Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 11July 2021

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

News posted last week about economic effects related to the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some articles are summarized here. We cover the latest economic data, especially the prospects for an infrastructure bill, stimulus checks, government funding, the Fed, the latest employment data, housing market reports, mortgage delinquencies & forbearance, travel, layoffs, lockdowns, and schools, as well as infrastructure and GDP. The bulk of the news is from the U.S., with a few more articles from overseas at the end. (Picture below is morning rush hour in downtown Chicago, 20 March 2020.) News items about epidemiology and other medical news for the virus are reported in a companion article.

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I again left 5 articles on the infrastructure bill negotiations in this collection to provide ongoing background on that, even though its connection to Covid is tenuous at best. There are more stories from Europe this week than we’ve had lately.

The news:

Fed Officials See Earlier End for Bond Buying, Emphasize Patience – WSJ – Federal Reserve officials suggested that they might need to pull back their support for the economy sooner than they had anticipated because of stronger-than-expected growth this year. Fed officials discussing the matter at their June 15-16 policy meeting weren’t ready to reduce their $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities, according to minutes of the gathering released Wednesday. But an unspecified number thought that time could be approaching.”Various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of incoming data,” the minutes said. Others saw recent reports of weaker-than-expected hiring as reason to be patient in assessing their next moves.The minutes offer a strong sign officials will ramp up more formal deliberations at their next meeting, July 27-28, over when and how to reduce the bond buying. Officials generally judged that, “as a matter of prudent planning, it was important to be well positioned to reduce the pace of asset purchases, if appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including faster-than-anticipated progress” toward the Fed’s inflation and employment goals or risks of too much inflation. The minutes showed officials still expect recent inflation surges to be temporary, driven primarily by bottlenecks and shortages stemming from the pandemic. But some officials raised concern that consumers’ and businesses’ expectations of future inflation “might rise to inappropriate levels if elevated inflation readings persisted,” the minutes said. Central bankers believe inflation expectations can be self-fulfilling. At last month’s meeting, 13 of 18 officials projected they would raise interest rates from near zero by 2023, with most expecting to raise their benchmark rate by 0.5 percentage point. Seven expected to raise rates next year. In March, most officials expected to hold rates steady through 2023. The projections revealed growing divisions over the likely path for policy two years from now and jarred some investors who hadn’t expected more officials to project rate rises over the next 21/2 years. The minutes largely reflect similar rifts, with one camp stressing risks of unwelcome inflationary pressures and another warning against drawing firm conclusions given the nature of the recent shocks.

FOMC Minutes: “Inflation Risks tilted to upside”, Begin reducing asset purchases “somewhat earlier” — From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 15-16, 2021. A few excerpts:In discussing the uncertainty and risks associated with the economic outlook, participants commented that the process of reopening the economy was unprecedented and likely to be uneven across sectors. Some participants judged that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicated the task of assessing progress toward the Committee’s goals and that the speed at which these factors would dissipate was uncertain. Accordingly, participants judged that uncertainty around their economic projections was elevated. Although they generally saw the risks to the outlook for economic activity as broadly balanced, a substantial majority of participants judged that the risks to their inflation projections were tilted to the upsidebecause of concerns that supply disruptions and labor shortages might linger for longer and might have larger or more persistent effects on prices and wages than they currently assumed. Several participants expressed concern that longer-term inflation expectations might rise to inappropriate levels if elevated inflation readings persisted. Several other participants cautioned that downside risks to inflation remained because temporary price pressures might unwind faster than currently anticipated and because the forces that held down inflation and inflation expectations during the previous economic expansion had not gone away or might reinforce the effect of the unwinding of temporary price pressures. […] Participants discussed the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases and progress toward the Committee’s goals since last December when the Committee adopted its guidance for asset purchases. The Committee’s standard of “substantial further progress” was generally seen as not having yet been met, though participants expected progress to continue. Various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of incoming data. …Various participants offered their views on the Committee’s agency MBS purchases. Several participants saw benefits to reducing the pace of these purchases more quickly or earlier than Treasury purchases in light of valuation pressures in housing markets. Several other participants, however, commented that reducing the pace of Treasury and MBS purchases commensurately was preferable because this approach would be well aligned with the Committee’s previous communications or because purchases of Treasury securities and MBS both provide accommodation through their influence on broader financial conditions. In coming meetings, participants agreed to continue assessing the economy’s progress toward the Committee’s goals and to begin to discuss their plans for adjusting the path and composition of asset purchases. In addition, participants reiterated their intention to provide notice well in advance of an announcement to reduce the pace of purchases.

US Fed minutes reveal divisions but money flow set to continue – The minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s June 15 – 16 meeting reveal there were significant differences among the members of its governing body over the direction of monetary policy amid considerable uncertainty over the path of the US economy. Pointing to what it called a “vigorous debate,” the Financial Times said the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee “showed two prevailing camps wrangling over whether the US economy was ready for a speedier reduction of its $120bn asset purchasing program.” The debate would take “centre stage” in coming months, it suggested. The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, DC (Source: Wikimedia/Rdsmith4) The minutes are written in anodyne language, which does not fully capture the extent of the differences, but what happened is clearly evident from the record and what followed. The differences centred on two key questions: the direction of interest rate policy and at what point the Fed should start winding back its program of monthly asset purchases comprising $80 billion of Treasury bonds and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Fed has said it will start to wind back support for financial markets, initiated in response to the near meltdown in March 2020, when there is “substantial further progress” towards its stated goals of inflation at 2 percent and full employment. According to the minutes, the committee’s standard was “generally seen as not having been met, though participants expected progress to continue.” They went on to note that “various participants mentioned they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of incoming data.” However, this assessment was countered by others who urged caution in reading too much into current data and that information in coming months would provide a “better assessment of the path of the labour market and inflation.” However, in a concession to those pushing for a speedier move towards a tighter monetary policy, the minutes noted that “as a matter of prudent planning, it was important to be well-positioned to reduce the pace of asset purchases, if appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments.” The issues centre on whether present level of inflation, running at 5 percent in the year to May, is “transitory” – as maintained by Fed chair Jerome Powell and others – or whether it will become a permanent feature as a result of government and monetary stimulus – as warned by former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and others. The minutes recorded that “a few” officials said they expected the economy would be ready for a rise in interest rates sooner than had been previously expected. But there was a pushback against this assessment. “Several participants emphasised … that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook was elevated” and this implied “significant uncertainty about the appropriate path for the federal funds rate.”

Interest Rate Paths for the Treasury Ten Year – Menzie Chinn – As the pace of growth has picked up, forecasts of ten year Treasury yields have risen as well. Here are some recent ones. Figure 1: Ten year constant maturity Treasury yields (black), CBO (red), Administration (blue), Survey of Professional Forecasters (teal), and WSJ April (gray x). Dates in graph pertain to forecast finalization.Source: CBO An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook (July), FY2022 Budget (June), Philadelphia Fed SPF (May), WSJ survey (April). While there are some notable divergences, what is true is that through mid-2022, the CBO projection is not far off from professional forecasters as surveyed by WSJ or Philadelphia Fed. On the other hand, the upward shift in the projected trajectory has largely followed recent actual developments in yields, with reversion to mean in the out years (which is based on 1994-2004 averages of input variables as described in this document). Figure 2: Ten year constant maturity Treasury yields (black), CBO July 2021 Outlook (red), February (blue), July 2020 (teal), January 2020 (gray). Dates in graph pertain to forecast finalization. Source: CBO, various dates. The 50 bps increase in yields for the two year period to 2023Q2 is about equal to the 40 bps increase in actual yield going from January to June.This pattern of forecast revisions – with predictions generally overshooting actual in recent decades – is not specific to CBO. More on this in this post.

The Delta Variant: Macro Implications – Menzie Chinn – From DB, does the UK presage the US? Graphics Source: Yared, “The case against cases,” Deutsche Bank, June 29, 2021. Goldman Sachs presents data on the share of cases now accounted for by Delta Variant in various countries: While cases might rise rapidly in parts of the US that have low vaccination rates, Yared et al. conclude that given the timing (summer), and the fact that hospitalization rates haven’t risen in tandem with cases in the UK:(1) the focus should shift from cases to hospitalisations and (2) the delta variant should not materially impact the reopening in the EZ and the US. I hope that’s an accurate prediction. See here for an examination of how vaccination rates vary across the geographic distribution of GDP.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy – These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of July 5th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 18.9% from the same day in 2019 (81.1% of 2019). The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through July 4th, 2021. This data is “a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining is generally picking up, but was down 13% in the US (7-day average compared to 2019). Florida and Texas are above 2019 levels. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 1st. Movie ticket sales were at $140 million last week, down about 54% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Occupancy is now above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid. This data is through June 26th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 7% compared to same week in 2019). Note: Occupancy was up year-over-year, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, the 4-week average occupancy is still down from normal levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of June 25th, gasoline supplied was down 3.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (about 96.6% of the same week in 2019). Five weeks ago was the only week this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities.” This is just a general guide – people that regularly commute probably don’t ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set “relative to its weekday-specific average over January – February”, and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can’t tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer. This data is through July 4th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 94% of the January 2020 level and moving up. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

House, Setting a Marker for Talks, Passes $715 Billion Infrastructure Bill – – The House on Thursday laid down its marker for this month’s infrastructure negotiations, approving a five-year, $715 billion transportation and drinking water bill that would do more to combat climate change than the Senate’s bipartisan measure embraced by President Biden. Democratic leaders see the bill as a baseline for talks with the Senate aimed at producing the largest investment in infrastructure since Dwight D. Eisenhower began the interstate highway system. The House measure, which would authorize a 50-percent increase over current spending levels, passed by a vote of 221-201, largely along party lines, a break from past infrastructure bills and a mark of how polarized Congress has become. It would devote $343 billion to roads, bridges and safety. Its $109 billion for transit would increase federal spending by 140 percent. An investment of $168 billion in funds for wastewater and drinking water includes a new program to forgive the unpaid water bills of Americans struggling through the pandemic, and then to help pay bills in the future, much as the government helps pay home heating and air conditioning costs. But with heat records being set from Arizona to Seattle, House Democrats emphasized the billions that would go toward electric car and truck charging stations, zero-emission transit vehicles and shoring up roads, bridges, tunnels and rail lines to withstand severe weather and rising seas driven by a changing climate. Funding for Amtrak would be tripled, to $32 billion, and high-speed rail planning would be underwritten. “We have to rebuild in ways that we never even thought about before,” said Representative Peter DeFazio of Oregon, chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, adding, “This is the moment. We have to be bold.” Just how the House Democratic vision of infrastructure will be melded with the deal struck by five Republicans and five Democrats in the Senate is anything but clear. The House bill and the Senate deal are not far apart in spending numbers on traditional infrastructure. Both efforts take up Mr. Biden’s call to replace all of the country’s lead drinking water pipes. But while the Senate framework only lays down broad categories of spending, the House bill extends surface transportation policies and user funds that are set to expire Oct. 1. It also established new policies like water bill assistance, buy American requirements and a pilot program for low-income transit access. “I’m suggesting that substantial amounts of the policy in our bill should be negotiated by the White House and the Senate and the House to be part of that bipartisan proposal,” Mr. DeFazio said, adding that he was encouraged by the movement in the Senate.

Bipartisan House group’s endorsement of Senate infrastructure plan could trip up Pelosi’s strategy – A group of Democratic and Republican House members on Tuesday endorsed the bipartisan infrastructure framework crafted by senators and the White House, but potentially complicated its path to passage along the way. The 58-member Problem Solvers Caucus said in a statement that it “strongly supports” the Senate proposal.. If the group’s 29 GOP members vote for the plan, House Democrats have room to lose support from skeptical progressives and still pass the roughly $1.2 trillion infrastructure framework. However, the group signaled it could try to trip up House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s strategy to pass the bipartisan plan in concert with a separate Democratic proposal to invest in child care, education and efforts to fight climate change. In its statement, the Problem Solvers Caucus called for “an expeditious, stand-alone vote in the House” on the bipartisan framework. Pelosi has indicated she will not take up either the compromise infrastructure bill or Democrats’ plan until the Senate passes both of them. The risky strategy came about as Democratic leaders try to ensure their centrist and liberal members back both proposals. President Joe Biden’s support for tying the bills together threatened the bipartisan deal until he backtracked, assuaging the GOP senators who backed the infrastructure plan. The 29 Democratic members of the Problem Solvers Caucus did not explicitly threaten to withhold support from either plan if the House does not vote on them separately. However, the group’s statement underscores the challenges Democratic leaders face in trying to get both the bipartisan plan and their broader priorities through Congress in the coming weeks. A Pelosi aide said the two proposals are expected to work their way through Congress at the same time, and the Problem Solvers Caucus call for a vote on the bipartisan plan is consistent with Democratic leaders’ plans. The Senate plans to move first to pass both proposals in the coming weeks – or months – after it returns from its Fourth of July recess. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has said he aims to move toward votes on the bipartisan framework and a budget resolution that would allow Democrats to approve a second bill without Republican support. The $1.2 trillion infrastructure measure includes $579 billion in new spending. It would put more than $300 billion into transportation, and more than $250 billion into power, broadband and water infrastructure. While at least 21 senators and the White House have signed on to the plan, lawmakers have not yet turned it into legislative text. Several liberal senators have threatened to oppose the bipartisan package. Among other concerns, they say the proposal does not invest enough in countering climate change or boosting electric vehicle adoption. By pairing the more narrow proposal with a larger bill filled with Democratic priorities, party leaders hoped to keep progressives on board with both measures.

McConnell vows ‘hell of a fight’ over infrastructure plan – Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is vowing to make the passage of a partisan infrastructure package as difficult as possible – calling Democrats’ multi-trillion dollar spending plans “wildly inappropriate” due to the impact previous mammoth spending packages have had on the national debt. McConnell noted that Democrats can use the reconciliation process to bypass the filibuster, which requires 60 votes in the upper chamber for passage, but added that there is going to be a “hell of a fight” if members across the aisle attempt to sidestep Republicans. “There is a process by which they could pass this without a single Republican. But we’re going to make it hard for them. And there are a few Democrats left in rural America and some others who would like to be more in the political center who may find this offensive,” he said at an event in Kentucky on Tuesday. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has called for the upper chamber to take up both the $1.2 trillion bipartisan deal and a budget resolution that would allow Democrats to pass a sweeping companion bill without Republican support by the end of the month. And Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has said the lower chamber will only take up the smaller-scale bill when the Senate moves on a reconciliation package. The Kentucky Republican said that the $1.2 trillion agreement would be met with support from Republicans, but sees the second infrastructure plan being pushed for by progressives as a nonstarter. “The era of bipartisanship on this stuff is over. This is not going to be done on a bipartisan basis. This is going to be a hell of a fight over what this country ought to look like. I don’t think we’ve had a bigger difference of opinion,” he said. McConnell went on to praise President Biden as “a nice guy,” but argued that he hasn’t “seen any evidence yet of moderation,” casting doubt on the probability of the passage of a deal that appeases both sides. “We’re not going to have an agreement. We’re going to have a big argument,” he said. “There’s no mandate to do this stuff. So we’re there to argue about this and to hopefully in the end prevail.”

Democrats wrestle over control of the infrastructure throttle – Democrats are hurtling toward their most consequential stretch of legislating since the passage of Obamacare, with major decisions left unmade as they wrangle over the size and scope of President Joe Biden’s sweeping domestic agenda. July and August will render a decisive verdict on Democrats’ so-called “two-track” strategy of enacting Biden’s jobs and families plans via twin bills, one with GOP support focusing on physical infrastructure and the other on a partisan spending plan centered on fighting climate change, increasing child care and raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Work on both items is nearing a climax, with senators in both parties drafting that centrist bill for a July Senate vote and the Senate’s 50 Democrats haggling over how big to go in their own party-line endeavor. Some House moderates are urging party leaders to focus squarely on the bipartisan bill, while many liberals remain skeptical it will happen at all – and Speaker Nancy Pelosi has threatened to sideline it without an accompanying Democratic package. A failed bipartisan result would force Democrats to write one huge spending bill marrying all their priorities. Taken together, Democrats’ decisions in the coming days will define what may be the largest spending bill in history, offering their best chance at reshaping the federal government for years to come. Biden’s party has a rare opportunity with full control over Congress and the White House, but its majorities are so slim that even attempting the two-part move will be a daredevil act. “If you add the two plans together, it would be the biggest bill in the history of the country,” said House Budget Chair John Yarmuth (D-Ky.). “There’s no way it’s going to be easy.” After three months of plodding negotiations, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has laid out an aggressive timetable that envisions passage of both a budget resolution to allow a huge Democrats-only tax and spending package plus a vote on a deal with Republican centrists to plow nearly $600 billion into roads, bridges and broadband. Schumer will reiterate the timetable in a Dear Colleague letter to Democrats on Friday, according to a Democratic aide, and warn of the possibility of working long nights, weekends and into the August recess to finish that work. The majority leader has been constantly dialing up White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain, as well as his members in the bipartisan group and committee chairs in charge of a party-line spending bill, whose work will run into the trillions. Every Democrat knows that the partisan legislation could be this year’s last big train to which they can hitch their long-sought priorities, and demand is high. Budget Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) wants Medicare expansion, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) is pressing for immigration reform and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) is pushing her colleagues on child care spending. A whole slate of progressives want a major climate focus. And there will be restraints on spending from moderates and from the Senate parliamentarian on what can pass muster and avoid a GOP filibuster. While Sanders initially suggested spending $6 trillion to complement the bipartisan deal, more moderate members are likely to tamp that down to $4 trillion or even lower – depending in large part what moderate Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) agree to. Asked if she had a number in mind, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) replied: “Yeah, $6 trillion.”

Senate may work into August to pass infrastructure plan, set the stage for huge spending bill – The Senate may work into its August recess to pass both a bipartisan infrastructure plan and a budget resolution that would allow Democrats to enact a range of priorities without Republican support, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Friday. In a letter to his caucus, the New York Democrat said senators are working with the White House to turn the $1.2 trillion infrastructure framework into legislation. The Senate Budget Committee is also crafting a measure that would allow Democrats to pass a sprawling child-care, health-care and climate policy plan without a GOP vote. “My intention for this work period is for the Senate to consider both the bipartisan infrastructure legislation and a budget resolution with reconciliation instructions, which is the first step for passing legislation through the reconciliation process,” Schumer wrote ahead of the chamber’s return to Washington next week. “Please be advised that time is of the essence and we have a lot of work to do. Senators should be prepared for the possibility of working long nights, weekends, and remaining in Washington into the previously-scheduled August state work period,” he continued. The Senate is scheduled to leave Washington from Aug. 9 to Sept. 10. The coming weeks will shape the agenda Democratic leaders President Joe Biden, Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi can pass before next year’s midterm elections. They aim to create a stronger social safety net, jolt the post-coronavirus economy and set the groundwork to curb climate change. The Democratic leaders have to balance competing interests within their party to push both huge proposals through Congress. Some liberals have criticized the lack of funding in the bipartisan plan to address the climate crisis and transition to green energy. A few centrist Democrats, led by Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, have questioned spending trillions of dollars on a Democrats-only bill. Senate Democrats cannot lose a single vote on the reconciliation bill in a Senate split 50-50 by party. Pelosi, a California Democrat, also has to navigate a slim majority in the House. Pelosi reiterated Thursday that she wants the Senate to pass both the infrastructure plan and budget reconciliation measure before the House takes up either proposal. “I have said that I really cannot take up the reconciliation, until we see the infrastructure and – cannot take up the infrastructure until we see infrastructure and reconciliation addressed by the Senate,” she said. Eleven Republican senators have supported the bipartisan plan, enough for it to pass if all Democrats get on board. However, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has not yet endorsed the framework. About two dozen business and labor groups backed the infrastructure proposal Thursday, potentially giving it a boost as the Senate tries to bring it to a vote. The organizations, including the Chamber of Commerce and AFL-CIO, said they “urge Congress to turn this framework into legislation that will be signed into law,” adding they are “committed to helping see this cross the finish line.”

Biden to Target Railroads, Ocean Shipping in Executive Order – WSJ – The Biden administration will push regulators to confront consolidation and perceived anticompetitive pricing in the ocean shipping and railroad industries as part of a broad effort to blunt the power of big business to dominate industries, according to a person familiar with the situation. The administration, in a sweeping executive order expected this week, will ask the Federal Maritime Commission and the Surface Transportation Board to combat what it calls a pattern of consolidation and aggressive pricing that has made it onerously expensive for American companies to transport goods to market. The administration says the relatively small number of major players in the ocean-shipping trade and in the U.S. freight rail business has enabled companies to charge unreasonable fees. In the case of the seven Class 1 freight railroads, consolidation has given railroads monopoly power over sections of the country where theirs are the only freight tracks, the person said. The executive order will encourage the STB to take up a longstanding proposed rule on so-called reciprocal or competitive switching, the practice whereby shippers served by a single railroad can request bids from a nearby competing railroad if service is available. The competitor railroad would pay access fees to the monopoly railroad, but could win the shipper’s business by offering a lower price, using the rival railroad’s tracks and property. The STB proposed a competitive switching rule in 2016 but hasn’t yet acted on it. “The consolidation brought about much-needed rationalization in the system 25 years ago, but the net result is a lot of shippers who are subject to a market-dominant railroad,” said a government official briefed on the White House’s proposal for the STB. But a move to mandate switching would guarantee a battle with the freights and the railroad trade association, the Association of American Railroads, which has long opposed the policy. “Competition remains fierce across freight providers, and any proposal mandating forced switching would put railroads – an environmentally friendly option that invests $25 billion annually in infrastructure – at an untold disadvantage,”

Progressives ramp up Medicare expansion push in Congress –Progressives are ramping up their push to expand Medicare in an upcoming legislative package, with the goal of lowering the eligibility age and adding new benefits. The Congressional Progressive Caucus made its case to White House counselor Steve Ricchetti in a meeting Tuesday, saying they want eligibility to kick in at 60 instead of 65 and coverage extended to dental, vision and hearing. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is also vocally pushing the group’s proposals, saying too many seniors “can’t chew food properly” because they don’t have dental coverage. But the campaign faces headwinds from a slew of health care priorities competing for a limited amount of dollars, as well as concerns from the industry and moderate Democrats who worry about lowering the Medicare age. Advocates and congressional aides say adding new benefits has a significantly better chance of making it into the Democratic-only package than lowering the eligibility age. Changing the age is more politically controversial, as it opens up the debate about moving toward “Medicare for All.” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said the White House is not opposed to adding the Medicare provisions, and is even supportive, provided the votes are there in both chambers. “As long as we can get to 218 votes and 50 votes in the Senate, they’re excited about it,” Jayapal told The Hill. But she said she has also been pressing the White House for more public support. “We’ve been asking them to continue to push for that, to make it a real priority, and mostly we get positive answers,” she said. The White House budget request for fiscal 2022 includes a call to lower the Medicare age and add dental, hearing and vision benefits, but those proposals were notably left out of President Biden’s $1.8 trillion American Families Plan, prompting questions about whether expansion is a top priority for the administration. “We knew it wasn’t gonna be in there,” Jayapal said. “But I think the main thing is, can we get it in there? I mean, the president proposes and we write.” The health care industry is opposed to lowering the Medicare eligibility age, seeing it as a step toward more government-run coverage and away from private coverage. The Partnership for America’s Health Care Future, a group including pharmaceutical companies, hospitals and insurers, is running ads against lowering the Medicare age, as part of a seven-figure ad buy. “What sounds too good to be true usually is. As analysis tells us, what seems so simple would actually result in the largest and most costly overhaul of Medicare,” Chip Kahn, CEO of the Federation of American Hospitals, said last month. In addition to the cost to taxpayers, hospitals worry that Medicare pays lower rates to medical providers than private insurers do, which industry leaders warn could lead to damaging cuts. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that lowering the Medicare age to 60 would cost $200 billion over 10 years. Adding dental, vision and hearing would cost another $358 billion over 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2019. Allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices could provide savings of up to roughly $500 billion to help pay for these measures, but it is also possible that proposal will be scaled back, depending on moderate Democratic concerns.

Democrats Prepare to Privatize Medicare, Using Medicare Advantage as Their Opening Wedge (and New York Unions?) – Lambert Strether –The Democrats, flushed with triumph at having taken Medicare for All “off the table” – during a pandemic! – when they “beat the socialist,” have initiated a process that will culminate in Medicare’s complete privatization. (This after having implemented an NHS-style “free at the point of care” vaccination program, too.) In this post, I’ll first look at the current state of Medicare; the neoliberal infestation is bad. Then, I’ll look at the Democrat’s privatization scheme. (I am looking at Medicare through the lens of political economy; sadly, I cannot give advice on Medicare for your individual state, but there is a program of volunteers who can do that. I believe we have at least one reader in this program.) This will be a long post, but I feel it’s important to lay down some markers, here.

Next Challenge to the PPACA? – We have been through several constitutional tests on the legitimacy of the PPACA. In each case and also in a congressional vote, the Republicans have failed to disenfranchise US citizens on healthcare. The next issue being brought to the forefront is just as divisive and has the backing of five right-leaning justices. It remains to be seen if they can be successful. There is supporting documentation at the end of this post. “The legal arguments in are not exactly good arguments, but five justices have signaled they agree with them.” The suit before the Texas federal judge Reed O’Connor having given SCOTUS the last PPACA challenge appears ready to lob another suit its way. Kelley v. Becerra will eventually get to SCOTUS unless there is enlightened federal judge stopping it or Appeals Court with SCOTUS refusing to review it. It is currently pending in Texas before Judge Reed O’Connor. If you do not recall, Texas Judge Reed O’Connor struck down the entire Affordable Care Act on the basis that parts of the PPACA are not severable. The theory being, the PPACA must be struck in entirety as parts of it can not be excluded (in this case the mandate). The Roberts Supreme Court refused to take it up. Not really a win as it should have never got this far. Kelley v. Becerra complainants are individuals and small companies wanting to buy insurance that excludes coverage for contraception and pre-exposure prophylaxis. The complainants object to on religious and moral grounds. The kind of insurance they are looking for is impossible to find, they say. The complainants blame the Affordable Care Act. Via Vox comes the argument:Kelley v. Becerra is the fourth round of litigation attacking major provisions of the Affordable Care Act.The complainants seek to remove the provisions of Obamacare governing forms of preventive care such as birth control, immunization for children, etc., cancer screenings, etc. which is covered by health insurers under the PPACA.The argument relies on the kind of outdated legal arguments in the federal courts more than 80 years ago. Only an originalist would think of this.Several provisions of the Affordable Care Act require group and individual health plans to cover various preventive treatmentsand to not “impose any cost sharing requirements,” such as copays, deductibles, for them. When Congress wrote Obamacare, however, it did not itemize which treatments must be covered. Instead, it delegated that power to three different government bodies.Supreme Court: A new lawsuit attacking Obamacare is a serious threat to the law, VoxThere in lies the issue, the delegation of authority without detail and to non-officers of the government. This is similar to the issue with the Risk Corridor Funding. Congress did not allocate funding. Sessions, Upton, and Kingston blocked theAdministration from allocating or transferring funds. The Executive branch can not allocate funding, only Congress can (GAO-letter to Sessions). Follow the link for an explanation.

Pressure grows for Biden to ease pandemic travel bans -The Biden administration is coming under pressure to ease travel bans for international tourists that were originally put in place to stem the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. With Europe opening its borders to American tourists and vaccination rates increasing in the U.S., public health experts and travel industry groups are saying the time is right to restart international travel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that the U.S. is looking to the advice of medical experts on the best course of action, but that a group of American and European officials are working together on an agreement. But critics say the administration needs to move faster, slamming travel bans as unrelated to the spread of COVID-19 and raising concern about the loss of revenue from international business travel, summer vacations and foreign students trying to arrive before the fall semester. The administration’s travel bans are “frozen in time,” said Steve Shur, president of the Travel Technology Association, a trade organization that partners with online travel agents, airlines and hotels. “We believe it’s possible now, at least for countries of low risk, to start to reopen international travel” to the U.S., he said. Travel into the U.S. from abroad is largely shut down, with exceptions for American citizens returning from abroad, family members of U.S. citizens and individuals from exempted groups such as international students. The U.S.-entry bans target travelers from China, Iran, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Brazil and South Africa. In April, President Biden banned travel from India as COVID-19 cases surged in the country. But experts say picking and choosing countries based off of COVID-19 infections is arbitrary because the disease, including the more dangerous delta variant, is already entrenched in the U.S. “It makes no sense, if you look at that list of countries, it’s completely nonsensical,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown Law. “Even if you could accurately pick and choose, which you really can’t, by the time you’ve implemented the policy it’s changed,” he added, noting that by the time large outbreaks of COVID-19 rose to international attention in India or Brazil, travelers from these countries were already coming and going through the United States.

Coronavirus infections surge among detained immigrants in US -As the number of migrants imprisoned in US detention centers grows, immigration officials are reporting a major surge in COVID-19 infections among detainees. Very few detainees are vaccinated against the virus, and public health experts worry that the crowded detention facilities could fuel outbreaks not only among those detained, but also in the general population. As of June 23, there were 765 active COVID-19 cases among migrants in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody. According to ICE, the number of migrants being held in detention centers has nearly doubled in recent months. In April, the agency reported some 14,000 migrants in detention. Last week the agency reported that more than 26,000 people were being detained. Within that same period, more than 7,500 new COVID-19 cases have been reported in US immigration facilities, accounting for more than 40 percent of all cases reported in ICE facilities since the pandemic began, according to a New York Times analysis of federal data. ICE previously confirmed over 10,000 cases of COVID-19 among detainees in its detention facilities across the US as of March of this year. It also confirmed eight deaths. The virus also impacted over 27,000 Border Patrol employees, who either became infected or were unable to work due to illness or quarantining, including 24 who died. The increase in apprehensions, detentions and infections takes place amid the Biden administration’s escalating campaign against immigrants. Vice President Kamala Harris visited Guatemala and Mexico last month. In addition to telling migrants, “Do not come,” she urged the authorities to shore up their security forces to violently suppress the flow of Central American migrants seeking to escape societies ravaged by more than a century of US imperialist exploitation and oppression. In April, the Biden administration summarily deported 111,714 of the more than 178,000 migrants detained by US Border Patrol. The administration is continuing to invoke Title 42, a Trump-era Centers for Disease Control and Prevention public health order ostensibly aimed at controlling the pandemic by closing the southern border, as justification for its violation of international and US laws on the right to asylum. The tens of thousands of migrants trapped in immigration jails face inhumane conditions, with immigrants, including children, subjected to overcrowding, extreme cold and inedible food. As of May, according to ICE’s latest available data, only about 20 percent of detainees passing through the centers had received at least one dose of a vaccine while in custody. Such conditions guarantee a rapid spread of the disease. Nearly one in three inmates of federal and state prisons and jails are currently testing positive for the virus.

Thousands Of Convicts Freed During Pandemic Will Soon Be Sent Back To Prison –Across the US, thousands of formerly incarcerated prisoners were released from prison (albeit with the understanding that their limited freedom would likely be temporary) as COVID swept through America’s prisons, sparking riots and unrest in some penitentiaries. Now, there’s probably no other group in America that is more anxious to see the Delta variant spark another wave of official paranoia. Since they were freed by a provision of the Cares Act, the second stimulus package passed by President Trump and Congress last spring, the DoJ’s official interpretation of the law will eventually determine when (or if) they’re returned to prison to finish out their sentences.According to the guidance left in place by the Trump Administration – guidance that still stands – many of the inmates will return to prison when the pandemic is declared officially over.In a story about the dilemma facing the freed prisoners, Bloomberg cited as an example a former FBI agent serving a 15-year sentence after being convicted on bribery charges. The cafeteria at the federal prison camp in Fairton, N.J., is rarely the site of much celebration. But one afternoon in spring 2020, the room was buzzing. A provision of the pandemic-relief package passed by Congress had given some of the inmates the chance to leave prison early and serve time under home confinement.With dozens of prisoners gathered in the cafeteria, a Bureau of Prisons official read aloud a list of inmates who’d qualified for the new program. The names were greeted with high-fives and cheering. Among them was Robert Lustyik, an ex-F.B.I. agent who was about halfway through a 15-year sentence for bribery. “It was a feeling as if I had won the Heisman Trophy,” Lustyik says.A few weeks later, Lustyik, 59, moved back in with his wife and two children in Sleepy Hollow, N.Y., next door to the cemetery where Washington Irving is buried. Over the past year, he’s started a personal-training business out of his garage and complied with all the rules of home confinement, wearing an ankle bracelet and checking in with prison officials every day.But as the pandemic approaches an end, the clock is ticking for Lustyik and thousands of other federal prisoners released under the Cares Act.

Covid-19 Vaccination Update; Vaccinations In The Have Practically Come To A Standstill — July 7, 2021 – This is the reason the White House is considering draconian measures to get folks vaccinated: vaccinations nationwide have practically come to a halt.CDC data here. These are the most recent statistics.Over the July 4th weekend, the CDC did not report on a daily basis. The CDC reported it had distributed 383,068,740 doses as of July 4, 2021, Sunday’s report.Today, the CDC reported it has distributed 383,068,740 doses of July 7, 2021, today’s (Wednesday’s) report.In other words, the CDC distributed no additional vaccine between after July 4, 2021, through today. None. Nada. Zip. The CDC distributes vaccine based on how much state health departments order. In other words, the state health departments have not ordered any vaccine doses since July 4, 2021. The day prior, only 1,180 doses.Because the CDC did not post data every day for the past few days, one had to average the number of doses given the last few days. On average, only 350,000 vaccinations have been given each of the three past days. It’s very likely the majority of those vaccinations were the second of two doses, suggesting that very few “new” folks are getting their vaccinations.

Banking regulators expected to advance Biden agenda despite ‘acting’ tag – The Supreme Court’s decision last month allowing President Joe Biden to fire the Trump-appointed head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency not only resets the policy trajectory of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s regulator. It also meant yet another agency without a Senate-confirmed leader.Three financial services regulators are now led by an “acting” appointee. After Biden ousted FHFA Director Mark Calabria, senior agency official Sandra Thompson was quickly named as the interim director. She joined Dave Uejio, acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu. Without permanent heads in place, long-term policy goals such as reforming the Community Reinvestment Act and charting a future for Fannie and Freddie could be slowed, some observers said. But analysts say that the acting leaders are likely taking their cues from officials within the White House and the Treasury Department, giving the administration greater power to set policy.

Wall Street rise continues amid warnings of instability – When the US jobs figures for June were issued on Friday, Wall Street’s S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes both climbed to new record highs, because the jobs data were regarded as a “Goldilocks” moment – neither too hot, nor too cold. Coming in at 850,000, the jobs growth number – beating economists’ estimates of 720,000 and well above the figure of 583,000 for May – was regarded as a sign of recovery for the US economy, but not enough to push the Federal Reserve towards tightening its monetary policy, as the data showed there were still 9 million people unemployed, compared with 5.7 million in February 2020, before the pandemic hit. As one analyst told the Financial Times, the jobs figures “couldn’t have delivered better news for Wall Street. Enough new jobs to confirm the economy is on a roll, [but] enough jobless to give the Fed’s current strategy a warm hug.” Another part of the good news for Wall Street was that, despite evidence of labour shortages in parts of the US economy, and the payment of higher wages, the rise in average hourly earnings for the month was only 0.3 percent, down from the increases in April and May. The significance of the wages, jobs growth and overall employment data for Wall Street is not so much what they signify in and of themselves – though that is factor – but their implications for the policies of the Fed. Since the Fed’s massive intervention in March 2020, when it stepped in to halt a meltdown of the financial system with the injection of around $4 trillion, Wall Street has become ever more dependent on the flow of ultra-cheap money from the central bank. This inflow is continuing at the rate of $120 billion a month – more than $1.4 trillion a year – through the purchase of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, and the financial markets are fearful that even a slight lessening of this support could have major effects. Consequently, some analysts are issuing warnings that the present situation, in which markets continue to rise, based on continued economic growth, combined with monetary support from the Fed, is inherently unstable. In a comment published in the Financial Times last week, Mohamed El-Erian noted that, as recorded by a recent Bank of America survey, markets were currently dominated by three core hypotheses: durable high economic growth; transitory inflation and “ever-friendly central banks.” El-Erian wrote that while he did not have a serious quarrel with the higher growth scenario, he did “worry a great deal about the widespread conviction that the current rise in inflation will be transitory.”

Where consumers got pandemic relief, complaints to CFPB fell – New data from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau suggests that goverment efforts to ease households’ financial strains during the pandemic have reduced the number of complaints filed with the agency. The CFPB issued a 17-page bulletin Thursday analyzing consumer complaints related largely to evictions and federal student loans. Consumer complaints in those areas generally fell between the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, prior to the enactment of relief measures, and May 2021. Still, acting CFPB Director Dave Uejio has called out financial firms collectively for their slow response to consumer complaints. In a statement Thursday, he warned companies not to let poor customer service undermine pandemic relief measures.

MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.87%” – Note: This is as of June 27th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.87%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 3.91% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.87% as of June 27, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.9 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 1.99%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 5.10%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 5 basis points to 7.92%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 3 basis points to 4.00%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers declined 3 basis points to 4.11%.”For the first time since last March, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance dropped below 2 percent. The share in every investor type and almost every loan category dropped as well, bringing the number of homeowners in forbearance below 2 million,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The rate of forbearance exits and new forbearance requests remained at low levels, but we expect the pace of exits to increase with reporting next week for the beginning of July.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then. The MBA notes: “Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained the same relative to the prior week at 0.04%”. Note: Deferral plans are very popular. Basically when the homeowner exits forbearance, they just go back to making their regular monthly payments, they are not charged interest on the missed payments, and the unpaid balanced is deferred until the end of the mortgage.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Sharply – Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of July 6th. From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Significant Improvement in Active Forbearances: In our last post, we mentioned that last week’s minor reduction in forbearance plans had “set us up nicely for what could be a larger improvement next week as some 218,000 plans were still scheduled for review by Wednesday, June 30.” Well, that larger improvement arrived this week. Since last Tuesday, the overall number of active plans has dropped by 189,000, pushing the population of homeowners in forbearance down below 2 million for the first time early in April of last year.The decline, as mentioned above, was driven by the large volume of early entrants reaching their 15-month quarterly review, and significant declines were seen across all investor classes. Loans held in bank portfolios and private label securities led the way with a 78,000 reduction in plans, while FHA/VA and GSE forbearance volumes dropped by 67,000 and 44,000 respectively. All in all, that puts us down 254,000 (-12%) from the same time last month.Nearly two thirds of the more than 325,000 plans reviewed for extension or removal over the prior week resulted in exits. That’s the highest weekly exit rate in more than six months and the highest weekly removal volume since the first wave of plans went through their 12-month reviews a few months ago.Forbearance plan starts also continue to fall, with both new and repeat starts down this week for a total of fewer than 26,000, a new pandemic-era low.As of July 6, 1.86 million (3.5% of) homeowners remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans including 2.2% of GSE, 6.8% of FHA/VA and 4.6% of Portfolio/PLS loans. Another 400,000 plans are scheduled to be reviewed for extension/removal over the next 30 days.

Buyers’ Strike? Mortgage Applications Drop 8% Below 2019, as Home Buyers Get Second Thoughts about “Raging Mania” — The evidence has been piling up for months in bits and pieces: While investors still have the hots for this housing market, potential buyers that need a mortgage and those who want to live in the home they’re thinking of buying are getting second thoughts, as evidenced by sharply dropping sales of existing homes and new houses even as inventories for sale have now risen for the third months in a row and new listings are coming out of the woodwork.So here’s the latest piece of evidence: Demand from buyers who need a mortgage to fund the purchase of a home has been declining for months and in the week ended July 2 fell further and is now down 14% from the same week in 2020 and down 8% from the same week in 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association this morning. Mortgage applications are now at the low end of the range in 2019. The entire Pandemic boom has now been worked off, plus some (data via Investing.com): Mortgage applications to refinance mortgages in the week through July 2 fell to the lowest level since February 2020, having now also worked off the entire Pandemic spike, despite mortgage rates that are much lower than they were a year ago. Refi mortgages go through boom-and-bust cycles based on mortgage interest rates, with lower-than-before mortgage rates triggering a refi boom, and with higher-than-before mortgage rates putting a damper on refis.So refi applications in the week through July 2 remained 55% higher than the same week in 2019, when mortgage rates were a full percentage point higher than today; and refi applications were over twice the very low levels of 2018 when mortgage rates were grinding their way to 5%: Can you imagine what this immensely overpriced housing market would look like with mortgage rates at 5% – meaning barely at the rate of CPI inflation? Me neither. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages with conforming balances and a 20%-down-payment was 3.15% in the week ended July 2, according to the MBA today. The rate is down about 20 basis points since the recent high in late March and has remained in the same narrow range since late April:It is interesting that mortgage rates have dropped 20 basis points from their recent high in late March, while the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped 40 basis points over the same period, widening the spread between them.There is now consistent taper-talk coming from the Fed, including ideas about tapering its purchases of MBS sooner or faster than tapering its purchases of Treasury securities. Several Fed governors have now publicly expressed concern over the housing bubble, over investors’ involvement in the housing bubble, and over the Fed’s providing fuel for the housing bubble.The first effects of this Fed talk concerning tapering purchases of MBS may already be showing up in the widening spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates – that’s maybe what we’re looking at here.

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased Slightly YoY in Early July – From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 76.5 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by July 6 in its survey of 11.7 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 0.9 percentage point decrease from the share who paid rent through July 6, 2020 and compares to 79.7 percent that had been paid by July 6, 2019. This data encompasses a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month compared to 2019 and to the first COVID year. Although payments are down from 2019, rent payments are mostly unchanged from last year. This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties. The second graph shows full month payments through June compared to the same month the prior year.For June, rent payments were down compared to June 2019 and 2020. CR Note: There are some timing issues month to month.

CoreLogic: House Prices up 15.4% Year-over-year in May — The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Torrid Demand and Scarce Inventory Fuels Double-Digit Home Price Growth in May, CoreLogic Reports: CoreLogic … released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for May 2021. Converging pressures of severe inventory shortages and sustained demand pushed home prices to record highs in May, with the year-over-year increase in home prices at its highest level since 2005. While many millennials and Gen Z home buyers continue to move into the hot market thanks to low borrowing rates, high prices are likely deterring increasing numbers of prospective buyers – especially first-time and low-income families. Currently, 82% of consumers note housing affordability as a key problem, according to a recent CoreLogic survey. Additionally, 33% of respondents noted they would wait to buy or not buy at all rather than make sacrifices on their purchase. “First-time buyers are hitting a wall in many places around the country as the pace of home price rises outpace the benefits of lower borrowing costs. Younger and first-time buyers, including younger millennials, are faced with the challenge of having sufficient savings for a down payment, closing costs and cash reserves,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As we look to the balance of 2021, we expect price rises to continue which could very well push prospective buyers out of the market in many areas and slow home price growth over the next year.” “There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent. However, demand and supply imbalances – fueled by a drop in mortgage rates to less than one-half what they were in 2005 and a scarcity of for-sale homes – has fed the latest run up in sales prices.” … Nationally, home prices increased 15.4% in May 2021, compared with May 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 2.3% compared to April 2021. At the state level, Idaho and Arizona continued to have the strongest price growth at 30.3% and 23.4%, respectively. Utah also had a 20.4% year-over-year increase as home buyers seek out more affordable locations with lower population density and attractive outdoor amenities.

Homebuilder Comments in June: “It’s not fun to be a builder anymore.”– Some twitter comments from Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting: Analyzing June new home sales & pricing figures from our monthly builder survey. As one builder noted: “It’s not fun to be a builder anymore.” Lumber relief is nice but pick your poison on other issues. Market commentary from across the country to follow..

#Richmond builder: “It’s not fun to be a builder anymore. Cost pressure is killing us. Not only will builders like myself who take 12-24 months to build a house lose margin from increases, but the affordability is becoming a major issue.”

#Atlanta builder: “Costs have driven up prices & we’re no longer preselling. We will not sell a home until frame stage, so our sales numbers are off for June while awaiting framing stage.”

#WestPalmBeach builder: “Cost increases are still coming in daily. Materials continue to be delayed coming on site. Cycle times are increasing as much as 50%. Windows & trusses remain the biggest issue.”

#Chicago builder: “Haven’t bid a new project this year as cost increases are too great to be competitive in the infill spec market. Doing remodeling work until things settle down.”

#Indianapolis builder: “Major concern is ability to develop enough lots to supply the market. Pipe shortage & labor shortages by development contractors are creating a bottleneck.”

#Charlotte builder: “We would not let our sales team sell during the month of June. We needed to take a “pause” from mid-May to the end of June to let our design and construction teams get caught up.”

#Wilmington builder: “Sales slow as we are not offering product for sale until we have our costs set. Delivery times for trusses are now 15 weeks. Drop in lumber prices could be partially due to truss availability. Builders can’t purchase lumber until trusses delivered.”

#Knoxville builder: “Only reason we have such a slow sales rate in June is we have nothing to sell. We are no longer listing any new starts for sale until drywall is in.”

#Nashville builder: “Lumber supply including Truss joists, I-joists, glue lam beams, & oriented strand board are restricting starts & sales.”

#Portland builder: “Lumber theft is a big deal. Thieves are now stealing staged material on 2nd floors of homes under construction.”

#Bend builder: “Sherwin Williams told us they are out of exterior base paint until later in July. Appliances must be ordered 6-9 months in advance. Seeing signs of price ceiling, namely upper end of market.”

#Dallas builder: “Hard to get lumber, windows, air conditioning coils, etc. Air conditioning coils are in short supply and many are backordered, causing delays in getting inspections.”

#FortWorth builder: “Experiencing windows, brick, & now paint shortages. Some prospective buyers have put off purchasing to see if prices will come down.”

#Houston builder: “We’ve seen roughly $8-10K on average of cost increases each month for the past 4-5 months. Lumber has been the key cost driver, but plumbing, electrical, insulation, & virtually every other component has also increased much faster than historical levels.”

#Denver builder: “While lumber is beginning to come down, we anticipate a number of increases in other product categories. Starts exceed sales because we’re waiting to release homes until we have at least ordered lumber & know the cost.”

#SaltLakeCity builder: “Our cameras see theft almost every other night. Getting price increase letters at least weekly. Everyone is taking advantage of every crisis they can. Plumbing supplier said COVID has caused a 75% decrease in production because of being short staffed.”

#Phoenix builder: “Appliance back orders through General Electric are still a major issue at closings. Cost of plywood still out of control. Shortage of labor, & especially qualified workers is getting worse. HVAC is the farthest behind labor & material trade.”

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate “Loses Steam In June” – From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Loses Steam In June: Following six months of consecutive gains, the Dodge Momentum Index fell to 165.8(2000=100) in June, down 5% from the revised May reading of 175.1. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.The decline in June was the result of losses in both institutional planning, which fell 7%, and commercial planning, which lost 4%. Uncertain demand for some building types (such as retail and hotels), higher material prices, and continued labor shortages are weighing down new project planning. Even with June’s decline, however, the Momentum Index remains near a 13-year high and well above last year. Compared to a year earlier, both commercial and institutional planning were significantly higher than in June 2020 (39% and 46% respectively). Overall, the Momentum Index was 41% higher.This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 165.8 in June, down from 175.1 in May.According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”. This index suggests a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a pickup towards the end of the year, and growth in 2022 (even with the decline in the June index).

AAR: June Rail Carloads down, Intermodal Up Compared to 2019 – From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators: U.S. rail volumes in June 2021 and Q2 2021 were consistent with an economy that’s growing but has more growing to do. Total U.S. carloads in June 2021 and Q2 2021 were up 19.1% and 23.8%, respectively, over the same periods in 2020 as easy comps led to big year-over-year percentage gains. That said, total carloads in Q2 2021 were the most for any quarter since Q4 2019….On the intermodal side, U.S. originations in Q2 2021 were the most ever for a quarter, and intermodal volume in the first six months of 2021 were the most ever for the first six months of a year.This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2019, 2020 and 2021:Total originated carloads were 1.18 million in June 2021, up 19.1% (188,164 carloads) over June 2020 and down 5.5% from June 2019….Carloads excluding coal were up 14.1% in June 2021 over June 2020 and down 4.3% from June 2019.The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2019, 2020 and 2021: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S. intermodal originations, which are not included in carloads, rose 10.9% in June 2021 over June 2020, their 11th straight year-over-year gain. In June, intermodal averaged 277,349 containers and trailers per week, the second most for June on record (behind June 2018).

The pandemic has exposed the problems with America’s paper-thin supply chains. Industries have to change if the US wants to avoid another catastrophe. In the last several weeks, Toyota and several other carmakers have announced they will be retreating from “just-in-time” inventory, a production method that minimizes inventory levels across the supply chain and has largely contributed to the disruptions we have felt in almost every corner of our lives since the pandemic began. Governments have also announced they are intervening – from the Biden-Harris administration’s formation of the Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force, to the EU working to addresssemiconductor chip supply bottlenecks. The automotive industry – known for pioneering just-in-time production – may be the first to ditch the practice in favor of stockpiling critical parts like lithium-ion batteries and semiconductor chips, but it won’t be the last. The end of using just-in-time inventory as a standard business practice is here, and the automotive industry is simply the canary in the coal mine. America’s businesses have relied on lean supply chains for decades, but the last year has exposed problems with the practice. If the US wants to avoid another crunch, America’s businesses must change their ways.Over the last 25 years, since Toyota first pioneered the practice, just-in-time has become the predominant inventory method for almost every business spanning nearly all industries – from supermarkets to chip manufacturing to software development. Supply chains across industries have operated as lean as possible when it comes to managing people, inventory, and workflow. The original idea behind just-in-time, however, wasn’t what we are seeing today – rather, it was an essential pillar of the auto industry’s business model. Cost, the main dimension of competition during the beginning of the previous century, was no longer the primary focus; instead, speed and variety were. Wealthier customers in wealthier nations wanted something different: better quality, more variety, and faster time to market. The just-in-time concept was built precisely for that. The idea: carry the right amount of inventory based on the disruption and risk you’re facing. It wasn’t long, however, before other industries followed suit – from consumer electronics to food and beverage to software – all using different incarnations of just-in-time, which quickly pushed it to become the predominant paradigm for business operations. The approach quickly evolved into a model in which businesses reduced their inventory to as little as possible, often neglecting to protect against possible risks. America’s businesses were able to operate that way successfully for a long time, until COVID-19 came along and flipped the entire concept on its head via significant supply and demand shocks.

ISM Services Index Decreased to 60.1% in June — The June ISM Services index was at 60.1%, up from 64.0% last month. The employment index decreased to 49.3%, from 55.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2021 Services ISM Report On Business “The Services PMI registered 60.1 percent, which is 3.9 percentage points lower than May’s all-time high reading of 64 percent. The June reading indicates the 13th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 137 months. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 68.5 percent, down 1.9 percentage points from May’s reading of 70.4 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM Report On Business index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Prices Index registered 79.5 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than the May reading of 80.6 percent, indicating that prices increased in June, and at a slightly slower rate. “According to the Services PMI, 16 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 13th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. The rate of expansion in the services sector remains strong, despite the slight pullback in the rate of growth from the previous month’s all-time high. Challenges with materials shortages, inflation, logistics and employment resources continue to be an impediment to business conditions,” says Nieves. The employment index decreased to 49.3%, from 55.3% in May.

June Markit Services PMI: “Strong business activity growth rounds off best quarter in PMI survey history” – The June US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index conducted by Markit came in at 64.6 percent, down 5.8 from the final May estimate of 70.4.Here is the opening from the latest press release:Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:”June saw another month of impressive output growth across the manufacturing and services sectors of the US economy, rounding off the strongest quarterly expansion since data were first available in 2009.”The rate of growth cooled compared to May’s record high, however, adding to signs that the economy’s recovery bounce peaked in the second quarter.”Some of the easing in the rate of expansion reflects payback after especially strong expansions in prior months as the economy opened up from pandemic-related restrictions, especially in consumer-facing companies. However, many firms reported that business activity had been constrained either by shortages of supplies or difficulties filling vacancies. Backlogs of uncompleted orders are consequently rising at a rate unprecedented in the survey’s history, underscoring how demand is outstripping supply of both goods and services.”These capacity constraints are not only stifling growth, but also driving prices sharply higher. June saw the second-steepest rise in average prices charged for goods and services in the survey’s 12-year history, though some encouragement can be gleaned from the rate of inflation easing in the service sector compared to May.” [Press Release]Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012. Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management, which they refer to as “Non-Manufacturing” (see our full article on this series here). Over its history, the ISM metric has been significantly the more volatile of the two.

Employment: June Diffusion Indexes –The employment diffusion indexes are useful in gauging how widespread job gains are in a given month. The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 66.1 in June, up from 63.0 in May. For manufacturing, the diffusion index was at 62.0, down from 63.3 in May. Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains or losses are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS. From the BLS: Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.Both indexes declined sharply in March 2020, and collapsed to new record lows in April 2020 due to the impact from COVID-19. Then the indexes increased as the economy bounced back. Both indexes were solid in June, indicating job growth was widespread across industries.

BLS: Job Openings “Little Changed” at 9.2 Million in May – From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings was little changed at 9.2 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 5.9 million. Total separations decreased to 5.3 million. Within separations, the quits rate decreased to 2.5 percent. The layoffs and discharges rate, while little changed over the month, hit a series low of 0.9 percent. The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for May, the most recent employment report was for June. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs – when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings increased in May to 9.209 million from 9.193 million in April. This is a new record high for this series.The number of job openings (yellow) were up 69% year-over-year. Quits were up 63% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for “quits”).

May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows job openings held steady and quits dropped –Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her initial insights on today’s release of the Jobs and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May. Read the full Twitter thread here.

• • The layoffs rate continued to trend downwards while the hires rate softened and the quits rate fell. It’s clear the monthly data exhibits some volatility, but the labor market over the last few months continues to move in the right direction.

    2/n pic.twitter.com/NBeut1IAIp – Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 7, 2021

  • Using the last three months of data by sector to smooth data volatility, it’s clear that there are still many sectors with far more unemployment workers than job openings. To be clear, these comparisons only include those who are in the official measure of unemployment.

    4/n pic.twitter.com/yHZfUaH83f – Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 7, 2021

  • Today’s #JOLTS data are for May. What we know from the latest jobs report is that the labor market continued to pick up steam in June. Subsequent reports will show that this less optimistic report was a temporary blip on the way to a stronger economy.https://t.co/2bKFqKGWDA

    6/n – Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 7, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 373,000 – The DOL reported: In the week ending July 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 373,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 7,000 from 364,000 to 371,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,500, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,000 from 392,750 to 394,750. This does not include the 99,001 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 114,186 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 392,750.The previous week was revised up.Regular state continued claims decreased to 3,339,000 (SA) from 3,484,000 (SA) the previous week.Note: There are an additional 5,824,831 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,935,630 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 4,908,107 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,261,991.Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

Los Angeles teachers union reaches agreement to fully reopen schools The United Teachers Los Angeles (UTLA), which nominally represents more than 30,000 teachers in the country’s second largest school district, has approved a side letter tentative agreement (TA) with the district for the summer session and upcoming school year. Under the terms of the agreement, the district’s 1,000 schools, serving over 600,000 students, opened on June 23 for daily in-person instruction with only three-foot distancing between desks. Without any discussion, the school board approved the agreement only one day before schools reopened. A dangerous precedent has been set by the UTLA which will be followed by districts throughout the West Coast. The reckless school reopening agreement has been finalized as Los Angeles County, like many other parts of the US, experiences another surge of COVID-19 cases as the Delta variant has begun to take hold. In fact, the county reported 506 new infections last Thursday, its largest daily increase in coronavirus cases since mid-April. Furthermore, children under 12 years old – the majority of students returning to classrooms – are not yet eligible for the vaccine and remain unprotected from the virus. Meanwhile, the number of Delta variant cases sequenced in county labs has doubled, reaching a total of 245 last week, or roughly 44 percent of all cases sequenced, according to LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer. “Given that 4 million residents in LA County are not yet vaccinated, the risk of increased spread is very real,” Ferrer said. While the union is boasting that 94 percent of teachers approved the TA, the reality is that only 12,193 out of over 30,000 classroom teachers, counselors, nurses, psychologists, social workers and librarians in district and charter schools actually voted; 18,000 abstained from the vote. “With the approval of this agreement, schools across Los Angeles will have critical COVID safety protocols in place when we welcome students back to the joys of full-time in-person learning,” said UTLA President Cecily Myart-Cruz. Superintendent Austin Beutner, who retired immediately after the agreement was reached, insisted that the district implemented “the highest set of safety standards of any school district in the nation” to protect against COVID-19 as campuses welcomed back students this spring, pointing to upgraded air filtration systems, sanitation efforts and supplies of protective equipment.

Some students thrived learning from home – they deserve a permanent model -In policymakers’ quest to successfully reopen schools, there is a significant challenge we must meet head on to ensure the most equitable learning environment for America’s youth: How we build an inclusive learning environment for students who have thrived during remote learning as well as for those who need the more traditional in-school model to excel academically. Instruction must be the cornerstone of our plan for reopening, but we cannot make it one-size-fits-all. Without the development of an inclusive learning model, we risk losing the innovations and technological advances that have occurred during school closures as well as an opportunity to close equity gaps for our most vulnerable students. The pandemic has highlighted just how many unique factors go into a student’s ability to successfully learn. For every student who excels in the bustling environment of a classroom, there is another who needs a quiet and solitary space free of distractions to complete their work to the best of their ability. For every student who craves the social environment of school, there is another who is thankful for a reprieve from bullying and dreads the thought of returning in person. For every student who is distracted or unmotivated by online learning tools, there is another whoprefers the flexibility of working at their own pace. Many students with disabilities have had limited access to their Individual Education Plans (IEPs) during the pandemic, but while they’ve been at home have not been in such a sensory charged environment, which overall has been a benefit. We need to consider how to meet all of these unique needs in reopening. The pandemic has illuminated something most of us in education already knew – that some children don’t thrive in a traditional school environment. While a large percentage of students need in-person instruction and the socialization that comes from that “normal,” we cannot lose sight of the fact that many children have excelled in remote learning. As we continue to think about what school should look like post-pandemic, let’s be sure we take into account the unique needs of every student to ensure a quality, equitable and ideal education for each of our children.

Homeschool Applications Double In California – The number of home school applications submitted to the California Department of Education (DOE) soared during the 2020-2021 school year, state data indicates. There were 34,715 private school affidavits (PSAs) for five children or less submitted during the most recent curricular year. In California, homeschools are recognized as private schools, and homeschooling families are required to submit an affidavit to the DOE annually.The most recent homeschool figures are more than twice as high as they were during the 2018-2019 school year, when 14,548 PSAs were filed. There were 22,433 PSAs filed during the 2019-2020 school year. “People are just really dissatisfied with the performance of the regular public schools during the COVID crisis,” Lance Izumi, a senior director of the Center for Education at the Pacific Research Institute and author of the upcoming book on homeschooling, “Voices from Home,” told The Epoch Times. Izumi said California’s increase in homeschooling is part of a nationwide trend.Between spring and fall of 2020, the percentage of homeschoolers nationwide more than doubled, jumping from 5.4 percent to 11.1 percent in less than four months.The numbers are classified as true homeschooling and do not include distance learning at a public or private school.The largest increase in homeschoolers was especially notable among minority groups, including black and Hispanic learners.In African American households, the proportion of homeschooling quintupled from 3.3 percent in spring 2020, to 16.1 percent in fall 2020.In Hispanic households, the number of households that opted for homeschooling doubled in the same time, from 6.2 percent to 12.1 percent.

CDC Releases New Mask Guidance For K-12 Schools, Says Vaccinations Should Be Tracked -After telling the public that there’s no reason yet to believe they will need COVID “booster shots”, the CDC released more updated guidance on Friday morning. This time, the updated guidance focused on precautions that K-12 public schools should take during the upcoming 2021-2022 school year.Most importantly, the guidance included a directive that schools should remain open regardless – even in the event of an outbreak – regardless of whether all COVID-prevention strategies can be implemented. The new federal guidelines aren’t mandatory, but they’re supposed to give public school administrators a framework to help navigate the complexities of teaching during the COVID era.The updated guidance, which can be read in full here, advised that in-person education is a “priority”. Importantly, schools will be asked to keep track of which students and staff have been “fully vaccinated”.First, the most important thing schools can do is encourage as many students and staff to get vaccinated as possible. “Achieving high levels of COVID-19 vaccination among eligible students as well as teachers, staff, and household members is one of the most critical strategies to help schools safely resume full operations,” the CDC stated.Since not all students will be vaccinated by the conclusion of the upcoming school year, authorities should balance promoting vaccination with modified social distancing strategies. For example, all students should maintain at least 3 feet of physical distance inside classrooms. If this isn’t possible, then schools should resort to “layered” strategies including frequent testing, ventilation, handqashing and “respiratory etiquette”.School administrators should keep track of levels of COVID prevalence within the surrounding community.Students and teachers won’t be asked to wear masks outside, but when levels of transmission in the surrounding community are high, even the vaccinated may be asked to mask up indoors. Additionally, the CDC recommends that bus drivers and their passengers wear masks during the ride to and from school, regardless of whether they’re vaccinated or not.For staff and students who aren’t vaccinated, the guidance recommends testing them at least once per week, or possibly more if transmission rates in the community rise. For students involved in sports, they may be asked to be tested twice per week.

Study: Nearly 10 percent of high school students experienced homelessness in Spring 2019 — A new report finds that 509,025 (9.17%) public high school students in 24 states experienced homelessness in spring 2019 — three times the number recognized by the states’ education agencies. This under-recognition creates gaps in funding and services needed by this vulnerable population.Researchers from Nemours Children’s Health and the University of Pennsylvania analyzed data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for public schools across 24 states and 12 school districts. During spring 2019, more than 9% of public high school students experienced homelessness during a 30-day period in the 24 states. The rate was even higher in the 12 school districts, analyzed separately, where nearly 14% of students reported homelessness.The report’s authors believe the discrepancy between the CDC’s data, collected through the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS), and the state and local school agency homelessness estimates is likely due to the more comprehensive nature and complex sampling design of the YRBSS. The YRBSS is an anonymous set of surveys conducted in public high schools every two years. The report analyzed data from all states and school districts that opted to ask about student housing and homelessness for the 2019 YRBSS.Homelessness was more likely among students who were male, LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender), Black/African American, Hispanic/Latinx, or Native American/Hawaiian. Students who experienced homelessness reported higher rates of sexual victimization, physical victimization, and having been bullied. Even when controlling for other risk factors, students who experienced homelessness reported higher rates of severe suicidality, hard drug use, alcohol abuse, risky sexual behavior, and poor grades.”Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw high rates of homelessness in public high school students and strong links between homelessness and other harmful experiences,”

Far More Adults Don’t Want Children Than Previously Thought – – Fertility rates in the United States have plunged to record lows, and this could be related to the fact that more people are choosing not to have children. But just how many “child-free” adults there are has been tricky for researchers to pin down.National fertility data provided by the U.S. Census and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lump together all adults who aren’t parents, making it difficult to understand how many people identify as child-free. As social scientists, we think it’s important to distinguish child-free individuals from those who are childless or not yet parents. People who are child-free make the conscious decision not to have kids. They’re distinct from childless individuals – adults who want children but can’t have them – and from people who plan to have children in the future. In a recent study of 1,000 people, we found that over 1 in 4 Michigan adults did not want biological or adopted children and were, therefore, child-free. This number was much higher than those reported in the few past national studies that have attempted to identify child-free people,which placed the percentage between 2% and 9%. Although we can’t be sure why we identified more child-free people in our study, we suspect it may have something to do with how we determined who was child-free. Past studies that attempted to estimate the prevalence of child-free individuals often focused only on women and have used criteria based on fertility. These studies left out men, older adults and biologically infertile people who nonetheless didn’t want children. In our study, we used a more inclusive approach. We looked at both women and men, asking yes-no questions that allowed us to determine who was child-free based on the desire to have children, rather than fertility: In addition to examining how many child-free people there are, we also examined whether child-free people differed from parents, not-yet-parents and childless individuals in life satisfaction, personality or political views.We found that child-free people were just as satisfied with their lives as others, and there were few personality differences. However, child-free people were more liberal than parents. Although child-free people were pretty similar to everyone else, we did find that parents were less warm toward child-free people. This finding suggests that child-free individuals may be stigmatized in the United States.

While Fed Mulls Tapering, China Prepares To Cut Rates As Economy Stalls — With the Fed debating whether to keep talking about tapering or finally do something about it – even if that something means injecting another trillion of liquidity into the economy by the end of 2022 while nipping and tucking $10 billion per month here and there – China is starting to move in the other direction. With China’s economy rapidly cooling, as the latest sharp drop the Caixin Services PMI demonstrated, after badly missing consensus expectations and poised on the edge of contraction… … a move which was predicted here months ago when we discussed the collapse in China’s all important credit impulse… … it is not just traders that are speculating that China’s next move may be a rate cut – Beijing itself is starting to make loud noises. Pouring gasoline into the debate whether Chinese and U.S. monetary policy will diverge further, overnight a former central bank official said that China should guide market interest rates lower to support economic growth and ease funding pressure on local governments. Reasonable rate cuts also would help create space for the PBOC to tighten policy if needed in the future, in order to cope with an expected weakening in the yuan, Sheng Songcheng, former head of statistics at the PBOC, said in a column published late on Tuesday on Sina Finance, a financial news outlet according to Reuters. “It’s necessary to keep liquidity reasonable and sufficient, and guide the rational and moderate decrease of market interest rates,” Sheng said, adding that economic growth is likely to slow to 5-6% in the second half of the year, from an expected pace of around 8% in April-June.

China Cuts Reserve Ratio By 0.5% Unleashing 1 Trillion Yuan In Liquidity To Boost Economy – Just two days after we said that “China Prepares To Cut Rates As Economy Stalls“, this morning China did just that when the PBOC announced it is cutting the Required Reserve Ratio by 0.5% for most banks, a move that will unleash about 1 trillion yuan ($154BN) of long-term liquidity into the economy and will be effective July 15.The announcement reduces the amount of cash most banks must hold in reserve in order to boost lending to the economy as growth has sharply waned, and is expected to prop up China’s slowing economy, which as noted earlier this week saw its Caixin Service PMI drop to the lowest level since the covid crisis, badly missing expectations.The last time the bank cut the main ratios was during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, when it was trying to boost the economy after the Covid-19 outbreak which started in a Wuhan lab shut down the economy.The RRR cut was signaled earlier this week, when as we reported on Wednesday, China’s State Council hinted the central bank would make more liquidity available to banks so they could lend to smaller firms hurt by rising costs. But the rushed timing and magnitude of the move, coming a week before second-quarter growth data, suggests mounting concerns about the economy’s outlook, economists said.”The PBOC came in broader and sooner than expected, highlighting the policy urgency to support the China economy,” said Mizuho FX strategist Ken Cheung. “Such firm easing measures could further fuel concern over China’s growth outlook in the second half as well as the upcoming second-quarter GDP figures in the coming week.” The rate cut comes at a time when Beijing is again posturing with its noble but futile intentions to delever the economy: China has been wary of overstimulating the economy, and the central bank said in a statement that the cut doesn’t mean there’s been a change to the “prudent monetary policy.”

White flags fly in Malaysia as hunger spreads during lockdown – Signs of economic distress have begun appearing in neighborhoods across Kuala Lumpur and other Malaysian cities: white flags outside people’s houses, indicating that they need food or other assistance. The flags – sometimes little more than T-shirts or strips of cloth – are a cry for help from mostly low-income families who are financially affected by the another long coronavirus lockdown. The campaign, shared on social media as #benderaputih (“white flag”), is a way for families to appeal for food, work or other essentials as many businesses remain closed and joblessness rises. Thousands of people have stepped in, including artists and celebrities. A rapper who goes by Altimet pledged to his nearly 400,000 followers on Instagram last week that, every Friday, he would donate food and supplies to houses marked with a white flag. Renyi Chin, a restaurant owner in Kuala Lumpur, the capital, said he had donated $1,000 worth of food and supplies to families in the past week.”This is our fourth lockdown, and many have lost their jobs and means for food,” Mr. Chin said. Many of those afflicted by the latest restrictions are single mothers, older Malaysians and daily wage workers, he added. As coronavirus cases continue to rise in Malaysia, with average daily infections up 19 percent in the last two weeks, according toNew York Times data, the government on Saturday announced a tightening of restrictions in several regions, including Kuala Lumpur and most of Selangor state. The country had 6,539 daily cases last week, and just 8 percent of its population is fully vaccinated, according to Times data. Malaysia’s repeated lockdowns have lowered demand for labor, with the number of registered jobs dropping by 130,000 in just the first quarter of the year, according to government data from theDepartment of Statistics Malaysia. Suicides have risen during the first five months of this year, and the health ministry said that the pandemic is partly to blame. Many in Malaysia say the government has failed to manage the economic impact of the pandemic. Outside some houses, black flags have appeared in a separate campaign calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin.

World Food Prices Drop In June For First Time In Year, Remain Near Decade High – World food prices fell in June for the first in 12 months, offering some relief for consumers and easing inflationary pressures. According to a new Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) report, the FAO Food Price Index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat, and sugar, dropped 2.5% in June, coming off a decade high, but still 33.9% higher than its level in the same month last year. The decline in the index was the first in 12 months.

Delta Could Disrupt Emerging World’s Post-COVID Recovery, Goldman Warns – Now that the Delta variant has revived fears about renewed COVID outbreaks from the US to Europe to Asia, a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs has published its analysis of the risks posed by the mutated strain. The conclusion: since full vaccination remains effective at preventing infections, countries with low vaccination rates are the most vulnerable to another outbreak of the Delta variant. As Goldman pointed out in an earlier note, the Delta variant represents a growing share of new COVID cases. Accordingly, the Goldman team sees the risk of high hospitalizations and fatalities, followed by economy-damaging lockdowns, as rising most rapidly in Russia, South Africa, and Indonesia. However, a more important takeaway involves the difficulty of achieving “COVID zero”, something no country – not even China – has managed to achieve. If nothing else, the rise of the Delta variant likely increases the risk that COVID will become endemic like the flu. Of course, most countries have already come to terms with the fact that “COVID zero” probably isn’t a realistic public health goal. But in Australia, Israel and China, it could complicate authorities efforts to move past the crisis (though Goldman expects a gradual H2 recovery in consumption as infections “stabilize” in Australia and continue to decline in China). The most likely scenario implies a slightly slower global reopening, with the risk highest in countries with low vaccination rates. Still, “our global GDP growth forecasts of 6.6% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022 therefore remain optimistic in absolute terms, although they are now closer to the consensus than at any point since April 2020.”

Spectators will be barred from the Olympics as Japan declares a new state of emergency for Tokyo. – Olympic organizers said on Thursday that they would bar spectators from most events at the Games scheduled to open in two weeks, a decision that followed the declaration of a new state of emergency in Tokyo in response to a sudden spike in coronavirus cases.Officials have long insisted that they can hold the Tokyo Games safely amid a pandemic. Last month, they announced that they would allow domestic spectators at the events despite public fears that the Games could become a petri dish for new variants of the virus.Now, the virus has again wreaked havoc on the planning of Olympic organizers, who gathered in an emergency meeting on Thursday night to decide how to respond to the latest challenge of a pandemic that had already delayed the Games by a year.The announcement came only hours before the Olympic torch was set to begin the last – and long-delayed – leg of its trip through Japan. Officials decided this week that there would be almost no actual running during its two-week perambulation through Tokyo and its suburbs, replacing the marathon with a series of ceremonies that would be closed to the public.Addressing reporters on Thursday night, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga acknowledged the challenge the country faced as the more contagious Delta variant had begun to spread. He warned about the danger of the virus spreading beyond Tokyo as people traveled home for the summer holidays.But at the same time, Mr. Suga pledged to deliver an Olympic Games that would go down in history not as another victim of the pandemic, but as an example of fortitude in the face of adversity. Viewers will be tuning in from around the world, he said, and “I want to transmit to them a message from Tokyo about overcoming hardship with effort and wisdom.”

Sydney Extends Delta-Inspired COVID Lockdown For Another 2 Weeks – Public health authorities in Australia have continued to confirm small numbers of new COVID cases despite Sydney’s latest economy-crushing lockdown. And with the Delta “scariant” helping to keep COVID paranoia at a fever pitch, authorities have decided to extend what was supposed to be a two-week lockdown for another two weeks. Authorities cited the “vulnerability” of Australia’s mostly unvaccinated population as the reason why such draconian measures must be extended, despite pleas from restauranteurs and other small business owners pleading with the government to consider other strategies.Parents are also griping since the extension also means school-age children won’t return to school next week. “The situation we’re in now is largely because we haven’t been able to get the vaccine that we need,” New South Wales state Health Minister Brad Hazzard said. Only 9% of Australian adults are fully vaccinated. State Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the decision to extend the lockdown through July 16 was made on the advice of the government’s advisors. Of 27 new infections attributed to the delta variant reported in latest 24-hour period on Wednesday, only 13 had managed to isolate while infectious, officials said, raising the risk of further spread. The delta variant is considered more contagious than the original coronavirus or other variants.

Housing and accommodation crisis in New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state – Australia is facing an unprecedented social housing crisis as millions of families are being pushed into poverty, due to declining wages and soaring rental and housing costs. The crisis is fuelled by the decades of public housing privatisation by state and federal government, Liberal-National and Labor alike. New South Wales (NSW), Australia’s most populous state, is a microcosm of the disaster. The University of NSW estimates that the shortfall in social housing in the state may be as high as 135,000 units. This figure was outlined in a recent Equity Economics report entitled “Maximising the Returns,” as part of a push by several peak non-government bodies representing the community housing sector. They are seeking to convince the Liberal-National Coalition state government to build 5,000 new social housing units per year for the next 30 years, beginning with the June 2021 – 22 budget. This number would allow Australia to “meet and maintain” the social housing stock, that is the percentage of government houses in the state, at the OECD average of 7.1 percent of total housing. The report notes that decades of underinvestment has caused a precipitous drop in the social housing stock in Australia from 7.1 percent in 1991 to 4.2 percent by 2018. The same period has seen a massive growth in housing stress, which the report states is “due to rising house prices and rents, higher mortgages and a decline in home ownership.” In NSW alone 530,000 households, accounting for 1.4 million people, live in housing stress and are in need of affordable housing options. There are now some 50,000 households on the state’s social housing waiting list, with families forced to wait up to 10 years in some areas. Last month’s state budget, however, did not fund 5,000 new social housing units but a measly 400. This is less than one-twelfth of the amount called for, and almost half the 780 funded in the previous budget. The term “social housing,” moreover, is deliberately misleading. It refers to both government-owned and managed public housing and privately outsourced community housing. Lumping them together serves to conceal the significant transfer of public housing to the private sector, which has increased dramatically over the past decade. According to a January 2021 Productivity Commission report, 17.8 percent of “social housing” across the country was privately run in 2011, climbing to 28.6 percent in 2020. In NSW, the process of privatisation has been even sharper, rising from 19.7 percent in 2011 to 35.4 percent in 2020. The origin of these policies can be found in the Hawke-Keating federal Labor governments, which in 1983 implemented a market-driven model with cash subsidies being given to those on welfare payments if they were unable to find public housing. This directed low-income people away from public and into private housing. Funds for new public housing were also slashed and saw real capital funding fall by 25 percent between 1990 – 91 and 2000 – 01. This led to the ” cannibalising” of public housing via joint venture partnerships with the private sector.

Canada loosening pandemic travel restrictions – Canada began to lift some coronavirus travel restrictions with the U.S on Monday, allowing some Canadians to forego quarantine requirements. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that plans to reopen the Canadian border completely are to be announced in the coming weeks, The Associated Press reported.With the loosened restrictions, Canadian residents who have been fully vaccinated will be able to skip a 14-day quarantine period, and those who take air travel will no longer have to spend three days in a government-approved hotel when reentering the country, according to the AP. Nonessential trips between the U.S. and Canada, including tourism, are expected to remain restricted until at least July 21. “We’re very hopeful that we’re going to see new steps on reopening announced in the coming weeks,” Trudeau said at a news conference. “We’re going to make sure that we’re not seeing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases because nobody wants to go back to further restrictions, after having done so much and sacrificed so much to get to this point.” He also said that lifting some of the coronavirus restrictions on travel marks a “big step toward reopening the border, but that he is hesitant for the country to move too quickly, the AP reported. “Nobody wants us to move too fast and have to reimpose restrictions as case numbers rise like we’re seeing elsewhere in the world, he said. “We need to do this right.”

Luxembourg prime minister hospitalized following positive COVID-19 test – Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel was hospitalized with COVID-19 on Sunday, more than a week after testing positive for coronavirus. The Associated Press reported that Bettel was coughing and had headaches and a fever, but was not experiencing any life-threatening conditions. The prime minister revealed that he tested positive for the virus days after taking part in the two-day European Union Summit in Brussels with 26 other leaders, the AP noted. He had already received his first COVID-19 vaccine dose when he tested positive, and was set to get his second AstraZeneca shot on July 1, according to the news service. Summit organizers, however, reportedly said they were confident that COVID-19 precautions were followed, and no other leaders who attended the summit have tested positive for the virus since the meeting. A Luxembourg government official told the AP that “the problem is that the symptoms have not fully disappeared over the past week.” Bettel has reportedly been working remotely and interacting with others through video conference as much as possible since he began isolating last week. He was reportedly transported to the hospital for 24 hours of testing and medical analysis on Sunday. He remained in the hospital on Monday afternoon, but could be released later in the day. A spokeswoman for the European Commission said Bettel was doing relatively well. “We understand – and we certainly hope – that it’s not serious, and it’s for checks,” European Commission spokeswoman Dana Spinant said, according to the AP.

Spain reinstates nightlife restrictions in regions seeing coronavirus surges – Regions in Spain are reinstating their nightlife restrictions due to a surge in COVID-19 cases, The Associated Press reported on Monday. Fernando Simon, who coordinates Spain’s response to health emergencies, told the newswire officials are worried about infected young people spreading the virus to vulnerable groups of senior citizens. “We are in a complicated situation regarding transmission and we hope that this doesn’t turn into a grave situation at hospitals,” Simon said. COVID-19 infections are spreading among Spanish teenagers due to them going to parties and trips at the end of the school year celebrations, according to the AP. Simon also said the delta variant of the virus isn’t to blame for the new rise in cases, referring to it as ” not yet the main driver.” More than 1,000 infections came from students who recently traveled to the country’s Mallorca island and 700 others have tested positive after a visit to a beach in June, according to the AP. A group of Spanish businesses owners said in a statement that their industry is being used as a “scapegoat” for the country’s urge in cases, the AP reported. Forty percent of Spain’s 47 million population have been fully vaccinated, but only 0.7 percent of people younger than 20 are vaccinated. England’s COVID-19 restrictions lifting in two weeks, Johnson says Lawsuit accuses Hawaii dolphin tour company of violating coronavirus… The country has focused on vaccinating older residents, which leaves the younger generation as the remaining unvaccinated group, the AP noted. “We have to thank the youth for the extra, longer effort that we have demanded from them, as they are only starting to get vaccinated now,” Simon told the AP. The country recently imposed an overnight curfew due to surging COVID-19 cases last October.

Germany lifts pandemic ban on travelers from UK, Portugal -Germany is lifting its coronavirus pandemic ban and loosening restrictions on travelers from the United Kingdom, Portugal and multiple other countries. The new rules announced on Monday allow vaccinated individuals from designated countries – which also include Russia, India and Nepal – to travel to Germany without having to quarantine, Politico reported. Unvaccinated individuals will have to quarantine, but the quarantine no longer has to last two weeks if a person obtains a negative COVID-19 test after entering the country. Individuals from other countries who were not residents of Germany were not allowed to travel there under the previous ban. Germany is lifting the ban despite a spike in cases in some areas around the world, including the U.K., from the delta variant.Multiple European nations have begun to lift some travel restrictions as vaccination rates increase.The Biden administration is also facing pressure to ease its travel restrictions on international travelers as vaccination rates continue to go up.

England expected to lift mask restrictions –A requirement to wear masks in England amid the coronavirus pandemic is expected to become optional, British Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick said Sunday. “It does look as if, thanks to the success of the vaccine program, that we now have the scope to roll back those restrictions and return to a normality as far as possible,” Jenrick told the BBC. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales handle their own coronavirus rules. Jenrick said the public should be aware that cases may continue rising amid the spread of highly contagious variants, but reasoned that “we do now have to move into a different period, where we learn to live with the virus, we take precautions and we as individuals take personal responsibility.” The BBC reported that final COVID-19 restrictions in England will likely be lifted on July 19. Though Jenrick could not definitively confirm masking requirements would disappear, he said “the prime minister is going to make an announcement in the coming days, but it does look as if the data is in the right place.” “We trust the British public to exercise good judgment, people will come to different conclusions, as you say,” he said. “We all need to ensure that we are double vaccinated, and that will be absolutely critical if we want to maintain this momentum, there are still people in those categories one to nine, who haven’t come forward to be vaccinated.” A Scottish government spokesperson said while some restrictions would be lifted in Scotland on Aug. 9, there’s still an expectation for people to wear masks in shops and on public transportation, the BBC reported. Wales is reportedly set to review its restrictions on July 15. According to the U.K. government, 86 percent of eligible Britons have gotten their first dose of the vaccine and nearly 64 percent have gotten both doses.

Johnson announces all restrictions against COVID-19 will end July 19 in the UK “I want to stress from the outset that this pandemic is far from over. As we predicted in the roadmap, we are seeing cases rise. There could be 50,000 cases per day. We are seeing rising hospital admissions and we must reconcile ourselves with more deaths.” With these words Monday evening, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the lifting of all restrictions against COVID-19 in England and declared himself a political criminal. The next morning, newly installed Health Secretary Sajid Javid revealed the full implications of the government’s plans. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the UK was in “unchartered territory” and that daily new cases “could reach as high as 100,000” by August. Javid refused to answer what this is expected to mean for hospitalisations. The new health secretary was recommended to Johnson for the position as a more forceful advocate of ending all restrictions. From July 19, masks will no longer be required in shops, hospitality venues or on public transport as the legal requirement to wear them is withdrawn. No restrictions on social contact will be left in place, as the 1m-plus social distancing rule will also end. All businesses will be allowed to open. Any COVID rules inside hospitality venues will cease and capacity limits will be scrapped. Mass events, such as music festivals, will be authorised and house parties will no longer be illegal. In care homes, where tens of thousands perished as a result of the social murder policy of the government, the limit to five named visitors will be dropped. From August 16, double-vaccinated adults and all under-18s will no longer have to self-isolate if they have been in close contact with a person who has tested positive for COVID-19. Last month, Johnson delayed a final ending of restrictions, due to be carried out on June 14, after a surge in infections propelled by the reopening of much of the economy on May 17. This allowed cases, which had fallen by then to under 2,000 a day, to spread like wildfire as the more transmissible Delta variant became dominant. The situation is much worse now than then. One in 260 people in England currently has coronavirus, according to the Office for National Statistics. Well over 20,000 new infections are being reported daily with cases leaping by 74 percent week on week. Today, 28,773 coronavirus cases were recorded, the highest daily total since the end of January, taking the total in the last seven days to 186,422 – an average per day of 26,631. Despite nearly two-thirds of UK adults having had the required two vaccine doses, 142 deaths have been reported in the last week and there are 2,092 COVID patients in hospital.

The UK Is Running a Dangerous Covid Experiment That Represents a Threat to the Rest of the World -This is near latest data on new Covid cases, comparing the UK and Europe, and using data from the FT:The UK is aberrational: remember the EU is five times the size of the UK in population terms.Throw in the USA, Australia and India for further comparison and the UK experience is even more peculiar: Nothing about the UK experience of the delta variant of Cvid can be considered normal.I accept that it is also true that hospitalisation rates are lower than at the beginning of this year, and so too are death rates (thankfully). But there is no evidence that this does not mean that there is substantial harm from this illness, still. People are seriously ill with it, and significant numbers suffer long Covid effects.Despite this very obvious fact the UK is choosing to be the outlier in its response to Covid now. We are going to abandon all public health precautions, even though the growth in case rates suggests that there may be 70,000 cases a day by July 19. In effect, the UK is choosing to be the Delta variant incubator for the world. And, given that it is still the case that only 50% of the UK population is vaccinated (and many who are now likely need a booster, which is so far unavailable) the likelihood that we are also becoming a new variant incubator is very high indeed. The obvious question to ask is why is this? The arrival of Sajid Javid is the obvious explanation. Like Rishi Sunak, he comes from the far right of Tory politics. Like Sunak he thinks the economy comes first. Like Sunak he does not understand economic externalities. Like Sunak he thinks that the cost of Covid can be shifted from the government to the public balance sheet by simply ending all interventions, including those on public health and for those who suffer the economic consequences of being sick. Like Sunak he believes that this will let the government balance its books. Like Sunak he thinks this the government’s priority. And like Sunak, the reason for this belief is naive ideology and not evidence. As far as I can see two interests gain. One is the ideologue: finally, Ayn Rand will have her day. That is what Javid, most especially, wants. We must suffer the consequences of life without state support. That is Javid’s plan. Life in the raw is to be unleashed on us. He believes it for our own good that we must suffer. And pharmaceutical companies gain. They are already guaranteed billions and maybe trillions in profit from Covid as a result of vaccine manufacture. The US and EU have refused to open up vaccines for all, for free: market interests have already come first. And now it seems that the aim is to make sure that new variants can develop. This will perpetuate demand for vaccines as any possibility of controlling and effectively containing Covid is abandoned. This then will create a demand for updated vaccines when an elimination strategy would remove this source of profit for the pharmaceutical companies. So, we are to suffer the raw harshness of market-based logic so that some in that market, with rights reinforced by the state, can profit unduly. I find it very hard to offer any other explanation for what is about to happen in the UK. What I hope is that the rest of the world realises this. I hope they call it out. I sincerely hope that they isolate us, as would be the only rational reaction, starting with a block on UK attendance at the Olympics, I would suggest. And then they might have a hope of being protected from our insanity. But it would only be a small hope. We are literally threatening the well-being of the world right now. And that is unforgivable.

Surge in homelessness underway with ending of the evictions ban for renters – Following the lifting of the ban on bailiff-led evictions by the UK Conservative government on May 31, a surge in the numbers of homeless is a certainty. Prime Minister Boris Johnson brought in the ban on evictions at the beginning of the pandemic, seeking to placate the growing anger of workers facing the threat of losing their homes as a result of being laid off or on reduced pay after being furloughed. Homelessness has been on the increase year on year in England for years. Just before the pandemic, the numbers of homeless households increased again, with the annual report by homeless charity Crisis noting that it had shot up from 207,600 in 2018 to over 219,000 at the end of 2019. The lifting of the eviction ban, delayed several times, was central to the government’s determination to have no further lockdowns and reopen the economy in two weeks’ time on July 19 – regardless of the resurgence of the pandemic through the Delta variant. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation released a survey the same day as the lifting of the ban, which showed around 400,000 renting households (representing five percent of renters) had already been served an eviction notice, or been told they may be evicted, The survey revealed that in addition around 450,000 households were currently in rent arrears, of which 18 percent had arrears of more than four months. Landlords have to give only four weeks’ notice of eviction to tenants more than four months in arrears of rent. Around one million renters (11 percent of the total), half being families with children were worried about being evicted in the coming three months, the survey found. Workers face other pressures which will intensify an already precarious situation. The government furlough, job retention scheme which provided 80 percent of the wages (up to a maximum of Pound Sterling2,500) of workers laid off during the pandemic is due to finish September 30. From July 1, the state will pay just 70 percent of wages up to Pound Sterling2,187.50, with employers being asked to pay the rest, adding to workers insecurity, with employers no doubt considering further layoffs as a result. In addition, the Pound Sterling20 a week upgrading of the Universal Credit welfare payment paid in the course of the pandemic will also end in September. Despite the ban on evictions during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, staggering numbers of people were still made homeless. An Observer newspaper analysis published June 13 found that around 130,000 households became homeless over that period. The newspaper analysed government data, from around 70 percent of local authorities, obtained under the Freedom of Information Act. It showed 132,362 households were owed “relief duty”, meaning they were assessed as already homeless. A further 106,000 were assessed as being owed “prevention duty” meaning while not legally homeless they were at risk of being so. Housing charity Shelter chief executive, Polly Neate, said of the figure, “The ban didn’t stop tens of thousands from facing homelessness. During the pandemic, the most common triggers for homelessness were no longer being able to stay with friends or family, losing a private tenancy, and domestic abuse.” A spokesperson from the Acorn tenants’ union told the newspaper, “The government’s commitment to tackling the crisis of homelessness has repeatedly been shown to exist only in word and not in action.

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