purge An odd day. While China PMIs were ugly, US PMIs signaled record-breaking inflation is on its way to the end-user (and supply chain disruptions means it won’t ease anytime soon)… Source: Bloomberg And that came after the House passed Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus. Bond yields rose at the long-end (makes sense – inflation/growth etc), but compressed in the belly (will The Fed say something? The ECB did today)… | |
BofA: 1.75% Is The “Tipping Point” For BondsBofA: 1.75% Is The “Tipping Point” For Bonds Almost two months ago, Nomura correctly predicted that once the 10Y breaches 1.50%, stocks would freak out and sure enough that’s precisely what happened (with Nomura’s forecast becoming self-fulfilling and sparking a stop loss cascade one the 10Y hit 1.50% last Thursday, sending the 10Y as high as 1.61% in a matter of seconds following last week’s dismal 7Y auction). So now that 1.50% is yesterday’s news, Wall Street is scrambling to define the next critical level for 10Ys beyond which there will be blood. As a reminder, yesterday Goldman hinted that 2.10% is what traders should be looking at, but that seems a lot, especially with many far more accurate forecasters saying that the Fed will have to engage YCC around 2.0%, and for that to happen stocks would need to crash first. Therefore, the next critical level is likely one between 1.50% and 2.0%. One such level was proposed by BofA’s chief equity strategist, Savita Subramanian who today writes that “history suggests that 1.75% on the 10-yr (the house forecast and ~25bp above current levels) is the tipping point at which asset allocators begin to shift back to bonds” and thus sell stocks in the next wave of aggressive liquidations. Why 1.75%? Because that yield on the 10Y is decisively above the S&P’s dividend yield, and where according to BofA œthere is an alternative to stocks”, or TIAA. | |
“U.S. Excess Savings Will Be A Massive Economic Boost From 2Q”“U.S. Excess Savings Will Be A Massive Economic Boost From 2Q” Submitted by Christophe Barraud U.S. personal incomes soared in January as Americans received another batch of pandemic-relief checks, resulting in a spike of total excess personal savings. According to the Commerce Department report, incomes increased by 10% MoM, the largest gain in nine months. The January jump came after the $900 billion pandemic aid package passed in December. As a reminder, the bill included $600 stimulus checks per American, including adults and children. However, the size of the payment decreased for people who earned more than $75,000 in the 2019 tax year. The check disappeared altogether for those who earned more than $99,000. In addition, the legislation supplemented jobless benefits with an extra $300 a week payment. Meanwhile, purchases increased 2.4% MoM, pushing personal saving rate up to 20.5%, the highest since May 2020. In this context, U.S. personal savings as a share of nominal GDP will rise again in 1Q21, after reaching a post-war high at the end of 2020 on a 4-quarter moving average basis. | |
Bond Market Calls Fed’s Bluff With Biggest Short Ever…Bond Market Calls Fed’s Bluff With Biggest Short Ever… The last few weeks have seen the short-end of the yield curve panic, pricing in more than 4 rate-hikes from Dec 2022 to Dec 2024… Source: Bloomberg And Bond yields have screamed higher in recent days as fears of rampant inflation and a Fed on the sidelines prompts selling… Source: Bloomberg And as bond yields rose so growthy big-tech was monkey-hammered lower… | |
Heathrow Airport seven-hour queues ‘inhumane’, say passengersTravellers complain of having to queue for up to seven hours because of new Covid measures at border control. | |
Vauxhall: Business Secretary ‘hopeful’ over car plant futureThe owner of the Ellesmere Port factory, which employs about 1,000 workers, is in talks with the government. | |
Joe Biden takes swipe at Amazon over union fightAs Amazon workers vote on joining a union, the US president says “there should be no intimidation” from employers. | |
MTAR Tech IPO opens on Wednesday. What you should know before subscribingIn the first nine months of FY21, revenue grew by 16% to Rs 177 crore and profit increased by 25% to Rs 28 crore. The outstanding order book was Rs 336 core at the end of December 2020, which is 1.6 times the FY20 revenues. | |
RBI remains net buyer of US dollar in December, buys $10.014 bnDuring the reporting month, the central bank bought $10.014 billion and sold $6.023 billion in the spot market, the RBI said in its monthly bulletin for February 2021. | |
Buy IIFL Finance NCD to earn double digit returnsIIFL Finance, which is rated AA by Crisil, is offering NCDs worth Rs 1,000 crore including a base issue size of Rs 100 crore and a green-shoe option to retain oversubscription of up to Rs 900 crore. | |
February 2021 ISM and Markit Manufacturing Surveys MixedWritten by Steven Hansen The ISM Manufacturing survey improved and remains in expansion. The Markit PMI manufacturing index marginally declined but remains in expansion. The index value of ISM and Markit are similar. | |
Economic Report: Manufacturers grow at fastest pace since pandemic, ISM finds, as economy speeds upAmerican manufacturers grew in February at the fastest pace since the onset of the pandemic and business leaders are increasingly optimistic about the economy, a new survey showed. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index climbed to a three-year high of 60.8% last month. | |
: U.S. consumers made a record number of complaints in 2020 ” this was their No. 1 grievance‘As consumers dealt with the economic fallout of the pandemic, they increasingly faced problems with financial companies.’ | |
: Iran rejects EU offer to resume nuclear talks with U.S.An Iranian government official said on Sunday that Tehran wouldn’t accept to resume talks to salvage a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers that former U.S. president Donald Trump denounced. |
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