Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 17October 2020

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

News posted last week about economic effects related to the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some articles are summarized here. We cover the latest economic data, especially GDP, the jobs report, banking oversight, mortgage delinquencies, local schools & universities, plus coronavirus relief (right now it appears Trump is closer to the Democrats than to the GOP Senate). There’s more news on Trump and his team getting infected. The bulk of the news is from the U.S., with a few articles (but more than recent weeks) from overseas at the end. (Picture below is morning rush hour in downtown Chicago, 20 March 2020.) News items about epidemiology and other medical news for the virus are reported in a companion article.

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Fed Vice Chair Makes “Shocking” Admission: Fed May Never Be Able To Stop Manipulating The Market – Yesterday, San Fran Fed president Mary Daly made a stunning admission: just in case there was any confusion, the Fed knows that it has – and continues to blow – an asset bubble making “a few” who own stocks uber-rich, but the economy is now so reliant on the Fed liquidity firehose that the moment the Fed threatened to pop this bubble, which some have estimated to be around $90 trillion in liquidity, would result in economic devastation and leave millions without a job. “I am not willing to trade millions of jobs for people who need a ladder rung up in order to keep the stock market from going up for a few who have those holdings,” Daly said while answering questions following a speech on – what else – racial inequality at a virtual event Tuesday hosted by the University of California, Irvine. Well, it appears that the Fed makes dramatic revelations in two, because just one day after Daly admitted that the Fed is trapped, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles, made an even more shocking – or rather “shocking” as we have said for the past decade that this is the case – admission, when he said that the Treasury market is now so large that the U.S. central bank may have to continue to be involved to keep it functioning properly. That’s right: following its decade-long attempt to “stimulate inflation” by cutting rates, something which we showed is deflationary, and which the Fed did by manipulating bond yields through ZIRP and QE, the Fed only now realizes that if the central bank steps away, everything will crash and yields will explode higher, similar to what happened to repo rates last September when clearing rates briefly hit 10% in a market that was seen as Fed-less. In short, there is no longer a market, there are only centrally-planned transactions which can only happen with the explicit blessing of the Fed… which can pull its backstops on a whim and crash trillions in assets in a nanosecond. Speaking at a virtual panel conversation on the future of central banking hosted by the Hoover Institute, Quarles said that “it may be that there is a simple macro fact that the Treasury market being so much larger than it was even a few years ago, much larger than it was a decade ago and now really much larger than it was even a few years ago, that the sheer volume there may have outpaced the ability of the private market infrastructure to support stress of any sort there.”

Fed’s Rosengren Says Pre-Pandemic Risk Taking Will Likely Slow Recovery Effort – WSJ – Federal Reserve Bank of Boston leader Eric Rosengren on Thursday renewed his longstanding concern that long periods of very low interest rates can exacerbate economic troubles when a downturn arrives. Mr. Rosengren’s remarks didn’t appear to be a direct criticism of the policies now in place at the Fed as it seeks to help the economy navigate the coronavirus pandemic. The central bank has set its short-term target rate at near zero levels and has signaled it expects it to stay there until at least 2023, as the economy works…

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy – These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment – some of the sectors that will recover very slowly. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average. This data is as of Oct 11th. The seven day average is down 65% from last year (35% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 10, 2020. This data is “a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year.” The 7 day average for New York is still off 59% YoY, and down 18% in Florida. There was a surge in restaurant dining around Labor Day – hopefully mostly outdoor dining. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales have picked up over the last few weeks, and were at $11 million last week (compared to usually around $200 million per week in the early Fall). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Hotel occupancy is currently down 29.6% year-over-year. There was some recent boost from natural disasters – perhaps 1 or 2 percentage points total based on previous disasters – but so far there has been little business travel pickup that usually happens in the Fall. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of October 2nd, gasoline supplied was only off about 6.0% YoY (about 94.0% of normal). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities.” This is just a general guide – people that regularly commute probably don’t ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through October 10th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is still only about 57% of the January level. It is at 50% in Los Angeles, and 59% in Houston. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This data is through Friday, October 9th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

Business Cycle Indicators, 16 October – Menzie Chinn – With the release of industrial production figures today, the deceleration in economic activity continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for October as of 10/16 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (10/1 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations. Industrial production fell -0.6% m/m vs. Bloomberg consensus of +0.5%. The series was revised upward in August, so the level of industrial production was still higher than the earlier estimate for August. Nonetheless, if it’s the trajectory that’s of interest, then this is not good news. Note that this decline is not driven by mining and/or utilities output decline. Manufacturing production fell -0.3 m/m vs. consensus of +0.7%. Bloomberg consensus as of today for the October employment figures is 850K new jobs (as shown in blue square in Figure 1). I wonder if this number takes into account the surge in Covid-19 around the country. If one looks at the Covid-19 hospitalization figures, one has to wonder if employment growth – such as it is – can be maintained. Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark teal, left log scale), Bloomberg consensus for October as of 10/16 (light blue square) and Covid-19 hospitalizations through 10/15 (brown, right log scale). October hospitalizations log linearly interpolated from first half of October. Source: BLS, Covid Tracking Project accessed 10/16, and author’s calculations.

Q3 GDP Forecasts – From Merrill Lynch:We are tracking 33% qoq saar for 3Q GDP growth. [Oct 16 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: We boosted our Q3 consumption growth estimate due to the stronger-than-expected September retail sales report. However, this morning’s utilities and goods production data were softer than our previous assumptions. On net, we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +35% (qoq ar). [Oct 16 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report; The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 13.8% for 2020:Q3 and 3.6% for 2020:Q4. [Oct 16 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 35.2 percent on October 16, unchanged from October 9 after rounding. After this week’s data releases by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 48.4 percent to 47.0 percent was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 37.0 percent to 37.3 percent. [Oct 16 estimate]It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 35% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, is about 7.8% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 3.3% from Q4 2019.The following graph illustrates this decline.This graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).This graph is through Q2 2020, and real GDP is currently off 10.2% from the previous peak. For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.The black arrow shows what a 35% annualized increase in real GDP would look like in Q3. Even with a 35% annualized increase (about 7.8% QoQ), real GDP will be down about 3.3% from Q4 2019; a slightly smaller decline in real GDP than at the depth of the Great Recession.

U.S. Budget Gap Tripled in Fiscal 2020 as Government Battled Pandemic – WSJ – The U.S. budget deficit tripled in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Thursday, as the government battled a global pandemic that plunged the country into a recession.The budget gap in the fiscal year 2020 widened to $3.1 trillion from $984 billion a year earlier, the nonpartisan CBO said. As a share of economic output, the annual deficit reached 15.2%, the largest since 1945, when the country was financing massive military operations to help end World War II.A surge of federal spending to combat the coronavirus and cushion the U.S. economy, coupled with a drop-off in federal revenues amid widespread shutdowns and layoffs, contributed to the widening deficit this year, which in turn might have helped drive the national debt to more than 100% of gross domestic product.Receipts totaled $3.4 trillion, a 1% decline from the previous year, with much of the drop occurring since March, when the virus began spreading across the country. Outlays hit $6.5 trillion, a 47% increase, as the government ramped up spending on emergency loans for small businesses, enhanced jobless benefits and stimulus payments for American households. Since March, Congress has approved roughly $4 trillion in new spending, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget – including money for vaccine research and virus testing, extra weekly jobless benefits, one-time $1,200 stimulus payments to households, aid to states and cities, and payroll grants for small businesses. The unprecedented government stimulus has helped keep households and businesses afloat during the initial months of the recession that began in February, boosting incomes and supporting consumer spending. From April through September, federal spending was twice as high as it was in the same six-month period a year earlier. Unemployment benefits soared to $457 billion in the second half of fiscal 2020 from $14 billion during the same period of the previous year. Spending for Medicaid, Social Security and nutrition assistance also climbed.In the first half of fiscal 2020, federal income rose 6%, thanks to a strong economy and low unemployment. From April through October, however, receipts fell 7% as the virus brought economic activity to a standstill, businesses shut down and more than 20 million workers lost their jobs.Individual income and payroll taxes fell 7% in the second half of the year, while corporate tax receipts declined 21%, in part due to measures Congress enacted to help reduce taxes this year for businesses facing revenue losses.Federal debt in the fiscal year 2020 likely hit 102%, exceeding the size of the economy for the full fiscal year for the first time in more than 70 years, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. By another measure, the debt already exceeded the size of the economy during the April through June quarter, when it hit 105.2%, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis show.

U.S. Budget Gap Tripled to Record $3.1 Trillion in Fiscal 2020, Treasury Says – WSJ – The U.S. budget deficit tripled to a record $3.1 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 as the government battled the global coronavirus pandemic that plunged the country into a recession, has taken more than 217,000 American lives and thrown millions out of work.As a share of economic output, the budget gap in fiscal year 2020 hit roughly 16.1%, the largest since 1945, the Treasury Department said Friday, when the country was financing massive military operations to help end World War II.Federal debt totaled 102% of gross domestic product, the first time it has exceeded the size of the economy for the full fiscal year in more than 70 years, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. That has put the U.S. in a league with Greece, Italy and Japan among the most heavily indebted nations.Senate Republicans, citing the mounting debt, have balked at a White House proposal to spend another $1.88 trillion and House Democrats’ $2.2 trillion bill to add to aid to counter the steepest economic downturn since the Great Depression. Many economists and Federal Reserve officials argue restoring growth should be the first priority, and that worries about closing the deficit can come later.”Unprecedented times call for unprecedented deficits,” said William Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a centrist Washington think tank. “Today’s deficit figure is the result of six months of fighting the pandemic and its economic fallout.”The International Monetary Fund this week saidglobal public debt is likely to approach a record 100% of output but urged policy makers to maintain spending to help vulnerable groups and promote a strong recovery. The IMF said the global recession won’t be as deep as it projected earlier, thanks in part to massive deficit spending by advanced and major emerging-market economies.”The IMF’s message from these meetings is clear: Avoid premature withdrawal – pulling the plug too soon risks serious, self-inflicted harm,” Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters Thursday as finance ministers and central bankers assembled virtually for the annual meetings of the fund and the World Bank.To cover the budget shortfall, the Treasury has sold a flood of new securities, boosting total government debt held by the public to $21 trillion, a 25% increase from the beginning of the fiscal year. Investors have shown scant worry about the deficit. U.S. government bonds were little changed Friday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticking up to 0.743% from 0.730% Thursday, according to Tradeweb. Yields rose in the morning following better-than-expected retail sales data but fell after a disappointing report on industrial production.

Trump, Pelosi play blame game on impasse over coronavirus relief A war of words broke out Sunday on who was to blame for the stalemate on another coronavirus relief package that both political parties say they want. President Donald Trump on Sunday said Republicans want a deal but that Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a hurdle to reaching one. For her part, Pelosi told her colleagues that the latest Republican $1.8 trillion offer was “wholly insufficient.” There was no sign of talks between Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Sunday. White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said the talks were not dead. Kudlow said there might be talks Sunday but if not, then “certainly this week.” The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that “several” Senate Republicans complained about the latest White House offer in a call with White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Mnuchin. Kudlow waved away concern about GOP defections. “If we can get this thing settled on the Democrat side, we will get it settled on the Republican side,” he said. “The Ds are holding this up,” Kudlow added. House Democrats have approved a $2.2 trillion plan. Mnuchin and Pelosi last talked on Friday.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week urged lawmakers to pass a broad relief measure. In her letter, Pelosi said there was still disagreement over the health care portion of the legislation.Republicans don’t like the language in the White House offer that expands the Affordable Care Act subsidies for people who have lost jobs during the pandemic.

Pelosi, citing ‘leverage’ over Trump, holds strong to $2.2T in COVID-19 aid — Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Tuesday shot down entreaties from some Democrats to cut a $1.8 trillion deal with the White House on coronavirus relief, arguing that President Trump’s pleas for Congress to “go big” have given her leverage to hold out for more aid. “I appreciate the, shall we say, a couple people saying, ‘Take it, take it, take it,'” Pelosi said in a phone conference with Democrats, according to source on the call. “Take it? Take it? Even the president is saying, ‘Go big or go home.'” Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have been in near-daily talks in search of an elusive stimulus agreement, even as the prospect of a deal before the Nov. 3 elections has grown dimmer by the day.Mnuchin last week had offered a $1.8 trillion package, up from an earlier proposal of $1.6 trillion, prompting a growing number of House Democrats to urge the Speaker to come down from her $2.2 trillion proposal, which the House approved on Oct. 1. That figure was already a reduction from the Democrats’ $3.4 trillion HEROES Act, passed by the House in May. Most of those pleas have come from the Democrats’ moderate wing, particularly from vulnerable lawmakers facing tough reelections next month. Yet even a few liberals have emerged in recent days to press Pelosi to accept the White House’s latest offer. “Dems can’t wait for the perfect deal,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a prominent member of the Progressive Caucus, tweeted Tuesday. “We have a moral obligation to get folks relief, now.”

McConnell to force vote on ‘targeted’ coronavirus relief bill next week – Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that the Senate will vote on a “targeted” coronavirus relief bill next week that will include more aid for small businesses hit hard by the fallout of the pandemic. The Senate is out of town this week after an outbreak of the coronavirus among its members but will return to Washington, D.C., on Monday. “When the full Senate returns on October 19th, our first order of business will be voting again on targeted relief for American workers, including new funding for the PPP,” McConnell said in a statement, referring to the Paycheck Protection Program. McConnell, during a stop in Kentucky on Tuesday, said the bill would be “highly targeted” and authorize around $500 billion. The bill, he noted, would include money for schools, hospitals and protections from coronavirus-related lawsuits. “I made some news today. We’re going to go back to the floor next week again with a proposal more narrowly targeted with a significant amount of money. I can remember when a half a trillion dollars … was real money,” McConnell said in Kentucky. “I’m going to try next week one more time. … I want to give our friends on the other side one more chance,” he added. McConnell’s decision to offer his own bill comes as several of his vulnerable incumbents have shown they are eager to make progress on stimulus legislation. Senate Republicans panned the latest $1.8 trillion offer from the White House, which was made as part of negotiations with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). President Trump doubled down on a higher price tag for any agreement, tweeting on Tuesday: “STIMULUS! Go big or go home!!!” Republicans initially offered a $1.1 trillion coronavirus package in July, but McConnell warned at the time that it could garner up to 20 “no” votes and was never given a vote on the Senate floor. Fifty-two GOP senators then voted for an approximately $500 billion bill, but it was blocked by Democrats. McConnell was quizzed on the coronavirus relief negotiations during a debate with Democratic opponent Amy McGrath on Monday night where he blamed Democrats for the inability to get a deal on a sweeping package that would offer aid to Americans and businesses. Pelosi has “been demanding we throw $3 trillion at this problem in a way that is largely in many respects unrelated to solving the problem,” McConnell said during the debate, adding that Pelosi “has been totally unreasonable and not interested in getting an outcome.”

Nancy Pelosi, Under Fire From Left and Right, Is Losing the PR Battle Over Stimulus – House Speaker Nancy Pelsoi is losing the PR battle over stimulus as she faces pressure from the left and right to capitulate to Republicans’ demand for a smaller price tag. As the months-long stimulus stalemate continues, progressive Democrats on Wednesday urged their congressional leader to pass another relief package “now” to help the millions of Americans struggling to pay rent and afford food amid the pandemic. Their calls further adds to the pressure Pelosi has faced from moderate Democrats in recent weeks to settle for a deal with Republicans and the Trump administration. Pelosi rejected the most recent White House $1.8 trillion offer this week, saying it was “insufficient in meeting families’ needs.” While file-and-rank Republicans also rejected the deal that they considered too expensive and out of touch with conservative values, it was Pelosi who faced the media’s ire. CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer grilled Pelosi on Tuesday night about her refusal to accept Trump’s offer. Blitzer noted that Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna of California and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang had both recently said Americans cannot wait until February for economic relief. “They are not negotiating this situation,” Pelosi responded. “They have no idea of the particulars, they have no idea of what the language is here.” The contentious interview ended with Pelosi calling Blitzer a Republican apologist. “You really don’t know what you’re talking about,” she said angrily, before insisting that Republicans should accept the Democrat’s proposal if they want to help the American people. Hours before the interview, Pelosi resisted calls from within her own party to settle for $1.8 trillion during a phone conversation with Democrats. She invoked President Donald Trump‘s plea for Congress to “go big” on another stimulus package as justification for her decision to hold out for a larger amount. “Take it? Take it? Even the president is saying, ‘Go big or go home,'” the Democratic leader said. “We really need to have an agreement, but we cannot have an agreement by just folding.” Americans blamed Republicans more for the stimulus stalemate in September, but the latest poll on the issue, released Thursday, showed that the tide is turning against Democrats. Thirty-five percent of voters surveyed by Morning Consult between October 6 and 7 said Democrats were responsible for the inability to pass further relief and 32 percent placed the blame on Trump. Just 23 percent pointed to Republicans. Polling indicates that the last party to reject a stimulus offer is often also stuck with the blame. The survey was taken shortly after the Trump administration offered $1.6 trillion, but Pelosi declined to budge from her then $2.2 trillion position. Last month, Democrats also blocked a roughly $500 billion Republican plan in the Senate. With just weeks left until Election Day, Pelosi’s strategy to stand firm on her demand for a larger and broader relief package carries risks. As negotiations with the Trump administration continues to stall, Republican leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday said the Senate will vote on a limited COVID stimulus bill this month.

Stalled stimulus talks put bankers on edge – Banks so far have been able to avoid much pain from the pandemic, but the decision by the Trump administration and congressional leaders to put coronavirus relief negotiations on the back burner is making some in the industry nervous. The economic recovery has shown encouraging signs since widespread business closures and stay-at-home orders this past spring depressed revenues and led to a historic rise in unemployment. But some of that turnaround may be attributed to the massive stimulus package Congress enacted in March. With relief coffers running dry, coronavirus cases still rising in many parts of the country without an available vaccine, and regional restrictions on business reopenings still in place, bankers are beginning to worry about the government shifting its priorities. “The underlying economy in Main Street across America, I think, remains relatively strong. The million-dollar question is how long … restrictions on businesses and gatherings, how long it goes on,” said Noah Wilcox, chairman of the Independent Community Bankers of America and CEO of the $278 million-asset Grand Rapids State Bank in Grand Rapids, Minn. President Trump tweeted on Oct. 6 that he was rejecting a $2.4 trillion stimulus plan offered by House Democrats and was encouraging Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., to focus instead on confirming Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. For his part, McConnell said Tuesday that the Senate would vote on a targeted aid plan later this month, which is much less ambitious than the aid package supported by Democrats. The Republican plan would amount to roughly $500 billion in aid, including additional funds for Paycheck Protection Program. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has already rejected a $1.8 trillion stimulus proposal from the White House. “When the full Senate returns on Oct. 19, our first order of business will be voting again on targeted relief for American workers, including new funding for the PPP,” McConnell said Tuesday. “Unless Democrats block this aid for workers, we will have time to pass it before we proceed as planned to the pending Supreme Court nomination.” Bankers say that it is imperative that the White House and lawmakers get back to the negotiating table to approve additional economic stimulus as the pandemic continues to keep people out of work. Some in the industry want more federal aid available for businesses to maintain employment, similiar to the objective of the PPP.

White House Agrees to Democrats’ National Coronavirus-Testing Strategy – WSJ – Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday the administration was prepared to meet Democrats’ demands for a national coronavirus-testing strategy as part of a larger economic relief package.In an interview with CNBC, Mr. Mnuchin said he planned to tell House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) Thursday that the White House fundamentally agreed with language Democrats have proposed for the testing strategy, which has become a sticking point in ongoing negotiations over another aid bill.An agreement over a national testing plan would remove the biggest, but not the only, concern Democrats had raised last weekend with the White House’s latest $1.88 trillion proposal. It could raise pressure on Mrs. Pelosi to reach an agreement with President Trump less than three weeks before the presidential election. Still, even if Mr. Mnuchin and Mrs. Pelosi strike a deal, the GOP-controlled Senate has already signaled it may reject it.”When I speak to Pelosi today I’m going to tell her that we’re not going to let the testing issue stand in the way, that we’ll fundamentally agree with their testing language subject to some minor issues,” he said.Mr. Trump, continuing his push for a stimulus deal, said Thursday he would support more than the $1.88 trillion administration offer. “Go big or go home,” he said on Fox Business Network. The president blamed Democrats for inaction on a deal, though some Republicans have balked at spending that much.Mr. Mnuchin said the issue over testing “is getting overblown,” adding that the administration has agreed to include $75 billion that Democrats’ proposed for coronavirus testing and contact tracing and an additional $28 billion for vaccine development and distribution.Discussions in recent days have focused on the language around the testing strategy, he said. The White House had proposed using language included in a separate testing bill that had bipartisan support in the House and Senate, but Mr. Mnuchin said the administration was willing to acquiesce to the language requested by Mrs. Pelosi to move negotiations along.He also emphasized that a priority for the White House was repurposing roughly $300 billion that lawmakers authorized earlier this year in the March Cares Act that hasn’t been spent. The administration has proposed reallocating the money for another round of emergency aid to small businesses and for payroll support for struggling airlines.”I can literally get that money out the door this week,” he said.

McConnell shoots down $1.8 trillion coronavirus deal, breaking with Trump | TheHill – Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Thursday shot down the prospect of a coronavirus deal totaling between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion – the goalposts of the current talks between Democrats and the White House. McConnell’s comments, made to reporters in Kentucky, underscore the divisions between President Trump and Senate Republicans on a fifth coronavirus package, with the GOP leader preparing to force a vote on a $500 billion bill next week. “I don’t think so. That’s where the administration is willing to go. My members think half a trillion dollars, highly targeted, is the best way to go,” McConnell said, asked about the prospect of a deal totally between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion. McConnell added that while a reporter was correct that there are negotiations ongoing between Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the White House about the higher price range, “that’s not what I’m going to put on the floor.” McConnell’s comments come as President Trump signaled on Thursday that he was willing to go higher than $1.8 trillion in negotiations with Democrats. “Absolutely, I would. I would pay more. I would go higher. Go big or go home, I said it yesterday. Go big or go home,” Trump said during a phone interview on Fox Business on Thursday morning. But McConnell is set to put a substantially smaller bill on the floor next week. The GOP plan, which McConnell has said will be around $500 billion, will include another round of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funding, money for testing and hospitals, and protections for businesses from coronavirus-related lawsuits. Senate Republicans have struggled to get on the same page as the White House when it comes to the coronavirus negotiations. Senate Republicans offered a $1.1 trillion coronavirus package in late July but McConnell warned at the time that up to 20 GOP senators could vote “no.” They then unveiled a smaller bill in September that authorized about $500 billion that 52 of the 53 GOP senators supported. McConnell has publicly warned that just because Democrats and the White House get a deal does not mean he would agree to put it on the floor. Speaking to reporters during a recent press conference, McConnell said that he would “take a look at it and see if I can sell that to Senate Republicans.” Senate Republicans panned the $1.8 trillion price tag during a phone call with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows last weekend. One source familiar with the call said that there were “significant concerns raised with the price tag.”

GOP Is Focused on Sabotaging a Potential Biden Administration Amid a Pandemic – Alexis Goldstein – As Donald Trump continues to slide in the polls, losing support among seniors and in battleground states, Senate Republicans remain opposed to even a relatively narrow $1.8 trillion stimulus deal the White House wants. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be bringing an even smaller $500 billion stimulus bill to the Senate floor, where it will almost certainly fail. With so many Republican senators in tight races, one would imagine a stimulus deal would be in their favor. Their intransigence on a deal makes them look resigned not just to a Trump loss, but to a blue wave where Democrats retake the Senate. And while they remain divided over their support for a short-term stimulus, both the White House and Senate Republicans are using the levers available to them to blunt any economic recovery during a Joe Biden administration. The White House is only interested in measures that would impact the election, and nothing after it. This is evidenced by the expiration dates on two key administrative actions: the suspension on federal student loan payments and the evictions moratorium both end on December 31, 2020. This means many people will be ringing in 2021 with an eviction, garnishment of their wages to pay a defaulted student loan, or by re-starting student loan payments in the middle of the pandemic. If Biden wins in November, Trump will have set up a fraught three-week gap before the new administration can act again to stop evictions and student loan payments. If Trump or Education Secretary Betsy DeVos don’t act to extend the student loan suspension into January 2021 or later, low-income borrowers in default are at risk of having their tax refunds seized in 2021. The end to the federal student loan suspension will also mean the student debt collection machine will get turned back on January 1, 2021. While a Biden administration would likely act to re-suspend student loan payments, the Trump administration is sabotaging the possibility for continuity and creating the potential for real chaos and turmoil by ending the suspension three weeks before Inauguration Day. The federal evictions moratorium is also set to expire on New Year’s Eve 2020. In addition to teeing up a flood of evictions in 2021, should Biden win, the Trump administration is actually already working to undercut its own 2020 actions. The Trump administration just issued newguidance on its eviction moratorium that allows for eviction proceedings to begin, even though the eviction itself cannot be executed until January. Diane Yentel, president and CEO of the National Low Income Housing Coalition, noted that this helps landlords who may want to start eviction proceedings in October, because it allows them to pressure or intimidate renters into leaving sooner. She points out that many rentersfear eviction proceedings or “can’t participate in court proceedings due to accessibility issues,” and that this new guidance will create “new opportunities for landlord intimidation.” The Trump administration appears uninterested in helping renters in the new year, but is also actively sabotaging even the protections they created.

Pelosi: Mnuchin says Trump will lobby McConnell on big COVID-19 deal -Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested Thursday that President Trump will press Senate Republicans to accept a massive coronavirus relief package if a deal with Democrats emerges, according to the office of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Trump in recent days has urged Congress to “go big” as lawmakers weigh another round of emergency stimulus, indicating Thursday that he’s told Mnuchin to seek more funding than the $1.8 trillion proposal offered by the White House last week. Yet Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has rejected such a high figure, citing opposition from a long list of conservatives in his conference. McConnell is expected to stage a vote next week on a much smaller package, in the range of $500 billion. On a call with Mnuchin on Thursday afternoon, Pelosi raised concerns about McConnell being a roadblock to a larger aid package, even if Democrats and the White House can seal an agreement. The Treasury secretary, according to Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill, assured her Trump would intervene to lobby the majority leader on behalf of the legislation. “The Speaker also raised Leader McConnell’s comments today about not being willing to put a comprehensive package on the Senate floor. The Secretary indicated that the President would weigh in with Leader McConnell should an agreement be reached,” Hammill tweeted. Trump’s impact on the fate of a still-elusive deal remains to be seen. Republicans on Capitol Hill have, throughout Trump’s tenure, mobilized behind their Oval Office ally on a host of legislation, both mundane and controversial. Yet with Trump trailing in the polls – and McConnell fighting to save vulnerable GOP senators and keep his majority – cracks in the facade have begun to emerge. McConnell on Thursday said in no uncertain terms that he won’t call a vote on a stimulus bill anywhere near the size Pelosi and Mnuchin are discussing. “That’s where the administration is willing to go,” McConnell told local reporters in Kentucky. “My members think half a trillion dollars, highly targeted, is the best way to go.” The GOP divisions arrive as Pelosi and Mnuchin continue to seek a bipartisan coronavirus deal before the Nov. 3 elections. For almost a week, the sides have remained roughly $400 billion apart, with Pelosi sticking to the Democrats’ $2.2 trillion proposal, passed by the House earlier in the month, and Mnuchin offering $1.8 trillion last week. The sides have also disagreed on specific legislative language dictating how the funding will be allocated. But on Thursday, the pair made some headway: Mnuchin said he had largely agreed to Pelosi’s demand for a national testing strategy, featuring $75 billion for testing and tracing, as well as specific language on that topic – “subject to some minor issues.” “I think, quite frankly, we won’t need to spend all that money, but we’re happy to take the money,” he said in an interview with CNBC. Hammill said the White House will deliver that offer formally on Friday.

Graham: Congress should go ‘big and smart’ on COVID-19 package – Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said that Congress should go “big and smart” on the next coronavirus relief package. During a pre-recorded interview on “Full Court Press with Greta Van Susteren,” to air Sunday, Graham said that he thinks more money is needed, but not with certain policy provisions included in the House proposal. “The $2.2 trillion coming out of the House has a mandate for ballot harvesting. What’s that got to do COVID?” Graham said. “And the $1,200 payment, which I support, doesn’t require a Social Security number to get it, so a lot of the money would go to illegal immigrants.” Graham said that everyone agrees on setting up a Paycheck Protection Program to allow small businesses to get a forgivable loan, and that there’s a lot of “common ground” on helping schools. He also said he was “willing to do some unemployment,” but not $600 per week. “There are some Republicans who don’t want to spend anymore,” Graham said. “I think we need more money, but we don’t need policy provisions like the House has.” Following his stay at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for COVID-19 treatment, President Trump issued a series of conflicting messages on Twitter about a coronavirus relief package, first canceling talks with congressional leadership and then finally telling the legislature to “go big or go home” on a price tag for the bill. Graham told Van Susteren that the president’s right to want a bigger package, “but it’s got to be big and smart.” Graham has previously expressed support for another round of coronavirus aid. Following Trump’s erratic series of tweets about the stimulus package earlier this month, the South Carolina senator called on the president to “look at the House Problem-Solvers bipartisan $1.5 trillion stimulus relief package” as a good place to start. “Time to come together to help America deal with COVID as we move toward a vaccine,” Graham tweeted at the time. Passage of a stimulus package could bode well for Graham in his bid for reelection. The senator, a staunch Trump ally, is facing a competitive re-election bid against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. The Democrat raised $57 million in the third quarter this year, an all-time record for a U.S. Senate candidate. According to a recent New York Times/Siena College Poll, Graham is leading his opponent by 6 points in the race for the state’s senate seat, 1.5 points out of the survey’s margin of error. And earlier this month, the Cook Political Report moved the race from “lean Republican” to “toss up.” Trump’s top economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Friday that he thinks Trump could get enough GOP senators to support an agreement struck by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnunchin if they’re able to land one before election day.

Treasury Department Encouraged Banks to Prioritize Existing Customers for PPP Loans, House Panel Says – WSJ – – The Treasury Department privately encouraged lenders to prioritize existing customers when issuing loans for the federal government’s small-business coronavirus aid program, according to a report released Friday by a Democratic-led congressional oversight subcommittee.The Treasury Department’s actions were one of several ways the Trump administration and several large banks put underserved businesses, including those owned by women and minorities, at a disadvantage when applying for the $670 billion Paycheck Protection Program, said the report from the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis. Banks and other lenders issued PPP loans, and the Small Business Administration guaranteed them.The Treasury Department, which helped run the program along with the Small Business Administration, denied to the subcommittee that it had told banks to prioritize existing customers, the report said.The report said that documents obtained by the subcommittee show the Treasury Department instructed PPP lenders to “go to their existing customer base” when issuing the loans.”We encouraged all banks to offer loans to their existing small business customers, but no Treasury official ever suggested that banks should do so to the exclusion of new customers,” a Treasury Department spokesperson said. “The subcommittee’s conclusion to the contrary is false and unsupported by its own record.”The SBA had no immediate comment Friday. On March 28, a day after the law establishing the PPP was enacted, Rob Nichols, president of the American Bankers Association, emailed the trade group’s board about a call with Treasury officials the previous day. “Treasury would like for banks to go to their existing customer base,” said the email, according to the report. “This will allow loans to move quickly,” Mr. Nichols added.

The Great Barrington Declaration – Universal Lockdowns vs. Focused Protection – With governments around the world implementing Phase II of their lockdowns as the number of COVID-19 cases grows (in tandem with the number of tests being completed), it is interesting to see that there is another narrative being promoted by a group of infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists who are growing increasingly concerned about the physical and mental health impact that these universal lockdowns are having on our society. After a meeting at Great Barrington, Massachusetts between October 1st and 4th, 2020, three scientists have created the Great Barrington Declaration, a document that has been signed by thousands of scientists and hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens who have become increasingly concerned about how their governments are handling the COVID-19 pandemic and how the current measures being utilized (i.e. lockdowns) are, in fact, causing irreparable damage to all of us.Let’s open this posting by looking at a video featuring three dissenting scientists who are responsible for issuing the Great Barrington Declaration:The three imminently qualified scientists who originated this Declaration are as follows: 1.) Dr. Martin Kulldorff: 2.) Dr. Sunetra Gupta: 3.) Dr. Jay Bhattacharya: Here is the entire text of the Great Barrington Declaration: “As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection. Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice. Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

The “herd immunity strategy” isn’t part of a scientific debate about COVID-19. It’s a well-funded political campaign. Medium

Focused Protection, Herd Immunity, and Other Deadly Delusions – A few weeks ago, as I was browsing online at Jacobin, I found an interview, headlined “We Need a Radically Different Approach to the Pandemic and Our Economy as a Whole,” with Harvard professors Katherine Yih and Martin Kulldorff. I was excited to read it. However, after some acknowledgement of the impact the pandemic has had on the poor and vulnerable in the United States, the piece makes a sharp detour into a defense of herd immunity, the very same strategy supported by Scott Atlas, President Donald Trump’s most favored adviser at the moment – and roundly criticized by experts around the country, including more than 100 of Atlas’s own colleagues at Stanford. Fast forward to this week, where one of the Harvard professors in question, Martin Kulldorff, along with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya from Stanford University and Sunetra Gupta from the University of Oxford, were in D.C. meeting with Scott Atlas and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar to promote their new “focused protection” strategy in which “schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume.” In the words of Donald Trump, “America will again and soon be open for business,” across the board, if we follow the advice of these professors. What has shocked and dismayed the vast majority of people working in public health and clinical medicine about this strategy is that it is heavy on the rationale for reopening or “liberating” states, cities, and towns and light on the “focused protection” part. Kulldorff, Bhattacharya, and Gupta are confident that we can sequester and protect the elderly and vulnerable from the virus, while the young and fit go about their business as usual and their getting infected is seen as their contribution to the building of herd immunity, presenting little risk to them.Let’s put this into some real-world context. In the United States, only a small proportion of older Americans live in nursing or care homes, where we have shown little ability to keep our elders safe over the past eight months. The bulk of older Americans are integrated into our communities, living alone or with their spouses or their families. Even if we could make nursing homes into impenetrable fortresses impervious to viral entry, it’s not at all clear how we’d keep the millions of elderly “safe” as they live around, among, and with us. In fact, data from CDC suggests that we haven’t done a good job at all on this, and when virus cases surge in young people, the elderly are next in line for transmission.Another group of people to whom these three august academics give short shrift are the chronically ill in America. The CDC estimates that nearly half of all Americans (47.5 percent) have underlying conditions that predispose them to severe Covid-19 outcomes. If it is a challenge to think of sequestering the elderly, what do we do with almost half of our fellow Americans who may be at similar enhanced risk of complications and death from Covid-19?

What if both the lockdowners and the anti-lockdowners are wrong? – FT Alphaville – John Hempton recently released his September letter to clients, and we thought there was one section that was particularly good on Covid. His key point is that maybe both lockdowners and anti-lockdowners are wrong because there’s something behavioural within humans that naturally orientates R to 1. From the letter: Since the latter part of March, no country has had a virus infection/fatality curve that matched these [epidemiological] mathematical models. And the new curves are being interpreted according to one’s preferred ideology. A libertarian interpretation is that the virus isn’t that favourite you should eliminate lockdown. Sweden is the favourite example for an anti-lockdown stance. Alternatively, those with opposing points of view observe the lower death rates as indicative of the success of public policy and maintain a pro-lockdown stance. Sweden is characterised instead as a failure, with a higher death rate than its nearest neighbours (Norway, Finland). We argue that the new curves do not indicate anything much about the virus. They are just what you would expect to happen (although to be fair we did not expect it at the time). The idea is simple. For any individual there is a risk to social activity. Getting on a bus entails risk. Singing in a choir much more risk. Working from home and minimising exposure entails very little risk. As the virus becomes more common the real and perceived risk of going out becomes higher. People will choose to stay at home or take less risk. As the virus becomes less common the risk of going out and doing things is lower so risk taking will increase. The end result is a rough equilibrium where the virus goes sideways. To use the jargon, R0 tends to one. This seems to happen everywhere. (The idea has been expounded elsewhere – see this article by Joshua Gans.) Hempton later puts this model of behavioural risk into the context of both the Swedish and US response to Covid: America did have a wide range of variable lockdown policies (but relative to say Melbourne weak policies with weak enforcement). It also had an explosion of cases, but the virus is now going roughly sideways at levels much higher than Sweden. Libertarians however have that the relative success of the Swedish policy (versus say the American policy) means that if you had adopted the Swedish policy in America you would have got better results in America. They are likely wrong too. The reason is obvious. Sweden is one of the strongest welfare states in the world. America is the weakest welfare state among rich countries. The cost of not going out (ie not taking risk) in Sweden is largely that you collect (generous) welfare. The cost of not going out (and hence avoiding risk) for a low-income American is that they and their family starve. Americans – especially poor Americans – will take more risk because the lack of welfare dictates that they take more risk. The net effect is that the virus will stabilise at a higher level in America than Sweden at any level of non-effective lockdown policy. Incidentally this is true for a wide range of virus severity. So in the great battle of coronavirus response ideologies, perhaps all that matters is our perception of risk? It’s a pretty compelling argument, but we need to chew on it some more.

Labor secretary’s wife tests positive for COVID-19 Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia’s wife tested positive for the coronavirus, the Labor Department announced Tuesday. Trish Scalia is currently experiencing “mild symptoms but doing well,” the department said. Eugene Scalia tested negative for the virus.”The Secretary and Mrs. Scalia will follow the advice of health professionals for Trish’s recovery and the health of those around them. For the time being, the Secretary will work from home while continuing to carry out the mission of the Department and the President’s agenda,” the Labor Department said in a statement. It was not immediately clear where Trish Scalia contracted the virus. Both Scalias attended the Rose Garden event where President Trump announced his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, which has been linked to multiple COVID-19 cases within Trump’s circle. Trump battled his own bout of the coronavirus earlier this month, and dozens of White House staffers, campaign aides and advisers contracted the virus after attending an outdoor White House event where many people in the packed crowd did not wear masks.

Two Energy Secretary security detail members test positive for coronavirus – Two members of Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette’s security detail tested positive forcoronavirus, the department announced late Thursday night. Brouillette has tested negative for the virus and is not showing any symptoms, Energy spokesperson Shaylyn Hynes said in a statement posted on Twitter. He was scheduled to be in Johnstown and Erie, Pennsylvania, Thursday touring a plastics engineering lab and participating in a roundtable discussion with local labor and energy leaders, according to a press release on the department’s website.”Out of an abundance of caution, the Secretary and traveling staff will be returning by vehicle to Washington and following CDC guidance,” Hynes said.A host of lawmakers, governmental officials and their staff have tested positive for the virus recently. At least a dozen people, including President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump, tested positive for Covid-19 after attending a Rose Garden event in September where it was announced that Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated to the Supreme Court. In June, two Secret Service agents tested positive for coronavirus after working Trump’s indoor rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and dozens of agents were quarantined as a precaution. The following month, eight Secret Service agents assigned to Vice President Mike Pence’s detail ahead of his trip to Arizona tested positive for the virus.

Barron Trump tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month – Barron Trump tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month, first lady Melania Trump announced in a a personal essay posted on the White House website. The 14-year-old has since tested negative, as have the first lady and the president, since the two contracted the virus earlier this month. Mr. Trump, has described his battle with the virus to supporters but has not said much about his family’s experience with COVID-19. Mrs. Trump said Barron exhibited no symptoms. “It was two weeks ago when I received the diagnosis that so many Americans across our country and the world had already received – I tested positive for COVID-19. To make matters worse, my husband, and our nation’s Commander-in-Chief, received the same news,” Mrs. Trump wrote. “Naturally my mind went immediately to our son,” she continued. “To our great relief he tested negative, but again, as so many parents have thought over the past several months, I couldn’t help but think “what about tomorrow or the next day? My fear came true when he was tested again and it came up positive. Luckily he is a strong teenager and exhibited no symptoms. In one way I was glad the three of us went through this at the same time so we could take care of one another and spend time together. He has since tested negative.” Mrs. Trump said she has also tested negative and hopes to resume her duties “as soon as I can.” She also described how the disease affected her, and she indicated her road to recovery did not require a drug regimen similar to her husband’s.”I was very fortunate as my diagnosis came with minimal symptoms, though they hit me all at once and it seemed to be a roller coaster of symptoms in the days after,” she wrote. “I experienced body aches, a cough and headaches, and felt extremely tired most of the time. I chose to go a more natural route in terms of medicine, opting more for vitamins and healthy food.”

Trump’s “herd immunity” policy and right-wing terror – On Tuesday, Newsweek reported that two Trump administration officials said the White House supports the Great Barrington Declaration, a statement advocating the mass infection of the population with COVID-19 through a policy of “herd immunity.” The declaration comes out of a meeting organized by the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), a right-wing libertarian think tank centered in Great Barrington, Massachusetts. It calls for governments to “build up immunity to the virus through natural infection,” discourages remote work, and promotes mass gatherings where the virus can spread. The implementation of this policy would mean death on a massive scale. The “herd immunity” policy is condemned by all reputable health authorities, including the World Health Organization. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Monday called such a policy “unethical.” He added, “Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it. Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic.” But this is precisely the policy that has been implemented by the Trump administration and other governments throughout the world. The Washington Post quoted a White House official as saying, “The plan [the Great Barrington Declaration] is endorsing what the president’s policy has been for months.” If the White House believed “for months” that efforts to contain the pandemic are counterproductive, then its refusal to take basic measures to stop the spread of the pandemic in January and February must be seen as malicious homicide. Based on the belief that mass infection of the population is a good thing, the White House deliberately and knowingly carried out policies that have led to over 200,000 deaths in the US. The anonymous official continued, “Everybody knows that 200,000 people died. That’s extremely serious and tragic. But on the other hand, I don’t think society has to be paralyzed, and we know the harms of confining people to their homes.” The Trump administration is also escalating its attack on Dr. Anthony Fauci as part of the broader effort to undermine any coordinated response to the pandemic. Fauci recently warned “If we don’t do what we need to in the fall and winter, we could have 300,000-400,000 Covid-19 deaths.” The White House’s open endorsement of “herd immunity” comes just days after law enforcement officials revealed an advanced plot by far-right terrorists to kidnap and kill Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The plot, which according to reports yesterday also targeted Virginia Governor Ralph Northam, was centered on opposition to even the most minimal restrictions aimed at containing the pandemic. The plot grew out of right-wing demonstrations in April and May, led by heavily armed militias, in state capitals in Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin and other states. These demonstrations, egged on by the Trump’s call to “liberate” these states, came as the ruling class was demanding a return to work following limited measures adopted in March in response to protests by autoworkers and other sections of the working class as the pandemic spread.

3 Individuals Linked To Biden Campaign Test Positive For COVID-19; Harris Suspends Campaign Until Monday -Finally, it appears some Democrats have tested positive for COVID-19. Or at least that’s what the Biden Camp wants the public to focus on Thursday morning, as the scandal about Hunter Biden’s emails enters Day 2.Kamala Harris’s communications director Liz Allen and a “non-staff” flight crew member have tested positive for COVID-19. Neither Harris nor Joe Biden have had close contact with either, though Harris will suspend in-person events for a few days before returning to campaigning in person Monday morning. Harris has reportedly tested negative, per the campaign.Biden campaign says two staffers test positive for Covid. Neither was in contact with Biden or Harris.[Covid is everywhere, people] pic.twitter.com/rdHcZJ2rva – Rick Newman (@rickjnewman) October 15, 2020 Though Harris wasn’t in close contact with her top communications staffer, and thus does not need to quarantine under CDC standards (according to the campaign), she is taking a few days off “out of an abundance of caution.”The staffers tested positive “late Wednesday night,” according to the campaign.Of course, the timing of the positive tests is certainly interesting, but then again, COVID-19 can infect any person at any time. With 19 days until the election, how might this latest outbreak, which comes barely a week after the White House outbreak appeared to finally quiet down, impact Team Biden? Update 1530ET): Another Biden campaign worker has tested positive – this time, it was a member of the crew on one of Biden’s chartered planes. The former VEEP wasn’t exposed, according to the campaign.

Supreme Court nominee Barrett faces Senate confirmation hearings despite virus – Confirmation hearings for U.S. Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett are set to begin today. Republicans, who control the Senate, are moving at a breakneck pace to seat Barrett before the Nov. 3 election, to secure Trump’s pick and hear a high-profile challenge to the Affordable Care Act and any election-related challenges. Democrats are trying in vain to delay the fast-track confirmation by raising fresh concerns about the safety of meeting during the pandemic after two Republican senators on the panel tested positive for the coronavirus. In prepared remarks for the Judiciary Committee hearing, which the AP obtained, the federal appeals court judge says :”Courts are not designed to solve every problem or right every wrong in our public life.” The three days of hearings are like no others before them with voting underway in many states and the country in the grips of the pandemic, Mark Sherman, Lisa Mascaro, Mary Clare Jalonick and Mike Balsamo report. Her affiliation with the Christian community People of Praise is drawing scrutiny because of its ultraconservative views on women. Her defenders say examining her beliefs and relationship to the mostly Catholic organization is akin to anti-religious bigotry. But in interviews with a dozen former members of the organization or alumni of the schools it runs, most told the AP that her association with the organization is relevant. Some are excited. Others are concerned. Some wonder why Barrett hasn’t disclosed or even acknowledged her connection to People of Praise.

Supreme Court allows Trump administration to end census count early – The Supreme Court on Tuesday effectively allowed the government to stop the census count immediately, blocking a lower court order that would have required the Trump administration to continue gathering census information in the field until the end of October. The Census Bureau said it wanted to stop the count so that it could start processing the data to meet a Dec. 31 deadline, set in federal law, for reporting the results to the president. But the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ordered the government to keep going with its field work until Oct. 31, concluding that a longer time in the field would increase accuracy. This year’s process of conducting the population count began on time, but field operations were suspended in March in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Commerce Department asked Congress for a four-month delay in the deadline for reporting the results, but that request went nowhere.

Supreme Court grants Trump request to halt 2020 census The Supreme Court on Tuesday granted the Trump administration’s request to halt the census count while an appeal plays out in a lower court. The emergency order comes a week after a California-based federal appeals court denied a request from the administration to reverse a lower court’s order requiring the count to continue through October rather than reinstate the administration’s since-passed Oct. 5 deadline. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in her dissent, wrote that “the harms caused by rushing this year’s census count are irreparable.” The other justices did not disclose their votes or explain their reasoning, as is often the case with emergency orders. In their filing last week, administration officials told the justices that the shorter window is necessary to allow the Commerce Department to wrap up operations in time to meet its end-of-year deadline to report the results to the White House. But critics say the move risks undercounting minority populations composed of both documented and undocumented immigrants. Last Wednesday, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit denied the administration’s request to halt the district judge’s order that extended the census deadline through Oct. 31. The panel wrote that failure to meet the Dec. 31 reporting deadline was unlikely to invalidate the numbers delivered to President Trump. The appeals court also left open the option of Congress passing an extension if the numbers are delivered after the Dec. 31 deadline. Congress took similar steps in the census counts conducted for three decades in the 19th century. The administration has continued its push to exclude undocumented immigrants from the decennial count, despite a Supreme Court ruling that blocked the administration from including a question on the census about the recipient’s legal status in the U.S.

Trump administration rushing through regulations without public comment or analysis as it prepares for probable loss – President Trump’s team is on a last-minute deregulation spree. In an attempt to further as many of Republicans’ deregulation goals as possible, Trump’s team is eclipsing the usual process for changing regulations and pushing them through without public comment or analysis. The rushed processes could have major safety and privacy consequences for millions of Americans, but seems to be a sign Trump is preparing for an election loss, The New York Times reports. Regulatory changes usually require at least a 60-day public comment period, but Trump’s team has shortened that to 30 days. And in some cases, it has even skipped the public comment period entirely by implementing what’s known as an interim final rule – something usually reserved for emergencies. Without these public comment periods, regulations can pass without expert analysis and opinions that can root out safety shortcomings and other issues. It’s all being done in a likely attempt to get rules quickly finalized before Trump’s term ends in January – and before he’s potentially forced to leave office. The Trump administration is looking to loosen restrictions on how long truck drivers can stay behind the wheel, allow the federal government to take biometric data from people applying for citizenship, and let independent contractors work more before they have to be considered employees, among other regulations.

As Trump Touts His ‘Great’ COVID Drugs, the Pharma Cash Flows to Biden, Not Him –Pharmaceutical giants Regeneron and Gilead Sciences got the kind of publicity money can’t buy this week after President Donald Trump took their experimental drugs for his coronavirus infection, left the hospital and pronounced himself fully recovered.”It was, like, unbelievable. I felt good immediately,” Trump said Wednesday in a tweeted video. “I call that a cure.”He praised Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody cocktail, which mimics elements of the immune system, and mentioned a similar drug under investigation by Eli Lilly and Co. The president also took Gilead’s remdesivir, an antiviral that has shortened recovery times for COVID-19 patients in early research.There is no scientific evidence that any of these drugs contributed to the president’s recovery, since many patients do fine without them. It is also not known whether the president has been “cured,” since the White House has released few specifics about the course of his illness. Yet as his campaign for reelection enters its final stretch, Trump is not feeling the love in campaign contributions. Regeneron, Gilead, Lilly and the industry as a whole are sending more money elsewhere.Reversing a trend in which contributions from drugmakers’ political committees and their employees have gone largely to Republican candidatesfor president and Congress, so far for 2020 the industry has tilted toward Democrats. In a year when complaints about high prescription drug prices have been overshadowed by the pandemic, donors with ties to pharma manufacturers have given around $976,000 to Biden, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics. That’s nearly three times the pharma contributions to Trump, who recently switched his tune from complaining about “rip-off” prescription prices to describing drug firms as “great companies.” “Traditionally the industry tends to favor Republicans,” said Sarah Bryner, CRP’s research director. “But this cycle, we’re seeing that flipped,” partly reflecting Democrats’ overall greater success in fundraising, she said.

Fed’s Quarles casts doubt on permanent capital relief for big banks – A senior Federal Reserve official appeared to throw cold water on hopes that the central bank will implement permanent relief sought by institutions in the calculation of a key capital measure. Regulators implemented an interim rule change in May to allow systemically important banks to exclude Treasury securities and deposits at Federal regional banks from the supplementary leverage ratio, a more demanding capital benchmark designed to limit risky activities. The temporary relief was meant to help institutions lend to customers feeling the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some have suggested that safe holdings like Treasurys and Fed reserves should never have been included in the leverage ratio at the outset. “Why would one need a capital buffer against reserves, which are worth one for one?” said Darrell Duffie, a professor of finance at Stanford University, on a panel for a virtual event sponsored by the CFA Institute. But Fed Vice Chairman of Supervision Randal Quarles, speaking on the panel, said making the change permanent is not currently on the central bank’s radar. “It is clear … that [the SLR] was a significant disincentive for banks to respond to the pressures on the Treasury market in March, and when we made that exemption, they were able to respond much more fully,” he said. “So I understand the desire to give thought to it but I would think it’d be premature to say that we ought to make that permanent currently.” While he cast doubt on permanent leverage ratio relief, Quarles described himself as a “proponent” of the Fed’s establishing an overnight repurchase facility to support monetary policy. The SLR requires banks with more than $250 billion of assets to maintain an extra cushion of high-quality capital against an institution’s total assets. Institutions subject to the requirement must maintain a minimum 3% ratio against their total leverage exposure, with even tougher requirements for the most complex firms. The temporary SLR relief – which will be in effect until March 2021 – was intended not only to enable banks to expand balance sheets but also to relieve some stresses in the functioning of the Treasury market. However, the Fed also estimated that the change would reduce the required amount of capital at bank holding companies by $76 billion. That drew backlash from some who felt that banks should refrain from shedding capital in the throes of a crisis. Duffie said during he believed the Fed should exempt reserves and Treasurys from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio, a non-risked-based capital requirement in which all assets are weighted equally. To compensate for the resulting reduction in banks’ loss protection, he said the Fed could increase risk-based capital requirements. But Quarles suggested doing so would defeat the purpose of the SLR. “Once you start excepting out of the denominator everything that you think is safe – so first you begin with reserves, and then Treasurys, and then why not repo and then why not agencies and then why not other countries’ sovereigns?” he said. “And then you just go down the list of whatever people want to create a greater incentive for banks to hold, and you’ve just got another risk-based ratio.”

Fed’s Kashkari says banks arguing against regulation ‘make stuff up’ – U.S. regulators are going in the wrong direction when it comes to banks, and the arguments banks use against stricter requirements amount to nonsense, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said. “The big banks will make all sorts of nonsensical arguments that it’s holding back lending. It’s all nonsense,” Kashkari said Thursday during a virtual event hosted by New York University, echoing comments he made in a recent speech. “Their arguments are just – you just make stuff up and you hope people believe it,” he added. Kashkari, who oversaw the 2008 bank bailouts as a then-Treasury official, has been outspoken in favor of higher capital requirements since he took over at the Minneapolis Fed in 2016. The U.S. central bank has instead relaxed some regulations since then under the direction of officials appointed to the Fed’s Board of Governors in Washington by President Trump. “We are going in the wrong direction,” Kashkari said. “I think we should be tougher. I think we should have higher capital requirements on the biggest banks.” The Minneapolis Fed chief praised Lael Brainard, the lone Fed governor to be appointed to her current position by President Barack Obama, for speaking out against the majority in favor of tougher measures. Brainard is reportedly under consideration as a possible future Treasury secretary if Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wins the Nov. 3 election.

JPMorgan Chase posts surprise jump in profit on lower credit costs – JPMorgan Chase, in its third quarter under the shadow of the pandemic, showed that the surge in trading is holding up – and so are borrowers. The biggest U.S. bank posted a surprise increase in earnings, fueled by a 30% jump in markets revenue as elevated volume kept its stock and bond traders busy. The lender also defied expectations by cutting its reserve for loan losses by $569 million, after adding $20 billion to the allowance in the first half, as charge-offs of bad loans were lower than a year ago. Those improvements and a 9% gain in investment banking fees led to the most profitable quarter of 2020. “The corporate & investment bank continues to be a big driver of firm performance,” Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said in a statement Tuesday. “We maintained our credit reserves at $34 billion given significant economic uncertainty and a broad range of potential outcomes.” The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on the global economy, and bank investors have been waiting to see how much that translates into losses from soured loans. Delinquencies have remained low so far, helped by lenders’ forbearance programs and government stimulus efforts, but bank executives have warned that the effects could drag on for years. JPMorgan’s earnings hint at what’s to come when the rest of Wall Street reports results this week. The nation’s four biggest lenders probably set aside about an additional $10 billion for bad loans in the third quarter, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg prior to Tuesday’s results. Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Piepszak said in September that the bank’s third-quarter trading revenue would probably jump 20% from last year. The firm surpassed that as its $6.6 billion total was higher than the $6.15 billion analysts were expecting. Profit climbed 4% to $9.44 billion from $9.1 billion a year ago. The New York-based bank took a one-time charge to help cover the cost of a $920.2 million fine to resolve U.S. authorities’ claims of market manipulation by its precious metals and Treasury markets trading desks. JPMorgan previously said it had set aside about half of what it needed for the fine.

Hefty profits for top US banks as millions face social disaster – Big US banks reported much stronger than expected profits in the third quarter while wide layers of the population face misery and hardship. Buoyed by government cash poured into the financial markets, JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter profits of $9.44 billion, or $2.92 per share, well above the forecasts of economic experts. That figure compared with $4.76 billion last quarter and $9.08 billion one year ago. JP Morgan’s bond and stock trading operations accounted for a 20 percent year-over-year increase in revenues, offsetting declines in consumer loans and credit cards. The bank’s earnings rose despite a charge for $524 million for legal fees related to its criminal manipulation of global markets in commodities and US treasury notes. Citigroup reported $3.2 billion for the third quarter, despite a 13 percent drop in revenue from consumer banking as its trading and investment revenue rose 5 percent. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, also reported strong third quarter profits, which rose to $1.36 billion. Fueled by US Treasury cash, its assets under management increased to $7.8 trillion, which is an increase of 12 percent from the third quarter of last year. Other large US banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are expected to show healthy third quarter profits when their reports come out later this month. The strong results for the banks come in the midst of the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression and mounting hardship across the US. The situation facing the unemployed is increasingly dire as the limited and inadequate support for the unemployed contained in the CARES Act long ago expired and funds released by the Trump administration for a $300 supplement are largely exhausted. Meanwhile, the US Treasury continues to pump cash into the financial markets, money that will have to be repaid at devastating cost to the working class in terms of social benefits, wages, working conditions and lives. The necessity of restarting production in order to repay the trillions handed over to the banks and corporations is the driving force behind the homicidal back-to-work policy of the US ruling class and governments around the world. This has led to a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths, with the number of fatalities surpassing one million internationally and 221,000 in the US. Despite the reported decline in the official unemployment rate, September saw an unprecedented increase in the number of long-term unemployed, those out of work 27 weeks or longer. Some 2.4 million were classified as long-term unemployed last month, a rise of 781,000 since August. That represents 19.1 percent of the total unemployed. Alongside the growth in the number of long-term unemployed is the rise in permanent layoffs, indicating that many of the jobs lost during the pandemic are never coming back. The number of permanent job losses increased in September by 345,000, bringing total permanent job losses to 3.8 million. That number is 2.5 million higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Profits nearly double at Goldman on broad revenue strength – Goldman Sachs Group joined other big U.S. banks in cashing in on continuing pandemic-induced volatility, as the firm’s bond traders posted the biggest jump on Wall Street so far. Third-quarter revenue from buying and selling stocks and bonds increased 29%, driven by a 49% surge in fixed-income trading and mirroring similar gains reported Tuesday by JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. Revenue at each of Goldman’s four divisions rose from a year earlier, pushing earnings per share to a record that was almost twice as high as analysts predicted. Net income almost doubled from a year earlier to $3.62 billion. Earnings per share were a record $9.68, far surpassing analysts’ estimates for $5.53. Many investors were expecting Goldman to beat estimates, “but nowhere close to this order of magnitude, with strength coming from both high- and low-quality sources,” Steven Chubak, an analyst at Wolfe Research, wrote in a note. “Whatever your whisper number was, they crushed that, too.” Trading gains since the start of the pandemic have helped offset weakness in consumer businesses at the nation’s biggest banks, where loan-loss provisions piled up in the first half of the year. The bank’s lending portfolio stayed on the mend after a big writedown at the start of the year. The firm posted a surprise drop from a year earlier in its loan-loss provisions, echoing its bigger rivals in socking away a much smaller amount for credit losses. The stockpile amounted to just $278 million in the third quarter, down from $1.6 billion for the previous three months. The decline was mostly tied to corporate and consumer borrowers paying down loans, Goldman said. Goldman’s consumer operation cracked $1 billion in trailing 12-month revenue for the first time since it started operations four years ago. Goldman’s consumer deposits climbed at a slower pace than in the second quarter. Its money management arm posted a 3% drop in assets under management, mostly driven by a decline in liquidity products.

Leveraged lending has avoided pandemic hit. Will that last? – – When the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S. economy in March, some banking industry watchers feared an explosion of defaults on loans to highly leveraged companies. While such an explosion has not materialized, many observers believe the corporate debt market is not out of the woods yet. The default rate on leveraged loans reached 4% in July, according to S&P Global, higher than the 1% rate set a year earlier but nowhere near the double digits some had predicted from the crisis. A March report by Fitch Ratings had projected a cumulative 15% default rate in 2020 and 2021. Some have attributed the benign default numbers to tightened lending standards, higher fees for corporate borrowers and a decline in overall leveraged loan issuance. Meanwhile, relief for businesses provided by the $2 trillion stimulus package in March helped stabilize credit quality, observers say. But a lack of further fiscal stimulus could lead to higher default rates, experts warn. “At some point in the new year, you’re going to see that some businesses just … need additional support,” said Ellen Snare, a partner at King & Spalding. Leveraged loans skyrocketed following the 2008 financial crisis and are estimated globally now to total anywhere from $1 trillion to $3 trillion. Regulators repeatedly raised concerns about lax underwriting driving the boom, although the bulk of the exposure is in the nonbank sector. Many saw the coronavirus crisis as having the potential to lay bare the risks of the leveraged lending market. In the low-interest-rate years following the 2008 financial crisis, a record amount of businesses have loaded up on debt, and the global leveraged loan market is estimated to be anywhere from $1 trillion to $3 trillion. Before COVID-19, the default rate on leveraged loans was remarkably low. And although data has suggested that delinquencies may be rising – and even topped 4% in July by issuer count, according to S&P Global – so far they are not to the extent that may had originally feared when the pandemic plunged the U.S. economy into a recession. But without more support from Congress to provide economic relief to businesses, there could be a dangerous trickle-down effect, said Snare.

Wells Fargo Fires Over 100 Employees For Illegally Pocketing Virus Relief Funds – First JPMorgan admitted that over 500 of its generously paid employees had “illegally pocketed” covid-relief funds – and then summarily fired most of them – and now it’s chronic lawbreaking recidivist Wells Fargo’s turn.The bank, whose stock tumbled today after reporting dismal results and then was hit with even more selling after cutting its net interest income outlook, has fired more than 100 employees for illegally getting covid relief funds which were meant to help small businesses, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar. Warren Buffett’s favorite bank uncovered dozens of employees who defrauded the Small Business Administration “by making false representations in applying for coronavirus relief funds for themselves,” according to an internal memo reviewed by Bloomberg. Similar to JPMorgan, the abuse was tied to the Economic Injury Disaster Loan program and was outside the employees’ roles at the bank, according to the memo.“We have terminated the employment of those individuals and will cooperate fully with law enforcement,” David Galloreese, Wells Fargo’s head of human resources, said in the memo. Wells Fargo’s actions follow JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s finding that more than 500 employees tapped the EIDL program which hands out as much as $10,000 in emergency advances that don’t have to be repaid, and dozens did so improperly.The bank “will continue to look into these matters,” Galloreese added, saying the employees’ abuse didn’t involve customers… for once. “If we identify additional wrongdoing by employees, we will take appropriate action.”As Bloomberg notes banks were urged by the SBA to look out for suspicious deposits from the EIDL program to their customers and even their own staff, after an analysis identified that at least $1.3 billion was sent out from the SBA for suspicious payments. While the program offers loans to businesses, much of the concern has focused on its advances of as much as $10,000 that don’t have to be repaid.

Why the pandemic is making cybersecurity even harder for credit unions – Earlier this year, credit unions across the country completed a task that was previously almost unthinkable – they managed to get the majority of employees working remotely with little notice. But this accomplishment has created new cybersecurity concerns. Since the coronavirus became widespread earlier this year, institutions have had to be vigilant about a variety of issues, including new scams that utilize the crisis to try and trick consumers and workers into making a costly mistake. That has been made even more difficult as employees may still not be housed in an office and instead could be spread out working remotely. “Work from home suddenly meant that many institutions had to significantly beef up their remote access options for branch staff and others that were used to working out of physical locations,” said John Meyer, senior director at Cornerstone Advisors. “We were impressed with how rapidly our credit unions responded to this challenge. Fraudsters, though, are finding ways to exploit the holes in the remote workforce.” The following are some cybersecurity concerns that credit unions need to keep in mind for the rest of this year and into 2021.

MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.32%” –Note: This is as of October 4th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.32% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 49 basis points from 6.81% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 6.32% as of October 4, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.2 million homeowners are in forbearance plans….”The share of loans in forbearance declined across all loan types. With the forbearance program for federally backed loans under the CARES Act reaching the six-month mark, many borrowers saw their forbearance plans expire because they did not contact their servicer. Another reason for expirations was that borrower information needed to determine an appropriate loss mitigation option was not yet in place,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Borrowers with federally backed mortgages need to contact their servicer to obtain another six months of reprieve if they are still impacted by the pandemic. As of now, some borrowers are exiting forbearance without making contact or without a plan in place. Servicers are making outreach efforts to attempt to work with these borrowers to determine the best options for them, including an extension.”Added Fratantoni, “On a more positive note, nearly two-thirds of borrowers who exited forbearance remained current on their payments, repaid their forborne payments, or moved into a payment deferral plan. All of these borrowers have been able to resume – or continue – their pre-pandemic monthly payments.” …By stage, 25.50% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 72.97% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.53% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months. The MBA notes: “Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.08% to 0.11%.” There hasn’t been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly Following Large Decline Last Week – Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of October 13th.From Forbearance Volumes Increase Slightly Following Largest Weekly Drop: Following last week’s largest weekly decline in COVID-19-related forbearances since the pandemic began, the market saw a slight uptick of 19k loans in forbearance this week. New data released today from Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that though volumes increased week-over-week, there is still reason to be optimistic about the state of U.S. mortgages in forbearance. We are seeing the national forbearance rate hold steady at 5.6% week-over-week, with just under 3 million homeowners remaining in active forbearance. This number is down from a peak of 4.76 million in late May. All in, there are currently 708k fewer loans in forbearance now than the same time last month, which is a 19% decline. Of the remaining 2,988,000 current forbearance cases, 78% have had their terms extended with their servicer.

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Declined in October – From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 86.8 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of October 13: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 86.8 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by October 13 in its survey of 11.5 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 2.4-percentage point, or 271,000-household decrease from the share who paid rent through October 13, 2019 and compares to 86.2 percent that had paid by September 13, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. “While the broader multifamily industry continues to show its resilience at a national level, other metrics in the industry are beginning to highlight the growing localized financial distress due to inaction by political leaders in Washington,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President.This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 13th of the month. CR Note: This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties. There has been some decline in households paying rent, but rent payments are not falling off a cliff.

Percentage of young adults living with parents higher than during the Great Depression – The Pew Research Center last month published a study showing that a higher number of young adults are living with their parents than during the Great Depression of the 1930s. According to the study, which is based on data from the US Census Bureau, 52 percent of young people ages 18-29 lived with their parents in July this year, nearly six months after the onset of the pandemic in the US. This figure is significantly higher than at the end of the Great Depression in 1940, when the percentage was 48 percent. Due to a lack of statistics covering the 1930s, there is no way to know the exact percentage of young people living at home during the depths of the Great Depression. In July alone, the number of young adults living with their parents was 26.6 million, an increase of 2.6 million from February this year. Richard Fry, a researcher at Pew spoke on the findings to the Pittsburgh Gazette: “This would suggest some of the economic difficulties that young adults are experiencing [are] on the level and magnitude that we last saw in the 1930s.” There is no doubt that the pandemic has taken an immense toll on youth economically. As the pandemic began to rage throughout the US, and the country went into lockdown, millions of workers lost their jobs. Many had little or no savings. In fact, according to a report by Data for Progress, over half of people under the age of 45 reported that the $1,200 cash payment from the US federal government covered just a week or two of expenses, compared with a third of older adults. By the end of May of this year, more than 7.7 million workers younger than 30 were unemployed in the US. Over 3 million dropped out of the labor force over the course of a single month, from mid-April to mid-May. The number of young people unemployed at the height of the lockdown amounted to nearly one in three young workers, the highest rate since the country started tracking unemployment by age in 1948. Those who were able to keep their jobs were mostly low-paid essential workers.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 29.2% Year-over-year – From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 10 October U.S. hotel weekly occupancy hit 50% for just the second time since the low point of the pandemic, according to the latest data from STR through 10 October.

4-10 October 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):

Occupancy: 50.0% (-29.2%)

Average daily rate (ADR): US$97.67 (-25.9%)

Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$48.85 (-47.5%)

While a handful of the highest occupancy markets were those in areas affected by natural disasters (i.e. California wildfires), Saturday produced the week’s highest occupancy (65.2%) and ADR (US$110.84), indicating that the leisure and weekend staycation demand seen during the summer may make appearances into the fall. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels – before 2020).So far there has been little business travel pickup that usually happens in the Fall..

Retail Sales increased 1.9% in September – On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.9 percent from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.4 percent from September 2019. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $549.3 billion, an increase of 1.9 percent from the previous month, and 5.4 percent above September 2019. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 1.9% in September.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 6.8% on a YoY basis. The increase in September was above expectations, and sales in July and August were revised up, combined.

U.S. Retail Spending Picked Up Strongly in September – WSJ – American shoppers boosted their spending on vehicles, clothing and many other goods in September, a bright spot amid signs the economic recovery remains fragile.Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday. The gain marked the fifth straight month of retail-sales growth, as consumers prepared for further months of working and studying from home by spending on sporting goods, home improvement and furniture.”We continue to sell the consumer short,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, noting the surprising strength in the retail sales numbers. “It should be a pretty solid holiday season” for gift-giving, he added.Consumer spending is the main engine of the U.S. economy, and overall expenditures remain below pre-pandemic levels because outlays on in-person services such as dentist’s visits, travel and sporting events haven’t fully rebounded.Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said September retail-sales were “very encouraging” but added, “the problem is, when we look out across the horizon, the outlook is much less rosy for consumers.” He pointed to struggling services providers and theimpasse between Congress and President Trump over another trillion-dollar-plus coronavirus relief package.Other recent economic data indicate the economy is losing steam. Monthly job gains have slowed in recent months. New applications for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs,rose last week to the highest level since late August. U.S. industrial production – a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities – fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in September, snapping four months of growth, the Federal Reserve said Friday.The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index ticked slightly higher in early October. Still, the survey found that slowing employment growth, a resurgence in coronavirus infections and the absence of additional federal relief payments prompted consumers to become more concerned about their current economic conditions.JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s tracker of credit- and debit-card transactions showed spending was down 5.7% compared with a year ago through the week ended Oct. 12.Still, economists say the high rate of personal saving – consumers socked away 14.1% of disposable income this August compared with 7.3% a year earlier – has given households fuel to spend, despite the cut to an extra $600 a week in jobless benefits at the end of July.”Inch by inch, consumers are feeling better even though we have this pandemic hanging over us,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, a group that represents retail stores. “The fact that there is less spending on services like travel, some of this money is available and going into retail cash registers,” he added.

BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in September, Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply and accounted for most of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The food index was unchanged, with an increase in the food away from home index offsetting a decline in the food at home index. The energy index rose 0.8 percent in September as the index for natural gas increased 4.2 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September after larger increases in July and August. … The all items index rose 1.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, a slightly larger increase than the 1.3-percent rise for the 12-month period ending August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.7 percent over the last 12 months, the same increase as the period ending August. Overall inflation was at expectations in September. I’ll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Consumer Price Index: September Core at 1.71% – The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.37%, up from 1.31% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.71%, down from 1.74% the previous month and below the Fed’s 2% PCE target.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply and accounted for most of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The food index was unchanged, with an increase in the food away from home index offsetting a decline in the food at home index. The energy index rose 0.8 percent in September as the index for natural gas increased 4.2 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September after larger increases in July and August. The index for used cars and trucks rose 6.7 percent in September, its largest monthly increase since February 1969. The indexes for shelter, new vehicles, and recreation also increased in September. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, and apparel were among those to decline over the month.The all items index rose 1.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, a slightly larger increase than the 1.3-percent rise for the 12-month period ending August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.7 percent over the last 12 months, the same increase as the period ending August. The food index increased 3.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index declined 7.7 percent. Read more Investing.com was looking for a 0.2% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 1.4% for Headline and 1.8% for Core.The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve’s Core inflation target for the CPI’s cousin index, the BEA’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Eased Year-over-year in September – The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in September. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report”. Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for September here. Used cars and trucks increased at a 118% annualized rate in September.This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.5%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.4%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.7%. Core PCE is for August and increased 1.6% year-over-year. Used cars and trucks drove inflation in September. Overall inflation will not be a concern during the crisis.

September U.S. producer prices rose 0.4%, more than expected – U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid a surge in the cost of hotel and motel accommodation, leading to the first year-on-year gain since March. The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed a jump in prices for iron and steel scrap, suggested a slowdown in inflation flagged by data on Tuesday would likely be moderate. Consumer prices slowed in September as supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic eased. The producer price index for final demand rose 0.4% last month after advancing 0.3% in August. In the 12 months through September, the PPI increased 0.4% after falling 0.2% in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI would gain 0.2% in September and rebound 0.2% on a year-on-year basis. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices increased 0.4% in September. The so-called core PPI had increased by 0.3% for three straight months. In the 12 months through September, the core PPI climbed 0.7%. The core PPI rose 0.3% on a year-on-year basis in August. U.S. stock index futures were trading slightly higher. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mostly higher. The government reported on Tuesday that consumer prices increased 0.2% in September, with a 6.7% jump in prices for used cars and trucks accounting for most of the gain. Business closures to slow the spread of the coronavirus caused bottlenecks in the supply chain, pushing up prices of some goods. Many businesses are now operational, but excess capacity in the labor market is limiting their ability to raise prices. Tame inflation should allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero for a while and continue pumping money into the economy, which slipped into recession in February. The U.S. central bank is now more focused on the labor market and has embraced flexible average inflation targeting, which in theory could see policymakers tolerate price increases above the Fed’s 2% target for a period of perhaps several years to offset years in which inflation was lodged below that goal. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 1.6% in the 12 months through August. September’s core PCE price index data is scheduled to be released at the end of this month. With new coronavirus infections surging across the United States and the economic recovery showing signs of stress, inflation could remain tepid. At least 25.5 million people are on unemployment benefits. In September, services rose 0.4% after increasing 0.5% in August. A 3.9% jump in hotel and motel accommodation was a major driver in the rise in prices of services last month. There were also increases in the costs of hardware, building materials and supplies, transportation and hospital inpatient care. Whole food prices rebounded 1.2% after three straight monthly declines. Wholesale gasoline prices fell 2.8%. Prices for goods accelerated 0.4% after edging up 0.1%. Goods prices were driven by a 14.7% surge in prices for iron and steel scrap. Excluding food and energy, goods prices increased 0.4% after climbing 0.3% in August. The dollar has dropped 2.8% against the currencies of the United States’ main trade partners since July.

Class 8 Truck Orders Soar, Up 145% Year Over Year – Orders for heavy duty Class 8 trucks soared again in September, according to preliminary data released by ACT Research. Orders totaled 31,100 units, up 60% sequentially and up 145% from a year prior. Finalized data will be released during the middle of October. It is the order book’s highest level since late 2018, according to TT News. It’s also a positive looking trend that continues to make the case for a V-shaped economic recovery. Class 8 orders had seen significant pressure in the beginning of 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst for ACT Research, commented: “Preliminary data show that September orders for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles posted positive readings for a fourth consecutive month, after 19 consecutive months of negative year-over-year comparisons. In aggregate, Classes 5-8 orders rose 49% from August and improved 88% compared to year-ago September.” He continued: “As orders rebounded to relatively healthy levels early in Q3, most of those orders were targeted at filling open 2020 build slots. With most of that work done by the end of August, we suspect the lion’s share of September’s orders were booked into 2021.” YOY order growth has been accelerating since April The medium duty market has also seen a ‘rising tide’ as a result, Vieth said: “There is a symbiotic relationship between heavy-duty freight rates and medium-duty demand, and clearly, the shift in consumer spending from experiences [services] to goods has been good for the providers of local trucking services.” “My hunch is this is probably the large national guys coming in and doing their annual deal,” said ACT Research Vice President Steve Tam. The 2020 recovery from coronavirus-induced lows near April “I think there is a bit more risk of that happening this time, happening more quickly. The reason is the whole labor dynamic. Their trucks are still out there [parked]. So we don’t need to add as many trucks as it might appear we are going to,” Tam noted said. Tam concluded that the outlook remained strong: “If our freight forecast is correct, they are going to experience some very solid levels of profitability for the remainder of this year and for next year as well.”

Industrial Production Decreased 0.6 Percent in September; 7.1% Below Pre-Crisis Level –From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. The index increased at an annual rate of 39.8 percent for the third quarter as a whole. Although production has recovered more than half of its February to April decline, the September reading was still 7.1 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent in September and was 6.4 percent below February’s level. The output of utilities dropped 5.6 percent, as demand for air conditioning fell by more than usual in September. Mining production increased 1.7 percent in September; even so, it was 14.8 percent below a year earlier. At 101.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 7.3 percent lower in September than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.5 percentage point in September to 71.5 percent, a rate that is 8.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972 – 2019) average but 7.3 percentage points above its low in April.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still well below the level in February 2020.Capacity utilization at 71.5% is 8.3% below the average from 1972 to 2017. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production decreased in September to 101.5. This is 7.1% below the February 2020 level.The change in industrial production was well below consensus expectations, however industrial production in July and August were revised up.

U.S. Industrial Production Fell 0.6% in September – WSJ – U.S. industrial production fell in September, snapping four months of growth, in another sign of a slowing recovery.The Federal Reserve on Friday said its index of industrial production – a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities – fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in September, following an unrevised 0.4% rise in August.Output remains 7.1% below where it was in February, before the pandemic hit, the Fed said.The decline in industrial production shows “a concern that the industrial recovery appears to be stalling with output well below its pre pandemic level,” Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients. A recent increase in new coronavirus cases raises the possibility that factories could shut down once more, he said.Industrial production fell at a record pace in the spring as factories were closed to halt the spread of the coronavirus. The Fed’s index plunged in March and April, rebounded in June and July and has stalled since.Manufacturing, the biggest component of production, fell 0.3%, after rising 1.2% in August.Utility production fell 5.6% due to a decline in air conditioning use, the Fed said. Mining output rose 1.7%. Capacity utilization, a measure of slack in the industrial economy, fell to 71.5% in September from a revised 72% in August. Economists had expected capacity utilization to reach 71.8% in September.

Philly Fed Manufacturing “Picked Up”; NY Fed Manufacturing “Increased Modestly” in October -Note: Be careful with diffusion indexes. This shows a rebound off the bottom – some improvement from May to October – but doesn’t show the level of activity. From the Philly Fed: October 2020 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region picked up this month, according to firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all showed notable improvement. Most future indexes increased and continue to reflect optimism among firms about growth over the next six months. The diffusion index for current activity increased 17 points to 32.3 in October, its fifth consecutive positive reading after reaching long-term lows in April and May … On balance, the firms reported increases in manufacturing employment for the fourth consecutive month. The current employment index, however, fell 3 points to 12.7 this month. This was above the consensus forecast. From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity expanded modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to 10.5, pointing to a slower pace of growth than in September….The index for number of employees moved up five points to 7.2, indicating that employment levels grew. The average workweek index rose nine points to 16.1, a multi-year high, signaling a significant increase in hours worked. This was below the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (blue, through October), and five Fed surveys are averaged (yellow, through September) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through September (right axis). These early reports are mixed, and suggest the ISM manufacturing index might increase slightly in October from the September level.

AMC Entertainment May File For Bankruptcy For Real As Reopening Stalls – Exhibition shares took a beating Tuesday as AMC Entertainment announced its cash might be gone by year end and Walt Disney became the latest big content company to restructure operations around streaming. As theaters reopen to limited audiences without key New York and Los Angeles markets and a paucity of new studio fare, heavily indebted AMC said in an SEC filing that it has enough cash to last until late this year-early next and would require “material” additional capital to operate beyond that point. It’s not a given that capital will appear, or enough of it, reviving speculation on Wall Street that AMC may be forced to file for bankruptcy. “There is a significant risk that these potential sources of liquidity will not be realized or that they will be insufficient to generate the material amounts of additional liquidity that would be required until the Company is able to achieve more normalized levels of operating revenue,” AMC’s filing said. “I really don’t know how they don’t go bankrupt,” said one Wall Street analyst. “They should be out of cash by the end of January. And most companies don’t file when they are minus ten million in cash. The attorneys have to be paid.” At the close, AMC shares had plunged 13%. Cinemark, Marcus and National CineMedia fell, respectively, 8%, 7.2% and 9%. All had stabilized in after-hours trade. AMC is in tight corner, as it acknowledged. It has about $5 billion in debt and high debt means high interest expense. AMC, which is majority owned by Chinese conglomerate Wanda, racked it up pre-pandemic with a string of acquisitions, dividend payments and upgrades to its theaters. In contrast, Cinemark has said it has about 17 months of liquidity and less than half the debt of AMC. (One analyst attributed Cinemark’s stock dip in part the fact that it’s getting increasingly hard to short AMC stock. AMC noted in an SEC filing this morning that it had raised close to $40 million in a stock sale, which is good. But its cash burn is about $115 million a month and as of August 30 it had about $500 million in funds. The company said today it is considering asset sales, joint ventures, the sale of minority investments and new rounds of stock or bond sales. It recently sold off its Baltic theaters and, one source said, had been in talks to divest its Nordic cinemas.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 898,000 – Special technical note on California (two week pause). The DOL reported: In the week ending October 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 898,000, an increase of 53,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 5,000 from 840,000 to 845,000. The 4-week moving average was 866,250, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,250 from 857,000 to 858,250. This does not include the 372,891 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 463,897 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers). The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Jobless claims: only one week’s data, but cause for significant concern – Today marked the biggest increase in new jobless claims in two months, and one of the two biggest increases since May, while the slightly lagging continuing claims continued to decline. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 76,670 to 885,885. After seasonal adjustment (which is far less important than usual at this time), claims rose by 53,000 to 898,000. The 4 week moving average also increased by 8,000 to 866,250: Here is a close-up of the last four months highlighting the overall glacial progress in initial claims since the beginning of August: Continuing claims declined on a non-adjusted basis declined by -1,188,202 to 9,631,790. With seasonal adjustment they declined by 1,165,000 to 10,018,000. On the bright side, both of these numbers are new pandemic lows: Continuing claims are now about 60% below their worst level from the beginning of May, but remain about 3 to 3.5 million higher than their worst levels during the Great Recession. Only one week’s data, but it is a significant concern that claims have risen, after largely stalling for two months. The situation is at best only improving at a snail’s pace, and at worst is deteriorating again as we head into winter and a likely renewed increase in COVID cases.

With Fewer Covid-19 Restrictions, South’s Economy Outperforms Nation – WSJ – When coronavirus cases began surging across the South this summer, the region seemed destined for the same economic setback the Northeast suffered during the spring. But by the end of summer, the South’s economy remained largely unscathed from the wave of infections. Its unemployment rate had fallen to 6.9%, the lowest of any region in August. The number of people employed was 6% lower in August than in February, before most of the country locked down, compared with declines of 10.6% in the Northeast, 8.2% in the West and 7% in the Midwest. Consumers continued to spend at relatively high rates. Many economists say the pace of economic recovery depends on the path of the virus. The South’s economic resilience shows the relationship is more complicated, at least in the short term. The South is diverse with 16 states, including Texas, Florida, Virginia and Oklahoma, and not all shared the same pattern. Nonetheless, as a whole it owes its stronger economic trajectory since the initial shutdown not to success in containing the virus but to its relatively aggressive reopening of business and a greater willingness by consumers to venture out despite risks. “In the South, I think that the more pro-business policies that Southern governors have largely followed for decades allowed much more flexibility earlier,” said Mark Vitner, a Charlotte, N.C.-based economist at Wells Fargo Securities. “We did see a rise in Covid infections over the summer. That slowed the pace of reopenings, but it didn’t reverse it.” Public-health experts say the South’s early reopening came at a price: higher rates of virus infections and deaths starting over the summer, illustrating a trade-off between the economy and health.

Outrage builds among autoworkers over 84-hour workweek for skilled trades workers at FCA Sterling Heights Assembly Plant – The news that Fiat Chrysler (FCA) management, with the support of the United Auto Workers (UAW), is implementing 12-hour days and seven-day workweeks for skilled trades workers at Sterling Heights Assembly Plant (SHAP) north of Detroit has touched a nerve among autoworkers across the US and Canada. Since it was published Friday night, the World Socialist Web Site’s original article on the move has been read tens of thousands of times. The 12-hour, seven-day work schedule, which was forced on skilled trades without a vote by the UAW, creates additional safety hazards on top of facilitating the further spread of the coronavirus in the plants. It negates the eight-hour day, one of the most cherished rights won in generations of struggle, which the UAW summarily abolished by imposing the Alternative Work Schedule (AWS). Skilled trades, as well as production workers, have already been working 10-hour shifts without payment of overtime after eight hours under the AWS. The SHAP Rank-and-File Safety Committee issued a statement yesterday demanding the immediate rescinding of the move and a return to the eight-hour day. The statement explained: “The eight-hour day is not only for our own health and safety and to allow us to recover physically. It is also necessary so that we can live like human beings. We all have lives outside of the plant, which we will not abandon. … We must take matters into our own hands again and organize ourselves.” The situation at SHAP is far from unique. A skilled trades worker at FCA’s Sterling Stamping plant, which is adjacent to SHAP, reports that skilled trades workers there are also being forced to work six days per week because of delays installing new machinery. “I also know that there are more cases of COVID-19 here than what they are telling people. I thought this was supposed to be reported.” Both the veil of silence by the company and the UAW, as well as the drive to reopen the economy by the Trump administration with the support of the Democratic Party, the worker said, are lulling some workers into a false sense of security over the spread of COVID-19. “They just had a guy out for coronavirus, but at his work area there is a community coffee pot, which workers drank from. I was like, ‘Are you out of your mind?'”

Goodbye Middle Class- Half Of All American Workers Made Less Than $34,248.45 Last Year – If you are making less than $3,000 a month, you have plenty of company, because about half of the country is in the exact same boat. The Social Security Administration just released new wage statistics for 2019, and they are pretty startling. To me, the most alarming thing in the entire report is the fact that the median yearly wage was just $34,248.45 last year. In other words, half of all American workers made less than $34,248.45 in 2019, and half of all American workers made more than $34,248.45. That isn’t a whole lot of money. In fact, when you divide $34,248.45 by 12 you get just $2,854.05. Needless to say, it is not easy to survive in America today on just $2,854.05 a month, and this may help to explain why we have been seeing so many people fall out of the middle class in recent years.And of course all of the figures that I am sharing with you in this article are just for 2019. This year, we have seen more than 63 million Americans file new claims for unemployment benefits as the U.S. economy has imploded during this pandemic, and so the final wage numbers for 2020 could be quite a bit worse than the numbers for 2019 were. Please keep that in mind as you go through the rest of this article.Once upon a time in America, a single income could easily support a middle class household in most cases, but those days are long gone.The cost of living has been rising far faster than our paychecks have, and as a result many Americans have been working themselves to the bone just to survive financially from month to month.To give you an idea of just how bad things have gotten, I would like to share with you some key numbers from the report that the Social Security Administration just released …

• 32.26 percent of American workers made less than $20,000 last year.
• 44.79 percent of American workers made less than $30,000 last year.
• 56.46 percent of American workers made less than $40,000 last year.
• 65.91 percent of American workers made less than $50,000 last year.

Today, the poverty level for a household of five in the United States is $30,680.That means that close to half of all workers in this country do not even make enough to get a family of five above the poverty level.

NY wedding with 10,000 attendees shut down amid COVID-19 – New York officials this week shut down a wedding expected to draw 10,000 guests amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) confirmed on Saturday. Cuomo said during a press briefing that officials investigated the planned event that would violate restrictions on large gatherings in New York during the pandemic. The governor said State Health Commissioner Howard Zucker signed an order “saying you can’t have a wedding in these locations that is over the gathering guidance.” The event was scheduled to take place on Monday in the Williamsburg neighborhood of New York City. However, it was outside the targeted red, orange or yellow zones tracking clusters of COVID-19 cases. Beth Garvey, special counsel and senior adviser to the governor, told reporters during the Saturday briefing that “the information that our investigation revealed was that upwards of 10,000 individuals were planned to attend.” Garvey said the order was served alongside the New York City Sheriff’s Office on Friday night. Garvey said officials have not received any response to the order, although individuals served with the health notices can request a hearing. “The city is aware if it,” Cuomo added. “I’m sure that they’re going to have people monitoring.” “Look, you can get married. You just can’t have 1,000 people at your wedding,” he added. “You get the same result at the end of the day. You’re married. It’s also cheaper.”

Live music industry in the US faces “massive collapse” due to pandemic -The indifference of the political establishment in the US – and everywhere else, for that matter – to popular economic hardship is hard to overestimate.In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, millionaire politicians – representatives of the banks and large corporations – from both major parties demonstrate on a daily basis how impervious they are to the loss of jobs and income experienced by great numbers of people, along with the threat of evictions and foreclosures and the growth of hunger and homelessness. The overall devastation has implications that go beyond even the immediately economic situation, as desperate as that is. The coronavirus crisis is presently threatening to wipe out a considerable portion of cultural life in the US. We have reported in the WSWS on the circumstances facing musicians,popular and classical, along with visual artists and others. The news continues to be dire. The situation has no precedent, in wartime or any other period.In regard to live concerts, for example, the life blood of the popular music world, an article on the website Live for Live Music notes that when the pandemic erupted in early March, “we started compiling a list of all the scheduled shows, tours, and festivals affected by the outbreak.” As the situation worsened, the article continues, “it became clear that documenting every canceled/postponed show was a fool’s errand. We quickly pivoted to building a list of concerts that were still not canceled. That list, too, rapidly proved to be pointless. To borrow a concept from the sports world, there’s no need for a box score if the whole game is rained out.” In August, NPR reported that the “independent live music industry sits … on the brink of catastrophe.” Thousands of concert halls and clubs remained closed. As the pandemic dragged on, it was creating “an existential crisis for these venues and the critical role they play in music scenes and communities across the US. The Barracuda in Austin, The Satellite in Los Angeles and Portland’s Port City Music Hall are just a few of the venues that have closed for good in recent weeks, with many more at risk of going under.”

2 Artists Dominating American Music Charts Both Died Before Their Albums Dropped – NYC rapper Pop Smoke’s debut album, “Shoot for the Stars, Aim for the Moon”, has dominated the Billboard charts since its July debut. This past month, it sold the second-most albums of any artist. Oddly, the artist who came in first was another rapper, Juice WRLD, whose album “Legends Never Die” is the No. 1 album in the country.As Bloomberg reported Wednesday, the two artists are topping its ranking of the most influential figures in music for 2020. It’s an appropriately morbid trend for 2020, a year that has been marked by images of the sick and suffering, even more so than – well – many of the years that preceded it since the beginning of the 21st century. But it also highlights an alarming trend in rap music, a genre that has taken over the popular music industry as the best-selling (and most profitable) form of musical entertainment, second only to massive arena tours featuring aging rockers like the Police and Guns N’ Roses – or pop stars like Taylor Swift. Many top-selling rap artists have been implicated or convicted of violent crimes, including murder, manslaughter, attempted murder and armed robbery.It’s a trend that has dovetailed with the surge of gun violence in America’s cities, including Chicago, NYC, LA and even smaller cities like Baltimore and Detroit.During the gang wars that rocked the south side of Chicago earlier this year, another up-and-coming rapper was shot and killed. Pop Smoke was shot and killed during a home invasion back in February. Five suspects have been arrested and are awaiting trial on murder charges.The circumstances behind Juice WRLD’s death were decidedly less violent; he overdosed on drugs he reportedly swallowed for fear they would be discovered by police. He’s far from the only rapper in recent years to die from drug overdoses; two other chart-topping rap artists, Mac Miller and Lil Peep, have also died of overdoses over the past few years.Then again, violence has been part of rap virtually since its birth in the late 1970s/early 1980s. Tupac and Biggie, among the biggest rappers of the 90s, were famously killed in unsolved drive-by shootings. And 50 Cent, the executive producer of Pop Smoke’s album, was shot 9 times, but survived. The man suspected of organizing the attack was later shot and killed, though no charges have been filed.

New York Philharmonic cancels entire season due to pandemic The New York Philharmonic canceled its entire 2020-21 season on Tuesday for the first time in its 178-year history due to the coronavirus pandemic. The symphony orchestra officially canceled its performances from Jan. 6 to June 13. The New York Philharmonic has been shut down since March and previously canceled all shows through Jan. 5. The decision was made “in compliance with New York State health regulations and on the advice of health officials,” according to a press release. New York state’s limited fourth phase of reopening prohibits and labels live indoor performances as “high risk arts and entertainment activities.” New York Philharmonic President and CEO Deborah Borda called the change of plans “devastating” but said the 2020-21 season will not be “a silent season.” “The cancellation of an entire New York Philharmonic season is not only unprecedented – it is devastating, both in its impact on the morale of musicians and audiences, and in its profound economic consequences,” she said. “We know there was no other choice, but we also know that music is most meaningful when shared with listeners in a common space.”

“Player Protests/Politics” Cited As Driving NBA Finals Ratings Collapse – Ratings for the NBA Finals continue to see a historic collapse. Game 3 of the finals averaged just a 3.1 rating and 5.94 million viewers, making it “the least watched and lowest rated NBA Finals game on record,” according to Yahoo Sports. It is the latest chapter in an NBA Finals that has continued to set the bar lower and lower for itself in terms of ratings: In a poll on Yahoo Sports with 22,266 responses, people were asked why they thought the NBA’s ratings had dropped off. Player protests/politics was the overwhelming favorite, at 61%, as to why people are turning away from the NBA. Although we may not see those in the industry brave enough to admit that the politics are causing a problem just yet: Recall, just days ago we noted that Game 2 also saw a ratings collapse of 68% to all time lows. It appears that viewers are no longer interested in the political and social justice messages of the NBA but rather were tuning in for (believe it or not) actual basketball. As the balance of the league has tipped from less sport to more activism, viewers are tuning out. Game 2 of the NBA Finals saw a major collapse in viewers, with just 4.5 million people tuning in. This is down 68% from last year’s game two, we noted. In fact, the ratings made Game 2 the least watched NBA Finals game on record, dropping below the 7.41 Game 1, which was the lowest viewed finals opener in history. There really doesn’t seem to be much of a spin that the NBA can put on the terrible ratings, other than the league has simply lost the interest of many who would have once tuned in. In fact, one of the league’s most “outspoken” voices on oppression and racism, LeBron James, should have been the feature draw for this year’s finals. Instead, it appears he could be exactly what is turning viewers away. We have also been documenting the recent ratings collapse that the NFL has suffered in the midst of turning its league into a political movement over the last few months. In early October the NFL reached out to players, telling them “not to worry” about the decline in ratings. Also in denial, they blamed the Presidential race for the drop in ratings, telling players: “The 2020 presidential election and other national news events are driving substantial consumption of cable news, taking meaningful share of audience from all other programming. Historically, NFL viewership has declined in each of the past six presidential elections.”

30 weeks into the COVID-19 pandemic and workers desperately need stimulus – EPI – Another 1.3 million people applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits last week. That includes 898,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 373,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). PUA is the federal program for workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance, like gig workers. It provides up to 39 weeks of benefits, but it is set to expire at the end of this year. The 1.3 million who applied for UI last week was roughly unchanged (a decline of 38,000) from the prior week’s figures. Last week was the 30th straight week total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession, and if that comparison is restricted to regular state claims – since we didn’t have PUA in the Great Recession – initial claims last week were greater than the second-worst week of the Great Recession. However, trends over time in initial claims should be interpreted with caution right now because California initial claims data are being imputed because they have temporarily paused processing initial claims to address problems in their system.Republicans in the Senate allowed the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits to expire at the end of July, so last week was the 11th week of unemployment in this pandemic for which recipients did not get the extra $600. Hope for another stimulus bill before February is waning. The House passed a $2.2 trillion relief package earlier this month, but Senate Republicans balked at the $1.8 trillion relief package Treasury Secretary Mnuchin offered to Nancy Pelosi. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced on Tuesday that the Senate will take up a very small relief bill next week, but it seems clear that getting something done with less than 20 days until the election will be exceedingly difficult. It is looking more and more like stimulus talks will fail, which means the extra $600 is not coming back anytime soon, and the economy will also not be getting other crucial stimulus measures it needs to bounce back, including aid to state and local governments.Most states provide 26 weeks (six months) of regular benefits, and October is the eighth month of this crisis. That means many workers are exhausting their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 1.2 million, from 11.2 million to 10.0 million.

COVID-19 coverage safety net has plenty of holes in US — COVID-19 can do more than torment patients physically. It also clobbers some financially.Even though many insurers and the U.S. government have offered to pick up or waive costs tied to the virus, holes remain for big bills to slip through and surprise patients.People who weren’t able to get a test showing they had the virus and those who receive care outside their insurance network are particularly vulnerable. Who provides the coverage and how hard a patient fights to lower a bill also can matter. There are no good estimates for how many patients have been hit with big bills because of the coronavirus. But the pandemic that arrived earlier this year exposed well-known gaps in a system that mixes private insurers, government programs and different levels of coverage. More than 7 million people have had confirmed cases of COVID-19 since the virus started spreading earlier this year in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University. The vast majority of those patients will incur few medical costs as they wait for their body to fight off mild symptoms. But patients who visit emergency rooms or wind up hospitalized may be vulnerable financially. Melissa Szymanski spent five hours in a Hartford, Connecticut, emergency room in late March and wound up with bills totaling about $3,200. The problem: The 30-year-old elementary school teacher couldn’t get a test even though she was fighting a fever and her doctor wanted a chest X-ray. At the time, the hospital was limiting tests, and she didn’t qualify. Szymanski was never diagnosed with COVID-19 at the hospital and her insurer, Anthem BlueCross BlueShield, said she would have to pay the high deductible on her plan before coverage started. Separately, the federal government has said it will reimburse hospitals that treat uninsured patients for COVID-19. And 78 insurers have waived expenses like deductibles or copayments for individuals covered by their plans, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Many large employers that pay their own health care costs have done the same thing. But these waivers are not universal, and they have limits. Some will expire later this year.

Utility shutoff notices begin going out to Granite Staters – Several thousand utility customers around the state will soon receive shutoff notices in their mailboxes after the lifting of a moratorium on shutoffs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Utility officials said the shutoff notices are being sent out now. “The residential customer disconnection notices began going out this week,” said Alec O’Meara, of Unitil. “I believe 1,000 letters were sent out this week.” >> Get help: Apply for fuel, energy assistance programs The next few weeks could be critical for families who have fallen behind on utility payments. Some were previously given leniency because of rules related to the coronavirus crisis. “For the next few weeks, the moratorium has been lifted and there are people who could be faced with a disconnect, and that’s why it’s important to get ahold of community action agencies in the state,” said Ryan Clouthier, of Southern New Hampshire Services. For many families, this type of financial stress is new. There are options, but people have to make the call. Eversource and Unitil have expanded payment options, and officials said they want to help. “We are offering flexible payment options that our customers can call to spread out the remainder of their balance over 12 months, no money down, no fees and no interest,” said Kaitlyn Woods, of Eversource. “If your income situation has changed, there are income-eligibility programs that may be available to you,” O’Meara said. “There are payment plans available to you. There are a variety of fees that can be waived.” Community action partnerships work with utility companies to help families make payments, and they expect many more applications this year. In the wake of the pandemic, community action partnerships statewide adjusted their income guidelines because many more New Hampshire families would likely need help. “To give you an idea, for a family of four, that would be roughly $69,686,” Clouthier said. The assistance money does not have to be repaid. It is first come, first served, so residents are advised to file their applications soon.

‘Log off! Log off!’ teacher orders students when sexual assault livestreamed during first grader’s remote learning class – An 18-year-old man out on bond for a gun case was held without bail after he livestreamed himself during a sexual act with a 7-year-old first grader on break from her Chicago Public Schools remote learning class on Thursday prosecutors said. Catrell A. Walls, of the West Chesterfield neighborhood on the South Side, was arrested Thursday afternoon shortly after 3:30 p.m., after he was seen molesting the girl, police said. Walls, charged with predatory criminal sexual assault of a victim under 13 years old, appeared for a bond hearing Saturday afternoon before Judge Charles Beach. Police were made aware of the attack when the girl’s teacher saw it on a computer screen during a Google classroom e-learning session. In addition to Thursday afternoon’s incident, which alarmed multiple students who viewed it and were heard asking, “What’s going on, what’s happening?” the victim told authorities Walls has a history of sexually assaulting her, for the last year, Turano said. “The victim disclosed ‘he made me put my lips on (him) and this has happened before, and I don’t want my daddy to know, it’s a secret,”‘ Turano said, quoting the victim. This was broadcast in the daytime on a website accessible to many young students, while the girl was on a break from the class during a time when her teacher asked the students to turn off their cameras and mute themselves. The 7-year-old muted herself but did not turn off the camera. When the teacher saw them performing oral sex, she repeatedly ordered all the students to log off and then called out the victim’s name and told her to turn off the camera. “She saw the defendant close the computer,” Turano said. The teacher called the police, the school principal and the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services. Officers went to the victim’s location, and Walls was arrested after she identified him.

Columbus City Schools pushes back start of in-person classes – Columbus City Schools has pushed back the start of in-person classes, originally scheduled to resume Oct. 19. Now students in grades K-8 and preschool will begin the transition with two weeks of optional orientation sessions starting that day, meaning students won’t actually be required to step into buildings until Nov. 2 at the earliest, according to a Monday announcement. Nov. 2 is the new in-person start date for students in grades K-5, while those in grades 6-8 will resume on Nov. 9. All students who receive special education services who have complex needs will begin on Nov. 2. Students participating in career-technical programs at Columbus Downtown High School and Fort Hayes Career Center will return on Oct. 26. All other high school students will continue to learn remotely from home until further notice. “It’s like starting school again for the first time,” Columbus Board of Education President Jennifer Adair told The Dispatch. “We want everyone to get used to the new health and safety protocols.” In a Zoom call with reporters Monday afternoon, Superintendent Talisa Dixon said the reason for the delay was twofold: to ensure that students and families are prepared for the new learning format, which will have them returning to buildings twice weekly, and ongoing negotiations with the district’s labor unions. Earlier that day, Adair said the new orientation plan was created “in collaboration” with the district’s teachers union, which had expressed concerns about the previous plan that called for students to return Oct. 19, which it hadn’t formally agreed to during negotiations. But John Coneglio, president of the Columbus Education Association, said the union hadn’t agreed to the plan announced Monday either. “We are not on the same page at all on any of this,” Coneglio told The Dispatch. “Right now we have some serious concerns and trust issues, and different interpretations of agreements that were made. That communication was not approved by the union.” The district’s “unilateral decisions” are causing confusion among families, Coneglio said. In addition to the teachers union, a group of parents has also expressed concerns about a faster return to classes, citing safety concerns and a lack of communication. They delivered a copy of an online petition with 1,200 signatures to the district’s offices on Monday morning.

COVID-19 outbreaks erupt in Florida public schools as state demands further reopenings – Public schools in Florida are experiencing a dangerous growth of COVID-19 infections as the state government aggressively pursues in-class instruction in locations ravaged by the pandemic. The Florida Department of Health reported 5,570 new COVID-19 cases Sunday, which brought the total number of cases to a staggering 734,491, with over 15,300 deaths. Another 48 people died in the state Monday, the highest figure in the US. As a consequence of the reckless and homicidal back-to-school drive demanded by state and county officials, some of the hardest-hit areas have begun to report outbreaks instantly after reopening. In Miami-Dade County, multiple coronavirus cases have been confirmed since students began returning to classrooms last week. The infections follow an order from county officials that 40,000 students return to schools for the final phases of the district’s reopening plan. Despite widespread opposition to the reopening of schools among educators and school staff, Florida’s Republican Govenor Ron DeSantis is pushing ahead with the resumption of in-person learning. The Florida Education Associaiton (FEA), the largest teachers union in the state, has done nothing to mobilize educators and halt the premature reopening of schools. Instead, the union has resorted to using fruitless television ads to “pressure” DeSantis to release COVID-19 data related to schools. In August, the FEA fraudulently touted as a “victory” a Leon County court ruling that granted local school boards and districts the ability to override state-mandated reopening requirements and decide locally whether to delay or resume in-person instruction. This minor concession has been short-lived, however, after a three-judge panel of the 1st District Court of Appeals sided with the state last Friday, overturned the ruling of Leon County Judge Charles Dodson that the reopening mandates of Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran violated the Florida Constitution. Demonstrating the bankruptcy of the FEA’s strategy of relying on the court system to gurantee the health and safety of students and educators, the appeals court said the union-led case lacked legal standing and was asking courts to decide “non-justiciable political questions.” The panel further said the union’s arguments failed to demonstrate that Corcoran’s order was “arbitrary and capricious.” The outcome of the court case has further emboldened the DeSantis administration to order the reopening of schools all across the state and pave the way for a massive resurgence of COVID-19. Confirmed COVID-19 cases have already been linked to four Miami-Dade County schools, with three students and one employee testing positive on Friday.

State and federal governments conceal COVID-19 outbreaks in US schools – Across the United States, the locations of COVID-19 outbreaks in schools are being deliberately hidden from the public, in order to prevent teachers and parents from drawing the conclusion that face-to-face instruction should stop. At the federal level, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Education have no programs in place whatsoever to track coronavirus cases in schools or colleges. The list of states not reporting outbreaks in schools includes California, Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Alabama, West Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Delaware. The rest of the states are split between having either limited data or district-level data, which often does not disclose the specific schools where an outbreak occurs. Significantly, the locations of reported cases are known by state governments, and it is well within the capabilities of the state and federal government to report case locations. They are deliberately concealing this information as part of the broader back-to-work campaign to force parents to work in unsafe conditions, all to produce profits for the financial oligarchy. The COVID Monitor website, which independently tracks coronavirus cases in school, has reported 42,778 cases in K-12 schools as of this writing, with most cases occurring after schools reopened en masse in late July. This figure is certainly an under-count, but nevertheless illustrates the criminality of school reopenings. It is worth examining some of the specific efforts by the state governments to cover up the locations of outbreaks in schools. In Illinois, the state government knows of at least 44 outbreaks at school buildings around the state and has deliberately withheld the location of these outbreaks from the public. The state’s Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker has endorsed school reopenings, stating, “I’m very much in favor of trying to get our kids back into in-person learning.” Classes started in-person during mid-August for most schools in the state, with an uptick in cases corresponding with this development. As of October 2, at least 8,668 children ages 5-17 have tested positive for the virus across Illinois, with five children dying in the same age range. More than 1,800 public schools are open for in-person instruction, with roughly a quarter of students and staff attending only in-person and almost three-quarters attending at least partially in-person.

Teacher death toll mounts as districts across the US push forward with school reopenings – As more school districts across the US continue to reopen for in-person instruction, without fail they assert to their communities that safety is of the utmost concern. Just two months since schools began reopening in late July, the costs to human health and life expose these assertions as lies. There have been at least 47,376 cases reported in K-12 schools so far this year, and at least 37 educators have died since August 1, all of which were entirely preventable. These figures, as damning as they are, are surely an undercount, as state and federal governments are actively working toconceal the spread of the virus .In the past two weeks alone, eight teachers have died from COVID-19. Reports of deaths will continue to pour in over the coming weeks and months, and in all likelihood begin to include children, unless an independent intervention of educators, parents and students across the country is organized to stop the deadly reopening in its tracks. TheEducators Rank-and-File Safety Committee is fighting to build this movement through a network of local committees controlled by educators, parents and students, which have been formed in New York, Los Angeles, Detroit, Texas, Florida, Tennessee and Pennsylvania.The most recently reported teacher death came on October 9, when Choua Yang, 53, died after battling COVID-19 for over a month. She was the principal since 2008 and CEO since 2020 of Prairie Seeds Academy Charter School in Brooklyn Park, Minnesota. The school has been closed for in-person instruction since March, and though students have remained off campus, some staff have been working in the building. In Oklahoma City, 50-year-old Laurie Cochran, a 4th grade teacher at Kaiser Elementary School, died on October 5 after being infected for roughly ten days, according to her family. Kaiser Elementary had already lost a teacher to the virus this school year, Sherry White, on September 1. Greg Worley, Assistant Principal at Kaiser Elementary, said that the two teachers were treasured by students and coworkers, and that they were the “epitome of what you want in a teacher,” quoted KOCO News. In Stanly County, North Carolina, 3rd grade teacher Julie Davis, 49, died on October 4, two months after in-person classes resumed in the district. Davis became an educator 18 years ago, after a career as an accountant, after the Columbine school shooting inspired her to become a teacher in the hopes that she could “change a child’s life, and maybe that wouldn’t happen again. And years later, she touched everybody,” her daughter told ABC News .

350,000 US education jobs slashed in September – K-12 schools and colleges across the United States have issued yet another round of mass layoffs stemming from the economic fallout of the pandemic, with at least 350,000 education jobs slashed in September alone. According to the latest jobs report from the Department of Labor, employment in local government education fell by 231,000 and state government education by 49,000, while employment in private education decreased by 69,000. The September layoffs come four months after an unprecedented 1.4 million layoffs to education workers throughout the country as a result of the pandemic. As was the case in April and May, the layoffs have affected in most part classified employees such as bus drivers, food service workers, campus assistants, paraeducators and other school employees. These school staff have been added to the growing mass of tens of millions facing evictions, hunger and destitution. These mass layoffs take place as deadly school reopenings are pushed by federal and state governments across the US, in order to get students back into the classrooms to force their parents back into workplaces. Over 30 school employees and students have already died since schools began to reopen en masse in late July, while at least 42,778 students and educators have been infected and the health and lives of millions of people have been placed at risk. School districts across the nation are facing financial disaster and ruin. Researchers at the Learning Policy Institute have estimated the pandemic’s financial costs to public schools to be between $199 billion and $246 billion, which includes both the increased costs of dealing with COVID-19 and the loss of state revenue. Furthermore, there have been record declines in enrollment throughout the country. Though there is not yet comprehensive national data on enrollment declines, a recent report from NPR shows there have been major reductions in dozens of school districts across at least 20 states. Of note, Los Angeles Unified School District in California, the second largest district in the country, has reported a drop in enrollment by 11,000 in students, while Miami-Dade County Public School District in Florida has lost at least 8,000 students, primarily from pre-K and kindergarten students.

College Enrollment Slid This Fall, With First-Year Populations Down 16% – WSJ – Undergraduate enrollment tumbled this fall at many colleges and universities around the country, dragged down by a sharp drop in first-year students whose school plans were upended by the coronavirus pandemic. Overall, undergraduate populations shrank by 4%, and first-year student counts fell by 16.1%, according to new data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Graduate enrollment increased by 2.7%. The tally includes 9.2 million students, from more than half of schools that report data to the Clearinghouse. Would-be students have interrupted their college aspirations for a range of reasons, including not wanting to take classes online, concern over traveling to places that were considered Covid-19 hot spots and financial strains related to family job losses. The number of men enrolled in undergraduate programs fell by 6.4%, compared with a 2.2% drop among women, exacerbating a longstanding imbalance in the gender makeup of college students.By school type, enrollment declines were sharpest at community colleges, off 9.4% overall and 22.7% for first-year students.That sector generally fares well during economic downturns, with out-of-work adults looking to add skills and younger students trying to save money on tuition. This time, initial discussions of a quick, V-shaped economic recovery may have left unemployed adultsthinking it wasn’t worth it to invest months or years in a new certificate or degree program, said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.And, he said, those who steered clear of enrolling as freshmen at community colleges likely did so because of strained family finances or other obstacles, not because of personal preference for a campus experience.”I fear that many of those students will never get back,” he said.Enrollment at four-year public colleges and universities fell by 1.4% overall, and 13.7% for first-year undergraduates. At private, nonprofit colleges, those declines were 2% and 11.8%, respectively.

College Enrollments Drop Due to Covid, Adding to Budget Damage Yves Smith – It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to learn that the number of students attending college has fallen due to Covid-19, 16% for incoming students and 4% overall, with the total decline greatest among foreign students. Those foreign students, who pay top dollar, have been staying away first due to China bashing (the Chinese were very well represented) and then due to Covid risks and travel restrictions. Remember that the drop in enrollment comes on top of other hits to revenues. We gave the broad outlines of how Covid-19 translated into a grim future for higher education in May: As our May piece anticipated, the shift to online instruction is a net loser. Students on campus generate lots of other income. Some schools like Princeton have lowered their tuition as an acknowledgement that online instruction is inferior to live classes; holdouts like Harvard have gotten a lot of criticism but have not relented.The spate of articles on enrollment levels in higher educational institutions breaks out the results by type of organization as well as other categories, like the fall in male enrollment (6.4%) versus female (2.2%). But one surprise is the big hit to community colleges, which saw a 22.7% drop in enrollment. From the Wall Street Journal: We had thought that young people might switch from four-year degree programs to the more practical instruction that community colleges offer. What appears to have happened instead is that the devastation in lower-income jobs hurt the ability of students to work part-time to participate in those programs, and may also have reduced the attractiveness of some programs.From Bloomberg:Empty seats are inflicting financial damage on colleges already reeling from the pandemic. Earlier this year, when the virus began spreading, many schools cleared their campuses of students and refunded housing costs. With enrollment waning, revenue from tuition, dormitories and dining halls is being hurt at a time when some institutions are posting low endowment returns.“The colleges are losing billions of dollars,” said Jack Maguire, founder of the enrollment-consulting firm Maguire Associates and former dean of admissions at Boston College. “It may not be the end of it if this new waves hits and students are sent home again.” On the one hand, it’s hard to feel sorry for most of these institutions, since it’s become evident that the beancounters are in charge and the educational mission has become a mere product, and too often crapified in the process. Add to that the fact that the adminisphere and top level salary bloat is inextricably tied to relentless increases in higher educational costs and student debt burdens. But as with the economy overall, the ones that will take the hits first are low level workers like food service personnel and adjuncts.

University warns about college students trying to contract COVID-19 to make money donating plasma with antibodies – Brigham Young University-Idaho warned on Monday about accounts of college students “intentionally” trying to contract COVID-19 in order to make money by donating plasma with antibodies. The Idaho university issued a statement saying officials were “deeply troubled” by the alleged behavior and “is actively seeking evidence of such conduct among our student body.” “Students who are determined to have intentionally exposed themselves or others to the virus will be immediately suspended from the university and may be permanently dismissed,” the university stated.”The contraction and spread of COVID-19 is not a light matter,” the statement continued. “Reckless disregard for health and safety will inevitably lead to additional illness and loss of life in our community.”University officials noted that they had previously cautioned last month that if Idaho or Madison County continue to experience surges in cases, the university may have to switch to fully online learning. The release also encouraged students who are participating in this behavior to consult financial and mental health resources, saying, “There is never a need to resort to behavior that endangers health or safety in order to make ends meet.”Brigham Young University-Idaho has confirmed 109 COVID-19 cases among students and 22 cases among employees.The Food and Drug Administration permitted convalescent plasmas from COVID-19 survivors to be used as an emergency therapy for those with coronavirus. The FDA states that the plasma that has antibodies “may be effective in treating COVID-19 and that the known and potential benefits of the product outweigh the known and potential risks.” Two potential plasma donation locations near the university are the Grifols Biomat USA Rexburg location and the BioLife Plasma Services, NPR reported. The first’s website says it gives donors $100 per visit and East Idaho News reported the latter provides $200 for each of the donor’s first two visits.

Alabama coach Nick Saban cleared to coach against Georgia days after COVID-19 diagnosis – Alabama coach Nick Saban cleared to coach against Georgia days after COVID-19 diagnosis – University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban has been cleared to coach the team’s game against Georgia from the sidelines Saturday night after testing positive for the coronavirus earlier this week. “Due to the fact that Coach Saban has remained completely symptom-free and had five negative PCR tests, split between two separate labs, the initial test from Wednesday is considered a false positive under the SEC protocols,” Alabama team physician Jimmy Robinson said in a statement, according to CBS Sports. “Again, that initial positive result came from an outside lab we’ve used to supplement the SEC mandated testing.” The school announced Wednesday that Saban, 68, and the school’s athletic director had both received positive test results. All coaches, players and staff associated with the team are regularly tested, the school says. Upon learning he had tested positive, Saban told local media outlets he immediately went home and has been in self-isolation since. Several games scheduled for Saturday in the Southeastern Conference were forced to postpone or cancel due to positive test results among players, coaches or staff.

Florida’s Dan Mullen learns the hard way about COVID-19 — The coronavirus is relentless, insidious, infectious and completely oblivious to your opinions. Last Saturday afternoon, Florida coach Dan Mullen was pushing for his school to allow some 90,000 fans to jam Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville for this week’s matchup with LSU. By Wednesday, the game was postponed due to an outbreak of COVID-19 among Florida players and coaches. By Saturday, Mullen announced he had COVID-19 himself. Just like that. There is no need to pile on Mullen. After all, the 48-year-old is stuck dealing with self-isolation, an uncertain schedule and a team full of positive tests. And hopefully that is the worst of it. Hopefully he and his players only experience mild, if any, symptoms. You never know with COVID though.

China Exports Supercharged by Medical Equipment and Work-From-Home Gear – WSJ – China’s exports and imports both posted strong gains in September, as a recovery in global and domestic demand provided another boost to the world’s second-largest economy. China’s imports from global markets jumped 13.2% in September from a year earlier after falling 2.1% in August, according to data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs. Exports topped market expectations for a sixth straight month, rising 9.9% from a year earlier in September – the quickest pace in more than a year – as China continued to benefit from coronavirus-fueled demand for medical equipment and work-from-home electronic products. Taken together, the strong trade figures point to a robust recovery that most economists expect will show China regaining its pre-coronavirus growth trajectory of between 5% and 6% when it reports third-quarter gross domestic product figures on Monday – and through the end of the year. “In coming months, we expect the export strength to persist and imports may also continue to expand on the back of continued recovery in domestic activity,” Goldman Sachs economists told clients in a note Tuesday. China’s surprisingly strong import number reflects improving domestic demand and Beijing’s willingness to fulfill commitments made in the phase one trade deal signed with the U.S. in January, which includes promises by China to buy more American agricultural and energy products. China’s purchases from its top three trading partners accelerated rapidly last month, with imports from the U.S. rebounding by the largest margin. China’s imports from the U.S. soared 24.8% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from a 1.8% increase in August. Though the coronavirus has upended economies around the world this year and contributed to China falling well short of the purchase commitments it made in January, American and Chinese trade officials reaffirmed their commitment to the trade deal during a telephone call in late August.

China Growth Limits Global Economic Damage From Pandemic, IMF Says – WSJ – The global economic collapse caused by the coronavirus won’t be as severe as estimated earlier, the International Monetary Fund predicted Tuesday, thanks to strong government intervention world-wide and a swift recovery in China. The world’s gross domestic product is forecast to decline by 4.4% this year, not as sharp as the 5.2% drop the IMF projected in June but still the most severe downturn since the Great Depression. World output will grow 5.2% in 2021, down from an earlier estimate of 5.4%.

Mumbai’s millions get their power back after massive outage (Reuters) – Millions went without power in India’s financial capital Mumbai and surrounding areas for hours on Monday, after a grid failure triggered its first major blackout in more than two years. The outage stranded thousands of train passengers, disrupted online college exams and affected mobile telephone services before power was restored to most parts of the city of some 20 million. The grid failure was caused by “technical problems” during maintenance work, the energy minister of Mumbai’s home state of Maharashtra said. In mid-2018, a fire at a transformer sparked similar power cuts in the city and its suburbs. Throughout Monday’s breakdown, Mumbai’s international airport and the country’s two main stock exchanges located in the city, the National Stock Exchange and BSE, operated normally, their spokespeople said. “Power supply to all essential services in Mumbai, suburbs … have been restored. Non-essential services will also be restored shortly,” Maharashtra energy minister Nitin Raut said on Twitter. The government-run Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport agency, Adani Power Ltd and Tata Power Co Ltd – the three main suppliers to Mumbai – had all been affected by the outage that extended to hospitals, many of which are treating COVID-19 patients. Hospitals and other institutions in India have over the years banked on emergency diesel power generators as a backup due to frequent outages caused by demand outstripping supply. The situation has improved in the big cities but the countryside still has to live with frequent power cuts.

India announces economic stimulus to boost demand by $10 billion (Reuters) – India on Monday announced steps to stimulate consumer demand, including advance payment of a part of the wages of federal government employees during the festival season and more capital spending as it tries to bolster the pandemic-hit economy. The government will allow its employees to spend tax-exempt travel allowances on goods and services, Nirmala Sitharaman, India’s finance minister told a news briefing. She said the government will also shore up investment by spending extra 250 billion rupees ($3.41 billion)on roads, ports and defence projects, and offering 120 billion rupees in interest-free 50-year loans to state governments for spending on infrastructure before March 31,2021. “All these measures are likely to create an additional demand of 730 billion rupees ($9.96 billion),” Sitharaman said, adding the proposals would stimulate demand in a “fiscally prudent way.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which imposed a tough lockdown to stem the spread of the coronavirus in March, is pushing ahead with a full opening to try to boost the economy ahead of the usually high-spending festival season, which runs from October to March. The latest package would not require any extra borrowing by the federal government, Tarun Bajaj, economic affairs secretary at the Ministry of Finance, told reporters. India’s federal government said last month it would stick to revised borrowing target of 12 trillion rupees ($163.78 billion) in the current fiscal year ending March, against an earlier estimate of 7.8 trillion rupees. India’s total coronavirus cases have crossed 7.12 million, second only to the United States, with deaths reaching 109,150. The Reserve Bank of India left key policy rates unchanged on Friday, while retaining an accommodative monetary stance to support an economy that is projected to contract by almost 10% in the current fiscal year.

Jobs bloodbath in Australia continues as companies restructure to slash costs – Thousands of jobs continue to be shed across Australia as companies continue to restructure their operations to slash costs in a bid to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and maintain profits. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the unemployment rate is currently 6.8 percent, down from a 22-year high of 7.5 percent in July. The ABS monthly jobs survey, however, understates the real levels of joblessness by counting as employed anyone who has worked for just one hour a week. A more reliable indicator of current levels of joblessness is provided by Roy Morgan Research. According to its September survey, 1.83 million people were unemployed or 12.9 percent of the workforce. An additional 1.33 million or 9.4 percent were under-employed – i.e., working but seeking more hours. In total, a massive 3.16 million, 22.3 percent, were unemployed or under-employed. The real rate of unemployment is also obscured by the federal Liberal government’s JobKeeper scheme under which employers originally received $1,500 per fortnight to keep employees on their books, even when they have been stood down. The government scheme was introduced in April, when COVID-19 restrictions were being imposed and out of fear that the looming depression levels on unemployment would provoke social explosions. Unemployment levels are set to leap dramatically as the JobKeeper payment is wound up at the end of March next year, having already been reduced to $1,200. According to Natasha Hawker, director of Employees Matter, the end of JobKeeper will leave workers exposed to a “redundancy bloodbath.” She told the media that for smaller businesses – “for whom cash flow is vital” – JobKeeper “has been like a ventilator but the oxygen is about to be turned off, and some businesses won’t survive without life support.” Those employees now being thrown out of work will also face increasing financial hardship as the federal government moves to end the JobSeeker unemployment benefit that it introduced in the first months of the pandemic, doubling the previous social security payment. The JobSeeker benefit has now been slashed by $300 to $815.70 a fortnight, and will revert to the old poverty-level $282.85 a week payment from January.

Australian citizens stranded by COVID-19 measures denounce Morrison government – While the Australian government has slightly increased the number of stranded citizens allowed to return home, it has done little to assist those trapped overseas by COVID-19 measures. Currently, some 24,000 people have registered their intention of returning, but according to the Board of Airline Representatives of Australia (BARA), the real number is over 100,000. They confront extortionate airline ticket prices, months-long delays and a lack of government support. Last month, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that international arrival restrictions would be gradually lifted from 4,000 a week, introduced in mid-July, to 6,000 per week by October 12. Canberra, however, has refused to provide any substantial aid or support. Ian Giles, a casual fly-in, fly-out mine worker, has been stuck in Thailand after a 12-day holiday in March. He explained that he had eight flight cancellations between March and September and rejected airline claims that the ticket price gouging was solely a result of caps on international arrivals imposed by the Australian government. “The airlines started putting the prices up way before the government put the caps on in July. They started ratcheting up their prices on the day we were told to come home by our government, on March 16. “In the first week of April, flights from Patong to Australia were like $5,000 plus – this was the cheapest option. Some of the prices went from $500 to $800 to $8,000, and even $10,000 and beyond, at least a tenfold increase,” he said. “What’s worse, the Australian government hasn’t provided repatriation flights from Thailand. Even Colombia organised flights to pick up their citizens stranded in Thailand.”Sandi James, a qualified psychologist and schoolteacher, is one of the estimated 30,000 Australians stranded in the UK after travelling there for a job-related conference. She was due to fly into Malaysia in late March to start work at a university. James said she had booked a ticket in April to return to her family in Australia in July on the first available flight, but the booking was cancelled, as was the next one.

UN World Food Program Needs $6.8 Billion to Avoid COVID-19 Famine – The UN World Food Program (WFP) said on Tuesday that will need to raise $6.8 billion over the next six months to avert famine triggered by the coronavirus pandemic crisis. “We’ve got a lot more money to raise to make certain we avert famine,” David Beasley, executive director of the WFP, said at a conference organized by the U.N’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Beasley said 7 million people had died from hunger this year, even as the COVID-19 pandemic claimed a further 1 million lives worldwide. But he warned that the pandemic would make things worse in the long term. “If we don’t sort out COVID, (the) hunger death rate could be 3, 4, 5 times that,” said Beasley.World hunger was on the decline for several decades, but is it now on the rise again since 2016, driven by both conflict and climate change.”If you think about the wealth on Earth today we shouldn’t see one single child (go) hungry or die from starvation,” said Beasley.The organization was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last week for its efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and conflict. German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised the organization and called on world nations to join in a renewed fight against hunger. The UN food agency is the world’s largest humanitarian organization and it is entirely funded by donations. In 2019, the money it raised funded school meals for 17.3 million children globally and delivered 4.2 million tonnes of food to regions or countries. Beasley is now urging donors, including governments and institutions, but also the more than 2,000 billionaires in the world – who hold a combined net worth of $8 trillion – to donate to the WFP. The organization has so far raised $1.6 billion, far below the target needed this year.

Coronavirus Pandemic Could Pose ‘Major Resilience Test’ for Global Financial System, IMF Says – WSJ – Huge government spending and other steps to boost coronavirus-stricken economies have limited immediate risks to global financial stability while fueling a debt buildup that could spell trouble later, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. “The COVID-19 pandemic could be a major resilience test for the global financial system,” the IMF economists wrote in the Global Financial Stability Report. “Triggers such as new virus outbreaks, policy missteps, or other shocks could interact with pre existing vulnerabilities and tip the economy into a more adverse scenario.” Companies that borrowed heavily at low interest rates to cope with the crisis may have trouble paying their debts, the report said, increasing the risk of bankruptcies. The danger is particularly acute among smaller companies that don’t have easy access to capital markets, it said. Under such a scenario, bankruptcies could prompt an increase in borrowing and a tightening of bank lending standards, creating headwinds to a recovery, the IMF said. The impact could be especially severe in Europe, where small and medium-size firms account for more than half of total output and two-thirds of employments, the report said. Thanks to the regulatory overhaul that followed the 2008 financial crisis, banks entered the downturn with strong capital and liquidity buffers, IMF economists said. Even so, they warned, the banking system in some nations may suffer “significant capital shortfalls” due to increases in defaults among businesses and households. The IMF also addressed risks among so-called nonbank financial institutions, like asset managers and insurance companies, which have assumed an increasingly important role in credit markets. “They have managed to cope with the pandemic-induced market turmoil thanks to policy support, but fragilities, such as liquidity mismatches and exposure to credit risks, remain high,” Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, wrote in a blog post. “At some point, fragilities could spread through the entire financial system.” The IMF urged countries to maintain easy policies to ensure a sustainable recovery, while at the same time strengthening the regulatory framework for the nonbank financial sector and containing excessive risk-taking as interest rates remain low.

Pandemic Response Will Drive Up Global Public Debt to a Record, IMF Says – WSJ – Spending by the world’s governments to fight the coronavirus and the global economic downturn will propel public debt to a record level, the International Monetary Fund said, adding that more will be needed to assure a full recovery. Governments have committed $11.7 trillion, or 12% of global output, as of Sept. 11, the IMF said in its semiannual Fiscal Monitor report. That will drive up budget deficits by 9% of gross domestic product on average this year, with cumulative public debt approaching 100% of global GDP. “The fiscal action taken by the authorities around the world is truly unprecedented and decisive, and extremely important in avoiding a financial and economic collapse,” Vitor Gaspar, director of IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, said in an interview. The measures include direct spending, tax cuts, loans and guarantees and direct equity injections. Central banks, in addition to cutting interest rates, have also provided $7.5 trillion in stimulus with purchases of government and corporate securities. Advanced economies and large emerging markets account for the bulk of the response, in part because they can take advantage of historically low interest rates to finance deficits, the fund said. The IMF expects the global debt ratio to stabilize next year around 100% of GDP, thanks to continued low rates and a global economic rebound as the pandemic subsides. Debt levels are expected to rise in the U.S. and China. “This implies that for us, high public debt levels are not the most immediate risk,” Mr. Gaspar said at a press conference Wednesday. “The near-term priority is to avoid premature withdrawal of fiscal support. Support should persist at least into 2021 to sustain the recovery and limit long-term scarring.” The hefty fiscal spending during the pandemic has increased the ratio of public debt to GDP in the U.S. by more than 20 percentage points to slightly above 130%. Still, Mr. Gaspar said, the U.S. has room for further fiscal spending to support the recovery. The world economy is forecast to contract by 4.4% this year, the IMF said Tuesday, not as much as the 5.2% drop it projected in June but still the most severe downturn since the Great Depression. World output will grow 5.2% in 2021, down from an earlier estimate of 5.4%. In Wednesday’s report, IMF economists warned that essential support to provide short-term aid has longer-term implications. For example, wage subsidies help to keep workers attached to employers but may slow the movement of workers from ailing companies to healthier ones.

Former Chilean Health Minster charged with falsifying COVID-19 figures – Charges that Chile’s former health minister, Jaime Manalich, manipulated the data on coronavirus infections and deaths have deepened the profound crisis of political rule that has gripped the country since the end of last year. They further confirm that the ultra-right government of billionaire President Sebastian Pinera criminally mishandled the pandemic, inflicting disproportionate suffering upon the most oppressed layers, including the working class, the elderly and the indigenous population. This criminal negligence is graphically illustrated by a recent report revealing that one quarter of those who have died from COVID-19 did so without ever being hospitalized. A total of 3,491 mainly elderly citizens who, although developing serious conditions due to COVID-19, were never admitted to hospital, and died outside the health system.Investigative news site CIPER published last week a detailed account of affidavits submitted to public prosecutors by Health Ministry employees at the end of September. In damning testimony, Johanna Acevedo, the head of the ministry’s Health Planning Division (known as DIPLAS) and Andrea Albagli from the Department of Epidemiology, substantiated accusations that Manalich consciously and deliberately manipulated figures and lied to the public. They also affirmed that his cabinet advisors – Paula Daza, the present under-secretary of public health, and Itziar Linazasoro, former Health Ministry chief of staff – were aware of the alterations. Acevedo told public prosecutors that, at the request of the ministry, her department’s epidemiological reports had to be “adjusted” to match those reported daily by Manalich who had his own parallel tallying system. “I had to… adjust the data from the epidemiological reports to what (the ministry) announced,” Acevedo told the prosecutors. DIPLAS’s public reports “had to be consistent with what was reported by the authority. I always reported everything to the authority, internally, but the published epidemiological reports had to be consistent with the information that the minister announced in the public account.” Acevedo explained that DIPLAS records are based on Epivigila – the health ministry’s software that records infections reported by doctors and that of the country’s regional ministerial health secretariats – and the databases of the laboratories reporting positive PCR tests. DIPLAS works on the basis of criteria set down by international bodies such the Pan American Health Organization and the World Health Organization, whereas the former minister used an unknown and unrecognized tallying system.

A Q4 GDP Contraction Will Soon Become The Base Case In Europe – In France, earlier this week, the Local reported “the metropole areas of Lille, Lyon, Grenoble and Saint-Etienne have joined Paris and its suburbs and the Aix-Marseille area on maximum alert.” It added “the new designations will take place from Saturday morning and will see the closure of all bars in those areas, although restaurants can remain open under strict new conditions.” In addition, two other areas, namely Toulouse and Montpellier, were described as “worrying” by Health minister Olivier Veran, in his weekly briefing on Thursday evening. The ministry reported more than 20,000 new infections on Friday (highest since methodology changed in May and tests increased significantly) but most importantly, new cases for people aged above 69, a good leading indicator to forecast hospitalizations, kept increasing sharply. In Spain, Bloomberg highlighted that “the Madrid region extended travel restrictions Saturday to four communities that hadn’t been covered by the national government’s state of emergency for the capital the day before. The order forbids inhabitants of those zones to leave except for essential activities such as traveling to work, school or visiting a doctor.” Authories moved quickly ahead of a holiday weekend, with Spaniards celebrating their national day on Monday.In Germany, AP noted Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday held talks with the mayors of Germany’s 11 biggest cities. Merkel said she and the mayors “have agreed on measures to slow the spread of the virus by ensuring that social distancing and hygiene rules are respected and contact tracing can continue – despite the growing number of infections Germany is now experiencing.” Elsewhere, Bloomberg (citing Dutch news agency ANP) underlined “the Netherlands reported 6,504 cases, a daily record and rising above 6,000 for the first time“. In this context, the Dutch government is meeting Sunday to discuss stricter measures to combat the spreading of the virus. Yet, the Daily Mail already flagged that “government warned it would be forced to impose tighter restrictions by the end of the weekend if infections did not start to drop.” In the U.K., ministers are mulling new restrictions in areas of northern England where the coronavirus is spreading fastest. BBC reported that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is likely to announce a three-tier local lockdown system as soon as Monday. As a result, I expect several EU countries to experience a GDP contraction in 4Q especially those who already faced a contraction in the services sector in September, such as France and Spain. The deterioration seen in Markit PMIs is also coherent with high frequency data that I’m looking for in the hospitality sector, which confirmed a downturn since mid-August. Therefore, I think that the Bloomberg consensus for 4Q GDP looks very optimistic for several European countries including France (+1.5%) and Spain (+2.6%) and will probably turn negative before year-end.

Italy to Join France and U.K. With Curbs as Cases Hit Record – Italy is considering new restrictions on public life as fresh curbs on movement took effect in London and Paris in Europe’s escalating efforts to check its coronavirus surge while limiting economic harm.Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is planning to announce the new measures on Sunday, according to a statement from his office. Londoners are now banned from mixing with other households indoors, while people in Paris and eight other French cities are confined to home between 9 p.m. and 6 a.m. for four weeks.The increased restrictions come as new cases hit daily records across much of Europe. Italy reported 10,925 new infections on Saturday, the U.K. had 16,171 and Germany posted 7,695. Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed to her citizens to meet with fewer people indoors or outdoors.”How winter and Christmas work out will be decided in the coming days and weeks through the sum of individual actions,” Merkel said in her weekly podcast, stressing the importance of refraining from unnecessary journeys and celebrations.Italy’s Lombardy region, which includes Milan, has reined in alcohol consumption and gambling, and Conte’s government may order bars and restaurants to close at 10 p.m., ban some sporting activities and change hours for high schools to prevent congestion, according to government officials, who asked not to be identified in line with their policy. After broad lockdowns triggered some of the worst recessions in living memory, European officials are eager to stick to local restrictions targeted mainly at urban virus hot spots this time around. But with Europe heading into the winter, when people will be unable to spend as much time outdoors and transmission rates are likely to rise, getting back to normal appears some way off.

French universities enforce de facto herd immunity policy on COVID-19 – As part of its murderous herd immunity policy, the French government forced universities and schools to reopen with a near full program of in-person instruction in early September. The government’s aggressive university reopening campaign has benefitted from the critical support of the unions and pseudo-left political organizations. In the month since the reopening, COVID-19 cases in France have accelerated rapidly, quadrupling from 4,982 cases per day on September 1 to 20,330 on October 9. As early as September 13, 12 clusters were reported at universities throughout the country, and on October 2, Frederique Vidal, the minister for Higher Education, Research and Innovation, admitted 40 French higher education institutions were closed due to outbreaks. A recent report from the UK showed that half of new infections were from schools and universities, exposing the causal link between reopening and the spread of COVID-19 in the wider population. Young people act as the primary spreaders of disease through the population and, contrary to pseudo-scientific claims promoted by the bourgeois media, are themselves vulnerable to the virus. Official government data shows that since the beginning of the pandemic, at least 40 people under the age of 30 have died from COVID-19 in France. Underlining the risk to college students, in September an otherwise healthy 19-year-old studentin the US developed neurological complications from COVID-19 and tragically died. In response to the rising tide of cases at universities, on October 5 Vidal’s ministry decreed that universities in maximal alert areas must conduct in-person classes that do not exceed 50 percent of their nominal capacity. The only other measures taken by the ministry have been to recommend that universities enforce mask wearing, encourage regular handwashing and a 7-day-quarantine for positive individuals, even though this latter measure runs contrary to the WHO’s 14-day quarantine recommendation. Even if these limited measures were adhered to, they do not protect students or prevent universities acting as vectors for the spread through the wider population. In reality, the reopening of universities has formed an integral part of the ruling class’s herd immunity policy.

UK PM Johnson to impose further COVID-19 restrictions but pubs angry (Reuters) – British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will on Monday impose a tiered system of further restrictions on parts of England as the COVID-19 outbreak accelerates, though anger is rising at the cost of the stringent curtailment of freedoms. Johnson has chaired an emergency response committee, known as a COBRA meeting, and will then address parliament at around 1430 GMT, offering lawmakers a vote later in the week on the measures. He will then hold a press conference. Johnson’s three-tiered local lockdowns will include shutting bars, gyms, casinos and bookmakers in some areas placed into the “very high” alert level, probably across the north of England, British media reported. “Pretty much all areas of the UK are now seeing growths in the infection rate,” England Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam told reporters. “The epidemic, this time, has clearly picked up pace in the north of England earlier than it did in the first wave.” Van-Tam said the freshest data showed infections were rising across the north of England and in some more southerly areas too while the virus was creeping up age bands towards the elderly from those aged 16-29 years. “Nightingale” emergency field hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate have been told to mobilise, NHS England’s Medical Director Steve Powis said. Manchester intensive care consultant Jane Eddleston said 30% of critical care beds were taken up with COVID-19 patients – starting to impact on healthcare for others. But as millions of people across the United Kingdom grapple with a patchwork of local restrictions, the hospitality sector says it is being brought to its knees by the government. A group of English pub and nightclub owners led by Manchester club night and events operator Sacha Lord will instruct lawyers to begin opposing the government if Johnson orders pubs closed. “If he is suggesting that pubs and bars need to shut down in Greater Manchester, we’re launching an immediate judicial review,” Lord, creator and operator of Manchester’s Parklife festival and The Warehouse Project, told Reuters. Lord has the support of The Night Time Industries Association, the British Beer and Pub Association, JW Lees Brewery, Joseph Holts Brewery, New River Pub Company, and a host of other operators in northwest England.

Boris Johnson overruled scientists who told him to introduce a lockdown three weeks ago, while ignoring warnings that his plans won’t stop the coronavirus – Boris Johnson ignored advice to introduce a second national lockdown three weeks ago, according to newly published documents which illustrate an extraordinary spat between ministers and the scientists who advise them.The scientific advisory group for emergencies (SAGE) advised the prime minister to introduce a raft of measures to try and contain the rate of Covid-19 transmissions in a Zoom meeting three weeks ago.Boris Johnson reportedly sided with “hawks” in his Cabinet, including Chancellor Rishi Sunak, and refused to consider the measures because he feared the damage they would do to the economy. The measures suggested included a two-week “circuit breaker” lockdown similar to the one imposed in March, a national ban on household mixing, and the closure of all restaurants, pubs, cafes, gyms, and hairdressers. The papers also reveal that Johnson was warned that plans he did later enact to introduce a curfew on pubs and restaurants would only have a “marginal impact” on the spread of the virus.The prime minister instead on Monday announced a “three-tier” system of local lockdowns, where areas which faced the highest incidence rate of Covid-19 would face the harshest measures.He told parliament on Monday: “The number of cases has quadrupled in the last three weeks, there are now more people in hospital with Covid than when we went into lockdown on March 23 and deaths are already rising.” Currently the city of Liverpool is in the highest category, “very high risk,” due to a soaring infection rate and rapidly filling intensive care units which threaten to overwhelm local NHS trusts.

Bank of England asks banks how ready they are for sub-zero rates (Reuters) – The Bank of England asked banks on Monday how ready they are for zero or negative interest rates, following up its announcement last month that it was considering how to take rates below zero if necessary. Other central banks have pushed rates into negative territory in an attempt to spur banks to lend more, and the BoE said in September it was looking into what such a policy might mean in Britain. “As part of this work, we are requesting specific information about your firm’s current readiness to deal with a zero Bank Rate, a negative Bank Rate, or a tiered system of reserves remuneration – and the steps that you would need to take to prepare for the implementation of these,” Deputy BoE Governor Sam Woods said in a letter to banks. The BoE and lenders had to understand the implications of any such moves “since the MPC may see fit to choose various options based on the situation at the time,” he said, referring to the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. Woods said he wanted to know if there were any technology challenges to implementing zero or negative rates. “We are also seeking to understand whether there may be potential for short-term solutions or workarounds, as well as permanent systems changes,” he said. The BoE set a deadline of Nov. 12 – a week after its next monetary policy announcement – for banks to respond. Most euro zone banks have held off passing negative rates on to the bulk of their retail customers despite borrowing costs being below zero for the majority of this decade. However, UK banks would likely face a sharper hit to profitability if they opted not to shift rates in line with the Bank of England due to their differing business models.

Trade, saving and an economic disaster – Frances Coppola – (9 graphs) The UK is running a trade surplus. No, really, I am not joking. This is from the ONS’s latest trade statistics release: The UK total trade surplus, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, increased Pound Sterling3.8 billion to Pound Sterling7.7 billion in the three months to August 2020, as exports grew by Pound Sterling21.4 billion and imports grew by a lesser Pound Sterling17.5 billionIt’s the first time the UK has run a trade surplus since the late 1990s: And if you were thinking this was because of the lockdown, you would be wrong. The UK has been running a trade surplus since the beginning of 2020: Admittedly, the trade surplus widened under lockdown. But the UK economy reopened to some degree from June to August – and yet the trade surplus continues to widen. This is no doubt music to the ears of balance of payments obsessives. Could the UK at last be pivoting away from a consumption-led growth model to an export-led one? At first sight, it appears so. Exports have increased more than imports. And the strongest growth in goods exports was in manufactured goods, particularly machinery and transport equipment: Hooray! If this continues, the UK will become an export powerhouse to rival Germany! There will be jobs and prosperity for all! Not so fast. The trade balance is a net figure. The gross figures that make it up matter too – and gross imports and exports have both fallen considerably since August 2019: The UK’s trade surplus is not a sign of a booming export economy. Far from it. The only reason for the trade surplus is that imports have fallen even more than exports over the last 12 months.

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