Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
The news posted last week for the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some important articles are summarized here. The articles are more or less organized with general virus news and anecdotes first, then stories from around the US, followed by an increased number of items from other countries around the globe. Economic news related to COVID-19 is found here.
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Summary:
Even with the anomalously smaller number of Covid cases reported over the holiday weekend, the past week has seen quite a pronounced surge of new coronavirus infections in the US; new cases reported in the US during the week ending July 10th were 25.3% higher than those reported during the week ending July 3rd, and 40.6% higher than those reported during the week ending June 26th. However, since that increase is off a very low base, this week’s numbers are still 93% lower than during the worst week of January. Since the data reported for July 3rd, 4th and 5th is suspect, we’ll try comparing later in the week figures week over week to see what we get excluding the holiday effect. New cases over the three days ending Friday (July 9th) were 32.7% higher than during the same three days of the prior week (June 30, July 1 & July 2), and 53.9% higher than the 3 day period ending June 25th.
At any rate, US deaths attributed to Covid are still falling. During the week ending July 10th, US deaths from the virus were 7.9% below the death count from the week ending July 3rd, and 26.0% lower than during the week ending June 26th. We can assume there’s likely a “4th of July” effect on those figures as well, but we’ll forego the math on it at this time.
Global cases are also rising more rapidly than previously, but since some countries are already acting to lower their new infections, the overall surge is not quite as pronounced. New cases reported worldwide during the week ending July 10th were 11.2% higher than those reported during the week ending July 3rd, and 14.7% higher that cases reported during the week ending June 26th. But unlike those in the US, global deaths from Covid have turned the corner, and are up fractionally week over week; however, the week’s increase of deaths worldwide is less than 0.1%.
As mentioned, Covid cases in many of those counties with surging infections a month ago are now falling; most notably in South America; cases in Brazil were down 9% over the past week; cases in Colombia were down 15%, and cases in Argentina were down 17% week over week. On the other hand, European countries are again seeing a resurgence; new cases in Spain were up 103% over this past week; new cases in France were up 61%, new cases in the Netherlands were up 386%, new cases in Portugal were up 39%, and new cases in Greece were up 163%. it’s probably not a coincidence that most of those countries are close to England; new cases reported in the UK over the week ending July 10th were 1500% higher than those reported during the week ending May 8th.
The chart below from WorldoMeter shows the daily number of new cases for the US, updated through 10 July.
The chart below shows the daily number of deaths for the US, updated through 10 July.
The number of active cases still remains at an elevated level, still hovering just below 5 million.
The graphics presented by Johns Hopkins have been changed to a new format. Global new cases, global deaths, and global cummulative vaccinations now all appear in a consolidated chart.
According to Johns Hopkins (first graph below), new cases globally, which previously appeared to have peaked and be in a down trend are now showing a new increase. Global deaths (second graph below) still are in a down trend (but slowing from earlier decline), while global vaccinations continue to increase (third graph below).
Steven Hansen continues to summarize and link the latest news related to the pandemic and economic recovery every day, 7 days a week, plus displays over a dozen important graphics updated at least daily. The most recent article at the time this is published: 10 July 2021 Coronavirus And Recovery News: Poor Quality Science Being Disseminated In COVID Preprint and Peer-Reviewed Studies
This article leads the daily newsletter from Global Economic Intersection every day. Newsletter subscription is free.
Here are the rest of the articles for the past week reviewed and summarized:
Study ties milder COVID-19 symptoms to prior run-ins with other coronaviruses — A study by Stanford University School of Medicine investigators hints that people with COVID-19 may experience milder symptoms if certain cells of their immune systems “remember” previous encounters with seasonal coronaviruses — the ones that cause about a quarter of the common colds kids get. These immune cells are better equipped to mobilize quickly against SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for COVID-19, if they’ve already met its gentler cousins, the scientists concluded. The findings may help explain why some people, particularly children, seem much more resilient than others to infection by SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. They also might make it possible to predict which people are likely to develop the most severe symptoms of COVID-19. The immune cells in question, called killer T cells, roam through the blood and lymph, park in tissues and carry out stop-and-frisk operations on resident cells. The study, published online July 1 in Science Immunology, showed that killer T cells taken from the sickest COVID-19 patients exhibit fewer signs of having had previous run-ins with common-cold-causing coronaviruses. “Pathogens evolve quickly and ‘learn’ to hide their critical features from our antibodies,” said Davis, who is also the Burt and Marion Avery Family Professor. But T cells recognize pathogens in a different way, and they’re tough to fool.
Scientists identify natural SARS-CoV-2 super immunity against 23 variants. – A team of international scientists has recently identified ultrapotent anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies from convalescent donors. The antibodies are capable of neutralizing a wide range of SARS-CoV-2 variants even at sub-nanomolar concentrations. In addition, the combinations of these antibodies reduce the risk of generating escape mutants in vitro. The study is published in the journal Science. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative pathogen of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is an enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA virus belonging to the human beta-coronavirus family. The spike glycoprotein on the viral envelop is composed of two subunits S1 and S2. Of which, the S1 subunit directly binds to the host cell angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor through the receptor-binding domain (RBD) to initiate the viral entry process.The majority of therapeutic antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 have been designed based on the native spike protein sequence found in the original Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2. Thus, novel viral variants with multiple spike protein mutations may likely develop resistance against these antibodies. In this context, studies have shown that antibodies developed in response to currently available COVID-19 vaccines have less efficiency in neutralizing novel variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV, including B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P1, and B.1.617.2. In the current study, the scientists have isolated and characterized anti-spike RBD antibodies from COVID-19 recovered patients. The antibodies were isolated from four convalescent donors infected with the Washington-1 (WA-1) strain of SARS-CoV-2. The spike sequence in the WA-1 strain is similar to the spike sequence in the original Wuhan strain. The B cells isolated from donor-derived blood samples were sorted for antibody identification. This led to the identification of four potent neutralizing antibodies targeting the spike RBD. These antibodies showed a high affinity for the SARS-CoV-2 spike even at nanomolar concentrations.All experimental antibodies exhibited significantly higher potency in neutralizing D614G mutation-containing variants than the WA-1 strain. Further analysis with lentiviral particles pseudotyped with spike variants indicated that the antibodies maintain high potency in neutralizing a diverse set of 10 spike variants. Importantly, three out of four experimental antibodies showed high efficacy in neutralizing 13 circulating variants of concern/interest of SARS-CoV-2, including B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.526, P.1, P.2, B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2.
94% of patients with cancer respond well to COVID-19 vaccines – In a U.S. and Swiss study, nearly all patients with cancer developed good immune response to the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines three to four weeks after receiving their second dose, but the fact that a small group of the patients exhibited no response raised questions about how their protection against the virus will be addressed moving forward. Among the 131 patients studied, 94% developed antibodies to the coronavirus. Seven high-risk patients did not. “We could not find any antibodies against the virus in those patients,” said Dimpy P. Shah, MD, PhD, of the Mays Cancer Center, home to UT Health San Antonio MD Anderson. “That has implications for the future. Should we provide a third dose of vaccine after cancer therapy has completed in certain high-risk patients?” “With other vaccines and infections, patients with cancer have been shown not to develop as robust an immune response as the general population,” “It made sense, therefore, to hypothesize that certain high-risk groups of patients do not have antibody response to COVID-19 vaccine.” “Patients with hematological malignancies, such as myeloma and Hodgkin lymphoma, were less likely to respond to vaccination than those with solid tumors,” Among the high-risk groups, patients receiving a therapy called Rituximab within six months of vaccination developed no antibodies. Rituximab is a monoclonal antibody used in the treatment of hematological cancers and autoimmune diseases. Patients on chemotherapy that is toxic to cells developed antibody response, but it was muted compared to the general population. “How that relates to protection against COVID-19, we don’t know yet,” Dr. Dimpy Shah said. The Delta variant and other mutants of the COVID-19 virus were not examined in the study. The team also did not analyze the response of infection-fighting T cells and B cells in the patients with cancer.
16-year-old suffers suspected cardiac arrest after Covid-19 jab; expert committee advises against strenuous activities for a week after each dose – The expert committee on Covid-19 vaccination is now advising people, especially adolescents and younger men, to avoid exercise or strenuous physical activity for one week after getting any mRNA vaccine dose. The move comes as the Ministry of Health (MOH) probes the collapse of a 16-year-old male six days after his first Pfizer-BioNTech jab, just after a strenuous gym workout. He is in critical condition in hospital after suspected cardiac arrest. Previously, on June 11, the committee had stated that adolescents and younger men should avoid strenuous physical activity for a week after their second dose of the mRNA vaccines. The earlier advice did not relate to the first dose. The two mRNA vaccines in use here are the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. This change has come about due to the “small but nevertheless statistically significant risk” of myocarditis and pericarditis, types of heart inflammation, observed after vaccination with both the first and second mRNA vaccines, the expert committee added in a statement on Monday (July 5). Both the committee and MOH, in a separate release, also noted the case of the 16-year-old. The youth received his first dose on June 27. On July 3, he worked out with heavy weights above his own body weight prior to what has been preliminarily diagnosed as a cardiac arrest. The youth is being warded in the intensive care unit at the National University Hospital (NUH), MOH said. In updating its advice, the expert committee cited a Health Sciences Authority (HSA) update on Monday which said that as of June 30, the authority had received 12 reports of myocarditis and pericarditis occurring in individuals following their vaccinations with mRNA vaccines. Of the 12 cases, seven of them involved males aged under 30, which was “higher than expected for this age group based on background incidence rates”.
Report: 13-year-old dies in sleep after getting COVID-19 vaccine; CDC investigating – The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating the death of a 13-year-old boy who died days after getting his second dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine in Michigan,according to reports. The boy, Jacob Clynick, had no known underlying medical conditions, according to his family.“CDC is aware of a 13-year-old boy in Michigan who died after receiving a COVID-19 vaccination,” spokeswoman Jade Fulce said in an email to the Detroit News. “This case is currently under investigation and until the investigation is complete, it is premature to assign a specific cause of death.”Clynick’s aunt, Tammy Burages, told the Detroit Free Press he received his second dose of the Pfizer vaccine June 13 at a Walgreens store. She said he had a stomachache on June 15, and had complained of fatigue and fever, common post-vaccine symptoms. He died on June 15.“He passed away in the middle of the night at home,” Burages said.County health officials told the newspaper that the medical examiner’s office had conducted an autopsy, and Clynick’s death was reported to the CDC. “The investigation as to whether there is a correlation between his death and vaccination is now at the federal level with CDC,” the Saginaw County Health Department said in a statement. “Meanwhile, the health department continues to encourage families to speak with their physicians to weigh their own risks and benefits of vaccination.” The boy’s family said an autopsy showed his heart was enlarged when he died and had fluid around it. “There will be discussions with the CDC and Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Obviously, everyone is concerned with this case. We’re doing everything we can as far as testing and looking at potential problems related to the young man’s death.” In May, the CDC said it was investigating reported cases of heart problems in teenagers and young adults who received the COVID-19 vaccine. According to CDC data, there have been more than 1,200 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis mostly in people 30 and under who received Pfizer’s or Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine.
Early Israeli data signals Delta strain may bypass vaccine, cause mild illness. – Rising coronavirus cases in Israel, where most residents are inoculated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, offer “a preliminary signal” the vaccine may be less effective at preventing mild illness from the Delta variant, a top expert said Monday. But Ran Balicer, chairman of Israel’s national expert panel on COVID-19, stressed that it was “too early to precisely assess vaccine effectiveness against the variant” first identified in India in April that is surging across the globe. That is partly due to the overall low number of cases among fully vaccinated Israelis and because those cases are not evenly distributed across the population, further complicating efforts to reach conclusions about the data. Balicer, also the chief innovation officer at Clalit, Israel’s largest health maintenance organization (HMO), told AFP that the Delta variant’s emergence as the “dominant strain” in the country has led to a “massive shift in the transmission dynamic.” Israel’s vaccine rollout that began in December was one of the world’s fastest, making the country a closely watched case study on whether mass inoculation offers a path out of the pandemic. Vaccinations had brought transmission down to about five local new cases per day, but that figure has risen to around 300 in recent days, with the Delta variant raging. About half of the daily cases are among children. Some of the remaining cases appear among vaccinated adults. “To some extent that could be expected since 85 percent of Israeli adults are vaccinated,” Balicer said. “But the rates in which we see these breakthrough cases make some believe they extend beyond that expected point and suggest some decrease in vaccine effectiveness against mild illness – but not severe illness – is likely.”
Pfizer vaccine less effective against delta variant -A study conducted in Israel found that the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine is somewhat less effective against the more infectious delta variant, though it was still found to be effective at preventing severe illness.As The Wall Street Journal reports, the Pfizer vaccine protected 64 percent of immunized people during an outbreak of the delta variant, a sharp drop when compared to the 94 percent of people it had previously been shown to protect. However, the shot was still 94 percent effective at preventing severe illness, a slight decrease from the 97 percent that were kept from experiencing severe illness previously.The data for the study was collected from June 6 through early July, according to officials from Israel’s Health Ministry. The data and the methodology of the study was not released, according to the Journal.Some health experts expressed skepticism about the Israel study, saying mRNA vaccines like Pfizer have been shown to offer strong protection against COVID-19 infection.”Speaking to colleagues in Israel, real skepticism about 64% number,” Brown University School of Public Health dean Ashish Jha wrote on Twitter. “Best data still suggest mRNA vaccines offer high degree of protection against infection.””And superb protection against severe illness,” Jha added. “Lets await more data but as of now If you’re vaccinated, I wouldn’t worry.”Jha clarified that he was not saying the results of the study were incorrect, but stressed that most data has suggested a high efficacy rate in protecting against the delta variant, pointing to a British study that found it was 90 percent effective.
The world is worried about the Delta virus variant. Studies show vaccines are effective against it. – As the Delta variant sweeps the world, researchers are tracking how well vaccines protect against it – and getting different answers.In Britain, researchers reported in May that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had an effectiveness of 88 percentprotecting against symptomatic disease from Delta. A June study from Scotland concluded that the vaccine was 79 percent effective against the variant. On Saturday, a team of researchers in Canada pegged its effectiveness at 87 percent.And on Monday, Israel’s Ministry of Health announced that the effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 64 percent against all coronavirus infections, down from about 95 percent in May, before the Delta variant began its climb to near-total dominance in Israel. Although the range of these numbers may seem confusing, vaccine experts say it should be expected, because it’s hard for a single study to accurately pinpoint the effectiveness of a vaccine.In clinical trials, it’s (relatively) easy to measure how well vaccines work. Researchers randomly assign thousands of volunteers to get either a vaccine or a placebo. If the vaccinated group has a lower risk of getting sick, scientists can be confident that it’s the vaccine that protected them. But once vaccines hit the real world, it becomes much harder to measure their effectiveness. Scientists can no longer control who receives a vaccine and who does not. If they compare a group of vaccinated people with a group of unvaccinated people, other differences between the groups could influence their risks of getting sick.
Pfizer and BioNTech will test a vaccine against the Delta variant. – Pfizer and BioNTech announced on Thursday that they are developing a version of the coronavirus vaccine that targets Delta, a highly contagious variant that has spread to 98 countries. The companies expect to launch clinical trials of the vaccine in August.The Delta variant, first identified in India, is believed to be about 60 percent more contagious than Alpha, the version of the virus that tore through Britain and much of Europe earlier this year, and perhaps twice as contagious as the original coronavirus. The Delta variant is now driving outbreaks among unvaccinated populations in countries like Malaysia, Portugal, Indonesia and Australia.Delta is also now the dominant variant in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported this week. Until recently, infections in the United States had plateaued at their lowest levels since early in the pandemic. Hospitalizations and deaths related to the virus have continued to decline, but new cases may be rising, although it’s not yet clear to what extent the variant is responsible. A slowing vaccination drive and swift reopenings also are playing roles.In their news release, Pfizer and BioNTech also reported promising results from studies of people who received a third dose of the original vaccine, but the companies did not provide the data. A booster given six months after the second dose of the vaccine increases the potency of antibodies against the original virus and the Beta variant by five to 10-fold, the companies claimed.The vaccine makers expect to submit that data to the Food and Drug Administration in the coming weeks, a step toward gaining authorization for booster shots. Antibody levels in the blood may decline six months after immunization, the companies said, and booster doses may be needed to fend off variants.But antibodies are only part of the body’s immune response, and independent studies have suggested that immunity induced by full vaccination is likely to remain robust for years, even against variants. A study published in Nature on Thursday found that two doses of the vaccine are highly effective against the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants. Delta is in the spotlight now, but it is a harbinger of variants to come, underscoring the need to vaccinate the world as quickly as possible. Already the Gamma variant, first identified in Brazil, hasfound a foothold in Washington State, and a more recent variant,Lambda, is on the march in South America.
FDA, CDC Contradict Pfizer, Claim There’s No Need For “Booster” Vaccines… Yet – Just hours after Pfizer and its partner BioNTech announced their plan to seek federal authorization to market a “booster” jab that they said would provide better protection against COVID variants like Delta, the FDA and CDC issued a joint statement contradicting Pfizer by claiming that there’s no evidence that booster vaccines will be necessary. The two federal entities said the US is “fortunate to have highly effective vaccines that are widely available for those 12 and up” and “Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time.” However that could still change since the “FDA, CDC and NIH are engaged in a science-based, rigorous process to consider whether or when a booster might be necessary.” If it is, then “we are prepared for booster doses if and when the science demonstrates that they are needed.”After the developments of yesterday, when Dr. Fauci insisted the US-developed vaccines are extremely effective despite Israeli scientists saying the Pfizer jab might be only 64% effective against the Delta variant, the fact that these government agencies are breaking with Big Pharma is just the latest sign that – as former NYT reporter Alex Berenson posited – “they can’t even keep the lies straight anymore.”As we established yesterday, Dr. Fauci and his cohort of ‘experts’ are mainly concerned with protecting the vaccines’ reputation. If Americans read that they’re going to need another booster shot in 6-12 months, then it might de-motivate them to get vaccinated today.Additionally, Pfizer and BioNTech said Thursday evening that they would begin developing a version of a COVID-19 vaccine that targets the delta variant, and that they expect to launch clinical trials of that jab next month.
Recipe for even more powerful vaccines against COVID-19 found. – Scientists have found a recipe for even more effective, powerful vaccines against the coronavirus and its rapidly emerging variants based on the way human cells activate the immune system in response to COVID-19 infection.Findings of the new study – published in the journal Cell – suggest current vaccines might lack some important bits of viral material capable of triggering a holistic immune response in the human body. Researchers from Boston University and the Broad Institute of Harvard University noted this study is the first real look at exactly what types of red flags the body uses to enlist the help of T cells sent by the immune system to destroy infected cells. Until now, COVID-19 vaccines have been focused on activating a different type of immune cells, called B cells, which are responsible for creating antibodies.However, the researchers noted that developing vaccines to activate the other arm of the immune system – the T cells – could dramatically increase immunity against coronavirus, and more importantly, its variants.The researchers performed experiments on human cells infected with coronavirus, isolating and identifying those missing pieces of SARS-CoV-2 proteins inside the lab. The team, including computational geneticists Pardis Sabeti and Shira Weingarten-Gabbay, hoped to identify fragments of SARS-CoV-2 that activate the immune system’s T cells.From the start of the COVID pandemic, scientists have known the identity of 29 proteins produced by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in infected cells – the viral fragments that now make up the spike protein in some coronavirus vaccines, such as the Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, and Johnson & Johnson preventives.Spike protein helps the virus to enter and infect the human cells.Later, scientists discovered another 23 proteins hidden inside the virus’s genetic sequence.However, the function of these additional proteins has been a mystery until now.The latest findings reveal that 25% of the viral protein fragments that trigger the human immune system to attack a virus come from these hidden viral proteins. “It is quite remarkable that such a strong immune signature of the virus is coming from regions (of the virus’s genetic sequence) that we were blind to,” said Weingarten-Gabby, the paper’s lead author.”Our discovery can assist in the development of new vaccines that will mimic more accurately the response of our immune system to the virus,” Sabeti said.
The CDC stopped tracking most COVID-19 cases in vaccinated people. That makes it hard to know how dangerous Delta really is – From January to April, just 0.01% of vaccinated Americans – around 10,000 out of 100 million people – got breakthrough infections, or cases of COVID-19 diagnosed after they were fully immunized. That’s according to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which also indicated that certain coronavirus variants were to blame for most of these breakthrough cases. However, the CDC only had genetic sequencing for around 5% of the post-vaccine infections, and the report didn’t include data about the Delta variant. That strain, first detected in the US in March, might pose the greatest challenge to vaccine efficacy. But before more data could be collected to answer these lingering questions, the CDC stopped tracking breakthrough infections that resulted in asymptomatic, mild, or moderate cases. Since May 1, the agency has only reported and investigated coronavirus infections among vaccinated people that resulted in hospitalization or death. Sequencing efforts in the US haven’t ramped up much, either: The country is still only sequencing about 1.4% of its coronavirus cases, according to data from GISAID, a global database that collects coronavirus genomes. That means it’s difficult to tell exactly how much of a risk the Delta variant poses to vaccinated people. Researchers still don’t know whether Delta makes breakthrough cases more common, or what the typical symptoms of a breakthrough infection caused by Delta look like. As a result, vaccinated people may have a hard time weighing the risks of returning to normal social activities or knowing what to expect should they develop a rare breakthrough case. In a recent blog post for Harvard Health Publishing, Robert Shmerling, an associate professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, called the CDC’s decision not to track all breakthrough cases “surprising” and “disappointing.” “By tracking only cases requiring hospitalization or causing death, we may miss the chance to learn how people with ‘milder’ disease are affected by Delta or other variant infections, such as how long their symptoms last and how the infection may disrupt their lives,” Shmerling told Insider. He added that the US could also miss important information about which vaccines are most effective against Delta, how long vaccine protection against the variant lasts, and whether the timing of a second vaccine dose might determine one’s likelihood of a breakthrough case.
The 3 Simple Rules That Underscore the Danger of Delta – Fifteen months after the novel coronavirus shut down much of the world, the pandemic is still raging. Few experts guessed that by this point, the world would have not one vaccine but many, with 3 billion doses already delivered. At the same time, the coronavirus has evolved into super-transmissible variants that spread more easily. The clash between these variables will define the coming months and seasons. Here, then, are three simple principles to understand how they interact. Each has caveats and nuances, but together, they can serve as a guide to our near-term future.
- 1. The vaccines are still beating the variants. The vaccines have always had to contend with variants: The Alpha variant (also known as B.1.1.7) was already spreading around the world when the first COVID-19 vaccination campaigns began. And in real-world tests, they have consistently lived up to their extraordinary promise. The vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna reduce the risk of symptomatic infections by more than 90 percent, as does the still-unauthorized one from Novavax. Better still, the available vaccines slash the odds that infected people will spread the virus onward by at least half and likely more. In the rare cases that the virus breaks through, infections are generally milder, shorter, and lower in viral load. As of June 21, the CDC reported just 3,907 hospitalizations among fully vaccinated people and just 750 deaths.
- 2. The variants are pummeling unvaccinated people. Vaccinated people are safer than ever despite the variants. But unvaccinated people are in more danger than ever because of the variants. Even though they’ll gain some protection from the immunity of others, they also tend to cluster socially and geographically, seeding outbreaks even within highly vaccinated communities.
- 3. The longer Principle No. 2 continues, the less likely No. 1 will hold. Whenever a virus infects a new host, it makes copies of itself, with small genetic differences – mutations – that distinguish the new viruses from their parents. As an epidemic widens, so does the range of mutations, and viruses that carry advantageous ones that allow them to, for example, spread more easily or slip past the immune system to outcompete their standard predecessors. That’s how we got super-transmissible variants like Alpha and Delta. And it’s how we might eventually face variants that can truly infect even vaccinated people.None of the scientists I talked with knows when that might occur, but they agree that the odds shorten as the pandemic lengthens. “We have to assume that’s going to happen,” Gupta told me. “The more infections are permitted, the more probable immune escape becomes.”
Moving the Covid Vaccine Goalposts –Yves Smith – Our Covid brain trust member GM has been on a tear recently with his readings of fresh studies and news reports about vaccine efficacy, particularly against the Delta variant. The bulk of this post will be quotes from his missives, but first some cheery updates. Delta is indeed looking not nice. From NPR’s The Delta Variant Isn’t Just Hyper-Contagious. It Also Grows More Rapidly Inside You (hat tip David L): After months of data collection, scientists agree: The delta variant is the most contagious version of the coronavirus worldwide. It spreads about 225% faster than the original version of the virus, and it’s currently dominating the outbreak in the United States. A new study, published online Wednesday, sheds light on why. It finds that the variant grows more rapidly inside people’s respiratory tracts and to much higher levels, researchers at the Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported.On average, people infected with the delta variant had about 1,000 times more copies of the virus in their respiratory tracts than those infected with the original strain of the coronavirus, the study reported.In addition, after someone catches the delta variant, the person likely becomes infectious sooner. On average, it took about four days for the delta variant to reach detectable levels inside a person, compared with six days for the original coronavirus variant. Bizarrely, and (as usual) irresponsibly, the CDC and the FDA are recommending against booster shots soon, when Pfizer data from heavily vaccinated Israel (and recall those shots were administered in a much tighter time frame than in the US), shows the waning of immunity there translates into the need for more jabs soon. I’ve been saying for some time that the officialdom should be preparing those who have been vaccinated of the need for another round of shots in the fall/early winter, yet they are trash taking the idea.1 From CNN: Drugmaker Pfizer said Thursday it is seeing waning immunity from its coronavirus vaccine and says it is picking up its efforts to develop a booster dose that will protect people from variants.It said it would seek emergency use authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration for a booster dose in August after releasing more data about how well a third dose of vaccine works.But in an unusual move, two top federal agencies said Americans don’t need boosters yet and said it was not up to companies alone to decide when they might be needed.Hours after Pfizer issued its statement, the FDA and Centers for Disease and Control issued a joint statement saying Americans do not need booster shots yet.“Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time,” they said. Pfizer and its partner BioNTech said evidence was building that people’s immunity starts to wane after they have been vaccinated. The Pfizer vaccine requires two doses to provide full immunity. And even though there is reason to be skeptical of Pfizer, news stories confirm that their is a rising number of breakthrough cases in Israel, including ones that contra the CDC look to have been contagious. GM’s remarks: Efficiency is down to 64% in Israel right now… And that’s efficiency against both infection and symptomatic disease, though it is still holding higher against hospitalization. The notable thing here is that Israel vaccinated first, i.e. a lot of people there are already at the 6-month mark. Moderna have been claiming that neutralization activity against the more immune-evasive variants has fallen below the protection level at the 6-8 month point in the clinical trial subjects, so seeing a lot of breakthroughs in Israel and at this time makes sense if they were indeed correct. This is being spun right now as “Vaccines work against hospitalization and death, nothing to worry about” and as “nobody promised absolute protection from infection”, which is an obvious goalpost shift because a lot of the people who have “symptoms” but are not hospitalized are far from OK, and, of course, the CDC current guidelines are very much and quite explicitly based on a presumption of sterilizing immunity. But even that narrative will fall apart eventually, because the next step in the decay progression will be for the vaccinated to also start filling up the ICUs, and it’s not far off in the future. Which is why in Israel they are seriously pondering right now whether to start giving out third doses. But that’s Pfizer, the best of the best, not the supposedly crappy Chinese vaccines. Even I did not expect boosters for the mRNA vaccines so soon… Go long masks and social distancing. They’ll be back soon.
Fears arise that Lambda COVID-19 variant from Peru may be resistant to vaccines – Scientists fear that a highly contagious new COVID-19 variant that is ravaging Peru may be resistant to vaccines. The lambda mutation, or C.37, appears to have emerged in Peru last August – and is being blamed for the country having the highest pandemic death rate in the world.The concerning strain has since spread to around 30 countries, mostly in Latin America – but also as far as the UK, which has recorded at least eight cases, according to government figures.There are no known cases of the lambda strain in the US, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.In Peru, lambda has accounted for 81 percent of new infections tested for variants since April, according to the World Health Organization.The South American nation currently has by far the highest mortality rate in the world,according to Johns Hopkins University data.There, nearly 10 percent of those recorded as being infected end up dying – with the death rate of nearly 600 for every 100,000 citizens almost double that of the next-worst nation, Hungary, the data shows. The US is 21st with just under 185 deaths per 100,000. Lambda was last month declared a variant of interest by the World Health Organization (WHO), which noted that it was “associated with substantive rates of community transmission in multiple countries.” “Lambda carries a number of mutations” that may have led to “potential increased transmissibility or possible increased resistance to neutralizing antibodies,” the WHO said. Scientists in Chile – where lambda is blamed for more than a third of the country’s infections – also warned in a recent study, published in a preprint last week, that it appears to evade vaccines better than other strains. “Our data show for the first time that mutations present in the spike protein of the lambda variant confer escape to neutralizing antibodies and increased infectivity,” wrote the researchers from the University of Chile in Santiago. That could explain why it has been able to take hold despite Chile “undergoing a massive vaccination program,” the study warned. “Considering that this variant has rapidly spread in Peru, Ecuador, Chile and Argentina, we believe that lambda has a considerable potential to become a variant of concern,” they concluded in the preprint paper that has yet to be peer-reviewed.
Why health officials are watching new ‘lambda’ coronavirus variant — A coronavirus variant known as “lambda” is gaining the attention of health officials as it spreads around the world.The variant, also known as C.37, was first detected in Peru in August 2020, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). On June 14, the agency designated C.37 a global “variant of interest,” or VOI, and named it lambda.VOI means the variant is increasingly showing up in communities and has mutations that are predicted to have some effect on viral characteristics, such as increased transmissibility. In contrast, officials use the term “variant of concern,” or VOC, once reliable data shows that the variant has increased transmissibility – such as what’s been seen with the delta variant – or other worrying features.So far, lambda has been detected in 29 countries, with high levels of spread in South American countries. In recent months, the lambda variant was detected in 81% of COVID-19 cases in Peru that underwent genetic sequencing, according to the WHO. And in Chile, the variant was detected in about one-third of cases, the WHO said. Most recently, the variant popped up in the United Kingdom. On June 25, Public Health England reported six cases of the lambda variant, all of which were tied to overseas travel.Officials are monitoring the lambda variant because it carries a number of mutations that could potentially aid its spread. The variant has seven mutations in the virus’s “spike protein” compared with the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 detected in Wuhan, China. Some of these mutations have the potential to increase transmissibility of the virus or to reduce the ability of certain antibodies to neutralize, or inactivate, the virus, according to the WHO. For example, lambda has a mutation known as F490S located in the spike protein’s receptor-binding domain (RBD), where the virus first docks onto human cells. A paper published in the July issue of the journal Genomics identified F490S as a likely “vaccine escape mutation” that could both make the virus more infectious and disrupt the ability of vaccine-generated antibodies to recognize the variant.
125 COVID-19 cases linked to Texas church summer camp – Over 125 people who attended a summer camp run by a church in Texas have tested positive for COVID-19, according to its pastor. Bruce Wesley, the lead pastor of Clear Creek Community Church, said the outbreak stemmed from a camp for students from sixth through 12th grade, which over 400 people attended in June, CNN reports.”Unfortunately, upon return from camp, 125+ campers and adults reported to us that they tested positive for COVID-19. Additionally, hundreds more were exposed to COVID-19 at camp,” Wesley reportedly said in a letter to the church community.”And hundreds of others were likely exposed when infected people returned home from camp,” he added.Wesley also stated that services at all five of Clear Creek Community Church’s campuses south of Houston have been cancelled.”From the beginning of the pandemic, we have sought to love our neighbors by practicing strict safety protocols. We are surprised and saddened by this turn of events. Our hearts break for those infected with the virus,” Wesley said.CNN reports that the Galveston County Health District was notified of the first COVID-19 case on June 27. The camp itself was held outside of the county. “The health district is working closely with church leadership to investigate the outbreak, trace potential contacts and offer guidance and resources,” county health officials said, according to the network. “The youth group did not leave the campground during their stay. They did have contact with counselors from their church. No other campers were on site.”
Virus cases are surging at crowded immigration detention centers in the U.S. – As their populations swell nearly to prepandemic levels, U.S. immigration detention centers are reporting major surges in coronavirus infections among detainees. Public health officials, noting that few detainees are vaccinated against the virus, warn that the increasingly crowded facilities can be fertile ground for outbreaks.The number of migrants being held in the detention centers has nearly doubled in recent months as border apprehensions have risen, according to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. More than 26,000 people were in detention last week, compared with about 14,000 in April.More than 7,500 new coronavirus cases have been reported in the centers over that same period, accounting for more than 40 percent of all cases reported in ICE facilities since the pandemic began, according to a New York Times analysis of ICE data.Prisons and jails in America were hotbeds for the virus last year, with nearly one in three inmates at federal and state facilities testing positive. The virus infected and killed prisoners at a faster rate than it did in nearby populations because of crowding and other factors that made ideal conditions for Covid to spread.As of May, according to ICE’s latest available data, only about 20 percent of detainees passing through the centers had received at least one dose of vaccine while in custody.Dr. Carlos Franco-Paredes, an associate professor at the University of Colorado School of Medicine who has inspected immigration detention centers during the pandemic, said that several factors were to blame for the surge, including transfers of detainees between facilities, insufficient testing and lax Covid-19 safety measures.
Coronavirus infections surging in immigration facilities – Cases of COVID-19 are surging in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities, as detainee populations have soared over the past few months.An analysis by The New York Times found that more than 7,500 cases have been detected since April. That represents more than 40 percent of all coronavirus cases in ICE detention since the start of the pandemic last year.The rise in infections coincides with a surge in immigrant detention, from 14,000 detainees in April to more than 26,000 at the end of June, according to the Times analysis.While President Biden has aggressively scaled back interior immigrant detentions, ICE facilities are being used to house detainees apprehended by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) at borders and points of entry. According to an analysis by TRAC, aSyracuse University project that tracks immigration statistics, 82 percent of the detainees in June were apprehended by CBP, not ICE. While the number of detainees apprehended by CBP plummeted during the heights of the pandemic and rose again as more migrants were apprehended at the border, the number of people detained and held by ICE has slowly tapered off over the past two years and has plateaued at about 4,500 since May. ICE officials say the increase in infections is directly correlated to the increase in CBP detainees in their care, all of whom are subjected to testing, quarantine and cohorting once in the detention centers. Prisons, jails and detention centers have been targets of criticism during the pandemic, as populations that could be easily vaccinated have instead been at increased risk of contracting the virus. “Access to adequate health care in immigration detention centers was a problem before the COVID pandemic, and as the virus still rages in detention centers it’s an extremely urgent issue,” said Rep. Jesús Garc’a (D-Ill.). “People in detention centers are completely dependent on the government for their medical care, and our communities are only safe if we ensure that all people, including immigrants, have access to testing, treatment, and vaccinations,” added Garc’a. Frustration over the lack of detention vaccines is rising given the abundance of doses in the United States, and the fact that nearly 80 percent of all ICE detainees have no prior criminal record, according to TRAC. “We should be vaccinating everyone in custody to help with the pandemic and to help protect lives,” said Rep. Nanette Barragfln (D-Calif.), who chairs the border security subcommittee of the House Homeland Security Committee.
COVID-19 cases up in nearly half of US states: analysis –COVID-19 cases are trending upwards in nearly half of all states in the U.S., according to a new analysis of Johns Hopkins University data by USA Today. Coronavirus infections in Alaska and Arizona more than doubled in the last week, according to USA Today. Cases in South Carolina and Kansas have increased by more than 50 percent. The number of individuals hospitalized with COVID-19 spiked by almost 30 percent over the July 4th weekend in a hard-hit Missouri area, according to USA Today’s analysis.The increase in hospitalizations in the area, which has a low vaccination rate, caused a temporary shortage of ventilators and a plea for help from respiratory therapists, USA Today reported.The state of Missouri has seen the highest number of new cases per capita over the past two weeks in the U.S., according to USA Today. Only 39.4 percent of its residents are fully vaccinated.The Delta variant, which was first identified in India, has been one of the main forces behind the rapid spread of COVID-19 throughout Missouri, the newspaper reported. The new strain has made matters more difficult for hospitals in Springfield, and has sparked fear that the circumstances could worsen following holiday gatherings.Mississippi is also seeing spikes in COVID-19 infections, which increased by nearly 15 percent in June. The state has the lowest vaccination rate in the country, with only 31 percent of its residents fully inoculated. According to officials cited by USA Today, approximately 95 percent of those hospitalized in Mississippi have been unvaccinated.Anthony Fauci, when asked during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday if he would wear a mask in Biloxi, Miss. right now, considering the state’s low vaccination rate, responded “I think there would be good reason to do that.” “Because as we’ve said so often, that vaccines are not, even as good as they are and highly effective, nothing is 100%. And if you put yourself in an environment in which you have a high level of viral dynamics and a very low level of vaccine, you might want to go the extra step and say, When I’m in that area where there’s a considerable degree of viral circulation, I might want to go the extra mile to be cautious enough to make sure that I get the extra added level of protection. Even though the vaccines themselves are highly effective,” Fauci said.
Without Enough Boots on the Ground, California’s Vaccination Efforts Falter – – Gov. Gavin Newsom routinely boasts that California has “one of the highest vaccination rates in the United States of America.”But Newsom, facing a recall election this fall, rarely mentions that the state’s covid vaccine uptake has largely stagnated in Black and Latino neighborhoods hardest hit by the coronavirus, and in rural outposts where opposition to vaccines runs rampant. In these communities, deep distrust of government and the U.S. health care system has collided with the state’s high-stakes effort to finish vaccinating its 34 million vaccine-eligible residents.These are places where state health officials believe they can change a significant number of minds. But the Newsom administration is struggling to do so, public health experts say, hampered by its inconsistent and hastily developed public messaging and outreach campaign that relies too heavily on private advertising firms and companies such as Google and Blue Shield of California.“Many people don’t trust information being put out about vaccines because it’s coming from private companies that have profit-seeking motives,” said Dr. Tony Iton, a senior vice presidentat the California Endowment, which focuses on expanding health care access for Californians. Iton served as Alameda County’s public health officer from 2003 to 2009.What actually works, Iton and other public health experts say, are well-funded, locally designed operations led by organizations that have built trust with residents and are capable of going door to door to dispel vaccine mythology, such as local nonprofits, county health departments and community clinics.But California’s 61 local public health departments have been stunted by years of declining revenue, budget cuts and staff reductions that have stymied their ability to conduct the expensive and time-consuming public health outreach campaigns necessary to combat vaccine skepticism and hesitancy. “When something like covid-19 comes along, local knowledge is absolutely invaluable in reaching every pocket of that community, particularly in building trust in vulnerable populations,” Iton said. “The state doesn’t have that, Google doesn’t have that, and certainly Blue Shield doesn’t have that.”
The fast-spreading Delta virus is now dominant in California and at least 4 other states, experts say – Data indicates the Delta variant of the coronavirus is already dominant in five US states. The variant, which is more transmissible than previous ones, has reached all 50 states. It is widely expected to become dominant in the country over the next couple of weeks.Some states are further along the curve than others. Data suggests it has already taken over in at least five. This includes California, the most populous state.A variant is considered dominant once it causes a greater proportion of infections than any other. It can reach this level before accounting for 50% of cases, though nations where Delta has existed the longest are registering close to 100% dominance. The Delta variant made up 35.6% of sequenced cases submitted to the international GISAID database during the most recent available period, according to the California Department of Public Health. That was higher than the previously dominant variant, Alpha, which made up 34.3% of cases. Prevalence of variants of concern in California among some sequenced samples as of June 21. California Department of Public Health In the week of June 21, the Iowa State Hygienic lab sequenced 47 cases of the virus, 53% of which involved the Delta variant,according to KWWL. Fifty-six percent of sequenced Arkansas cases were due to Delta as of June 24, according to Action 5 news. St. Louis Public Radio cited Dr. George Turabelidze, an epidemiologist at the state Department of Health and Senior Services as saying that of Wednesday the variant made up about half of the cases in Missouri caused by variants.Seventy percent, or 334, of the 447 cases sequenced on the week of June 13 involved the Delta variant, according to Utah Department of Health data. In the graph below, the variants are called by their scientific names. Delta, or B.1.617.2, is orange, while Alpha, or B.1.1.7, is green. The variant is likely to be dominant in more states. Data reported here is from infections recorded a few weeks ago, a lag caused by the length of time taken to collect and analyze the data. An analysis from the Financial Times published Saturday suggests the variant could already be dominant in 21 states.
Coronavirus dashboard for July 6: bad news and *relatively* “good” news about the Delta Wave – The bad news is that the “delta wave” is spreading, and we should expect a real outbreak on the order of last summer’s by early August. The *relatively* “good” news is that the death rate is likely not to be nearly so bad, if the experience in the UK is any guide. First, here’s the bad news, graphically. Of the 25 US States with the highest rate of infections, only 5 do not show an increase: declines in CO, NM, OR, and WA, and steady cases in DE: Of the 25 States + DC with the lowest rate of infections, 5 have started to trend significantly higher: In other words, the uptrend in new cases has spread to 1/2 of all US States so far. The *relatively* “good” news is founded on the experience of the UK with its “delta wave.” The U.K. experience is a bellwether for where the US is going to be in about 4 weeks. There, the outbreak is now the worst except for last winter’s, and has quintupled in that time. BUT, while deaths typically lag cases by 4 weeks, even a quintupling in the rate of deaths in the UK would put it at perhaps only 10% (!!!) of the level during the first wave of spring 2020: Here is the same graph for the US as a whole: If the US follows the same trajectory as the UK, the daily death count might “only” go up to about 600 or 700 cases by Labor Day or so, compared with 1000 or more during most of 2020.
Delta, as expected, is now the dominant virus variant in the U.S., the C.D.C. estimates. — The highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus is now the dominant variant in the United States, accounting for 51.7 percent of infections, according to new estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.As health officials had expected, the Delta variant has rapidly overtaken Alpha, the variant that spread through the United States this spring. Alpha, first detected in Britain, now makes up just 28.7 percent of infections, according to the C.D.C.Still, overall, the average numbers of new virus cases and deaths across the country, as well as hospitalizations, are significantly down from the devastating peaks during previous national surges.Delta was first detected in India. Research suggests that most vaccines still provide good protection against it and remain highly effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths.In England, for instance, where the variant now causes almost all infections, case numbers have risen sharply in recent weeks, but hospitalization rates have increased more slowly and remain low. Next week, a final decision will be made about whether to lift most remaining restrictions in England, including mask rules, on July 19.Studies suggest, however, that a single shot of a two-dose regimen provides only weak protection against Delta, and public health experts have been encouraging Americans to get fully vaccinated as soon as possible.As of Wednesday, 67.2 percent of adults in the United States have had at least one vaccine dose, and 58.4 percent are fully vaccinated.Still, vaccination coverage remains highly uneven, both in the United States and globally, and public health experts say Delta poses a serious threat to unvaccinated populations. On Tuesday,President Biden again urged Americans to get their shots, citing concerns about Delta. “It sounds corny, but it’s a patriotic thing to do,” he said.Health experts say the Biden administration may need to take more aggressive action to encourage vaccination, including urging employers and schools to adopt vaccine mandates. As of Wednesday, administering about 0.73 million doses per day on average, about a 78 percent decrease from the peak of 3.38 million reported on April 13, according to federal data.As for the virus itself, the country has been averaging fewer than15,000 new coronavirus cases a day for nearly a month, the lowest levels since testing became widely available and a fraction of what was reported in January, when the nation routinely identified more than 200,000 cases in a day.
US sees a rise in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations as the Delta variant becomes the dominant strain – No other country has so emphasized vaccine nationalism in its response to the pandemic, at the detriment of the rest of the poorer nations facing their catastrophes with the coronavirus. Nonetheless, as the Delta variant dominates all previous versions across the US, in conjunction with a vaccination campaign that has slowed to a crawl, the US itself is in a precarious position despite Biden’s professed optimism. “Today we’re closer than ever to declaring our independence from a deadly virus … we can live our lives, our kids can go back to school, our economy is roaring back,” President Joe Biden brazenly remarked during the Independence Day celebration on the South Lawn of the White House, which ushered in the complete abandonment of all public health measures to stem the rising tide of COVID-19 infections. [emphasis added] Meanwhile, the seven-day average of vaccinations has tapered off below 733,000 jabs a day. Yesterday, only 437,117 doses of the COVID-19 vaccines were administered. Only 47.6 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated. Across the country, there are trends showing a rise in new cases. According to The New York Times tracker, the two-week change has seen a 35 percent rise to an average of 15,259 daily COVID-19 cases. These dire statistics are compounded by the report released this week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that the highly contagious variant is now dominant in the United States, accounting for 51.7 percent of all cases that were genetically sequenced, up from 30 percent just two weeks ago. Despite these worrisome trends, White House press secretary Jen Psaki remarked that the administration would not impose new national mitigation measures, nor has the CDC changed its guidelines. While Biden and his more than 1,000 guests were rejoicing over the return to normalcy, staff at Mercy hospital in Springfield, Missouri announced on July 4 that they had run out of ventilators for their patients. The chief administrative officer at the hospital, Erik Frederick, tweeted that his employees “spent the night looking for ventilators because we ran out.” Of the 47 patients on the ventilators, “a lot of those” were due to COVID-19 infections. With a second COVID-19 ICU unit opened, there are calls for more respiratory therapists to relieve those working grueling long shifts caring for extremely ill patients.
Delta variant said to be far more widespread than federal estimates –The more-transmissible Delta coronavirus variant is believed to be significantly more widespread than the current federal projections, according to two senior Biden administration health officials with knowledge of the situation.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data released late Tuesday showsthe Delta strain accounted for more than 51 percent of new Covid-19 cases from June 20 to July 3. But the reality on the ground is likely much higher because states and private labs are taking weeks to report testing results to the CDC, the officials said.“It is everywhere now,” one of the officials said, adding that recent data shows the Pfizer Covid vaccine works well against the Delta variant. “The risk really is in the unvaccinated community. We’re starting to see more and more people get sick and need medical attention.”Covid-19 hospitalizations are up more than 40 percent over the last two weeks in Arkansas, Iowa and Nevada. And emerging evidence from a repository of genetic sequences compiled by Scripps Research’s Outbreak.infosuggests that the Delta strain accounted for as much as two-thirds of new Covid cases nationwide over the past two weeks. The site notes the data “may not represent the true prevalence of the mutations in the population.”The CDC’s data on where the variant is spreading and at what rate relies on reports from state and private labs that sequence samples that test positive for Covid-19. But the process often relies on testing batches of samples that can take weeks to complete. That delays the speed with which Delta infections are reported, according to the Biden health officials and multiple state public health officials.The lack of real-time data has left local health officials unprepared as hospitalizations have surged in parts of the Midwest and Southwest. It also raises questions about how the officials can control the spread as the pace ofvaccination slows.
A leading US disease expert says there’s ‘no doubt in my mind’ that vaccinated people are helping spread Delta – The US is celebrating robust COVID-19 vaccine coverage. Strangers are standing shoulder to shoulder in bars, fans are singing along at packed indoor concerts, and travelers are flying in numbers not seen since before lockdowns began in 2020. “While the virus hasn’t been vanquished, we know this: It no longer controls our lives,” President Joe Biden said on Sunday, as hospitalizations, cases, and deaths trended down. “America is coming back together,” he added. But a quiet new wave of severe COVID-19 infections is brewing, fueled by the more transmissible Delta coronavirus variant. “We actually have states where hospitalizations are going up more than cases,” Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Insider, stressing that data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may mask the virus’ true spread. As the CDC’s guidance is not to test vaccinated people unless they’re symptomatic, “we’re probably missing a bunch of transmission in vaccinated individuals,” Murray said. “We have 14 states where transmission has started to go back up,” said Murray, who’s also the lead modeler at the IHME, which the White House has leaned on for disease projections throughout the pandemic. That’s “due to the Delta variant and the fact that everybody’s stopped wearing a mask and just basically stopped most precautions,” he added. Disease modelers at Scripps have estimated that Delta could be responsible for about 60% of COVID-19 cases across the US. COVID-19 vaccines don’t prevent every infection – they are designed to better defend your body against the virus. The vaccines authorized in the US do that very well, even against Delta. Some vaccinated people get a mild, cold-like illness, with a headache and a runny nose. Others could get infected but never know it, becoming silent spreaders. Delta has wreaked far greater havoc among the unvaccinated. Hospitalizations are trending up in several states, including Missouri, Arkansas, Utah, and Mississippi, according to IHME data. Those are some of the same places where vaccination rates are lagging.
Arkansas reports more than 1,000 COVID-19 cases for third straight day Arkansas reported more than 1,000 COVID-19 cases for the third straight day on Friday.The state reported 1,155 new coronavirus cases on Friday, according to data from the Arkansas Department of Health.The number is greater than the 1,000 new infections reported Wednesday but less than the 1,210 new cases reported Thursday.The state has seen a surge in coronavirus infections in recent weeks due in part to the rise of the delta strain of the coronavirus first discovered in India and a lagging vaccination rate.Late last month, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) implored residents to get vaccinated amid the surge.“The overwhelming majority of COVID patients in the hospital have not been vaccinated. These vaccines are effective, but we need more Arkansans to get the shot,” he said at the time.Just under 35 percent of the state’s population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to data from the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention (CDC).According to The Associated Press, Hutchinson has begun a series of town halls aimed at increasing vaccinations.As of Friday, Arkansas has reported 355,460 coronavirus infections since the pandemic began. The state reported four new deaths on Friday, bringing the cumulative death toll to 5,948.The CDC said earlier this week that the delta variant now accounts for the majority of new coronavirus cases across the country.The variant is attributed to a rise in coronavirus infections across several states.Missouri, for instance, is seeing its own surge in cases due in part to the variant. On Friday, the state also recorded more than 1,000 new coronavirus infections for the third day in a row.
Thousands in India given fake coronavirus vaccines at scam drives, officials say – Indian officials said that thousands of people were given fake coronavirus vaccines at scam inoccuation drives, CNN reported on Monday.CNN News affiliate News 18 reported that the scam vaccinations centers took place during late May and early June, with authorities beginning their investigation after some of the scam victims became suspicious of the vaccination certificates they got. A resident told the news source that one of the fake vaccine drives took place at a housing society where they had to pay cash and no one got any symptoms. Mumbai Police Department senior official Vishal Thakur told CNN that 12 fake vaccination sites had been held in the city, saying that the fake doctors were using saline water to inject their victims. Thakur said that an estimated 2,500 people received fake vaccine shots with the organizers making $28,000 in charged fees, according to CNN. This comes as India has battled the second wave of the virus, which infected millions of people and killed tens of thousands of others, for nearly three months. Thakur told CNN that they have arrested 14 people on suspicion ofcheating, attempts at culpable homicide, criminal conspiracy, and other charges in the vaccination scam “We have arrested doctors,” Thakur said. “They were using a hospital which was producing the fake certificates, vials, syringes.”
Fighting junk science in COVID-ravaged India –“Cow dung can save you from getting COVID-19.” “Eating raw onions with sea salt is a surefire COVID cure.” And “5-G telephone signals are helping to spread the deadly coronavirus across India.” These are just a few of the dozens of bizarre theories rampantly spreading on Indian social media. All countries seem to have their fair share of COVID-19 junk science, or “COVID Quack” as some commentators have labeled it. The U.S. is hardly immune to such misinformation, but preposterous theories seem to crop up more frequently and spread faster in India than most places. A London-based investigative journalism nonprofit recently identified more than 150 examples of COVID-19 misinformation posted on Indian Facebook pages in April and May; they had an audience of more than 100 million people. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism found more than 60 examples of COVID-19 misinformation shared on Indian Twitter accounts, too, reaching more than 3.5 million followers. Some of the quackery is almost comical. There was the Indian guru who told his rapt audience: “If you take steam, there is no way you will get COVID.” Other medical amateurs swear that putting drops of mustard oil or lemon juice in the nose can stop the virus. The Modi government has been pushing back against fabrications and fables. Why? There’s nothing funny about providing false hope in a country that has been so devastated by the pandemic – and as the deadly Delta variant has spread around the globe. About 1 in 45 Indian residents have been infected with the virus since the outbreak began, the New York Times reports, and 400,000 Indians have died. Meanwhile, less than 5 percent of the Indian population has been fully vaccinated. This is why the American India Foundation (AIF) is extending a lifeline to India. With funds raised by concerned Americans with deep Indian roots, it has just launched an ambitious program to help get shots into the arms of 1 million of the most vulnerable Indian citizens – people with disabilities, street vendors and migrant workers, sex workers, impoverished women laborers, and tribal groups. These communities frequently suffer from a lack of awareness about the urgent need to get vaccinated, and often buy into the myths and negative attitudes about these lifesaving vaccines. Often without strong digital literacy, these neglected groups typically lack access to the internet, too. But mitigating misinformation is the first step. AIF is launching a $1.5 million awareness and behavioral-change campaign in India, in three native languages, to dispel rumors and provide accurate COVID-19 information. Ads will run on TV, radio, in newspapers and on the web, and billboards and posters will repeat the messaging in rural villages. An army of credible messengers will target local influencers including religious leaders, faith healers and hospital administrators to continue dispelling vaccination myths door-to-door at a micro level.
COVID-19 surge in Indonesia compounded by lack of resources – The surge in COVID-19 cases in Indonesia, due to the Delta strain of coronavirus, has been exacerbated by insufficient resources. Java, the country’s main island, ran short of oxygen supplies, resulting in the death of 33 patients at Dr Sardjito General Hospital in Yogyakarta on Saturday, according to Banu Hermawan, a hospital spokesperson. The country currently has 295,000 active cases, with a total of 2.2 million cases and 60,000 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. Indonesia’s population is 270 million. “The spread of this virus variant is very fast,” Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin said during an online seminar on Sunday, where he suggested the virus had arrived through the country’s ports. Read more: The rise of COVID-19 in Papua New Guinea “Because many seaports in Indonesia carry goods and many also come from India, they enter from there.” Other experts have suggested the resurgence is due to travel at the end of Ramadan, where people headed to their home towns, along with lack of cohesive health policies and confusing messaging about restrictions and safety. Tougher restrictions and enforced curfews have now been introduced. “We are setting up (patrols) in 21 locations where typically there are crowds,” said Istiono, the head of national traffic police, on Friday. “Where there are street stalls and cafes, we will close those streets, maybe from around 6pm until 4am.” To date, Indonesia has administered 45.5 million doses of vaccine. Around 5% of Indonesians are fully vaccinated, which is lower than the 7% of Australians who are fully vaccinated from approximately 8 million doses. The country suspended use of AstraZeneca following concerns about side effects, so most of the vaccine administrations have been with Sinovac.
Indonesia to Import Oxygen Tanks as Health System Struggles –Indonesia plans to start importing oxygen tanks as the country battles a fresh wave of coronavirus infections that has overwhelmed its medical system. Local media have reported that hospitals in Java, the country’s most populated island, are facing a shortage of oxygen. More than 30 patients died in a hospital on Saturday in Yogyakarta after it briefly ran out of supply, CNN Indonesia reported on Sunday. The government is urging those with mild symptoms to be treated at home “because hospitals are full,” Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin said in a parliamentary hearing Monday. Bed occupancy rates at hospitals across the nation have hit 74%, with some exceeding 100%, said Lia Gardenia Partakusuma, secretary general of the National Hospital Association. Southeast Asia’s biggest economy recorded another deadliest day on Monday as fatalities hit 558 in the past 24 hours and 29,745 tested positive for the virus. More than 2.3 million have been infected, the worst in Southeast Asia. The latest outbreak threatens economic recovery as the government warns growth may slow to around 4% in the second quarter amid tighter curbs on movements. Growth may improve in the third quarter if the virus spread can be contained by July, said Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The numbers are likely to stay high over the next 10 to 14 days, driven by the highly contagious delta strain of the virus, Luhut Binsar Panjaitan, who leads the pandemic response in Java and Bali, told reporters Saturday. Mobility has to be reduced by 50% to be able to slow the spread of the delta variant, according to health ministry’s spokesman Jodi Mahardi. Jakarta still saw high traffic on Monday, the first work day since the curbs came into effect, Governor Anies Baswedan said in a briefing. Companies in essential and critical sectors will have to register their employees, and people are urged to report any non-essential companies that tell their employees to go to office, he said. Indonesia will take stern action against those who flout restrictions, including shutting businesses, and have asked the police to investigate those who hoard drugs and manipulate their prices for profit, Panjaitan said in a Monday briefing. The government is also tightening restrictions in 43 regencies outside of Java and Bali, imposing shorter operating hours and limited capacity for offices, restaurants and shopping malls, said Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto in a late Monday briefing.
Indonesia oxygen shortage: Dozens of covid patients die as hospital’s supply runs out – Washington Post –Dozens of patients died when a public hospital on the island of Java nearly ran out of oxygen over the weekend, underscoring dire oxygen shortages in parts of Indonesia as the island nation suffers from a major coronavirus outbreak. Sixty-three patients died between Saturday and early Sunday at the Dr. Sardjito General Hospital in Yogyakarta city, CNN reported, citing a statement released by the hospital. The hospital’s oxygen supply was replenished as of early Sunday morning. But the episode highlighted the strain Indonesia’s hospitals are experiencing amid a variant-driven surge of infections and a sluggish vaccination campaign. Indonesia’s geography – consisting of a string of islands between the Pacific and Indian oceans – has also complicated the distribution of critical medical supplies, including oxygen. “Due to an increase of three to four times in the amount [of oxygen] needed, the distribution has been hampered,” said Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, the coordinating minister for maritime affairs and investment, according to the Associated Press.The deadly shortage in Yogyakarta came after Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin said last week that the government had guaranteed oxygen for covid-19 patients. He also told CNBC that Indonesia had “learned from our neighbors” about the threat of oxygen scarcity and that the country had capacity to ramp up oxygen production.However, oxygen “is not well spread,” he said, “because the factories are mostly located in west Java and east Java, not in central Java. That is where … we see the lack of oxygen, because of distribution issues rather than supply issues.”Scenes of overwhelmed hospitals and desperate struggles to procure oxygen in nearby India in the spring served as a warning to neighboring countries that are now experiencing their own severe outbreaks.The Sardjito hospital said in a statement that it had sought more oxygen for days before its supplies almost ran out, but that the number of virus patients over the weekend had overwhelmed the hospital, CNN reported.
Indonesia running out of oxygen as coronavirus infections surge – Indonesia is grappling with a shortage of oxygen amid a surge of coronavirus cases in the country. Between Saturday and early Sunday local time, 63 patients died at a hospital on one of the country’s islands, Java, after their oxygen supplies had nearly been used up, CNN reported. Though the hospital had tried acquire more resources, oxygen supplies were used up faster than expected after the hospital saw a wave of COVID-19 patients that outpaced its capacity. The hospital was able to receive fresh supplies by early Sunday morning. A hospital spokesperson could not confirm to CNN if all of the patients who died were COVID-19 patients. As a whole, the daily oxygen need in Indonesia is nearly outpacing by production. The AP reports that demand has reached 1,928 tons of oxygen per day, and government data says that available production capacity is 2,262 tons a day. Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s minister in charge of the country’s pandemic response, said it received a shipment on Friday from Singapore of 1,000 ventilators, oxygen cylinders and other supplies, The Associated Press reported. He said they also received a shipment from Australia of an additional 1,000 ventilators. Pandjaitan added that the country planned to buy 36,000 tons of oxygen, and 10,000 concentrators from Singapore, according to the wire service. “I asked for 100% of oxygen go to medical purposes first, meaning that all industrial allocations must be transferred to medical,” said Pandjaitan, according to AP. “We are racing against time, we have to work fast.” It’s a very different picture than that of two months ago, when Indonesia was supplies oxygen for India, where the delta variant was first identified. The need for oxygen comes after the country donated about 3,400 oxygen cylinders and concentrators to India at the height of the country’s surge. However, plans to send another 2,000 oxygen concentrators to India in mid-June were cancelled as the number of cases surged in Indonesia, according to the AP. Since the start of the pandemic, World Health Organization (WHO) reports the country has seen 2.4 million confirmed cases of the coronavirus and over 64,000 confirmed deaths from the disease. The AP notes that those numbers are expected to be higher because of poor contact tracing and low testing.
Israel faces new coronavirus outbreak due to the Delta variant – Israel, the world’s third-most vaccinated country by share of the population, is experiencing a new outbreak of COVID-19 due to the more contagious Delta variant. The Health Ministry reported 343 new cases on July 4, the most cases in three months. Since first being detected on April 16, the Delta variant now comprises 90 percent of coronavirus cases in Israel. The outbreak is particularly concerning given Israel’s vaccination program. According to Our World in Data, Israel has currently given at least one dose to 65 percent of its population, bested only by the United Kingdom’s 67 percent and Canada’s 69 percent. Until early June, Israel was the most vaccinated country by this metric. About 56 percent of Israelis are fully vaccinated, most with the vaccine produced by Pfizer. The Health Ministry expects new cases to increase to 500-600 per day this week, while a team at Hebrew University warn that daily cases could reach 1,000 in two weeks. Daily new cases peaked at an all time high on January 17 with a seven-day-average just over of 8,600 per day and fell to a low of less than 10 on June 9. With the resurgence of the virus, the government has reinstituted some measures, including an indoor mask mandate, and has resumed meetings of the so-called coronavirus cabinet. Not only is the Delta variant more contagious, but it also appears to partially evade immunity provided by the vaccines which had previously been regarded as the most effective, including the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine. According to the Ynet news site, Health Ministry data show that the Pfizer vaccine is now 64 percent effective in preventing infection, whereas before the rise of the Delta variant in Israel it was 94.3 percent effective. This is corroborated by a study from Hadassah University Medical Center and Hebrew University, which estimate the Pfizer vaccine’s effectiveness against the Delta COVID-19 variant at 60-80 percent. However, the vaccines do seem to largely protect against severe disease, hospitalization and death. Ynet reports that recent Health Ministry data show 93 percent effectiveness against severe disease, whereas previously it was 98.2 percent. Given the delay between infection and hospitalization, and between hospitalization and death, the real effectiveness against the Delta variant may be slightly lower. This is comparable to initial data from the UK and Singapore on severe illness.
Euro 2020 football cup linked to thousands of COVID-19 cases as delta variant sweeps Europe – The delayed 2020 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) Football Championship (Euro 2020) began a year late on June 11 and is now at the semi-final stage. While in previous Euro cups one nation has hosted the competition, Euro 2020 has seen 24 national teams play in 11 different cities across Europe, from Seville to Baku. Tournament matches have been attended by over 800,000 fans despite the resurgence of COVID-19. Many of those in attendance travelled hundreds or thousands of miles to watch their team play. Next week’s semi-final and final matches are due to be attended by over 60,000 fans each at London’s Wembley stadium, though Britain is deep into a third wave of coronavirus driven by the more deadly and more infectious delta variant. England’s Round of 16 victory against Germany at Wembley Stadium, attended by more than 40,000 fans, led to wild celebrations of thousands of closely-packed home fans shouting and singing arm-in-arm despite the “official” implementation of social distancing within stadiums. The government pushed forward with the large attendance at matches, and the media promoted celebrations violating social distancing measures as part of the ruling class’ effort to promote a “back to normal” attitude. Britain’s Conservative government also hopes to use the strong performance of the England team, which will play a semi-final against Denmark at Wembley Stadium on Wednesday. The intent is to raise nationalist fervour and distract from the government’s deadly herd immunity policy that has led to over 152,000 deaths where a death certificate mentions COVID-19 as one of the causes. On Saturday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson stood on a massive English flag draped across Downing Street to declare his support for the team before its quarter-final against Ukraine that evening. On Saturday, the UK had a seven-day average of 23,115 cases, up from 13,835 a week earlier. According to the British Medical Association, COVID-19 hospitalizations in Britain have risen 55 percent over this period. On June 30, the UK saw 331 new hospitalizations from COVID-19, the most since March 18. The spread of the delta variant in Britain is a warning for what is to come on the European continent, which has an even lower vaccination rate.
European states scrap social distancing as COVID-19 pandemic surges – The COVID-19 pandemic, driven by the Delta variant, is surging in Europe. New COVID-19 infections across Europe rose by 43 percent over the last week to 548,000, as European governments end social distancing measures. Over 80 percent of the cases were concentrated in Britain (190,294 cases), Russia (168,035) and Spain (89,036), where cases rose 148 percent. In several countries with smaller caseloads, however, infections are spreading even faster, pointing to the danger of a catastrophic rise of COVID-19 cases, despite ongoing vaccination campaigns. Weekly COVID-19 cases quadrupled in Luxembourg to 961, tripled in the Netherlands (to 11,480) and Greece (8,504), and doubled in Denmark (3,208). They rose around 50 percent in France (19,364) and Portugal (16,469). On July 1, World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge had said: “Last week, the number of cases rose by 10 percent, driven by increased mixing, travel, gatherings and easing of social restrictions.” He also warned that the Delta variant will dominate in Europe by August, under conditions where 63 percent of Europe’s population still has not received its first vaccine dose. Half the elderly and 40 percent of health care workers are unvaccinated. On this basis, he warned that “there will be a new wave in the WHO European region.” Kluge’s projections and warnings of a new wave of the pandemic exploding across Europe are being realized. Over 1.1 million people have already died of COVID-19 in Europe, but European governments are pressing ahead with unabashed contempt for human life, adopting opening policies leading to a new surge of millions of cases. By eliminating social distancing rules that undermine business profits, they thus hope to intensify the funnelling of social wealth to the top of society, after the pandemic last year saw bank bailouts increase Europe’s billionaires’ collective wealth by €1 trillion. Britain is leading the trend that is unfolding across Europe. After France scrapped social distancing rules for businesses on July 1, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson aims to end mask requirements and social distancing measures by July 19. Epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson has warned that the UK could see 150,000 to 200,000 by the end of the summer, but Johnson bluntly demanded that the economy and corporate profits take priority over lives. “We’re seeing rising hospital admissions, and we must reconcile ourselves, sadly, to more deaths from COVID,” Johnson said, adding: “We have to balance the risks of the disease and of continuing with legal restrictions, with their impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.” An indication of the scope of the disaster that could result was a study last month from Public Health England. It showed that so far, 117 people have died of the Delta variant in Britain, including 50 who were doubly vaccinated, as vaccinations bring down the death rate to 0.13 percent. However, even if this far lower death rate were to maintain itself despite the vast increase in circulation of the virus, this would mean 200 to 250 deaths per day in Britain by the end of the summer if Ferguson’s projections were realized.
British health secretary says infections expected to double in next two weeks -The British health secretary said Tuesday that coronavirus infections in the country are expected to double in the next two weeks as the United Kingdom lifts remaining restrictions on gatherings of people. “As we ease and go into the summer, we expect them to rise significantly, and they could go as high as 100,000 case numbers,” Sajid Javid said on BBC radio.Despite the expected jump in numbers, Javid stressed the concern is about hospitalizations and deaths, which are at better levels than previously recorded.“What matters more than anything is hospitalization and death numbers, and that is where the link has been severely weakened,” Javid said.“Just to put a number on that – at the moment, we are seeing around 25,000 new cases a day. The last time was saw numbers like that, we sadly had deaths of around 500 a day. And now we are at about one-thirtieth of that,” he added.The increase in cases is stemming from the delta variant that has caused many countries to see a spike in cases, including in countries with strong vaccination programs.Despite the rise in cases, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Monday all coronavirus restrictions will be lifted July 19. This includes capacity limits and social distancing rules being lifted.
Africa marks its ‘worst pandemic week’ yet, with cases surging and vaccine scarce, the W.H.O. says. – Africa has just had its “worst pandemic week ever,” the World Health Organization said on Thursday. The continent is short of vaccines, and the virus is sickening its young people and overwhelming its already fragile health care systems.More than 251,000 new cases were reported in Africa in the week ending July 4, a 20 percent increase from the previous week, according to Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the W.H.O. regional director for Africa.For several weeks now, the continent has been experiencing a brutal wave of infections driven by the more contagious Delta variant, which is increasing hospitalization and fatalities, filling intensive-care beds, depleting oxygen supplies and pushing governments to institute new lockdown measures.Sixteen African countries are reporting a resurgence in infections, with Malawi and Senegal added to the list this week. New case counts are doubling every 18 days, Dr. Moeti said, and have been rising for seven straight weeks.“A few weeks ago, we projected this milestone would be reached shortly, and it brings me no joy to be right,” Dr. Moeti said at a news conference on Thursday. “For Africa, the worst is yet to come,” she warned, adding, “The end to this precipitous rise is still weeks away.”A third wave of the pandemic is ripping through countries mainly in southern and eastern Africa, and one country in North Africa – Tunisia – is experiencing its fourth wave. Namibia, a nation of just over 2.5 million people, has been recording more than 1,000 new cases a day, and several senior government officials have succumbed to the virus. A spike in cases in Zambia has pushed the government to restrict social gatherings and close schools. In Uganda, which was praised for its initial coronavirus response, hospitals have been stretched thin, with some patients racking up huge medical bills. Rwanda restricted movement in its capital late last month, and Kenya instituted partial lockdowns and extended curfew hours in over a dozen counties where the Delta variant was contributing to surges.Many African countries continue to face challenges in detecting and sequencing virus variants, Dr. Moeti said. Testing and tracing remain limited as well: In a continent of 1.3 billion people, just over 54 million Covid-19 tests have been conducted, according to Dr. John Nkengasong, the director of the Africa C.D.C.But the biggest challenge has been vaccination. With just over 53 million doses administered, only about 1 percent of Africa’s population is fully vaccinated.African officials have accused wealthy nations of hoarding vaccine doses while millions of Africans remain vulnerable. Most African countries are dependent on the Covax vaccine-sharing initiative, which has been severely hampered by the Indian government’s decision in April to hold back doses manufactured there for domestic use and restrict exports.
The world’s known Covid death toll passes four million. -The world’s known coronavirus death toll passed four million on Thursday, a loss roughly equivalent to the population of Los Angeles, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.It took nine months for the virus to claim one million lives, and the pace has quickened since then. The second million were lost in three and a half months, the third in three months, and the fourth in about two and a half months. The number of daily reported deaths has declined recently.Those are officially reported figures, which are widely believed to undercount pandemic-related deaths.“The numbers may not tell the complete story, and yet they’re still really staggering numbers globally,” said Jennifer B. Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health.Ms. Nuzzo said the number of excess deaths reported around the world suggested that “lower-income countries have been much harder hit than their official numbers would suggest.”Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization, called four million dead a tragic milestone on Wednesday, and said the toll was continuing to mount largely because of dangerous versions of the virus and inequities in the distribution of vaccines.“Compounded by fast-moving variants and shocking inequity in vaccination, far too many countries in every region of the world are seeing sharp spikes in cases and hospitalizations,” Dr. Tedros said at a news conference.The official death toll numbers tell only part of the horrifying pandemic story. In many places, people have died without family to comfort them because of rules to prevent the spread of the virus. And many countries were completely overrun.The dead overwhelmed cremation grounds in India in May, whereat least 400,000 confirmed deaths have been reported and the actual number is likely higher. That was also the case in funeral homes in the United States, which surpassed 600,000 known deathslast month.
Pandemic surges in South Korea as government pushes to end social distancing The number of daily new COVID-19 cases is rising again in South Korea, reaching their highest levels in months, including 1,275 infections on July 7. The number of new cases in Seoul the previous day reached 583, the most in the city since the pandemic began. The numbers continue to climb as the more dangerous and contagious delta variant begins to take hold. However, central and local governments are pushing to remove even the limited measures in place to control the virus. Since the end of January, new cases of COVID-19 in South Korea have ranged between 300 and 700 per day, but plans remain to relax social distancing measures. On June 24, when the government announced it would proceed, despite an uptick in cases, the seven-day national average for new infections stood at 489. As of July 6, the number had shot up to 768. In total, more than 2,000 people have died from the virus. The central government enacted a new 4-tier social distancing scheme on July 1, which ends most of the measures throughout the country, with the exception of the Seoul metropolitan area, where approximately 80 percent of the new infections have been discovered. This region, which includes the capital city, Gyeonggi Province, and Incheon, is densely populated and home to approximately half of South Korea’s 51 million residents. The “Level 1″ restrictions in place for the rest of the country are basically non-existent. The new rules lift curfews on businesses, such as restaurants and bars, so long as they maintain the inadequate 1 meter of space between customers, and allow an unlimited number of people to gather. While provincial and city governments have stated they will maintain a cap of eight people on groups in public, they also plan to remove this restriction by July 14. Given the surge in cases in the Seoul area, the government postponed the relaxation of social distancing until July 7, and has extended restrictions again for another week. This means public gatherings of five or more people are banned and most businesses must close by 10pm.
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