Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 17October 2020

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

The news posted last week for the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some important articles are summarized here. The articles are more or less organized with general virus news and anecdotes first, then stories from around the US, followed by an increased number of items from other countries around the globe. New US cases turned up by 12% in the last week. US deaths continued a slow decline. Elsewhere, new cases are rising again in Europe and India is the new global hotspot. Economic news related to COVID-19 is found here.

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Summary:

As I’m sure you know, the third wave of the coronavirus in the US is now well underway; new cases hit an 11 week high on Thursday and topped that by 8% on Friday. The 7 day average is up 25% over the past two weeks. US deaths are still little changed – for now. New cases globally hit new records three times this week, with the week over week increase nearly 14%. Civilization continues to lose this one.

Calculated Risk is tracking the daily testing rate and results. The 17 October graphic:

Another source of regularly updated data is the Johns Hopkins’ web site. Below is a graphic for Johns Hopkins for the daily global new cases since the start of the pandemic.

Also, the map from Reuters has been updated for dara through 15 October. Last week the data was as of 10 October and there have been very significant changes in just 5 days. The map is interactive to show data if you click on it:

Of course, Steven Hansen summarizes and links the latest news related to the pandemic every day, 7 days a week, plus displays over a dozen important graphics updated at least daily. The most recent article at the time this is published: 17 October 2020 Coronavirus Charts and News: Most Recipients Of The Last Stimulus Check Either Paid Off Debt or Put It Into Savings.

This article leads the daily newsletter from Global Economic Intersection every day. Newsletter subscription is free.

Here are the rest of the articles for the past week reviewed and summarized:

Studies offer new evidence for possible link between blood type & COVID-19 susceptibility – Two studies published today in Blood Advances suggest people with blood type O may have a lower risk of COVID-19 infection and reduced likelihood of severe outcomes, including organ complications, if they do get sick.new studies add evidence that there may be an association between blood type and vulnerability to COVID-19; however, additional research is needed to better understand why and what it means for patients. Blood type O may offer some protection against COVID-19 infection, according to a retrospective study . Researchers compared Danish health registry data from more than 473,000 individuals tested for COVID-19 to data from a control group of more than 2.2 million people from the general population. Among the COVID-19 positive, they found fewer people with blood type O and more people with A, B, and AB types. The study results suggest that people with blood types A, B, or AB may be more likely to be infected with COVID-19 than people with type O. The researchers did not find any significant difference in rate of infection between A, B, and AB types. Since blood group distributions vary among ethnic subgroups, the researchers also controlled for ethnicity and maintained that fewer people with blood type O tested positive for the virus. “It is very important to consider the proper control group because blood type prevalence may vary considerably in different ethnic groups and different countries,” Blood groups A and AB associated with increased risk of severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19 infection People with blood groups A or AB appear to exhibit greater COVID-19 disease severity than people with blood groups O or B, according to a separate retrospective study . Researchers examined data from 95 critically ill COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Vancouver, Canada. They found that patients with blood groups A or AB were more likely to require mechanical ventilation, suggesting that they had greater rates of lung injury from COVID-19. They also found more patients with blood group A and AB required dialysis for kidney failure. Together, these findings suggest that patients in these two blood groups may have an increased risk of organ dysfunction or failure due to COVID-19 than people with blood types O or B. Furthermore, while people with blood types A and AB did not have longer overall hospital stays than those with types O or B, they did remain in the intensive care unit (ICU) for a longer average time, which may also signal a greater COVID-19 severity level.

China Finds Active Covid-19 Virus on Frozen Food Packaging – China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention said it found active Covid-19 virus on the outer component of refrigerated food packaging, adding that it showed the possibility of infection via such contaminated surfaces, according to state broadcaster CCTV. The virus was found on food packaging in the coastal city of Qingdao in Shandong province, the report said, without specifying the origin of the product. Qingdao has reported a dozen new virus cases this month, most linked to a hospital where infected travelers from overseas are being treated. China has said several times in recent months that imported refrigerated goods are risks for re-introducing the coronavirus into the country. It had previously tested product packaging from various countries and found positive cases of the virus. It subsequently banned imported products including seafood from Indonesia and chicken wings from Brazil following positive tests on shipping containers and food packaging. World Health Organization experts have suggested there’s no evidence the virus can be transported via food packaging.

Age does not contribute to COVID-19 susceptibility, does contribute to seriousness – Scientists have estimated that the age of an individual does not indicate how likely they are to be infected by SARS-CoV-2. However, development of symptoms, progression of the disease, and mortality are age-dependent. There have been a large number of deaths due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it has been shown that elderly individuals disproportionately develop severe symptoms and show higher mortality. A team of scientists, including Associate Professor Ryosuke Omori from the Research Center for Zoonoses Control at Hokkaido University, have modeled available data from Japan, Spain and Italy to show that susceptibility to COVID-19 is independent of age, while occurrence of symptomatic COVID-19, severity and mortality is likely dependent on age. Their results were published in the journal Scientific Reports on October 6, 2020. Causes of mortality in elderly individuals may be due to two factors: how likely they are to be infected due to their advanced age (age-dependent susceptibility), which is reflected in the number of cases; and, how likely they will be affected by a severe form of the disease due to their advanced age (age-dependent severity), which is reflected in the mortality rate. These factors are not fully understood for COVID-19. The scientists chose to analyse data from Italy, Spain and Japan to determine if any relationship between age, susceptibility and severity. These three countries were chosen as they have well recorded, publicly available data. As of May 2020, the mortality rate (number of deaths per 100,000) was 382.3 for Italy, 507.2 for Spain and 13.2 for Japan. However, despite the wide disparity in mortality rates, the age distribution of mortality (the proportional number of deaths per age group) was similar for these countries.

Very low risk to newborns from moms with COVID-19, finds study–Mothers with SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely transmit the virus to their newborns when basic infection-control practices are followed, according to a new study by researchers at Columbia University Irving Medical Center and NewYork-Presbyterian Morgan Stanley Children’s Hospital. The findings–the most detailed data available on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission between moms and their newborns–suggest that more extensive measures like separating COVID-19-positive mothers from their newborns and avoiding direct breastfeeding may not be warranted. The study was published online today in JAMA Pediatrics. “Our findings should reassure expectant mothers with COVID-19 that basic infection-control measures during and after childbirth–such as wearing a mask and engaging in breast and hand hygiene when holding or breastfeeding a baby–protected newborns from infection in this series,” The researchers examined outcomes in the first 101 newborns born to COVID-19-positive mothers at NewYork-Presbyterian Morgan Stanley Children’s Hospital or NewYork-Presbyterian Allen Hospital from March 13 to April 24, 2020. To reduce the risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to newborns after delivery, hospital staff practiced social distancing, wore masks, and placed COVID-positive moms in private rooms. The hospitals provided the mothers with educational materials about COVID-19 and shortened hospital stays for all mothers without complications from delivery. Most of the newborns roomed with their mothers, including during the first postpartum checkup. (Some were admitted to the newborn intensive care unit for non-COVID-related health reasons.) Infants who roomed with their moms were placed in protective cribs six feet away from the mothers’ beds when resting. Direct breastfeeding and skin-to-skin contact with babies were strongly encouraged, provided the moms wore masks and washed hands and breasts with soap and water. Only two of the newborns tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 but had no clinical evidence of illness.

COVID-19 frequently causes neurological injuries – Without directly invading the brain or nerves, the virus responsible for COVID-19 causes potentially damaging neurological injuries in about one in seven infected, a new study shows. These injuries range from temporary confusion due to low body-oxygen levels, to stroke and seizures in the most serious cases, say the study authors.Led by researchers at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, the study showed no cases of brain or nerve inflammation (meningitis or encephalitis), indicating no immediate invasion of these organs by the pandemic virus, SARS-CoV-2.While this should reassure patients, the neurological complications of COVID-19 should be taken seriously because they dramatically raise a patient’s risk of dying while still in hospital (by 38 percent), researchers say. Such adverse effects also raise a coronavirus patient’s likelihood (by 28 percent) of needing long-term or rehabilitation therapy immediately after their stay in hospital.”The results of our study showed no signs that the coronavirus directly attacks the nervous system,” says study lead investigator Jennifer Frontera, MD. “The neurological complications seen in COVID-19 are predominately the secondary effects of being severely ill and suffering from low oxygen levels in the body for prolonged periods of time,” says Frontera, a professor in the Department of Neurology at NYU Langone Health.

A rare Covid complication is showing up in adults weeks after they have the virus – It was a rash that tipped Dr. Alisa Femia off.Femia, director of inpatient dermatology at NYU Langone Health in New York City, was looking at a patient’s chart, which included several photos of the 45-year-old man who had, in recent weeks, cared for his wife while she was sick with Covid-19. The man had dusky-red circular patches on the palms of his hands and the soles of his feet. His eyes were pink, and his lips were extremely chapped. His body was erupting with the kind of extreme inflammation noted almostexclusively in children at the time.”Before I even saw the patient,” Femia recalled, “I said: ‘This hasn’t been reported yet. This must be MIS-A.'”MIS-A stands for “multi-system inflammatory syndrome in adults.” When the condition was identified in children this spring, it was named MIS-C, with the C standing for “children.”Kids were developing dangerous inflammation around the heart and other organs, often weeks after their initial infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention alerted physicians to MIS-C in May. As of Oct. 1, the CDC had reported 1,027 confirmed cases of MIS-C, with more cases under investigation. Twenty children have died. In some cases, the children developed rashes like the one Femia noted in her adult patient.Femia and colleagues published details of the case in The Lancet in July to alert other physicians to be on the lookout for similar patients.”The skin’s right there in front of your eyes,” Femia said. “You can’t not see it.”But many doctors may not, in fact, be recognizing the condition in adults. Just a few dozen cases of MIS-A have been reported. And not all patients have obvious rashes.Dr. Sapna Bamrah Morris, clinical lead for the Health Care Systems and Worker Safety Task Force, part of the CDC’s Covid-19 response, detailed 27 cases in areport the agency published last week. MIS-A’s “true prevalence is unknown,” Morris said. “We have to get physicians realizing that. It may be rare, but we don’t know. It might be more common than we think.”

Battle Rages Inside Hospitals Over How COVID Strikes and Kills: Aerosols or Droplets –Front-line health care workers are locked in a heated dispute with many infection control specialists and hospital administrators over how the novel coronavirus is spread ― and therefore, what level of protective gear is appropriate.At issue is the degree to which the virus is airborne ― capable of spreading through tiny aerosol particles lingering in the air ― or primarily transmitted through large, faster-falling droplets from, say, a sneeze or cough. This wonky, seemingly semantic debate has a real-world impact on what sort of protective measures health care companies need to take to protect their patients and workers.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention injected confusion into the debate Friday with guidance putting new emphasis on airborne transmission and saying the tiny aerosol particles, as well as larger droplets, are the “main way the virus spreads.” By Monday that language was gonefrom its website, and the agency explained that it had posted a “draft version of proposed changes” in error and that experts were still working on updating “recommendations regarding airborne transmission.” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, addressed the debate head-on in aSept. 10 webcast for the Harvard Medical School, pointing to scientists specializing in aerosols who argued the CDC had “really gotten it wrong over many, many years.”“Bottom line is, there’s much more aerosol [transmission] than we thought,” Fauci said. The topic has been deeply divisive within hospitals, largely because the question of whether an illness spreads by droplets or aerosols drives two different sets of protective practices, touching on everything from airflow within hospital wards to patient isolation to choices of protective gear. Enhanced protections would be expensive and disruptive to a number of industries, but particularly to hospitals, which have fought to keep lower-level “droplet” protections in place.The hospital administrators and epidemiologists who argue that the virus is mostly droplet-spread cite studies that show it spreads to a small number of people, like a cold or flu. Therefore, N95 respirators and strict patient isolation practices aren’t necessary for routine care of COVID-19 patients, those officials say.On the other side are many occupational safety experts, aerosol scientists, front-line health care workers and their unions, who are quick to note that the novel coronavirus is far deadlier than the flu ― and argue that the science suggests that high-quality, and costlier, N95 respirators should be required for routine COVID-19 patient care.

Coronavirus Survives On Banknotes For Up To 4 Weeks, Study Finds, As Cash Usage Plunges – Bloomberg revived concerns about paper money contributing to the spread of COVID-19 by publicizing the findings from a new study suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 can persist on banknotes and coins for weeks. The research appears to be credible: it was conducted by Australia’s top biosecurity laboratory, which published a report highlighting the risks of paper currency, touch screens and handles like doorknobs. As the CDC releases revised guidelines claiming that close contact with the infected trumps surfaces and aerosol – or ‘airborne’ – transmission as the primary means of infection, the study from the Australian Center for Disease Preparedness suggested that the virus is actually “extremely robust”, allowing it to survive for up to 28 days on smooth surfaces like glass or the material used to print banknotes. However, the rate of survival on surfaces declined dramatically when the temperature climbed to above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Farenheit).Virus survival declined to less than a day at 40 degrees Celsius on some surfaces, according to the study, published Monday in Virology Journal. The findings add to evidence that the Covid-19-causing coronavirus survives for longer in cooler weather, making it potentially harder to control in winter than summer. The research also helps to more accurately predict and mitigate the pandemic’s spread, the researchers said.“Our results show that SARS-CoV-2 can remain infectious on surfaces for long periods of time, reinforcing the need for good practices such as regular hand washing and cleaning surfaces,” said Debbie Eagles, the center’s deputy director, in an emailed statement.The coronavirus tended to survive longer on nonporous or smooth surfaces, compared with porous complex surfaces, such as cotton. “The research may also help to explain the apparent persistence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in cool environments with high lipid or protein contamination, such as meat processing facilities and how we might better address that risk,” Trevor Drew, director of the Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, said in the statement. The virus’s extended survival time on stainless steel surfaces could help explain all those outbreaks traced to meat processing plants. The research, which was backed by the Australian department of defense, also concluded that SARS-CoV-2 survives for far longer on surfaces than the seasonal flu.

The effect of temperature on persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on common surfaces Virology Journal. Abstract:

• Background: The rate at which COVID-19 has spread throughout the globe has been alarming. While the role of fomite transmission is not yet fully understood, precise data on the environmental stability of SARS-CoV-2 is required to determine the risks of fomite transmission from contaminated surfaces.
• Methods: This study measured the survival rates of infectious SARS-CoV-2, suspended in a standard ASTM E2197 matrix, on several common surface types. All experiments were carried out in the dark, to negate any effects of UV light. Inoculated surfaces were incubated at 20 °C, 30 °C and 40 °C and sampled at various time points.
• Results ‘Survival rates of SARS-CoV-2 were determined at different temperatures and D-values, Z-values and half-life were calculated. We obtained half lives of between 1.7 and 2.7 days at 20 °C, reducing to a few hours when temperature was elevated to 40 °C. With initial viral loads broadly equivalent to the highest titres excreted by infectious patients, viable virus was isolated for up to 28 days at 20 °C from common surfaces such as glass, stainless steel and both paper and polymer banknotes. Conversely, infectious virus survived less than 24 h at 40 °C on some surfaces.
• Conclusion These findings demonstrate SARS-CoV-2 can remain infectious for significantly longer time periods than generally considered possible. These results could be used to inform improved risk mitigation procedures to prevent the fomite spread of COVID-19.

“While the role of fomite transmission is not yet fully understood, precise data on the environmental stability of SARS-CoV-2 is required to determine the risks of fomite transmission from contaminated surfaces.” In the lab, in the dark (no UV): “We obtained half lives of between 1.7 and 2.7 days at 20 °C, reducing to a few hours when temperature was elevated to 40 °C. With initial viral loads broadly equivalent to the highest titres excreted by infectious patients, viable virus was isolated for up to 28 days at 20 °C from common surfaces such as glass, stainless steel and both paper and polymer banknotes. Conversely, infectious virus survived less than 24 h at 40 °C on some surfaces.”

Abbott wins U.S. emergency use authorization for new COVID-19 antibody test (Reuters) – Abbott Laboratories said on Monday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has issued an emergency use authorization for its lab-based COVID-19 antibody blood test. The test, AdviseDx, can be used to identify a type of antibody called Immunoglobulin M (IgM) in blood samples to determine if someone has been exposure to the novel coronavirus, potentially indicating a recent or prior infection. Abbott has already received emergency use authorization for seven tests, including molecular tests, a rapid antigen test and another test which can detect a type of antibody called IgG. The FDA’s emergency use authorization allows the use of unapproved medical products in an emergency to diagnose, treat, or prevent serious or life-threatening diseases with no adequate or approved alternatives. IgG is longer lasting in the body after an infection, but IgM is more useful for determining a recent exposure to the coronavirus as these antibodies become undetectable weeks to months following an infection, Abbott said here. Unlike molecular tests, which can detect whether someone has the coronavirus, antibody tests determine if someone has had a previous infection by detecting disease-fighting proteins called antibodies. However, antibody tests are not recommended as the sole basis of diagnosis of COVID-19 as these antibodies may not be detected in the early days of the infection.

Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine study paused due to unexplained illness in participant – The study of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine has been paused due to an unexplained illness in a study participant. A document sent to outside researchers running the 60,000-patient clinical trial states that a “pausing rule” has been met, that the online system used to enroll patients in the study has been closed, and that the data and safety monitoring board – an independent committee that watches over the safety of patients in the clinical trial – would be convened. The document was obtained by STAT. Contacted by STAT, J&J confirmed the study pause, saying it was due to “an unexplained illness in a study participant.” The company declined to provide further details. “We must respect this participant’s privacy. We’re also learning more about this participant’s illness, and it’s important to have all the facts before we share additional information,” the company said in a statement. J&J emphasized that so-called adverse events – illnesses, accidents, and other bad medical outcomes – are an expected part of a clinical study, and also emphasized the difference between a study pause and a clinical hold, which is a formal regulatory action that can last much longer. The vaccine study is not currently under a clinical hold. J&J said that while it normally communicates clinical holds to the public, it does not usually inform the public of study pauses. The data and safety monitoring board, or DSMB, convened late Monday to review the case. J&J said that in cases like this “it is not always immediately apparent” whether the participant who experienced an adverse event received a study treatment or a placebo. Though clinical trial pauses are not uncommon – and in some cases last only a few days – they are generating outsized attention in the race to test vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. Given the size of Johnson & Johnson’s trial, it’s not surprising that study pauses could occur, and another could happen if this one resolves, a source familiar with the study said. “If we do a study of 60,000 people, that is a small village,” the source said. “In a small village there are a lot of medical events that happen.”

Eli Lilly pauses study of COVID-19 treatment over safety concerns – Eli Lilly’s late-stage clinical trial of a monoclonal antibody treatment for COVID-19 has been paused by federal regulators due a safety concern, the company said Tuesday. “Safety is of the utmost importance to Lilly. We are aware that, out of an abundance of caution, the ACTIV-3 independent data safety monitoring board (DSMB) has recommended a pause in enrollment,” spokeswoman Molly McCully told The Hill in an emailed statement. “Lilly is supportive of the decision by the independent DSMB to cautiously ensure the safety of the patients participating in this study,” McCully added. She did not provide any information about what caused the panel to recommend the pause or how long it might last. The clinical trial is designed to evaluate Lilly’s neutralizing antibody as a treatment for COVID-19 in hospitalized patients in combination with the antiviral drug remdesivir. It is being tested against a combination of remdesivir and a placebo. The trial is sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases as well as the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed. Thus far, more than 850 trial participants have been dosed, but the company said data from the trial is not yet available. Monoclonal antibodies are lab-generated versions of one of the human body’s main defenses against pathogens.

Have the Democrats Risked Ruin by Increasing Vaccine Hesitancy in the Electorate? – A failure of Covid vaccine uptake threatens the United States with ruin. Therefore, Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Precautionary Principle applies. Liberal Democrat election tactics have violated the Precautionary Principle by turning Trump into a demonic figure. In so doing, they may well have created “the horn effect” (the opposite of the halo effect) around the Administration’s vaccine development effort, Operation Warp Speed, thereby increasing vaccine hesitancy in the public, and risking vaccine uptake failure. The Trump Administration’s vaccine plan is called Operation Warp Speed; I have written about it here. The program design is clever: The Federal governement pays vaccine makers to work in parallel, developing vaccines and taking them all the way to the manufacturing stage without knowing they’ll work, in the hopes that one or more will pan out; that’s wasteful, to be sure, but not nearly as wasteful as ruin. (Similarly, given the PP, “goo goo” pearl-clutching about contracts and contractors is not relevant. I wish we didn’t have to rely on Big Pharma to do all this, but that’s where we are as a society so there’s no point fussing.) Authority figures like Dr. Anthony Fauci have said that Operation Warp speed should deliver at least one safe and effective vaccine in a few months. Good news, right? Well, that’s not how the Democrats are acting.To understand the oddities of the Democrat position, let’s look at the debates. First this exchange from Trump v. Biden:

• BIDEN: In terms of the whole notion of a vaccine, we’re for a vaccine, but I don’t trust him at all. Nor do you. I know you don’t. What we trust is a scientist.
• TRUMP: You don’t trust Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer?

Trump is correct, and a more disciplined debater would have pointed out – and more on-the-ball moderator followed up on – that Biden’s own platform “trust[s] Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer.” Here is the Biden platform on the technical aspects of vaccines: Invest $25 billion in a vaccine manufacturing and distribution plan that will guarantee it gets to every American, cost-free. Remarkably, Biden’s platform says nothing about developing or testing vaccines, implying by omission that Johnson & Johnson will have done their jobs. In other words, he assumes Operation Warp speed will succeed in producing a safe and effective vaccine. However, Biden is committed to different narrative: Turning Trump into a demon figure. From further on in the transcript we have this really rather astonishing exchange:

A 25-year-old man becomes first in the U.S. to contract coronavirus twice, with second infection – A 25-year-old man in the U.S. state of Nevada has contracted the coronavirus on two separate occasions, a study in the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal showed, with the patient becoming seriously ill following the second infection. It is the first confirmed case of a U.S. patient becoming re-infected with Covid-19, and the fifth known case reported worldwide. The resident of Washoe County, who had no known immune disorders or history of significant underlying conditions, required hospital treatment on testing positive for Covid-19 for the second time. He has now recovered, though the case raises further questions about the prospect of developing protective immunity against the coronavirus. To date, more than 37.8 million people have contracted Covid-19 worldwide, with 1.08 million related deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The head of emergencies at the WHO said earlier this month that its “best estimates” indicate that roughly 1 in 10 people globally may have been infected by the coronavirus, significantly higher than the number of confirmed cases. On March 25, the peer-reviewed medical journal said in a study that a 25-year-old man in Nevada’s second-most populous county experienced a wave of symptoms consistent with a viral infection, including sore throat, cough, headache, nausea and diarrhea. He presented to a community testing event held by Washoe County Health District on April 18 and tested positive for Covid-19 for the first time. The patient’s initial symptoms fully cleared during isolation on April 27. He continued to feel well thereafter and tested negative for the coronavirus on two separate occasions, on May 9 and on May 26. The 25-year-old experienced symptoms again from May 28, this time including fever, headache, dizziness, cough, nausea, and diarrhea. On June 5, 48 days after the initial positive test, the patient contracted the virus for the second time. His condition was found to be symptomatically “more severe” than the first. He presented to a primary care doctor and required hospital treatment on experiencing shortness of breath. He later recovered and was discharged from the hospital.

Total deaths recorded during the pandemic far exceed those attributed to COVID-19 – – For every two deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S., a third American dies as a result of the pandemic, according to new data publishing Oct. 12 in the Journal of the American Medical Association. The study, led by researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University, shows that deaths between March 1 and Aug. 1 increased 20% compared to previous years — maybe not surprising in a pandemic. But deaths attributed to COVID-19 only accounted for 67% of those deaths. “Contrary to skeptics who claim that COVID-19 deaths are fake or that the numbers are much smaller than we hear on the news, our research and many other studies on the same subject show quite the opposite,” said lead author Steven Woolf, M.D., director emeritus of VCU’s Center on Society and Health. The study also contains suggestive evidence that state policies on reopening early in April and May may have fueled the surges experienced in June and July. “The high death counts in Sun Belt states show us the grave consequences of how some states responded to the pandemic and sound the alarm not to repeat this mistake going forward,” Total death counts in the U.S. are remarkably consistent from year to year, as the study notes. The study authors pulled data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for 2014 to 2020, using regression models to predict expected deaths for 2020. The gap between reported COVID-19 deaths and all unexpected deaths can be partially explained by delays in reporting COVID-19 deaths, miscoding or other data limitations, Woolf said. But the pandemic’s other ripple effects could explain more. “Some people who never had the virus may have died because of disruptions caused by the pandemic,””These include people with acute emergencies, chronic diseases like diabetes that were not properly care for, or emotional crises that led to overdoses or suicides.”

Army chief of staff: COVID-19 having effect on troop suicides – Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville said Tuesday that he sees a direct correlation between COVID-19 and the rise in troop suicides. “I am very concerned about the behavioral health impacts of COVID and its effect on our soldiers,” McConville told reporters at the Pentagon. “Some of the scientists have said they’ve not been able to show causation between COVID and suicide, but I would argue, at least my sense is, it is having an effect because it disconnects people.” Army leadership has voiced concern about the increase in suicides in its ranks since March, when many people were told to stay home due to the coronavirus pandemic and the Pentagon began to limit movement of forces. The Associated Press first reported last month that military suicide deaths since early spring were up as much as 20 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Among Army active-duty troops, that increase was around 30 percent, with 114 suicides as of Aug. 31, compared to 88 last year. July saw the most suicides at 35 – more than one a day. Following the report’s release, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy and McConville said that the service has moved to improve access to behavioral health care “in the face of additional stress of a pandemic.” But officials have been hesitant to link COVID-19 to the increase in military members taking their own lives. Earlier this month, Defense Suicide Prevention Office Director Karin Orvis told reporters that it was too early to make a connection, as suicide counts “do not account for changes in population size or provide enough time for essential investigations to determine cause of death.”

COVID-19 devastates Native American reservations in California and across the US – The COVID-19 pandemic has had a harmful impact on Native American reservations across much of the United States. As many tribes rely on revenue from casinos and other gambling operations, the pandemic has led to job losses and depleted funding for social services. The residents of reservations – among the poorest and most isolated places in the country, where homes often lack electricity or running water – have suffered higher than average rates of infection and death from coronavirus. While the pandemic has continued to rage across the US, the wealthy owners of lucrative casinos have insisted on re-opening without any significant restrictions regardless of the health consequences. Casino workers and tribal residents, among the most exploited layers of the population, have been made to suffer as a result. Marquee outside the Golden Moon Casino and Hotel run by the Choctaw Tribe. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis) Early last month, a Harrah’s Resort Southern California executive resigned in May after raising concerns about reopening the casino in the middle of a global pandemic. The resort is owned by the Rincon Band of the Luiseno Indians. Darrel Pilant, a general manager and senior vice president and employee of 23 years, filed a lawsuit against the casino’s operator, Caesars Entertainment Inc., after claiming he was forced to resign after Harrah’s made moves to reopen its casino resort back in May of this year, in defiance of a mandated stay at home order issued by Governor Gavin Newsom. Pilant stated that the decision to reopen the casino caused “serious adverse health and safety consequences involving employees and customers contracting COVID-19.” Through September of this year, 217 residents of San Diego County who contracted the novel virus reported being at a casino within two weeks of becoming ill. The numbers reported included 12 hospitalizations and the death of one casino patron. All the confirmed cases were connected to San Diego County’s nine casinos and include 76 employees and 141 patrons. Casino spokespersons were quick to deny responsibility by stating that casino patrons who tested positive cannot confirm that they contracted the virus from a casino itself, and furthermore, San Diego County officials have refused to name the specific tribal casinos where each of the outbreaks have occurred.

California COVID-19 Outbreak Accelerates; Dr. Fauci Says Trump Ad Took Comments Out Of Context – The US added 50k+ new cases for a fourth straight day on Saturday, and it looks like the US is on track to top that number for a 5th day on Sunday. In the US, California reported 3,803 new cases, a 0.5% increase from the previous day, to 846,579, a number that was higher than the previous week’s daily average. Deaths increased by 64 to 16,564. Texas meanwhile reported 31 deaths bringing the a total to 16,557. The number of new cases increased by 2,262, the lowest number in six days, to 792,478. Anthony Fauci said Sunday that a new ad released by the Trump campaign takes him out of context, where a quote from a press briefing earlier this year says “I can’t imagine anybody doing more”. “In my nearly five decades of public service, I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate,” Dr. Fauci told CNN. In other news, Italy reported 5,456 new cases on Sunday, its second highest tally since late March, despite falling numbers of people being tested per day. The positivity rate, which has almost doubled in the last 10 days, jumped to 5.2%. More local authorities in different parts of Spain are tightening restrictions: Officials in Navarra said they plan to reduce capacity to 30% in restaurants and bars, which must now close by 2200 local time, and limit social gatherings to no more than six people, according to El Mundo. Though unlike in Madrid, the Navarra government said it won’t forbid people from leaving the region. France reported just 16,101 new cases Sunday after reporting a staggering 26k+ on Saturday. The number was the lowest in five days. Ontario’s new cases declined to 649 cases Saturday from 809 on Friday and a record 939 registered a day earlier, according to the public health agency. NY Gov Andrew Cuomo said Sunday the state is doing “very well” overall; it has a 0.84% positive test rate when excluding the hot spots. The rate in the state’s hot spots where COVID-19 is elevated is 5.7%, on average, he said during a phone briefing with reporters.

California kept prison factories open. Inmates worked for pennies an hour as COVID-19 spread – LA Times – While much of California shut down this spring, Robbie Hall stitched masks for 12 hours a day in a sewing factory at a women’s prison in Chino. For several weeks, Hall and other women said, they churned out masks by the thousands but were forbidden from wearing them. The incarcerated seamstresses at the California Institution for Women grew increasingly worried: The fabric they used came from the nearby men’s prison, where an outbreak ended up killing 23 inmates. And their boss regularly visited both institutions. “Are we safe with her going over there and coming back here?” Hall remembered asking her co-workers as they sewed. Then it happened. In early May, COVID-19 broke out in the sewing factory, sickening at least four incarcerated workers, including Hall. She spent weeks in the hospital struggling to breathe. California’s prison system has taken drastic measures to combat the coronavirus, halting rehab programs, religious services and educational classes. But correctional authorities kept one type of operation running through much of the last six months: prison factories. Hall was one of thousands of incarcerated workers who stayed on the job in high-risk positions during the pandemic, making wages that ranged from 8 cents to $1 an hour. They cooked the food. They walked from cell to cell delivering meals. They cleaned everything from communal showers to COVID-19 units in prison hospitals. And they labored in prison factories making products, such as masks, hand sanitizer and furniture, that were sold to state agencies for millions of dollars. It was “like a slave factory. The more you give them, the more they want.” Amid the drive for production, factories continued to operate even as infections increased inside prison walls, according to interviews with more than 30 inmates at the women’s prison in Chino and at Avenal State Prison for men, including some who became infected with the coronavirus. The factories brought together inmates who were housed in different units, heightening the risk of spreading the virus to other areas inside the prisons, The Times found. Factory staff, they said, warned that workers would lose their jobs – their only source of income – if they missed a day. Some said they were threatened with discipline that could jeopardize their chances for release from prison if they refused to work because of COVID-19 fears. At the Chino prison, workers said, supervisors kept raising the daily quotas, from 2,000 to 3,000 to 3,500 masks. Seven days a week, the women cranked out masks until their bodies ached, and all they could do at night was collapse asleep in their cells. It was “like a slave factory,” Hall said. “The more you give them, the more they want.”

Coronavirus in Ohio: Buckeye State hits grim milestone of 5,000 deaths from COVID-19 – Hitting a grim pandemic milestone, Ohio surpassed 5,000 deaths from the new coronavirus, a pathogen that emerged in humans only late last year and now is a leading killer in the Buckeye State and the nation. The six deaths announced Monday afternoon pushed the state’s death toll to 5,005.Public health experts also have cautioned that any count of the coronavirus dead will be lower than the actual number of fatalities as it’s likely people have died with the virus but were not tested for it or treated for COVID-19, the illness that develops from infection of the coronavirus. Here’s what the toll of 5,005 dead Ohioans means. Ohio ranks 13th in the country in COVID-19 deaths. The leaders: New York, Texas, California, New Jersey, Texas and Florida. Ohio ranks 25th in deaths for every 100,000 people: COVID-19 had killed 1 of every 2,335 Ohioans as of Oct. 11. The leaders in the death rate: New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Louisiana. The 5,005 Ohio deaths from COVID-19 so far is more than the combined total of Ohio’s military service deaths in the Vietnam War, 2,997, and the Korean War, 1,777. The 5,005 Ohio deaths so far now make COVID-19 at least the seventh-leading cause of death in the state following heart disease, cancer, accidents, lung disease, stroke and Alzheimer’s disease. The 5,005 Ohio deaths so far from COVID-19 are fewer than the average annual Ohio deaths from lung cancer, about 7,200, but more than the annual average deaths for colorectal cancer, 2,234, and breast cancer, 1,755, combined. The Ohio Department of Health does not count adult deaths from flu. But the national estimate for the 2019-2020 flu season was between 24,000 and 62,000 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University online counter reports that as of Oct. 12, the new coronavirus has caused the deaths of more than 210,000 Americans. The 5,005 death so far is roughly the populations of Munroe Falls, a bedroom community in Summit County of less than three square miles, 5,095; the Clermont County town of Amelia, 5,061; and St. Clairsville in Belmont County, 4,934. Eighty-four of Ohio’s 88 counties have experienced a death from COVID-19. The only counties without any deaths are Morgan, Noble, Paulding and Pike. The top five Ohio counties in reporting deaths:

1. Cuyahoga, 667
2. Franklin, 635
3. Lucas, 370
4. Hamilton, 337
5. Mahoning, 282

Wisconsin breaks single-day records for COVID-19 deaths, cases – Wisconsin on Tuesday reached a new state record for the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in a single day with 3,279 reported infections, according to the state’s department of health. Tuesday’s numbers surpass Wisconsin’s previous single-day record increase of 3,132 cases on Oct. 8. There were also 34 new deaths on Tuesday, hitting a record for the state’s largest single-day increase in deaths, up from its previous high of 27 on Sept. 30. The health department has now recorded a total of 155,471 total confirmed infections since COVID-19 first hit the state, with 1,508 people dead as a result of the virus. As of Tuesday, 8,601 people in Wisconsin had been hospitalized as a result of COVID-19, with 147 new hospitalizations reported on Tuesday. The rising number of infections in the Midwestern state has led Gov. Tony Evers (D) to reimpose restrictions on businesses and other activities, leading to pushback from Wisconsin Republicans. On Monday, a Wisconsin judge ruled in favor of Evers continuing enforcement of the state’s mandatory mask mandate after the Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty, backed by the state’s GOP-controlled legislature, argued that the governor overstepped his executive authority by issuing multiple emergency orders to slow the COVID-19 pandemic. Rick Esenberg, the group’s president, said they would appeal the decision after it was announced Monday, calling the issue a “critical constitutional matter.” Evers had implemented a 60-day public health emergency in March and renewed the order in July after the legislature did not extend it. The July order required all residents to wear a mask when indoors in public. An order last month extended the mandate to Nov. 21 amid a surge in COVID-19 cases in the state and implemented a $200 fine for those who do not comply.

Trump Tests Negative; More Shutdowns in Europe: Virus Update – President Donald Trump has tested negative for Covid-19 on consecutive days, a week after being released from the hospital for treatment of the disease, White House doctor Sean Conley said. “This comprehensive data, in concert with the CDC’s guidelines for removal of transmission-based precautions, have informed our medical team’s assessment that the President is not infectious to others,” Conley said in a memo. The proportion of Americans dying from coronavirus infections is the highest in the developed world, according to a study released Monday. . The pathogen continued its unrelenting spread, with resurgences across Europe spurring containment efforts. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnsontightened restrictions, including closing pubs in hot spots, while the Czech Republic shut schools, restaurants and bars through early November. China recorded its biggest cluster in months, Iran posted record numbers of virus-related deaths and India’s cases climbed past 7 million. AstraZeneca Plc said an antibody medicine is advancing into the last stage of clinical tests. Key Developments:

• Global Tracker: cases pass 37.6 million; deaths top 1.07 million
• U.S. Hot Spots: Covid-19 soars in red states as Trump returns to trail
• Top U.K. medic warns hot spot curbs aren’t enough to stop virus
• The coronavirus may remain infectious for weeks on banknotes
• Fauci says he was taken out of context in Trump campaign ad
• Coronavirus has exposed global leadership crisis: survey

Thirteen States Set Seven-Day Record for New Coronavirus Cases – Thirteen states reported Sunday that they had broken their previous seven-day coronavirus case records. The states that beat their own records for the most new cases in the seven-day period ending Sunday evening are Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, according to a USA Today analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. Many of those states are now seeing more than 25 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people. In Oklahoma, there have been an average of 1,172 new cases per day over the past week, a jump of 13 percent from the average two weeks ago. Wisconsin has experienced a particularly steep spike with an average of 2,696 new cases per day, 20 percent higher than the average new cases the state logged two weeks earlier. While metropolitan areas were the first to become hotspots for the coronavirus, midwestern states that fared better during the initial wave of the virus have seen their cases spike in recent months. Meanwhile, a 25-year-old man from Nevada became the first known American to be infected a second time with the coronavirus, raising concerns about immunity in those who have already had the virus. Several different strains of the coronavirus exist in the U.S. Trump administration officials have expressed confidence that a coronavirus vaccine will be available to the public by the end of the year. So far, four drugmakers have vaccine trials that have reached late-stage testing under the administration’s coronavirus vaccine program, Operation Warp Speed. In June, Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor for the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, said that he is “cautiously optimistic” that a vaccine for the coronavirus will be available to the American public by the end of the year or early 2021. The U.S. has seen more than 7.7 million cases and 215,000 deaths from the coronavirus. Worldwide, more than 37.6 million people have contracted the virus, and more than 1 million have died after being infected.

October 13 COVID-19 Test Results – The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 840,142 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 46,647 positive tests. Over 8,600 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.5% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the July high. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high – see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. Everyone needs to be vigilant or we might see record high cases this Fall and Winter.

Coronavirus dashboard for October 14: winter is coming — Total US confirmed cases: 7,806,805*

Average cases last 7 days: 51,038

Total US deaths: 215,887

Average deaths last 7 days: 714

*Actual cases probably more like 14 million, or over 4% of the US population

Today let’s take a look at the most recent upsurge in COVID not just in the US, but in the entire West. Here is the 7 day average of new cases per capita in the US, Canada, and the 5 most populous countries in Europe: Every single country, even Germany, is experiencing an upsurge. France, Spain, and the UK are having an even worse outbreak than the US. Here are deaths per capita. Note that this graph only shows the past 12 weeks. Early on the US, UK, Spain and Italy all had daily deaths on the order of 14 to 18 per capita, dwarfing everything since: We know that these will follow new cases with a 2 to 4 week lag. Spain already exceeds the US. France and the UK are following behind. All things considered, Canada and Germany are still doing quite well. But the increase in cases there certainly points to how hard it is to keep this virus contained. Within the US, here is the spaghetti chart of cases in all 50 States plus DC and the territories: Note that the Dakotas and Montana now have worse outbreaks than even NY did in April. Here are deaths: In April, NY had deaths of about 50 per capita every day, so even North Dakota, at 14 per day, while the worst since then – even surpassing Arizona’s summer spike – is nowhere near that bad – yet. Here are the bottom 10 jurisdictions for infections: Only Maine and Vermont among the 50 States still have the pandemic controlled. Finally, here are the bottom 10 for deaths: Again, only Maine and Vermont have still fully contained the virus. And winter is coming.

COVID-19 trouble for coal miners black lung disease – Appalachian miners who experience the debilitating, terminal condition known as black lung disease have to fight to get the care and government support they need, even in the best of times. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic is making life even harder. “You gotta wear a mask, and with your breathing problems and stuff, it’s hard to walk around and breathe through the mask. It’s like sucking in hot air,” says Jerry Coleman, who worked as a coal miner for 37 years, mostly underground near Cabin Creek, West Virginia. “But I don’t have no choice. With the condition of my lungs, I can’t take a chance.” The lungs of someone with PMF are permanently and irreversibly scarred and the lungs gradually deteriorate until the person can no longer breathe. Coleman has complicated black lung disease, also known as progressive massive fibrosis, which is incurable. The lungs of someone with PMF are permanently and irreversibly scarred and the lungs gradually deteriorate until the person can no longer breathe. COVID-19 is classified as a respiratory virus. It can affect and even be deadly to the healthiest of people, but the most vulnerable are those with high-risk conditions, such as lung disease and old age – common characteristics of much of West Virginia’s former coal miner population. “Each different lung disease kind of takes away some of your lung function,” says Carl Werntz, an occupational medical specialist who gives black lung exams, a crucial step to apply for federal black lung benefits. “If you have black lung, that’s going to take away some lung function. So that person, if they get COVID [-19] and it bothers their lungs, they’re going to run out of usable lung much faster than somebody who starts out with healthy lungs.” Since the pandemic began, Werntz says, black lung exams were put on hold at the clinic in Cabin Creek where he works. Exams slowly resumed in July, but at half capacity. Typically, he sees six to eight patients a day, but with new COVID-19 protocols, Werntz says he sees three to four – creating a backlog of patients waiting for their black lung exam. “The longer you wait to do the testing to show that they really have the disease, the longer it is until they can get the benefits, including, potentially, medical care if they don’t have some other way to pay for their breathing care,” Werntz explains.

Coronavirus hospitalizations in New York state are up 97% since September 1, with Gov. Cuomo largely blaming virus hotspots -New York state is experiencing a dramatic rise in coronavirus hospitalizations, which are up 97% from September 1. On Sunday, 878 people in the state were reported as being currently hospitalized, compared to 445 on September 1, according to state data. The 97% increase first reported by Syracuse.com.The number of patients in intensive care is also up by 58% since September 1. The state recorded 185 people in intensive care units on Sunday, compared to 117 on September 1.The seven-day rolling average of hospital beds available across the reason remain at 25%, and average share of ICU beds across the region at 36%, state data said.The number of coronavirus deaths in New York remain low, however, with the state saying it had recorded 12 new deaths on Sunday. For comparison, statewide deaths reached a high of 799 at the virus’ peak in the region in April.The rise in hospitalizations is no doubt a concern for New Yorkers who weathered what was, at one point, the largest outbreak in the US.But Gov. Andrew Cuomo sought to ease some of those concerns in aMonday conference call with reporters, blaming the hospitalizations on a select number of hotspots in the state. The governor blamed the increase in hospitalizations on coronavirus clusters throughout the state that public-health officials are monitoring.

South Dakota governor blames surge in COVID-19 cases on more testing —South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) this week attributed the state’s surge in COVID-19 cases to increased testing, saying, “That’s expected.””We have triple the amount of testing that we are doing in the state of South Dakota, which is why we’re seeing elevated positive cases,” Noem said, according to The Associated Press. “That’s normal, that’s natural, that’s expected.” Data from the South Dakota Department of Health initially showed that as of Tuesday there were no open general-care hospital beds in the southeastern portion of the state, which includes the two largest hospitals.The state agency later said, citing a data reporting error, that 23 percent of general-care hospital beds were available in medical facilities in the southeastern part of the state. “As the dashboard went live at noon on Tuesday, we identified two issues which we worked quickly to resolve,” the agency said in a statement regarding the error. Hospitals in Sioux Falls have about 41 percent of their intensive care units (ICU) available. Noem did not explain how an increase in hospitalizations would correlate to an increase in testing, the AP reported. The New York Times reported Wednesday North Dakota and South Dakota have the most massive outbreaks per capita in the country.The percentage of tests coming back positive in South Dakota has averaged to nearly 24 percent in the last seven days, according to Johns Hopkins University, an indication that there is a growing community spread. The World Health Organization (WHO) indicates that a test positivity rate of 5 percent or lower is a sign COVID-19 is well-controlled in an area.

Wisconsin Covid-19 Trends – Menzie Chinn – This graph is for those who believe reports of negative outcomes Wisconsin are “fake news”. Figure 1: Wisconsin current Covid-19 hospitalizations (blue, left log scale), fatalities as of date reported (red, right scale). Source: Covid Tracking Project, accessed 10/14/2020. From Wisconsin State Journal (10/13/2020): Citing inaction by the state Legislature, a St. Croix County judge on Monday rejected a request by a conservative legal group for a temporary injunction against Gov. Tony Evers’ statewide mask mandate.…The GOP-led Legislature has met once since the pandemic began, in April, to take up legislation in response to COVID-19. Lawmakers and Evers ultimately signed what officials on both sides of the aisle described as “imperfect” legislation.The package aimed to complement federal aid allocated to the state, included additional Medicaid funding, allowed for increased unemployment benefits from the federal government and waived a one-week waiting period for benefits until February. The bill also allowed the state budget committee to spend up to $75 million during the public health emergency on coronavirus-related needs, though the committee has not exercised that authority.Vos and Fitzgerald did not respond to requests for comment on Monday.…Johnson, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month, said he is opposed to the governor’s mask mandate.

October 16 COVID-19 Test Results – The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 1,046,412 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 68,124 positive tests. Almost 11,300 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.5% (red line is 7 day average). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.And check out COVID Exit Strategyto see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the July high.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high – see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. Everyone needs to be vigilant or we might see record high cases before the end of October.

The Latest: New Mexico sets another one-day COVID-19 record — New Mexico health officials on Friday confirmed the state set another single-day record with 819 COVID-19 cases, bringing the statewide total to 35,770 since the pandemic began. New rules to limit gatherings to five people or less, reduce hotel capacities and impose a 10 p.m. closing time for bars and some restaurants also took effect Friday after successive days of record-breaking daily infection rates. The previous record of 672 on Thursday already had eclipsed records set in recent days. The state on Friday also reported six additional deaths related to the pandemic, bringing that total to 928. At the University of New Mexico, eight football players and one assistant coach have tested positive for the coronavirus and high positivity rates in the county where the school is located have forced the postponement of practice. University athletic director Eddie Nuñez said if the team is unable to practice for the next week, they will not be able to safely play their first scheduled game on Oct. 24 against Colorado State.

COVID-19 surge prompts warnings that anticipated ‘third wave’ is now here – COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations are increasing again with no sign of stopping, sparking fears that the fall and winter wave experts had warned about all year is already here. Over the past week, according to The New York Times COVID-19 tracker, the U.S. has confirmed an average of 54,000 new cases per day, a 25 percent increase compared to two weeks ago. The surge cannot solely be explained by an increase in testing. Nineteen states, including North Dakota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Kansas and Indiana, are seeing record-high case numbers in their areas, according to the tracker. States that have seemingly gained control of the pandemic in recent months, such as Florida, New York, New Jersey, Arizona and others, are also seeing increases. “We’ve been talking about the fall surge for a long time now. I think that is the beginning of that reality,” Scott Gottlieb, Trump’s former Food and Drug commissioner, told CNBC on Friday. Gottlieb added that Europe, which is seeing a daily average of 100,000 new COVID-19 cases – higher than at any other time during the pandemic – is probably about two or three weeks ahead of the U.S. “I think we’re in for a difficult fall and winter,” Gottlieb said. Hospitalizations are also beginning to increase, with Wisconsin building a field hospital on the state park fairground. Deaths remain flat at about 700 per day in the U.S., but that number typically lags behind hospitalizations, which lag behind case increases, meaning the U.S. could see more fatalities reported in the coming weeks. The silver lining, Gottlieb said, is the death rate will likely be “substantially less” than it was in the spring and summer outbreaks because of improved therapies and techniques that have saved people’s lives. Experts generally say there have been two “surges” of COVID-19 in the U.S. The first surge hit the northeast in the spring, and the second hit the south over the summer, peaking at about 73,000 cases per day in July – the highest levels so far recorded in the pandemic in the U.S. Afterward, new cases steadily dropped, before beginning a climb upwards in September. Now the U.S. is poised to surpass the previous daily high in new cases, experts say. … We’re seeing [cases] go up and in Europe and in many of those places, cases really did get down fairly low numbers first and now they’re skyrocketing again in many places. We’re seeing it in the US, and we’re seeing in other places as well and so we’re pretty much there and I think we have a long winter ahead.”

Covid Cases Extend ‘Troubling’ Surge, Signaling More Deaths – The number of daily Covid-19 cases is continuing its steady climb as temperatures begin to dip across the U.S., students return to classrooms and more people stay indoors where the virus spreads easily. While far fewer people are ending up hospitalized with the illness than during the pandemic’s surge in March and April, many more deaths are expected to be added to almost 218,000 already reported nationally as cases spike, experts said.“If you take a look from 30,000 feet, most states have rising case numbers,” with no downward trends to be seen, said William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee. “That is troubling as winter approaches.”Nationally, seven-day moving case averages have climbed to their highest in two months, while the number of currently hospitalized Covid-19 patients was the most since Aug. 27, according to Johns Hopkins University and Covid Tracking Project data.The seven-day average of deaths due to Covid-19 is still at about a third of peak levels in April, but a decline that took place over recent weeks appears to have stopped. Reported deaths often lag behind other numbers by several weeks, said Schaffner, so those numbers will likely follow the rising number of cases and hospitalizations. “All of us anticipate Covid is going to increase this winter,” he said.Hopes that warm summer weather might tamp down spread were frustrated by outbreaks in Sun Belt states. Since then, there’s been a surge of cases in the Upper Midwest and on college campuses across the country. The highest case rates per capita in the past seven days have been in North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin and Utah. South Dakota leads the nation in Covid-19 hospitalizations per capita.Those trends, and similar increases across Europe, are cause for alarm, said New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio. “It’s absolutely troubling to see how far these places are falling backwards,” he said Friday in an appearance on WNYC radio. “We can’t allow that to happen here.”While the initial surge of the virus hit densely populated urban areas, it’s now overwhelming rural regions, suburbs and small cities. Based on the seven-day rolling average of new cases, New Mexico, Missouri, South Dakota, Michigan and Illinois have seen the biggest increases in the past week, by percentage.

U.S. reports highest number of new coronavirus case since late July as total climbs above 8 million – The United States reported more than 69,000 new coronavirus cases on Friday, the highest daily count the nation has reported since late July. The U.S. has now reported more than 8 million Covid-19 cases and at least 218,600 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The surge in coronavirus cases comes as infectious disease experts warn the U.S. could face a “substantial third wave” of infections that will be further complicated this winter by the spread of seasonal influenza, which causes many similar symptoms to that of the coronavirus. As colder temperatures arrive in the Northern Hemisphere, more people will spend time indoors and likely fail to follow public health guidance, which creates a greater risk for the cornoavirus’ spread compared with outdoor activities, Dr. William Schaffner, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University, said. The U.S. is averaging roughly 55,000 new coronavirus cases every day, based on a weekly average to smooth out the reporting, a more than 16% increase compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. New cases were growing by 5% or more in 38 states as the number of infections in the Midwest continues to surge. “We need to pay more attention to this. We seem to forget that we’re making progress, we’re doing better, and then we kind of let go and we go back again,” Dr. Carlos del Rio, a professor at the Emory University School of Medicine who specializes in infectious diseases, told CNBC on Friday. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, has warned for weeks that the daily number of new cases has remained “unacceptably high” heading into the end of the year. However, it’s not too late to “vigorously apply” recommended public health measures, such as wearing a mask and maintaining a physical distance from others, Fauci told Johns Hopkins University on Thursday. When the U.S. descended from its first peak in April, the number of new coronavirus cases “got stuck” around 20,000 per day, Fauci said. Ideally, the U.S. would’ve reported less than 10,000 cases every day, he said. Then cases resurged. The number of daily new Covid-19 cases swelled to a high of nearly 70,000 cases a day before subsiding once again. However, new cases have since hovered between 40,000 to 50,000 cases a day. “You can’t enter into the cool months of the fall and the cold months of the winter with a high community infection baseline,” Fauci said. He added that the positivity rate, or the percentage of tests that are positive, is “going in the wrong direction” in more than 30 states.

U.S. Spike Pushes Cases to Most Since July: Virus Update – U.S. coronavirus cases increased by the most since late July, underscoring rising infections in most parts of the country less than three weeks before the election.Italy is considering the tightest restrictions since its spring lockdown ended as new curbs come into effect in Paris and London. The nation broke another record for daily cases amid the continuing surge of infections across Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed to Germans to stay home and meet with fewer people whether inside or outside. Key Developments:

• Global Tracker: Cases exceed 39 million; deaths top 1.1 million
• Europe cracks down with curbs in London and Paris
• Dr. Reddy’s and Russia to start Sputnik vaccine test
• Vaccine trial ailments raise questions about method
• Who’s succeeding against the coronavirus and why: QuickTake
• Covid surge puts Europe’s restaurant revival in peril

Italy reported 10,925 new coronavirus cases Saturday, the most in one day since the outbreak began; 47 people died compared with 55 Friday.The number of patients in intensive care beds rose by 67 to 705. Italy had over 4,000 people in intensive care units at the peak of the outbreak in April. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government may approve new restrictions on public life as early Saturday evening, according to government officials, who asked not to be named in line with their policy. U.S. cases increased by 69,276, the fourth consecutive day of rising numbers and the most since July 29, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg.The number, which reflects Friday data, is 9% higher than the previous day’s, underscoring rising Covid-19 cases in most parts of the country less than three weeks before the election.

As globe gallops into vaccine trials, insurers remain unfazed (Reuters) – The world is racing towards a vaccine in record time, stirring public concerns about safety to the extent that nine leading developers have felt compelled to issue a pledge to uphold scientific standards and testing rigour. Yet, while more than 40 experimental COVID-19 vaccines are being tested on humans, the insurance companies with decades of experience in assessing the risks of clinical trials don’t see anything to be unduly concerned about. Executives at insurer Allianz and brokers Gallagher and Marsh, among the leading players in clinical trials insurance, told Reuters that premiums had only marginally increased so far in the current pandemic. They argued there was little structural difference to trials carried out in the past, despite drugmakers around the world competing to shatter the fastest time in history for developing a vaccine, which stands at around four years. “Rates have been relatively stable. Even this year we have so far seen only moderate price increases on average, with higher price jumps for particularly exposed COVID-19 trials,” said Mark Piazzi, senior underwriter liability at Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS). This was echoed by David Briggs, managing director, life sciences practice at Gallagher, who said every trial was rated on its methods and the kinds of patients involved. A Gallagher said premiums in Britain, for example, started at about 5,000 pounds ($6,500) per trial. Total claims limits in policies were typically set at roughly $6-12 million, depending on the country’s rules, according to several insurance companies interviewed by Reuters. However part of the reason why premiums have not risen as sharply as some people might have expected is that claims from trial are generally uncommon, according to executives. This is because patients have often signed so-called informed consent agreements, they said.

Lesson not learned: Europe unprepared as 2nd virus wave hits | ABC27 —Europe’s second wave of coronavirus infections has struck well before flu season even started, reports Nicole Winfield. Intensive care wards are filling up again and bars are shutting down.And authorities say a widespread case of “COVID-fatigue” is making matters worse.Spain declared a state of emergency for Madrid amid increasing tensions between local and national authorities. Germany offered up soldiers to help with contact tracing in newly flaring hotspots. Italy mandated masks outdoors and warned that for the first time since it became the European epicenter of the pandemic, hospitals are filling up again. The Czech Republic’s “Farewell Covid” party in June, when thousands of Prague residents dined outdoors at a 500-meter-long table across the Charles Bridge to celebrate their victory over the virus, seems painfully premature now that the country has the highest per-capita infection rate on the continent. Epidemiologists and residents alike are pointing the finger at governments for having failed to seize on the summertime lull in cases to prepare adequately for the expected autumn onslaught, with testing and ICU staffing still critically short. In Rome this week, people waited in line for 8-10 hours to get tested, while front-line medics from Kiev to Paris found themselves once again pulling long, short-staffed shifts in overcrowded wards. “When the state of alarm was abandoned, it was time to invest in prevention, but that hasn’t been done,” lamented Margarita del Val, viral immunology expert with the Severo Ochoa Molecular Biology Center, part of Spain’s top research body, CSIC. “We are in the fall wave without having resolved the summer wave,” she told an online forum this week. Tensions are rising in cities where new restrictions have been re-imposed, with hundreds of Romanian hospitality workers protesting this week after Bucharest once again shut down the capital’s indoor restaurants, theaters and dance venues. “We were closed for six months, the restaurants didn’t work and yet the number of cases still rose,” said Moaghin Marius Ciprian, owner of the popular Grivita Pub n Grill who took part in the protest. “I’m not a specialist but I’m not stupid either. But from my point of view it’s not us that have the responsibility for this pandemic.”

Spain First EU Member To Top 900k COVID-19 Cases; France Revives ‘Health Emergency’ Order, Imposes Curfews: Live Update – The French government has just revived its public health state of emergency, which will resume at midnight on Friday.The report comes ahead of an evening address by President Emmanuel Macron where he is expected to announce a “night confinement” from 9pm to 6am, according to media reports. The curfew will apply to towns and cities on the highest level of alert.The move comes as the number of people in hospital with coronavirus in France has risen to more than 9,100 for the first time since the end of June.Like much of Western Europe, cases in France have soared in recent weeks… ….and deaths have followed hospitalizations higher. The news follows a wave of tightenng restrictions in countries across Europe after the Continent reported more than 700,000 cases in a single week, its highest weekly tally yet. Macron has, as expected, announced new curfews for cities and towns facing the highest COVID-19 alert levels. Macron said that the curfews would last for at least 4 weeks. It will apply to Paris and its suburbs, as well as Marseille, Lyon, Lille, Saint-Etienne, Rouen, Toulouse, Grenoble and Montpellier. The president’s speech comes after France reported 22,951 new cases on Wednesday, raising its total to 820,017.That’s compared with 52,000 cases reported in the US yesterday. However, France’s population is roughly one-fifth of the American population, meaning the per-capita rate of infection is much higher in France and Spain right now than in the US.Elsewhere in Europe, a partial lockdown announced by the Netherlands yesterday will come into force at 2200 local time. Earlier on Wednesday, Spain’s restive Catalonia region said that bars and restaurants would close for 15 days beginning Thursday.The Czech Republic, which has the highest rate of infection in Europe with 581.3 cases per 100,000 people, has shut schools and bars. Meanwhile, Spain on Wednesday became the first EU nation to top 900,000 COVID-19 cases. The latest official figures released by the Spanish Health Ministry on Wednesday showed the countrywide total is now 908,056, an increase of 11,979 against the figure released on Tuesday. Although, the ministry claims that only 5,104 of these infections occurred in the past 24 hours; figures released yesterday excluded an update from Andalusia for ‘technical reasons’.

Tripling of new coronavirus infections in Germany in only one month — On Sunday, the youngest COVID-19 victim in the city of Offenbach died age 51. Offenbach is currently the coronavirus hotspot in the federal state of Hesse. The sad death of a woman who could have lived for several more decades is a further indictment of a government policy whose unanimous credo is: the economy cannot tolerate a new lockdown. According to this credo, everything is currently being done at the federal, state and local level to keep the economy running even as infections of the deadly coronavirus rapidly rise. This exposes not only production, care, and transport workers, but also students, teachers, educators and their families, as well as all public transport workers, to mortal danger.At the same time, the rising number of cases – the inevitable result of this policy – is now being used to deploy the Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) at home. At the crisis summit in the Chancellor’s Office, Chancellor Angela Merkel decisively spoke out in favour of deploying the Bundeswehr in large cities to relieve the burden on health authorities. The self-created crisis thus serves as a pretext to accustom the population to the deployment of the military on Germany’s streets. The health authorities are being overloaded with cases. This, too, is a result of the policy of reopening the economy. During the lockdown, they had the aid of additional personnel from offices that had been shut down. Now, in many places, contact tracing can no longer be reliably carried out to identify and notify those who may have been exposed to the virus.

Coronavirus infections threaten Germany’s hospitals with overload – Experts warn that hospitals in Germany are reaching their limits of capacity due to the dramatic increase in coronavirus infections. While protective measures against the virus have been almost completely dismantled in recent months, the government has done nothing to prepare hospitals for the foreseeable increase in severe cases. It was necessary to prepare for a wave of seriously ill patients, explained Susanne Herold, head of the Infectiology Department at Giessen University Hospital, at a joint press conference with Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn (Christian Democratic Union, CDU). This would push hospitals to the limits of their capacity, especially in big cities, she added. On October 8, 487 COVID-19 patients were in intensive care in Germany, 237 of them requiring ventilation. One month earlier, on September 8, there were 230 cases, of which 130 were ventilated – an increase of 112 percent. According to Herold, a further significant increase and associated bottlenecks can be expected in the coming weeks. On Saturday alone, the number of new infections rose by 4,721, exceeding 4,000 for the third day in a row. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) had announced at the end of September that she expected 19,200 new infections per day by Christmas. The rising number of infections inevitably leads to an increasing number of hospital admissions. Social Democratic Party (SPD) health expert Karl Lauterbach expects a death rate of at least 1 percent in the future – i.e., hundreds of deaths per day.

Covid deaths in Europe, US exceed official tallies – Deaths directly or indirectly attributable to the first wave of Covid-19 infections across 21 wealthy nations earlier this year exceeded government tallies by 20 percent on average, according to a study published Wednesday. Looking at the period from mid-February through May 2020, researchers reported 206,000 more deaths than would have been expected without the pandemic. But only 167,148 were officially traced to the coronavirus that has swept the globe since the start of the year, infecting tens of millions. Many of the roughly 40,000 unaccounted-for deaths were due to Covid-19 but not listed as such, especially early in the pandemic when overwhelmed hospitals in some nations were unable to systematically test patients. Others could have resulted from disruptions in health care, such as missed treatments for cancer or lack of access to emergency services following a heart attack or accident. “The impacts of the pandemic on deaths goes beyond infection alone because it affects death in ‘indirect’ ways,” senior author Majid Ezzati, a professor of global environmental health at Imperial College London, told AFP. The excess mortality from all causes for the 15-week period varied sharply across nations examined. It was highest in Spain and England and Wales, which each saw 100 “extra” deaths per 100,000 people, about 37 percent above what would been expected absent the pandemic. England and Wales, Spain and Italy accounted for three-quarters of the total number of excess deaths, the study found. Belgium and Scotland were also hit hard. At the other end of the spectrum, countries that showed no detectable rise in deaths in the spring included Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland. The rest of the countries analysed — Austria, Switzerland, Portugal, France, the Netherlands and Sweden — fell somewhere in between. The 206,000 excess deaths were almost evenly divided between men and women, a finding at odds with death rates reported in hospitals, where a significantly higher proportion of victims were male.

The anti-lockdown crusade gains oxygen from this government’s ineptitude — If anyone still doubts that Brexit was our Trump moment, look at some of the same characters (Tory MPs, newspapers, even voters) who supported Brexit getting behind what has become an anti-lockdown crusade. I use the word crusade deliberately. Rather than religion it is ideology that drives most anti-lockdown proponents. That ideology is libertarian, although to borrow a phrase from Chris Dillow on mask phobia, this libertarianism is just solipsistic narcissism. What the crusade isn’t, for most of the anti-lockdown brigade, is evidence led. That is not to say that some scientists may genuinely believe that lockdowns are never worthwhile. Science shouldn’t be closed to heretical ideas, and there will always be scientists who put forward such ideas. Occasionally the heretical turns out to be true. So any defence of the need for lockdowns should be science based. Merely noting the correlation between Brexit and the anti-lockdown crusade, or the fact that an institute funded by the Koch brothers helped create the Barrington Declaration, is interesting politically but it is irrelevant to the science. The alternative proposed in the Barrington Declaration is herd immunity plus protection for the vulnerable. As Mark Reynolds from Wired notes, there is no mention of test and trace, or mask wearing, in the Declaration. This is because the authors want everyone except the vulnerable to catch the virus as soon as possible. On the vulnerable, everyone agrees that they should be protected, but the twist that herd immunity gives you is that if carers and others who meet the vulnerable are immune as a result of herd immunity they are not going to become infectious again and pass this on to the vulnerable. However the Declaration glosses over the rather critical problem in the interim before care workers have caught COVID. As I note below, without lockdowns it is likely to be at least 6 months before we reach herd immunity. That apart, their proposal for the vulnerable is identical to what the government should have been doing as part of its lockdown strategy. The other point they gloss over is that there is no neat dividing line between the vulnerable and non-vulnerable. The risk of death increases sharply with age, but it doesn’t start once you are retired. There is a significant risk from death if you are in your 50s and male, data from Spain suggests. Furthermore, we know very little about ‘long COVID’: those who are suffering from severe effects from COVID long after the virus has left.

UK’s local lockdown system in disarray as COVID-19 cases surge out of control – The Johnson government’s ineffectual three-tier localised Covid-19 intervention plan is falling apart as coronavirus cases rocket in Britain and ICU wards are already beginning to be overwhelmed. On Thursday, Labour Party Major of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham said that he and the others leaders of the region would not agree to the area being placed in the “Very High Risk” category. Johnson responded Friday at a Downing Street press conference that the situation in Manchester was “grave”, with COVID-19 cases doubling in the last nine days and a high infection rate of 690 per 100,000 among 16 – 29 year olds. The number of COVID patients in Manchester ICU beds was already 40 percent over what it was at the height of the first wave. If Burnham and other leaders in Greater Manchester did not accept being moved into Tier 3, Johnson threatened that he would impose the measures, as “The national government must reserve the right to step in and do what is necessary.” To put further pressure on Burnham, et al, Johnson announced that local leaders in Lancashire, also in the North West, had agreed to go under Tier 3 restrictions. Earlier the government reported another 15,650 positive coronavirus infections across the UK and 136 deaths. But even this and the other high figures announced each day this week – with almost 20,000 cases on Wednesday – are far lower than reliable estimates. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that daily coronavirus cases in England alone have increased to around 27,900 between October 2 and October 8. Overall cases had risen from an estimated 224,400 to 336,500 in a week. The ONS said that estimated daily positive tests in England were increasing at a rate of almost 10,000 each week. Earlier this week the Cambridge University’s Medical Research Council (MRC) biostatistics unit announced, “Our current estimate of the number of infections occurring each day across England is 47,000.” The number infected could be as high as 74,900 per day. The MRC concluded, “We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to be between 240 and 690 on 26 October.” As the Tier legislation was passed in parliament Tuesday, the government made clear that the Greater Manchester region, with a population of 3 million, could expect to be placed into the “Very High” Tier level imminently, with the adjacent Liverpool city region already under the restrictions. Tier Three means that pubs and bars must close, and household mixing bans are imposed.

Paris Under Curfew: Europe Reacts As Countries See Highest-Ever Coronavirus Numbers – Coronavirus restrictions are taking effect in the Netherlands, the U.K., the Czech Republic and other parts of Europe on Wednesday as nations try to reverse an alarming wave in new cases. The continent is now seeing more new coronavirus cases – an average of 100,000 daily – than at any other time during the pandemic. Bars, restaurants and schools are being shut down or sharply limited, and officials are working to bolster hospital capacity, to accommodate an expected influx of new COVID-19 patients. Numbers that showed signs of taking off in late August and September are now skyrocketing. Europe reported more than 700,000 new coronavirus cases last week – a surge representing a 36% weekly increase, as NPR’s Reese Oxner recently reported. Europe’s infection rate “has been increasing for 77 days,” the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said in its most recent weekly report for the European Economic Area and the United Kingdom. Here, a sampling of the situation in Europe:

• In France, President Emmanuel Macron used a nationally televised interviewWednesday night to announce the start of nightly curfews in Paris and eight other densely populated areas in an effort to control the coronavirus in what are deemed “health emergency zones.”
• Italy reported its largest one-day total of new cases Wednesday, with more than 7,300 – easily surpassing the terrible heights the country reached in March. The rise comes one day after Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte signed a decree putting new limits on gatherings, sports and school activities. Bars and restaurants are still allowed to operate until midnight, but only if they offer table service.
• In Spain, the regional government of Catalonia is ordering all bars and restaurants to close their on-premises operations, saying they can only sell to-go items for the next 15 days. Shopping areas, theaters and gyms will have to operate at reduced capacity. It’s the only way to avert an even deeper shutdown, officials say.
• The Czech Republic, hard hit by the new coronavirus wave, has closed schools as of Wednesday. Restaurants and bars are closed for everything except takeout orders – and they can only operate until 8 p.m., according to Radio Prague International.
• The Netherlands is enacting a partial lockdown because of a rise in new cases. The government declared on Tuesday, “The coronavirus has been given too much room to spread again.” The restrictions close all food and drink establishments, except for carryout orders. No more than four people from different households can gather, indoors or outside.

Coronavirus live news: Russia reports record daily cases and deaths; Netherlands set for new restrictions – Global coronavirus cases will top the 40 million mark sometime this weekend, and the number of new cases is approaching 400,000 a day. The grim progression of the pandemic can be charted in these numbers: new cases first reached 100,000 a day on May 20; they hit 200,000 a day on July 1; 300,000 a day on September 4, and reached 398,609 on Wednesday, October 14. There are already more than 1.1 million deaths. The daily number of fatalities has also started turning upward with a seven-day moving average of 5,200 deaths. Two days running, the number of deaths has exceeded 6,000. The current projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation place estimates of global COVID-19 deaths at 1.9 million by January 1, 2021. Whereas during the summer, Brazil, India and the United States were at the center of the pandemic, with the turn to fall and colder temperatures in the northern hemisphere, where the majority of the world’s population lives, cases across Russia, Europe and North America have seen a dramatic upward shift, as predicted by modelers and epidemiologists. On Thursday, the United States, with 65,000 new cases of COVID-19, surpassed India for the first time in several weeks. Twenty-six states have posted more than 1,000 new cases. Wisconsin shattered its previous high with more than 3,700 new cases. Though the Midwest and rural communities face the brunt of the current surge, cases are trending upward in 44 states. Nearly 900 people died yesterday. Caitlin Rivers, a Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist, painted a bleak picture. “We are headed in the wrong direction, and that’s reflected not only in the number of new cases but also in test positivity and the number of hospitalizations. Together, I think these three indicators give a very clear picture that we see increased transmission in communities across the country.” Hospitalization across the country for COVID-19 stands at 37,308, a 30 percent rise since the last week of September.

• Russia reports record daily coronavirus cases and deaths. On Tuesday, the country’s coronavirus crisis centre said 13,868 new cases had been reported in the past 24 hours, pushing the overall number of infections to 1,326,178.
• Russia’s regulator has granted approval for a trial of its controversial Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine on people aged over 60. In August Russia approved the vaccine for use after less than two months of human testing, including a dose administered to one of Vladimir Putin’s daughters.
• Hospitals in Paris could have up to 90% of intensive care beds packed with Covid-19 patients as soon as next week. The warning came from the healthcare system’s chief as France braces for new measures to slow a surge in cases.
• Dutch bars and restaurants ordered to close to stem surge in coronavirus cases. The Dutch government announced the new round of measures on Tuesday as the number of cases in this country surged in recent weeks to a daily record of nearly 7,400.
• Italy announces new restrictions. Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte on Tuesday imposed new restrictions on gatherings, restaurants, sports and school activities in an attempt to slow a surge in novel coronavirus infections.
• Ireland’s government offered more support on Tuesday to those hit hardest by some of Europe’s toughest Covid-19 restrictions. The budget stimulus package was described as “unprecedented in the history of the state” by Reuters.
• The Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki tested negative for Covid-19. Morawiecki went into quarantine after he had contact on Friday with a person who has tested positive. A government spokesman said the prime minister had no coronavirus symptoms and continued to fulfil his duties.
• UK reports 143 new deaths from Covid-19, highest daily figure since June. This brings the UK death total to 43,018. There had been a further 17,234 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK on Tuesday. It brings the total number of cases in the UK to 634,920.
• Keir Starmer called on the UK government to impose a national circuit breaker lockdown of at least two weeks in England as the death toll from Covid-19 soared to a four-month high. In a significant escalation, the Labour leader said the prime ministerBoris Johnson had “lost control of the virus” and must take urgent action to impose a near-total shutdown across the country over the October half-term. Full story here.
• Cristiano Ronaldo has tested positive for coronavirus. The 35-year-old is said to be “doing well, without symptoms, and in isolation”, with no further positive tests reported in the squad before Portugal’s Nations League match against Sweden on Wednesday.

Coronavirus: France reports more than 30,000 new infections – France has reported a large jump in new Covid-19 cases ahead of a night-time curfew being imposed on Paris and eight other cities on Saturday. A further 30,621 infections were confirmed on Thursday, up from 22,591 the day before. The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that tough restrictions are “absolutely necessary” to save lives. Millions in Europe have been told they must live under strict new measures as governments battle a second wave. From Saturday, socialising indoors will be banned in London, as the UK capital and other areas of England will be put under a higher Covid alert. As well as France, Italy, Poland and Germany all recorded their largest daily rise in new cases on Thursday since mass testing began. Russia recorded its highest number of daily fatalities since the start of the epidemic with 286 people reported to have died from the virus. The WHO urged European governments “to step up” and take action as the continent passed a threshold of 1,000 deaths reported daily. New restrictions were announced on Wednesday by President Emmanuel Macron to combat the soaring infection rate across France. Residents of Paris, its suburbs and eight other cities including Marseille and Lyon will not be able to leave their homes without “valid” reason between 21:00 and 06:00 from Saturday for at least four weeks. Mr Macron said he aimed to reduce the daily rise in cases to 3,000. Why are infections rising again in US? Prime Minister Jean Castex said police would be deployed to enforce the curfew, but people will still be allowed to leave for work or to visit hospital or the pharmacy. On Thursday, French police raided the homes of senior government and health officials as part of an investigation into their handling of the pandemic. The government has faced criticism over shortages of equipment and slow response times.

Dutch Woman Dies After Being Reinfected With COVID-19, Global Cases See Biggest Weekly Jump Yet: Live Updates – The FT reported, citing a scientific paper published in the journal Clinical Infectious Disease, that an 89-year-old Dutch woman has become the first person reinfected with COVID-19 to succumb to the virus. According to the paper, the patient first arrived at a hospital in the Netherlands complaining of fatigue. She tested positive, and was later discharged. But 59 days later, she returned to the hospital with even more serious conditions, and tested positive for COVID-19 again. She died shortly after.The news follows last night’s exclusive WSJ report documenting the first case of a patient who was reinfected with COVID-19 in the US. We’ll have more on that later. The report in the Lancet cited by WSJ also shows that the second bout of COVID-19 is often more severe in reinfected patients.Finally, after announcing a slate of new restrictions last week, the Italian government has on Tuesday set out the tighter restrictions on social gatherings, restaurants and school activities to stop the spread of the virus after the average number of daily cases doubled over the course of a week. Finally, the WHO confirmed yesterday that global COVID-19 cases set a new record last week. Though it has slowed somewhat since September, India’s outbreak was one of the biggest contributors to this trend, along with Europe, the US and Brazil. The UAE has reported its highest daily COVID-19 infection tally, with 1,315 new cases in the tiny Middle Eastern nation, really a collection of principalities. Tuesday’s numbers bring the UAE’s ally to 108,608, with just 448 deaths since the start of the pandemic.Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki entered quarantine after exposure to someone who had tested positive for coronavirus, as the second wave of the pandemic rages in central and eastern Europe.The Netherlands just reported another 7,378 new cases, its latest daily record, the second daily record in a row, and 500 more from yesterday’s number. The country also suffered another 35 new deaths. The record follows news that the first confirmed death from a patient reinfected with COVID-19 had been recorded in the Netherlands. Though the Netherlands’ rate hasn’t risen quite as quickly as Italy, which has seen daily case numbers double over the past week, the Dutch numbers are up more than 50% from the prior week as Europe’s second wave explodes across the continent. Meanwhile, another 100+ new patients were admitted to Dutch hospitals, bringing the total actively receiving treatment to 1,410, more than 1,400 for the first time since May 14, according to government data. 277 of those patients were being treated in the ICU, with 25 of those newly arrived overnight.

Danish government orders death of a million minks due to COVID-19 outbreak – The Danish government has ordered mink farms to cull over 1 million animals due to reported outbreaks of coronavirus among the species, prized for its fur. The outbreak among the mink population was detected in late June after a COVID-19 patient was linked to a mink farm in North Jutland, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report. As of this month, mink on around 60 farms in North Jutland have tested positive for coronavirus, and an additional 46 farms are under suspicion, Mogens Jensen, the Danish minister of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, told CNN. “We have continuously launched initiatives to manage and contain the spread of infection,” Jensen said in a statement. “In view of the recent large increase, we must unfortunately state that it has not been sufficient to prevent continued spread of infection among the North Jutland mink herds,” he added. The order mandates that mink farms within five miles of a farm or herd that is confirmed or suspected to be infected with the coronavirus must be culled. “It is a difficult decision that the government has made, but we fully support it,” said Tage Pedersen, chairman of the Danish Mink Breeders Association. In Utah, cases of COVID-19 have also been detected among mink farm populations, with state officials reporting that over 10,000 animals have died from the virus. While officials in Utah said, “research indicates there hasn’t been a spread from mink to humans,” state veterinarian Dean Taylor noted the mink suffered from respiratory issues, similar to human symptoms. The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration and the Danish Emergency Management Agency will handle the process of culling mink in Denmark.

COVID-19 outbreak exposes Sri Lankan government claims that pandemic is under control – Sri Lankan health authorities reported yesterday that the number of coronavirus patients had doubled in the week since October 4, climbing to a total of 4,702 and 13 deaths. All indications point to a surge of COVID-19 throughout the country, with infections reported in 22 of the country’s 24 districts. The latest figures puncture President Gotabhaya Rajapakse’s boasts that his administration, unlike governments in other countries, has controlled the virus. The increased number of infections in Sri Lanka has occurred as the number of cases globally exceeds 37 million and the death toll surpasses one million. The previous, relatively low number of COVID-19 infections in Sri Lanka is mainly the result of the government’s refusal to carry out systematic testing. Medical experts have demanded that there should be at least 5,000 tests per day. On October 4, a Brandix Fast Fashion worker from the company’s Minuwangoda plant tested COVID-19 positive at Gampaha Hospital. Management only allowed the female worker to enter the hospital after she insisted that she was sick and could not work without treatment. Health authorities began testing other workers at the plant, discovering that more than 1,000 out of 1,400 employed at the plant and their associates were infected. Some workers have been hospitalised and others sent to quarantine centres. Brandix is one of Sri Lanka’s largest apparel manufacturers, with factories in multiple countries. It employs about 50,000 workers at different plants across the country. The company produces apparel for US and European retail giants, including Gap, Victoria’s Secret and Marks & Spencer.

Brazil’s COVID-19 deaths pass 150,000 mark amid back-to-school campaign – Last Saturday, Brazil’s recorded COVID-19 deaths passed the 150,000 mark, seven months after the beginning of the pandemic in the country. The grim milestone was announced by the press consortium created in June by the largest Brazilian newspapers after the government of Brazil’s fascist President Jair Bolsonaro tried to censor data related to the pandemic as part of his government’s homicidal effort to reopen the economy.Brazil has now also recorded more than 5 million cases, ranking third in the world in number of coronavirus cases behind the US and India, and second in number of deaths, trailing only the US. The country also ranks third in deaths per million inhabitants, behind Peru and Belgium. However, four of Brazil’s 27 states have a higher mortality rate than Peru, with more than a thousand deaths per million people. Although in recent weeks Brazil has registered a drop in the number of cases and deaths after months on a plateau of more than a thousand deaths daily, the pandemic is still out of control in the country. Commenting on the Brazilian numbers on Monday, Michael Ryan, emergencies director at the World Health Organization, warned that the trend of fewer cases is occurring with “very, very high” numbers. Pointing to what is happening in Europe, he also warned: “the fact that the pandemic is in decline does not mean that it will not get worse again.” Showing his usual contempt for people’s lives, Bolsonaro said on Wednesday that the pandemic had been “exaggerated,” while he again attacked the limited isolation measures implemented by governors, which are now being withdrawn. In reality, the numbers of cases and deaths are grossly underestimated. Brazil has been one of the countries with the least testing in the world throughout the pandemic, with a test rate of less than one per thousand inhabitants, little more than Libya, a country devastated by a decade of war. Projections show that if isolation measures are abandoned, the country would have 3 million more people infected in 30 days. An estimate by the Health Intelligence Laboratory of the University of São Paulo’s School of Medicine also showed that Brazil’s real number of cases is over 18 million, and COVID-19 deaths, over 200,000.

Global surge in COVID-19 cases as governments abandon efforts to contain the pandemic Global coronavirus cases will top the 40 million mark sometime this weekend, and the number of new cases is approaching 400,000 a day. The grim progression of the pandemic -can be charted in these numbers: new cases first reached 100,000 a day on May 20; they hit 200,000 a day on July 1; 300,000 a day on September 4, and reached 398,609 on Wednesday, October 14. There are already more than 1.1 million deaths. The daily number of fatalities has also started turning upward with a seven-day moving average of 5,200 deaths. Two days running, the number of deaths has exceeded 6,000. The current projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation place estimates of global COVID-19 deaths at 1.9 million by January 1, 2021. Whereas during the summer, Brazil, India and the United States were at the center of the pandemic, with the turn to fall and colder temperatures in the northern hemisphere, where the majority of the world’s population lives, cases across Russia, Europe and North America have seen a dramatic upward shift, as predicted by modelers and epidemiologists. On Thursday, the United States, with 65,000 new cases of COVID-19, surpassed India for the first time in several weeks. Twenty-six states have posted more than 1,000 new cases. Wisconsin shattered its previous high with more than 3,700 new cases. Though the Midwest and rural communities face the brunt of the current surge, cases are trending upward in 44 states. Nearly 900 people died yesterday. Caitlin Rivers, a Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist, painted a bleak picture. “We are headed in the wrong direction, and that’s reflected not only in the number of new cases but also in test positivity and the number of hospitalizations. Together, I think these three indicators give a very clear picture that we see increased transmission in communities across the country.” Hospitalization across the country for COVID-19 stands at 37,308, a 30 percent rise since the last week of September. The surge across Europe has been catastrophic, with the United Kingdom, France and Spain each having surpassed the United States on a per capita basis as Germany begins to see a similar steep climb. Some 35 percent of France’s outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in schools or universities. More than a third of UK outbreaks in September were in educational settings. The incidence rate of COVID-19 among children and youth since returning to school has been astronomical.

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