Oil, Gas, And Fracking News Reads 21October, 2018 – Part 2

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 21 October 2018. Go here for Part 1.

This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.

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Saudi Arabia assures OPEC there will be no crude shortage (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia has assured OPEC that it is “committed, capable and willing” to ensure there will be no shortage in the oil market, OPEC’s secretary-general said on Wednesday. Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, the secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, was responding to a question on whether the cartel’s relationship with Saudi Arabia and global production of oil will be impacted by the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi – a prominent critic of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – has been missing for more than two weeks after visiting the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul. Turkish officials say they believe Khashoggi was murdered inside the consulate. The journalist’s disappearance has resulted in global pressure on Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter. U.S. lawmakers have blamed the Saudi leadership and many high profile guests have pulled out of a major Saudi Arabia investment conference in protest. Barkindo cited a speech by Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Khalip al-Falih at a conference in New Delhi on Monday, and said Saudi Arabia is ready to ensure that there is no oil shortage. “As OPEC, we remain focused on our common objectives,” Barkindo said. Saudi Arabia has “a healthy spare capacity to serve as a buffer against any emergency,” he added.

Saudi Arabia Lifts West Coast Oil Export Capacity By 3 Million Bpd – Saudi Arabia has added 3 million bpd of oil export capacity to its West Coast on the Red Sea after the upgrade of Saudi Aramco’s Yanbu South Terminal, the state oil giant said on Wednesday.The Yanbu terminal in the port city on the Red Sea coast of western Saudi Arabia is now integrated with the existing crude oil supply network and adds 3 million barrels per day to Saudi Aramco’s export capacity through the West Coast, the company said.The increased export capacity from the Saudi West Coast comes as the Kingdom looks for routes other than the ones from its East Coast and via the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint, which Iran threatened earlier this year to close should the U.S. drive Iranian oil exports to zero.The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important chokepoint, with an oil flow of 18.5 million bpd in 2016, the EIA estimates. The Strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and is the key route through which Persian Gulf exporters – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain – ship their oil.Most of Saudi Arabia’s seaborne oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but an East-West pipeline in the Kingdom carries crude oil from the eastern oil fields to Yanbu, which lies north of another oil chokepoint around the Arabian Peninsula – Bab el Mandeb. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the three crucial chokepoints around the Arabian Peninsula. Located between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea, Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.Aramco also plans to launch the overhauled Muajjiz oil terminal on the Red Sea this year, which would increase the total Saudi loading and export capacity to 15 million bpd. While Saudi Arabia is raising its oil export capacities, it has recently started to vow that it will boost its oil production as well. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said earlier this week that the Saudis are currently pumping 10.7 million bpd – very close to the all-time high of 10.72 million bpd – and would further increase that production in November.

Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone oil fields seen offline for a while on talks setback – Talks between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait over two shared oil fields have broken down after months of promise, shutting in some 500,000 b/d of anticipated oil production for the foreseeable future, sources close to the projects told S&P Global Platts. Workers involved in the Neutral Zone fields’ restart are no longer optimistic that any resolution will occur, the sources said, as a recent meeting between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Kuwaiti Emir Sabah al-Ahmed failed to resolve issues of sovereignty over the long-contested area. “Dead as a doornail,” a source said, of prospects for the fields’ return, adding that the only hope may be through international arbitration. “It will not be easily fixed,” another source said of the dispute. The stand-off looks set to cut off a source of crude that many market watchers were counting on to offset a looming supply squeeze as US sanctions hit Iran early next month. The offshore Khafji field, owned by Saudi Arabia’s Aramco Gulf Operations Co. and Kuwait Gulf Oil Co, was shut down in October 2014 by Aramco, who cited new government emissions standards for gas flaring. The onshore Wafra field is operated by KGOC and Saudi Arabian Chevron. It was shuttered in May 2015, with Chevron saying it had encountered difficulties in securing work and equipment permits. Crude output in the two fields is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and the two sides have been negotiating over their restart since early summer. As recently as September 23, Kuwaiti oil minister Bakheet al-Rashidi told reporters at an OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting in Algiers that Neutral Zone production could resume as soon as January, eventually adding up to 400,000 b/d in supplies at full ramp-up. Saudi counterpart Khalid al-Falih said at the same meeting that the dispute over the fields, which he said had a combined capacity of 500,000 b/d, could be resolved “in the very near future.” But a September 30 meeting between the Saudi crown prince, known as MBS, and Kuwait’s Sheik Sabah, did not go well, sources said, with the Kuwaiti side insisting that Chevron, the only international oil company with a concession in the Neutral Zone, no longer operate the Wafra field.

Leaked Document: OPEC+ Struggling To Lift Oil Production – OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC allies are struggling to fully deliver on the oil production increase of 1 million bpd promised in June, Reuters reported on Friday, quoting an internal OPEC document that it has seen.OPEC and allies agreed in June to relax compliance rates with the cuts to 100 percent from the previous over-compliance. The respective leaders of the OPEC and non-OPEC nations part of the deal – Saudi Arabia and Russia – have been interpreting the eased compliance as adding a total of 1 million bpd to the market.The document that Reuters has seen, however, showed that the significant production increases in Saudi Arabia and Russia were offset by declines in Iran, Venezuela and Angola within OPEC, and by production drops in Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia from non-OPEC. Increasing production “is a work in progress,” OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said this week. At an event in India he also reiterated OPEC’s position that “our current view is that the market is at the moment adequately supplied and well-balanced, though in a fragile state.”According to the internal OPEC document prepared for a technical panel meeting scheduled for Friday, OPEC – excluding Nigeria, Libya, and Congo – increased its combined production by 428,000 bpd in September compared to May. Saudi Arabia put the most extra barrels on the market and boosted its production by 524,000 bpd in September compared to May. Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab (UAE) also increased their production, according to the document seen by Reuters. However, Iran’s production slumped by 376,000 bpd in September from May, Venezuela’s output plunged by 189,000 bpd, and Angola saw its production drop by 17,000 bpd between May and September.

Is Saudi Arabia About To Enter The Arctic Gas Game? – Now that global oil markets have gotten used to Saudi-Russian oil production cooperation that first hit the scene in early 2017 in an effort to reign in global price concerns, it appears that the two fledgling allies are also going to cooperate in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector. And this time too, it looks as if the alliance could take aim at U.S. energy ambitions. The kingdom’s media savvy energy minister Khalid Al-Falih said at the India Energy Forum in Delhi on Monday that Saudi state-owned Saudi Aramco is open to the idea of marketing some of the LNG from the proposed Russian Arctic LNG 2. “Aramco has the mandate to go global and not only invest in downstream but also invest in gas and LNG. We have looked at projects in Africa and the Mediterranean, and of course the Arctic with some Russian companies, Novatek. The idea is that Aramco will trade that [LNG] globally and bring some of that to India and other markets,” Al-Falih said. “We have looked at projects in Africa and the Mediterranean, and of course the Arctic with some Russian companies, Novatek,” he added. Arctic LNG 2 will be a mammoth facility and increase Russia’s gas ambitions for not only pipeline gas to Europe but to key LNG markets in Asia that account for over 70 percent of global LNG demand, with that demand growth projected to increase amid China’s ramped up natural gas usage. The project envisages the construction of three LNG trains at 6.6 million tons per annum (mtpa) each, or 535,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. It is seen starting up sometime between 2022 or 2023. As far back as the beginning of the year, Saudi Arabia and Russia indicated that they could become LNG partners when Aramco and Novatek signed a MoU over possible cooperation in Arctic LNG 2. Aramco is “seriously” studying investing in the planned Arctic LNG plant, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters in Riyadh on February 14 at a joint briefing with his Russian counterpart. Saudi King Salman is keen to strengthen energy ties between the two nations following their oil-cuts collaboration that helped drive crude’s recovery, according to Al-Falih.

Near Term Future of Saudi Oil Sector Examined Verisk Maplecroft’s near term view of Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas industry is “cautiously optimistic,” according to Torbjorn Soltvedt, Verisk’s principal analyst for the Middle East and North Africa. “This owes a lot to the current oil price environment and more to Riyadh securing a highly favorable OPEC agreement in June,” Soltvedt told Rigzone. “The agreement will prove important domestically because it has given Saudi Arabia a great deal of flexibility to adjust output based on oil price movements and developments in Iran and Venezuela. We have already seen this in action; an initial ramp-up in production in June, followed by a cut in July,” Soltvedt added. The Verisk representative said the scaling back of “some of the more disruptive parts of Vision 2030″ is also “welcome news” for Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas industry but warned that the broader political environment in Saudi Arabia “still demands caution.” “The recent recovery in oil prices has removed much of the immediate pressure on the ruling Al Saud dynasty,” Soltvedt said. “But Saudi Arabia is still facing perhaps the most challenging period in its 85-year history amid growing tensions with Iran, greater socioeconomic pressure and a shift away from the traditional rule-by-consensus approach within the Al Saud family,” he added.

Oil prices ease as funds continue profit-taking: Kemp (Reuters) – Hedge fund managers have continued to take profits on their bullish positions in crude oil as the late summer rally has faded and fears about oil consumption and the state of the economy have replaced concerns over sanctions on Iran. Fund managers cut their combined net long position in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts by 36 million barrels in the week to Oct. 9 after trimming it by 19 million barrels the week before. Liquidation was concentrated in Brent (-6 million barrels) and WTI (-37 million), while fund managers left positions unchanged in U.S. heating oil and added them in U.S. gasoline (+2 million) and European gasoil (+6 million). Net positions in Brent and WTI have been cut by a total of 71 million barrels over the last two weeks after being raised by 177 million during the five previous weeks (https://tmsnrt.rs/2OtbNcn ). The earlier bullishness was driven mostly by concerns about a possible shortage of crude oil once U.S. sanctions on Iran go into effect from early November. But in recent weeks Saudi Arabia, Russia and some other oil producers have pledged to boost their oil output to make up for any shortfall and stop prices spiralling higher. More importantly, and possibly in response to the surge in oil prices, the U.S. government has indicated it may show some flexibility to allow refiners to continue purchasing some Iranian oil. Portfolio managers remain relatively bullish on Brent, with net length of 476 million barrels, reflecting lingering concerns about the impact of sanctions on the availability of seaborne crude as well as the strength in global consumption.

Al Arabiya op-ed warns of oil spike and ‘economic disaster’ if US sanctions Saudi Arabia -Oil prices could surge to all-time highs if the U.S. imposes economic sanctions against Saudi Arabia, according to an opinion piece written by the general manager of Saudi Arabia-based Al Arabiya television.The warning from Al Arabiya’s Turki Aldakhil comes amid heightened tensions between Saudi Arabia and the West, after journalist Jamal Khashoggi – a U.S. resident and prominent critic of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – disappeared after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2.Turkish authorities claim Khashoggi was murdered and his body removed. Saudi Arabia has fiercely denied that.”If U.S. sanctions are imposed on Saudi Arabia, we will be facing an economic disaster that would rock the entire world,” Aldakhil wrote on Sunday.”It would lead to Saudi Arabia’s failure to commit to producing 7.5 million barrels. If the price of oil reaching $80 angered President Trump, no one should rule out the price jumping to $100, or $200, or even double that figure.”International benchmark Brent crude traded at around $81.43 Monday morning, up around 1.2 percent, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $72.12, slightly more than 1 percent higher.Energy watchers are closely monitoring Brent, which has pulled back from recent multiyear highs but remains firmly established above $80 a barrel.So far this year, the price of oil has surged more than 25 percent, prompting some investors to bet that areturn to triple-digits could be just around the corner. Meanwhile, the U.S. is banking on Saudi Arabia to curtail soaring energy prices and help offset lost Iranian oil supply. But, in theory, an escalation of tensions in the Middle East could send prices sharply higher.

Oil Jumps After Saudi Official Floats Trial Balloon Op-Ed Envisioning Oil Weapon Devastation — WTI Crude prices are up around 2% in the early Sunday trading after Saudi Arabia appears to be now attempting to go on the offensive and is lashing out as it does damage control in the aftermath of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s alleged murder inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul nearly two weeks ago. What likely sparked the risk premium was the fact that Turki Al Dakhil, who heads the Saudi state-owned Arabiya news network, wrote in an article that U.S. sanctions against Saudi Arabia could wreak havoc on the global economy by taking oil prices to $200 a barrel and more. Faisal bin Farhan, a senior adviser to the Saudi embassy in Washington, said on Twitter that these comments didn’t represent the Saudi leadership. “The most powerful weapon Saudi has is oil and its investments,” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. “ I doubt Saudi will decrease the production of oil to the world economy because it will hurt itself and I doubt that Saudi will withdraw its investments.” And the reaction to the threat – though modest for now – will not please President Trump

The case of the missing Saudi journalist is creating major worries around the oil -As Saudi Arabia pushes back against international pressure that it played a role in the disappearance of a prominent journalist, analysts are warning there could be fallout for global oil markets. Relations between the kingdom and the some parts of the international community have deteriorated rapidly after Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist who resided in the U.S., disappeared early this month after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Turkey reportedly believes the Washington Post journalist and critic of the Saudi administration was deliberately killed inside the building and his body removed. Riyadh has dismissed the claims. The stock market in Saudi Arabia plunged on Sunday, and analysts believe oil could be the next to be affected. Robert Carnell, chief economist head of research at ING, said the incident “opens a new source of risk.” “Any Saudi retaliation will presumably mainly come through reduced oil supply and higher prices. That won’t help market sentiment,” he wrote in a note on Monday. Oil prices rose on Monday afternoon during Asian trade, with Brent crude jumping 1.29 percent to $81.47 per barrel, and U.S. crude futures rising 1.14 percent to $72.15 a barrel. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday there would be “severe punishment” for Saudi Arabia if it turned out that Khashoggi was killed in the consulate. But the Middle Eastern country said on Sunday it would retaliate to possible economic sanctions taken by other states over the case, the state news agency SPA reported, quoting an official source.

Why the market is suddenly concerned Saudi Arabia will weaponize oil in Khashoggi dispute — The oil market is on edge after Saudi Arabia issued a combative statement that some are interpreting as a veiled threat to wield crude as a weapon in the ongoing scandal over missing dissident Jamal Khashoggi. The question is whether Saudi Arabia – the world’s largest oil exporter, a close ally of President Donald Trump and the de facto leader of OPEC – would take that extraordinary step, one it has not taken since the Arab oil embargo of 1973-1974. To be sure, the current leadership in Riyadh is facing unprecedented scrutiny over allegations that the kingdom ordered the abduction of Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist. Turkey says it believes that Saudi agents detained and killed Khashoggi at the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul. Saudi Arabia denies those claims.The scandal has caused businesses, influential individuals and media companies to drop out of this month’s Future Investment Initiative, a conference in Riyadh meant to attract investment in the kingdom. The United States and European nations have threatened punishment if Saudi Arabia is found to be behind Khashoggi’s alleged murder.That has caused Saudi Arabia to react forcefully. Here’s why Riyadh’s response is roiling the oil market.In interview excerpts released Saturday, Trump told the CBS program “60 Minutes” that the kingdom would face “severe punishment” if the allegations against it turn out to be true. This came after U.S. lawmakers raised the prospect of applying sanctions against Saudi individuals meant to punish human rights abuses.The following morning, the Saudi Press Agency issued a statement saying Riyadh rejects all threats of economic sanctions, political pressure and false accusations, adding that it will respond to any action with “greater action.” What caught the eye of many oil market watchers was a reminder in the statement that “the Kingdom’s economy has an influential and vital role in the global economy.” Some took that as a veiled threat that Saudi Arabia could withhold supply and let oil prices rise.

Oil weapon has proved a double-edged sword- Kemp – (Reuters) – The oil shocks of 1973/74 and 1979/80 are now mainly remembered for the disruption and hardship they caused in the major oil-consuming countries. But they marked a lasting inflection point in the development of the oil market and almost all the changes were adverse to OPEC in the long run. Following the oil shocks, global oil consumption grew more slowly while non-OPEC production rose more rapidly. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries initially benefited from a gusher of windfall revenues, but in the long term the oil shocks were disastrous. OPEC’s market share fell and its members were left with excess production capacity that remained a problem until the 2000s. OPEC’s responsibility for the shocks remains debatable: the market was on an unsustainable trajectory before 1973 as low prices boosted consumption without encouraging a similar increase in non-OPEC output. But the events of the 1970s and 1980s demonstrate clearly why oil cannot be employed as a weapon without doing long-lasting damage to the interests of the producer countries. OPEC members have never again resorted to the oil weapon – not out of goodwill to consumers but because it did not work and did long-term harm to their own economies. More generally, the oil shocks demonstrate why very high prices are damaging to the interests of OPEC countries, a lesson that was painfully re-learned when prices collapsed in 2014. OPEC members were the biggest losers from the oil shocks of the 1970s as surging prices accelerated the development of alternative sources of supply (https://tmsnrt.rs/2J1jPmI). In real terms, oil prices quintupled from $11 per barrel in 1970 to $58 in 1974 and then almost doubled again to $110 in 1980 (“Statistical review of world energy”, BP, 2018). In nominal terms, OPEC members’ export revenues jumped from $14 billion in 1970 to $116 billion in 1974 and $265 billion in 1980 (“Annual statistical bulletin”, OPEC, 2018). But revenues fell to just $72 billion in 1985 and did not pass their previous peak until 2004, even in nominal terms. OPEC’s own share of production, which had been increasing and peaked at 52 percent in 1973, fell to just 28 percent by 1985.

Oil prices rise amid Saudi tensions, but demand outlook drags — Oil prices rose on Monday as tension over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked supply worries, balancing concerns over the long-term demand outlook. Crude markets were also supported in the wake of data that showed South Korea did not import any oil from Iran in September for the first time in six years, before U.S. sanctions against the Middle Eastern country take effect in November. Brent crude were up 25 cents at $80.68 a barrel by 2:28 p.m. ET. U.S. crude futures ended Monday’s session up 44 cents to $71.78 a barrel. Last week, both contracts fell by more than 4 percent as U.S. stock markets tumbled. Rising geopolitical tension between the U.S., the world’s top oil consumer, and Saudi Arabia, one of the biggest oil producers supported prices on Monday. Riyadh has been under pressure since journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of the kingdom and a U.S. resident, disappeared on Oct. 2 after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened “severe punishment” if it is found that Khashoggi was killed in the consulate.Saudi Arabia said it would retaliate to any action against it over the Khashoggi case, state news agency SPA reported on Sunday, quoting an official source. This comes at a critical time for global oil markets, which are bracing for U.S. sanctions against Iran due to come into force Nov. 4. The United States is still aiming to cut Iran’s oil sales to zero, Washington’s special envoy for Iran said on Monday.

Oil Ends Up In Volatile Trade Amid Saudi Tensions, Global Macro Fear – – Oil prices settled higher on Monday in volatile trade after the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist caused a spike in geopolitical tensions and sent crude markets soaring before global macro uncertainties cut gains. Crude oil WTI futures settled up 44 cents at $71.78 per barrel. U.K. Brent oil futures, its global peer, were up 18 cents at $80.61 by 3:26 PM ET (19:26 GMT). Jamal Khashoggi, a columnist for the Washington Post and a Saudi royal insider-turned-critic entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, on Oct. 2 and has not been seen since. Tensions in the Middle East typically drive crude prices up. The Khashoggi matter has reignited diplomatic wrangling between Saudi Arabia and Turkey that followed Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s labeling of Ankara in March as part of a “triangle of evil” alongside Iran and Islamic extremists. In the latest spat, Turkish sources say they have recordings to prove Khashoggi was murdered and dismembered, but haven’t made those public. Saudi authorities say Khashoggi left the consulate after his visit, but haven’t provided evidence either. The fallout from the Khashoggi matter has widened to affect a business conference in Riyadh later this month, dubbed “Davos in the desert” where some notable attendees, including World Bank head Jim Kim, have pulled out. President Donald Trump has weighed in, saying Saudi King Salman had denied knowledge about Khashoggi’s whereabouts in a phone call but that the White House has ordered Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to “immediately get on a plane” to Saudi Arabia. After oil’s initial spike over the crisis, traders turned their attention to global economic uncertainties, and crude prices gave back much of their early gains. Since last week, a wobbly Wall Street, soaring U.S. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve plans for higher interest rates through 2020 have led to risk aversion.

Oil prices rise on signs of falling Iranian oil exports — Oil prices fell on Tuesday following evidence of higher U.S. oil production and increasing U.S. crude inventories, but reports of a fall in Iranian oil exports helped to limit losses. Brent crude was down 33 cents a barrel at $80.45 by 10:39 a.m. ET (1439 GMT). U.S. light crude was 29 cents lower at $71.49. “Shale oil production continues unabated in the United States,” said Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank. “Rising U.S. oil production is one key reason why the global oil market is likely to be amply supplied next year.”Oil production from seven major U.S. shale basins is expected to rise by 98,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November to a record of 7.71 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.The largest change is forecast in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, where output is expected to climb by 53,000 bpd to a new peak of 3.55 million bpd.U.S. oil production has increased steadily over the last five years, reaching a record high of 11.2 million bpd in the week to Oct. 5. But infrastructure has not kept pace with rising output, filling domestic tanks.”Once pipelines and oil terminals are built connecting the Permian to the U.S. Gulf Coast, then there will be a big step up in U.S. crude oil exports,” Harry Tchilinguirian, oil strategist at French bank BNP Paribas told Reuters Global Oil Forum. U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to have risen last week for the fourth straight week, by about 1.1 million barrels, according to a Reuters poll ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Oil Prices Under Pressure As US Shale Supply Soars – Ongoing production gains in the U.S. are putting some downward pressure on oil prices. The EIA said that it expects large gains from the shale patch next month (more below). Saudi Arabia shocked the oil world by seeming to threaten to engineer a price spike if the U.S. took action against Riyadh over the apparent murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. However, President Trump does not appear interested in taking action over the incident, taking Saudi assurances at face value. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo traveled to Riyadh to meet with the Saudi king, and all signs suggest that both sides are eager to put the issue behind them. Iran’s oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said that the U.S. won’t bring global oil prices down by “bullying” other nations. “The oil market is suffering from short supply and this cannot be resolved by words. Trump thinks he can bring the oil prices down by bullying,” Zanganeh said. He added that the rise of oil prices was a “self-inflicted pain” caused by U.S. sanctions and that the U.S. “has done most of the things it could do, and there is not much left to do against Iran.” In the first two weeks of October, Iran’s oil exports averaged 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), down sharply from the 1.6 mb/d it averaged in October, and down from the recent peak of 2.5 mb/d in April. Sanctions on Iran take effect on November 4, and most analysts see exports falling further over the next few weeks. Bloomberg reported on the signs that the Permian basin is overheating, including high costs for frac sand, six-figure salaries for truck drivers, and clogged roads from truck traffic make West Texas one of the deadliest places to drive in the country. Output is still growing, but pipeline bottlenecks have cut the monthly growth rate down by three-quarters. Schlumberger has warned producers that drilling wells too closely together has led to lower productivity, raising the prospect that drilling efficiencies are bumping up against their limits. The latest Drilling Productivity Report from the EIA shows strong gains expected for next month. The EIA predicts the U.S. will add 98,000 bpd in November compared to a month earlier. Unsurprisingly, the Permian leads the way with 53,000 bpd in growth, followed by the Eagle Ford (+15,000 bpd), the Bakken (+13,000 bpd) and smaller contributions from the Anadarko, Appalachia and Niobrara.

Oil up; Iran, Saudi supply worries offset U.S. supply growth (Reuters) – Oil prices edged up in cautious trade on Tuesday as expectations of higher U.S. shale output and inventories vied with worries that crude supply from the Middle East could be disrupted by looming U.S. sanctions on Iran and growing tensions with top exporter Saudi Arabia. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham accused Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of ordering the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and said the prince was jeopardizing relations with the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump said the Saudi crown prince intends to expand an investigation into the disappearance of Khashoggi and that the prince did not know what happened in the Turkish consulate where Khashoggi apparently disappeared. “The focus within the oil trade during the next couple of weeks is likely to be on Iran and Saudi Arabia,” “We don’t expect the Kingdom to be as accommodative to the White House requests for stronger production,” he said, adding that the Saudis could cut as much as 500,000 barrels per day of production “as a warning shot should the U.S. opt to impose any type of sanction in response to the Khashoggi developments.” Trump has urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise output to help cover a shortfall due to new U.S. sanctions on Iran. The market has been supported by reports that Iranian crude exports may be falling faster than expected ahead the Nov. 4 deadline on sanctions. Brent crude rose 63 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $81.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended the session up 14 cents at $71.92 a barrel. Last week, oil prices slumped as global stock markets fell, but a recovery in financial markets, boosted by earnings growth helped provide support to oil prices on Tuesday, traders said.

WTI Jumps Above $72 After Surprise Crude Draw – Against expectations of a 2.5mm barrel build, API reported Crude stocks drewdown in the latest week by 2.13mm barrels, sparking a kneejerk gain in WTI crude back above $72…API

• Crude -2.13mm (+2.5mm exp)
• Cushing +1.5mm
• Gasoline -3.4mm
• Distillates -246k

After 3 weeks of crude builds, API reported a draw in the latest week… And WTI spiked back above $72 on the headline crude draw…

Oil Rises After Industry Reports Surprise US Crude Stock Draw – — Oil popped higher after an industry report showed an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories. Futures rose from the settlement in New York on Tuesday after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report U.S. crude inventories dipped 2.13 million barrels last week. That would be the first decline in four weeks if Energy Information Administration data confirms it on Wednesday. Hurricane Michael shut in production in the Gulf of Mexico during the reporting period, which may contribute to the inventory decline. “Hurricane Michael is the deciding factor on why inventories didn’t continue to climb,” said Thomas Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group Ltd. in Wellington, Florida. The loss of production “doesn’t all come back at once. It gradually comes back on.” Oil markets were roiled in recent days as the mystery over the disappearance of prominent Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi deepened, drawing tit-for-tat threats of punitive action by the U.S. and the Saudi regime. On Monday, media reports emerged that said the kingdom was considering saying Khashoggi perished in a botched interrogation inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery traded at $72.21 a barrel at 4:43 p.m. in New York after ending the session at $71.92 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Total volume traded Tuesday was about 11 percent below the 100-day average. Brent for December settlement rose 63 cents to close at $81.41 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $9.65 premium to WTI for the same month. The API was also said to report that inventories at the key pipeline hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 1.53 million barrels last week. Gasoline and distillate supplies both fell, according to the data. A Cushing increase would be the fourth consecutive one if EIA data confirms it.

Oil prices steady as industry data shows unexpected drop in inventories – Oil pries held gains after an industry report showed an unexpected drop in American crude stockpiles, while traders continued to assess simmering tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia over a missing journalist. Futures in New York rose as much as 0.7 percent, advancing for a fourth day. The American Petroleum Institute was said to report inventories fell 2.13 million barrels last week, in contrast to forecasts for a gain in a Bloomberg survey before government data Wednesday. Meanwhile, Donald Trump said in a tweet that the Saudi crown prince “totally denied any knowledge” of what happened to dissident Jamal Khashoggi, as the U.S. president faces rising pressure to act against the regime. Crude has increased about 20 percent this year as concerns linger that demand may outstrip supply with American sanctions on Iran set to be implemented early next month. While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies say they remain committed to boosting production, questions remain over their spare capacity. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to hound sentiment, with the trade war ongoing between the U.S. and China. “Prices are rising today as the unexpected decline in U.S. inventory data comes at a time when tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are boiling,” according to Stephen Innes, Singapore-based head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp. “I’m looking for more disruptions in the Middle East with the tensions. I’m still bullish until data proves me wrong on the supply front” after the start of sanctions on Iranian oil. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery traded 11 cents higher at $72.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:04 a.m. in Singapore. The contract is on course to rise for a fourth day, the longest winning streak in almost two months. Total volume traded was about 25 percent below the 100-day average. Brent for December settlement rose as much as 38 cents to $81.79 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and traded at $81.51. The global benchmark crude was at a $9.61 premium to WTI for the same month. In the U.S., a drop in crude inventories as signaled by the API data would be the first decline in four weeks. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey forecast government data to show a 2.5-million-barrel gain. Meanwhile, stockpiles in the nation’s storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, climbed by 1.5 million barrels, according to the API, which would be the fourth consecutive increase if confirmed by the Energy Information Administration’s data Wednesday

Iran says Trump cannot bring oil prices down by ‘bullying’ (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump cannot bring oil prices down by “bullying” other nations, Iran’s oil minister said on Tuesday, adding that the market was suffering from short supply. U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports are due to kick in on Nov. 4. The U.S. administration has been pushing its allies to cut Iranian oil imports and encouraging Saudi Arabia, other OPEC states and Russia to pump more oil to meet any shortfall. “The oil market is suffering from short supply and this cannot be resolved by words. Trump thinks he can bring the oil prices down by bullying,” Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said, according to the semi-official news agency ILNA. Benchmark Brent crude has been trading above $80 a barrel LCOc1. Zanganeh said the rise of oil prices was a “self-inflicted pain” caused by U.S. sanctions against Iranian energy exports, and could be resolved by lifting the measures. “Everyone is worried and Trump has failed to reassure them. That’s why the market is in turmoil,” he said. Zanganeh also said the United States “has done most of the things it could do, and there is not much left to do against Iran,” according to comments reported by Iran’s ISNA agency. Washington said this month it would consider waivers for Iranian oil buyers such as India, although it said they would eventually have to halt imports from Iran, the third biggest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Why the market should expect Saudi Arabia to send oil prices lower over journalist’s disappearance –Saudi Arabia could soon take action to push oil prices lower, one analyst told CNBC Tuesday, as part of a “settlement” plan to alleviate diplomatic tensions with the U.S.It comes at a time of international outcry after journalist Jamal Khashoggi – a U.S. resident and prominent critic of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – disappeared after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2.Turkish authorities claim Khashoggi was murdered and his body removed. Saudi Arabia vehemently denies that.”My guess is the quid quo pro is likely going to be that the Saudi’s end up pumping as aggressively as they can. And so, all things being equal, I think this is probably negative for the oil price,” Michael Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday.Harris said rising diplomatic tensions between Saudi Arabia and the West could ultimately become “hugely problematic” if it triggered oil prices to spiral out of control. That’s because investors would then need to worry about Riyadh’s leverage in the energy market.”But I think the exact opposite is going to be happening. The Saudi guilt is going to play into the oil price,” he said. International benchmark Brent crude traded at around $80.20 Tuesday morning, down around 0.7 percent, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $77.23, almost 0.8 percent lower.U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo landed in Saudi Arabia to meet King Salman Tuesday morning, amid mounting pressure on the kingdom to explain the fate of Khashoggi.President Donald Trump has threatened “severe punishment” if it is found Khashoggi was killed in the Turkish consulate, prompting Saudi Arabia’s state news agency to respond by saying it would retaliate against any economic sanctions. Escalating diplomatic tensions between the strategic allies has prompted speculation among oil traders that Riyadh could be tempted to weaponize its oil dominance.

WTI Plunges Below $70 To 1-Month Lows After Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Build – WTI extended losses this morning after a brief bounce on API’s unexpected crude draw, pushing down to one-month lows below a $70 handle after DOE reported an unexpectedly large crude build. DOE:

• Crude +6.49mm (+2.5mm exp)
• Cushing +1.78mm
• Gasoline -2.016mm (+600k exp)
• Distillates -827k

This is the 4th weekly build for crude (and Cushing stocks) in a row… Bloomberg Intelligence Energy Analyst Fernando Valle notes that gasoline margins will remain challenged as demand wanes after summer driving season. WTI traded with a $70 handle ahead of the DOE data – at the low end of the last week’s range – and then legged down on DOE’s big crude build…losing the $70 handleHowever, not everyone agrees with the market’s direction: “Our basic premise is that prices will move higher,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity-markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. “As Iran’s supply losses are fully realized and Venezuela suffers continuous decline, global spare production capacity will ebb and — against a backdrop of average inventories — the market will become more sensitive to adverse supply shocks.” Meanwhile, WTI Midland’s discount to WTI at Cushing narrowed to $4.50/bbl on Tuesday, smallest since June 21…

Oil prices sink as US crude stockpiles rise by 6.5 million barrels – Oil prices extended losses on Wednesday after U.S. inventory data showed a much larger than expected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles. U.S. commercial crude stockpiles rose by 6.5 million barrels in the week to Oct. 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. A Reuters survey of eight analysts estimated crude stocks rose by about 2.2 million barrels last week. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1.8 million barrels, EIA said.Brent crude was down $1.77, or 2.2 percent, at $79.64 a barrel by 10:41 a.m. ET (1441 GMT), after gaining $1.15 in the previous three sessions. The global benchmark, which hit a two-week low last week as equity markets dropped, is trading around $6 below a four-year high of $86.74 reached on Oct. 3.U.S. light crude oil fell $1.99, or 2.8 percent, at $69.93.Gasoline stocks fell by 2 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.1 million-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 827,000 barrels, versus expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.Also underpinning sentiment is the scandal over the disappearance of prominent Saudi critic and journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who disappeared two weeks ago after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.U.S. President Donald Trump gave Saudi Arabia the benefit of the doubt in the case even as U.S. lawmakers pointed the finger at the Saudi leadership and Western pressure mounted on Riyadh to provide answers. Saudi Arabia has said it will conduct an investigation into the disappearance, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said before departing the kingdom for Turkey.

Large Crude Build Forces Oil Prices Lower – A day after the oversensitive oil market yet again demonstrated surprise at API’s estimate of a 2.13-million-barrel crude oil inventory draw, the Energy Information Administration’s official figures refuted that: the authority reported an increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories of 6.5 million barrels for the week ending October 12. EIA’s report comes amid relatively stable prices as the tension between Saudi Arabia and the Untied States prompted by the suspicious disappearance of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was countered by oil demand forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency.Both the oil producers’ cartel and the international authority this week had bad news for oil bulls, forecasting demand growth will slow down both this year and in 2019. Although in his comment on the news Bloomberg’s Julian Lee said that this does not necessarily mean oil prices will follow down, it was reason enough for Brent and WTI to stop rising so fast. The EIA said refineries processed 16.3 million bpd of crude last week, compared with 16.2 million bpd a week earlier. They churned out 10.4 million bpd of gasoline, versus 9.7 million bpd a week earlier, and 4.8 million bpd of distillate, down from 5 million bpd in the prior week. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at US$81.55 a barrel, with WTI at US$72.12, both up from yesterday’s close slightly. Prospects remain mixed. Just yesterday Goldman Sachs warned of an oil surplus on the global market, to emerge in 2019 because of higher utilization of spare capacity. This, the investment bank’s commodity analysts said, would offset the loss of Iranian crude after the November sanctions enter into effect and swing the market into an excess of supply. What’s more, Saudi Arabia’s warning it will retaliate if the United States decides to punish it for Khashoggi’s disappearance, seems to have lost whatever substance it had when it was made on Sunday. As Reuters’ John Kemp noted, “self-interest makes it improbable the government will retaliate by reducing oil sales or trying to drive up prices,” which has reduced the upward potential for oil for the time being.

OPEC daily basket price stood at US$79.50 barrel Wednesday – The price of OPEC basket of fifteen crudes stood at US$79.50 a barrel on Wednesday, 17th October, 2018, compared with $79.02 the previous day, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations. The fourteen crudes, from separate OPEC member countries, includes a mix of blends and light and heavy crudes, including the UAE’s Murban.

Don’t mention the oil price – U.S. legal threat prompts change at OPEC (Reuters) – OPEC has urged its members not to mention oil prices when discussing policy in a break from the past, as the oil producing group seeks to avoid the risk of U.S. legal action for manipulating the market, sources close to OPEC said. Proposed U.S. legislation known as “NOPEC”, which could open the group up to anti-trust lawsuits, has long lain dormant, with previous American presidents signaling that they would veto any move to make it law. But U.S. President Donald Trump has been a vocal critic of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, blaming it for high oil prices and urging it to increase output to relieve pressure on a market hovering around four-year highs. That has made OPEC and its unofficial leader, Saudi Arabia, nervous about what it might mean for NOPEC, or No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act. The decision to refrain from discussing a preferred oil price level – one way the group can guide market expectations – underlines how Trump’s aggressive stance on the oil market is unsettling OPEC and testing ties between allies Riyadh and Washington. In July, senior OPEC officials attended a workshop in Vienna with international law firm White & Case to discuss the NOPEC bill, and the lawyers advised avoiding public discussion of oil prices and rather talk about the stability of the oil market, two sources familiar with the matter said. OPEC officials were also advised to explore diplomatic lobbying channels to try and prevent the NOPEC bill from becoming law, one of the sources said. On Aug. 1, the OPEC secretariat sent a letter to the ministers making a similar recommendation. “We solemnly believe that market stability, and not prices, is the common objective of our actions,” UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazroui, who holds the rotating OPEC presidency this year, wrote in the letter, seen by Reuters. “I would like to call upon OPEC Member Countries, as well as our participating Non-OPEC colleagues, to refrain from any reference to prices in their commentary about our collective efforts or oil market condition,” he added.

OPEC has ‘no price objective’ in its decisions: Barkindo – CNBC interview – Mohammad Barkindo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries says there is a “perception” of “increasing tightness” in the oil market due largely to factors such as geopolitics.

Putin Hints At New Russia-Saudi Axis- No Reason To Spoil Saudi Ties Over Khashoggi Killing – Russian President Vladimir Putin finally weighed in on the disappearance (and purportedly brutal slaying) of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi during a speech in Sochi on Thursday. His verdict? Russia doesn’t have enough information about the incident to justify spoiling their relationship with Saudi Arabia (and, by extension, the rest of OPEC, which has mostly backed Saudi Arabia during the burgeoning diplomatic crisis), according to Reuters. Putin’s take is hardly surprising: Russia’s work with OPEC, which created a new Russia-Saudi axis to help manage global oil production and push up prices, has helped revive the Russian economy (while angering President Trump). Of course, Russia would be overjoyed to step in to any void left by the US if lawmakers force a rupture in the US-Saudi relationship, as evidenced by the recent agreement to sell Russian S-400 missiles to the Saudis. Two weeks ago, Putin criticized the US and its sanctions against Russia, Iran and others, saying the US was “making a colossal mistake” and risked undermining the dollar in its role as the global reserve currency. The IMF now believes Russian GDP will grow by 1.8% next year, up from a previous report published in July, which projected Russia’s GDP growth at 1.7% in 2019, with growth supported by stronger domestic demand and higher fuel prices.

Oil prices ease as supply outlook improves: Kemp(Reuters) – Oil prices and calendar spreads have softened significantly this month as traders became more confident about the availability of supplies towards the end of the year and into early 2019. Iran’s exports have not declined as much as predicted a couple of months ago and it is now clear they will not fall to zero, even after U.S. sanctions are re-imposed next month. Refiners in Turkey, India and possibly China are reportedly negotiating with U.S. officials over waivers to enable them to continue purchasing at least some Iranian oil after Nov. 4. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers have boosted their exports in response to the earlier rise in prices and pressure from the United States to cool the market. Traders, meanwhile, have become more cautious about the consumption outlook for the rest of 2018/19, with most indicators pointing to a loss of economic momentum outside the United States. As a result, most major forecasters are now predicting a significant acceleration in non-OPEC oil supplies in 2019 as well as slower growth in consumption, shifting the outlook from one of continuing deficits back towards a surplus. In part, the improved supply picture has come about because the surge in oil prices during August and September forced both the White House and Saudi Arabia to adapt their positions. The United States has softened its insistence on forcing Iran’s exports towards zero, while Saudi Arabia has ramped up its own exports in October and November to alleviate fears about a possible shortage. In effect, the oil market found the pain threshold for the U.S. administration, which lies at around $80 per barrel for Brent, and pushed prices high enough to enforce a partial course correction from policymakers.

Oil slips below $80 on rising US stockpiles – Oil fell $1 a barrel to below $80 on Thursday as the fourth weekly increase in U.S. crude inventories suggested ample supply, while Saudi-U.S. tension and falling Iranian exports lent support.Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down $1.25, or 1.6 percent, at $78.80 a barrel at 8:45 a.m. ET (1245 GMT). It has dropped by about $8 from a high of $86.74 reached on Oct. 3.U.S. crude was down $1.01, or 1.5 percent, at $68.74, after falling 3 percent in the previous session to settle below $70 for the first time in a month.U.S. crude inventories rose 6.5 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, the fourth straight weekly increase and almost three times what analysts had forecast.Inventories rose sharply even as U.S. crude production slipped 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.9 million bpd last week due to the effects of offshore facilities closing temporarily for Hurricane Michael.”Stocks are building,” said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix. “It’s a continuous trend. Week after week, it does start to add up.”Oil prices had been rising this week on concern about a decline in Iranian exports due to U.S. sanctions and tension between the United States and Saudi Arabia after the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.U.S. lawmakers pointed the finger at the Saudi leadership over the disappearance of the Saudi critic, suggesting sanctions could be possible. Saudi Arabia denies that it had any role in Khashoggi’s disappearance. But President Donald Trump on Wednesday gave Saudi Arabia the benefit of the doubt in the journalist’s disappearance, suggesting the White House may not take additional action against Saudi Arabia.

Oil Ends Down Again; Questions Linger Over Iran Sanctions – With a little more than two weeks to go until the most-anticipated development in oil markets this year, traders look flummoxed about the impact of Iran oil sanctions due Nov. 4. Prices for New York-traded WTI futures and its U.K. peer Brent settled down again on Thursday after falling 3% the previous day, as U.S. oil inventories showed an outsized build for a fourth week running. Data from TankerTrackers, an independent oil cargo surveyor, showed on Wednesday that Iran exported 2.2 million barrels per day in the first two weeks of October, not far from the peak of 2.7 million bpd it shipped in May before the U.S. decision to reimpose sanctions against the Islamic state. Meanwhile, Turkey’s top refiner, Tupras, was in talks with U.S. officials to obtain a waiver allowing it to keep buying Iranian oil after Nov. 4, Reuters reported, citing industry sources. A mix of confusing signals from Saudi Arabia’s crisis over missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi to varying supply-demand reports from sources tracking the global movement of crude added to market noise in the latest session. “I feel like this is a classic ‘gut check’ to the bulls in front of the Iran sanctions as … everyone (got) into a bullish frenzy, where the derivatives traders bought futures, the physical traders bought cargos and we all talked ourselves into being long $85 Brent, as everyone was talking about $100 oil,” said Scott Shelton, broker at ICAP (LON:NXGN) in Durham, N.C.. “The buying is done now, (but) I still find us to be on the bottom of the range. We may stay here for a while as the market mentally struggles with the WTI spreads being contango and the spread yield to being long WTI has evaporated,” Shelton added. WTI’s front-month contract, November, settled down $1.10, or 1.6%, at $68.65 per barrel, after hitting a one-month low at $68.47. November WTI’s spread, or difference, with the ensuing month December was a negative 10 cents, a situation described in commodity markets as contango. Since financial speculators in crude do not take delivery of physical oil, they roll out of the front-month to the subsequent month before contract expiry. A negative yield at that moment will mean loss of money. Brent, the global benchmark for crude, was down 52 cents, or 0.5%, at $79.53 by 2:46 PM ET (18:46 GMT).

Oil Trades Near Lowest Level in a Month— Oil traded near the lowest level in a month after a bigger-than-expected gain in American stockpiles overshadowed tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia over a missing critic of the kingdom. Futures in New York were little changed, after plunging 3 percent Wednesday, the biggest drop since August. U.S. crude inventories rose 6.49 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration reported, more than twice the rate forecast in a Bloomberg survey before the data was released. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and his top diplomat cautioned against putting the entire U.S.-Saudi relationship at risk over dissident writer Jamal Khashoggi. Crude bumped higher this year as uncertainties persisted over whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners can offset potential supply losses from U.S. sanctions on Iran that kick in early next month. The gains were further supported by the escalating U.S.-Saudi tensions after Trump pledged “severe punishment” should the Saudis be linked to Khashoggi’s disappearance. “The looming Iranian supply disruption and the conflict between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are pushing traders to take a cautious stance at the moment,” Will Yun, a commodities analyst at Hyundai Futures Corp., said by phone from Seoul. “That comes after prices dropped sharply on Wednesday as U.S. crude stockpiles surged more than what the market had expected.” West Texas Intermediate for November delivery traded 11 cents lower at $69.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:25 p.m. in Singapore. The contract declined $2.17 to $69.75 on Wednesday. Total volume traded was about 9 percent below the 100-day average. Brent for December settlement was at $79.89 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark’s premium was at a $10.25 to WTI for the same month, after settling at the highest level since June 11 on Wednesday. In the U.S., nationwide crude stockpiles have risen for four straight weeks in the longest streak of gains since early 2017. Inventories in the American storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, have also increased by about 1.8 million barrels last week to more than 28 million barrels, the highest level in almost four months.

Oil plunges 11% in just 2 weeks, shrugging off Iran sanctions and Saudi tension -Talk of oil prices spiking to $100 has been replaced by another discussion: How low can crude futures go?The oil market has undergone a spectacular reversal, even against a backdrop of looming U.S. sanctions onIran, OPEC’s third-largest crude producer, and rising tensions between Washington and Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter.U.S. crude futures fell to a nearly five-week low of $68.47 on Thursday, plunging more than $8 a barrel from this month’s four-year high at $76.90. That’s a remarkable 11 percent plunge from peak to trough over just two weeks.Meanwhile, Brent crude bottomed out at $78.69 a barrel on Thursday, down $8, or 9.3 percent, from its four-year high at $86.74 on Oct. 3.There are three reasons oil prices have fallen so far so fast, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at tanker-tracking firm ClipperData.First, the supply of oil held in U.S. storage tanks has risen sharply over the last four weeks. U.S. crude stockpiles are up by 22.3 million barrels through last week. That’s the biggest increase over that four-week period since 2015, when storage levels were rising toward all-time highs in a heavily oversupplied market.Second, Brent crude’s spike above $86 a barrel two weeks ago sparked fears that the high cost of oil would start to erode demand for the commodity. In recent weeks, OPEC and the International Energy Agency have knocked down their forecasts for growth in oil demand in light of a weaker outlook for global economic gains. Last, crude got swept up in a sell-off last week that saw investors dump risk assets. During the two-day stock market rout alone, crude futures fell by more than 5 percent.

Oil prices edge up, but set for a weekly loss on stock build, trade row –Oil prices rose on Friday on signs of surging demand in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, although the market was heading for a second week of losses on rising U.S. inventories and concern that trade wars were curbing economic activity.Benchmark Brent crude oil jumped $1.14 a barrel, or 1.4 percent, to a high of $80.43 before easing back to around $80.06, up 77 cents by 11:36 a.m. ET. U.S. light crude was 71 cents higher at $69.36.For the week, Brent crude was 0.2 percent lower while U.S. crude was down 2.9 percent, both on track for a second consecutive weekly decline, and down around $7 a barrel from four-year highs reached in early October.”After two consecutive days of slide the oil market is staging a half-hearted come-back,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil. “Maybe it is down to some pre-weekend short-covering.”Refinery throughput in China, the world’s largest oil importer, rose to a record high of 12.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in September as some independent plants restarted operations after prolonged shutdowns over the summer to shore up inventories, government data showed on Friday.Undermining sentiment were official figures showing China’s economic growth slowed in the third quarter to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis, with gross domestic product expanding by only 6.5 percent, missing estimates.The data raised concerns that China’s trade war with United States was beginning to hit growth, which may limit oil demand.Also denting confidence was evidence this week that U.S. oil inventories had risen sharply. U.S. crude stocks last week climbed 6.5 million barrels, marking a fourth straight weekly build and almost triple the amount analysts had forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Where Have The Oil Bulls Gone? – The oil market is suddenly rather sanguine about a supply shortage in the short run. “The concerns about a tightening of supply, which dominated markets until two weeks ago, have abated despite the fact that the reasons for them (falling Iranian oil exports, declining oil production in Venezuela, reduced spare capacities) still apply,” Commerzbank said in a note. The bank said that the recent uptick in inventories provides some cover, and traders are no longer on edge about shortages. “Nonetheless, we believe it is still too early to sound the all-clear for the oil market.” Oilfield services companies are expected to post mediocre figures when they report third quarter results in the coming days. Oil producers have been under pressure to keep costs low, which means less revenue for servicers as more drillers are doing work in-house. Also, U.S. tariffs are driving up the cost for projects. “The risk for a number of (oilfield service) firms is to the downside,” Brad Handler, a Jefferies equity analyst in New York, told Reuters. The overuse of sanctions by the Trump administration is undermining their effectiveness, according to Jacob Lew, the U.S. Treasury Secretary under President Obama, and Richard Nephew, the lead on Iran sanctions during the Obama administration. “Today, Washington is increasingly using its economic power in aggressive and counterproductive ways, undermining its global position and thus its ability to act effectively in the future,” Lew and Nephew write in a Foreign Affairs essay. Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said that $100 oil is not “very likely.” “We’re not saying $100 oil cannot happen. It’s not our base case nor do we think it’s very likely,” Currie told S&P Global Platts in an interview. Reaching $100 would require a “sustainable loss in all of Iran’s oil exports for an extendable period of time.” The latest EIA report showed another strong increase in inventories, which helped push down prices mid-week. The data release also revealed a sudden drop in production, but that figure is an anomaly due to hurricane-related outages. Also, the effort by the Trump administration to smooth over tension with Saudi Arabia tamped down geopolitical concerns. “The inventory numbers were a real bearish surprise,” Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, told Bloomberg. “That combined with the gradual lessening of tension” between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia “has taken some of the steam out of the market.”

Oil Set for Weekly Loss – — Oil is poised for a second weekly drop after a larger-than-expected gain in American crude stockpiles eclipsed tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of a prominent critic of the kingdom. Futures in New York headed for a 3.4 percent loss this week as government data showed U.S. inventories grew by more than double what analysts had forecast. Prices were little changed on Friday after President Donald Trump said it “certainly looks” like missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi is dead and warned of “very severe” consequences for the killing. Also in oil markets, the front-month contract traded below the following month’s settlement in New York, flipping into negative territory this week in a condition known as contango. That signals oil traders are turning less optimistic on the near-term direction of the market. The U.S. inventories data “was a complete shocker, sending oil markets spiraling lower,” said Stephen Innes, Singapore-based head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp. “Price action and discovery suggests traders are no longer concerned about how high prices will go but rather how quickly they will fall. As for today, at least, the bid on dip mentality has run for cover.” Crude’s rally has staggered since hitting a four-year high earlier this month as the growth in U.S. inventories for a fourth week added to concerns over the lingering trade war between America and China. In the midst of mounting tensions surrounding Saudi Arabia, data showed the world’s largest oil exporter boosted crude output in August as it sticks to its OPEC pledge to pump more. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery traded 23 cents higher, or up 0.4 percent, at $68.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:32 a.m. in London. The contract declined 1.6 percent to $68.65 on Thursday. Total volume traded was about 25 percent below the 100-day average. Brent for December settlement was at $79.60 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, up 31 cents. The contract fell 1 percent to $79.29 on Thursday, and is down 1.1 percent for the week. The global benchmark’s premium was at a $10.66 to WTI for the same month.

Baker Hughes: US rig count up 4 units to 1,067 – The US drilling rig count was up 4 units to 1,067 rigs working for the week ended Oct. 19, according to Baker Hughes data. The count is up 154 units from the 913 rigs working this time a year ago.Land-based rigs rose 7 units to 1,044 for the week. Offshore units fell by 3 to 20 rigs working, while those drilling in inland waters remained unchanged at 3 rigs working.Oil-directed rigs were up 4 units from last week to 873 units working, and up from the 736 rigs drilling for oil this week a year ago. Gas-directed rigs were up 1 unit to 194, and up from the 177 units drilling for gas a year ago. Unclassified rigs were down 1 unit, leaving no units working. Among the major oil and gas-producing states, Texas saw the largest increase in rigs for the second week in a row with another 8-rig jump to 540. California, with its 2-rig gain to 15 units working, was the only other state to see an increase for the week. Eight states were unchanged this week: Louisiana, 64; North Dakota, 52; Colorado, 33; Wyoming, 30; Ohio, 17; West Virginia, 13; Utah, 6; and Kansas, 1. Oklahoma and Pennsylvania each dropped a single rig to reach 141 and 44, respectively.With a loss of 2 units each, New Mexico, at 100, and Alaska, at 3, saw the largest drop in rigs for the week. Canada’s rig count fell by 4 for the week. With 191 rigs running, the count falls short of the 202 units drilling this week a year ago. Canada lost 4 oil-directed rigs to reach 123 units for the week. Its gas-directed rig count remained unchanged at 68.

Oil Up on Day, but U.S. Crude Loses 3% After Rough Week – – Oil prices rose on Friday, but remained at an inflection point after a rough week. Reports of record Chinese demand for crude and of producers’ struggling to boost output suggest prices should be higher. But surging stockpiles and a rise in drilling activity in the U.S. indicate the path of least resistance is lower. The conflicting themes were on display as Brent, the global benchmark for oil, posted a drop of nearly 1% on the week, while WTI had a weekly loss of 3%. Some think WTI will return to its recent perch above $70 per barrel and dismiss this week’s tumble as aberration, or simply profit-taking, ahead of the expiry of its front-month November contract on Monday. “Despite the weakness into contract expiration, nothing has changed,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Chicago’s Price Futures Group, who’s typically bullish on oil. He referred to an earlier 3% selloff in WTI on Aug. 15, which he said was ahead of contract expiration as well. “That was just a correction,” he said. “So is this down move.” Others, such as Phil Davis at PSW Investments in New York, believe WTI should trade at $65 or below in coming weeks and that Brent might slip another $5 or so to hover around $75. “Logically, oil is overpriced with the kind of builds we’ve seen in U.S. crude lately and the growing notion that the Iran sanctions might not hit as hard as thought. The only problem is finding the right entry point to short WTI and Brent,” Davis said. WTI settled up 47 cents, or 0.7%, at $69.13 per barrel. The U.S. crude benchmark gave back much of its early gains on data showing the U.S. rig count had risen to March 2015 highs after drillers added four rigs this week. Brent settled up 49 cents, or 0.6%, at $79.78. In Friday’s trading, oil was supported by government data showing refinery throughput in China, the world’s largest oil importer, rising to a record high of 12.49 million barrels per day in September as some independent plants restarted operations after prolonged shutdowns over the summer to shore up inventories. OPEC, meanwhile, was struggling to add barrels to the market after agreeing in June to increase output, according to an internal document seen by Reuters.

Turkish paper reports: Saudi journalist’s watch may have transmitted evidence of his death –Missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi may have recorded his own death, a Turkish newspaper reported Saturday morning. Khashoggi turned on the recording function of his Apple Watch before walking into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2, according to Sabah newspaper. The moments of his “interrogation, torture and killing were audio recorded and sent to both his phone and to iCloud,” the pro-government, privately owned newspaper paper reported. The Turkish newspaper said conversations of the men involved in the reported assassination were recorded. Security forces leading the investigation found the audio file inside the phone Khashoggi left with his fiancé, according to Sabah.Upon noticing the watch, Sabah reports, Khashoggi’s assailants tried to unlock the Apple Watch with multiple password attempts, ultimately using Khashoggi’s fingerprint to unlock the smart watch. They were successful in deleting only some of the files, Sabah reported.However, on its website, Apple does not list fingerprint verification as one of the Apple Watch’s capabilities. A representative from the company confirmed to CNN the watches do not have the feature.It was not immediately clear whether it would have been technically feasible for Khashoggi’s Apple Watch to transfer audio to his phone, which he had given to his fiancée before entering the consulate.CNN cannot independently verify the Sabah report and is seeking comment from both Saudi and Turkish officials. CNN intelligence and security analyst Robert Baer cast doubt on the claim, saying it was too far for a Bluetooth connection and that Khashoggi was unlikely to have anticipated transmitting a recording in advance. “I think what’s happened, clearly, is the Turks have the Saudi consulate wired, they have transmitters,” he told CNN’s Anderson Cooper.

Saudi media: Any US sanctions over Khashoggi would ‘stab its own economy to death’ — As international pressure mounted on Saudi Arabia over the case of missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the kingdom came out swinging Sunday, threatening to retaliate and spelling out the ways in which Riyadh would punish the US if it imposed sanctions. Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post and Saudi royal insider-turned-critic, went missing after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2 to obtain paperwork that would allow him to marry his Turkish fiancée. His disappearance has drawn international condemnation and sparked warnings from US President Donald Trump on Saturday of “severe punishment” if the Saudis are found to be behind his death. Britain, France and Germany also said on Sunday they were demanding a “credible investigation.” In a statement Sunday on the official Saudi Press Agency attributed to “an official,” the kingdom rejected any threats of economic sanctions or political pressure and said it would “respond with greater action.” But in a strongly worded op-ed published later on Sunday, Turki Aldakhil, general manager of the Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya news channel, warned that if the US imposed sanctions on Riyadh “it will stab its own economy to death,” cause oil prices to reach as high as $200 a barrel, lead Riyadh to permit a Russian military base in the city of Tabuk, and drive the Middle East into the arms of Iran. “The information circulating within decision-making circles within the kingdom have gone beyond the rosy language used in the statement,” Aldakhil wrote, referring to the earlier comment. “There are simple procedures, that are part of over 30 others, that Riyadh will implement directly, without flinching an eye if sanctions are imposed,” he said. “If US sanctions are imposed on Saudi Arabia, we will be facing an economic disaster that would rock the entire world,” he added. “if the price of oil reaching $80 angered President Trump, no one should rule out the price jumping to $100, or $200, or even double that figure.”

Saudis Break 45-Year Taboo with Veiled Oil Threat — For 45 years, it’s been considered out of bounds for Saudi Arabia. But all of a sudden, Riyadh made what many read as a veiled threat to use the kingdom’s oil wealth as a political weapon — something unheard of since the 1973 Arab embargo that triggered the first oil crisis. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, said on Sunday it would retaliate against any punitive measures linked to the disappearance of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi with even “stronger ones.” In an implicit reference to the kingdom’s petroleum wealth, the statement noted the Saudi economy “has an influential and vital role in the global economy.” Roger Diwan, a longstanding OPEC watcher at consultant IHS Markit Ltd., said the Saudi comments broke “an essential oil market taboo.” While few think that Saudi Arabia is prepared to follow through, even the suggestion of using oil as a weapon undermines Riyadh’s long-standing effort to project itself as a force for economic stability. Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Inc., said Middle East tensions impacting the oil market have now “broadened to include Saudi Arabia.” The anxieties were exacerbated by an opinion piece penned by Turki Al Dakhil, who heads the state-owned Arabiya news network and is close to the Royal Court, in which he openly talked about using oil as a weapon. “If President Trump was angered by $80 oil, nobody should rule out the price jumping to $100 and $200 a barrel or maybe double that figure,” he wrote. The Saudi embassy in Washington later said Al Dakhil didn’t represent the official position of the kingdom and Saudi officials, speaking privately, said there wasn’t a change in the long-held policy that oil and politics don’t mix. On Monday, Khalid Al-Falih, the Saudi energy minister, used a speech in India to soothe concerns, pledging his country will continue to be a responsible actor and keep oil markets stable.

Suspects in journalist’s disappearance linked to Saudi crown prince: report – Several suspects that Turkish authorities have identified involving the disappearance of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi have been linked to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman or his security detail, according to a new report.One of the suspects identified by Turkish authorities was Mohammed’s travel companion, seen exiting planes with him in Paris and Madrid and photographed standing guard during visits to Houston, Boston and the United Nations this year, The New York Times reports.Witnesses and other records have linked three other suspects in Khashoggi’s disappearance to Mohammed’s security detail, while a fifth suspect has top positions in the country’s Interior Ministry and medical establishment, according to the Times. The newspaper reported that the fifth suspect is “a figure of such stature that he could be directed only by a high-ranking Saudi authority.” After speaking with Mohammed,President Trump said Tuesdaythat the crown prince “totally denied any knowledge” of Khashoggi’s fate.The U.S.-based journalist, who has been critical of Saudi leadership, disappeared after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2.Turkish authorities have accused the Saudi government of killing and dismembering Khashoggi inside the consulate. Trump suggested on Monday after speaking with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman that “rogue killers” may be responsible for the death of Khashoggi.

NYT Identifies Four Suspected Saudi Hit Squad Members As ‘Close Associates’ Of Crown Prince — After two days of non-stop news pertaining to the widening backlash to the disappearance of Saudi insider-turned dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who is widely suspected to have been murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul during a trip to obtain a marriage license, the New York Times waited until 6:30 pm ET to drop one of the biggest bombshells yet. Citing sources from within the Turkish government (who have taken the lead in directing the international outrage by first leaking information about Khashoggi’s killing, then following that up with claims that they had substantive evidence), the NYT reports that Turkish officials have linked four members of the 15-man Saudi hit squad purportedly sent to ambush Khashoggi to Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who earlier today denied having any knowledge of the killing during a conversation with President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.One of the men is a diplomat who has been frequently spotted in the Crown Prince’s company, including being photographed with MbS during his visit to the US earlier this year. Three others have been linked to MbS’s security detail. A fifth was a doctor and autopsy expert, whose presence suggests that Khashoggi’s murder was a premeditated hit – not the actions of “rogue operatives” as the Saudi government and Trump have suggested. The news is bound to produce a fresh round of outrage directed at MbS, whose authoritarian crackdown on political rivals within Saudi Arabia, as well as his escalation of the conflict in Yemen (which Saudi Arabia has blithely supported with arms and financing) and the kidnapping last year of the Prime Minister of Lebanon have undermined his reputation as a reformer (a reputation that, ironically, the NYT first helped to burnish). Turkish authorities have said that the 15-man team flew into Istanbul on two chartered jets on Oct. 2, the day Khashoggi walked into the embassy only to never be seen or heard from again. Flight records indicate that some or all of the men left later that day, and that their planes stopped in Dubai on the way back to Saudi Arabia. Turkish officials told the Times that all 15 suspects are Saudi security officers, intelligence agents or government employees. At least 9 of them worked for the Saudi security services, military or other government ministries. One of the men was identified as Maher Abdulaziz Mutreb, a diplomat who is one of the Crown Prince’s closest associates.

Saudi Arabia’s crown prince went a ghastly step too far –According to news reports, Saudi Arabia’s leaders might be preparing to announce that journalist Jamal Khashoggi was indeed killed inside the country’s consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. Apparently they plan to explain away his death as a botched abduction attempt carried out by “rogue” killers – an extremely unlikely scenario, given the ruthlessly centralized structure of the Saudi regime.Whatever happens next, it is already clear that Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, has gone a ghastly step too far in his ruthless pursuit of absolute power.Khashoggi, 59 at the time of his reported death, was far more than an excellent reporter and analyst of his beloved kingdom. As one of its leading critics (a role that included his stint as a Post columnist), he became a high-profile symbol of the daunting struggle for media freedom throughout the Arab world today. Most ironically, he had respect for the reforms being undertaken by the very Saudi prince who probably gave the orders for his suspected extrajudicial murder. Khashoggi’s unpardonable sin was to call for debate not about the crown prince’s social reforms, which he wholeheartedly supported, but about the crown prince’s stifling intolerance for anyone who cast even a speck of dirt on his highly polished image as the kingdom’s long-awaited savior. I have known Khashoggi for at least two decades, and we were scheduled to have lunch together as soon as he returned from Istanbul to discuss the status of his efforts to obtain a green card allowing him to become a permanent resident in the United States. He had a book project in mind to write at the Wilson Center in Washington, where I am a Middle East fellow after working for 35 years for The Post, including four years as its Middle East correspondent. The Wilson Center had offered him a fellowship, but he needed his green card first.

Settling The Khashoggi Case Is A Difficult Matter –The negotiation over the Khashoggi case will be extremely difficult. The protagonists are headstrong and dangerous people. The issue could easily escalate. The Ottoman empire ruled over much of the Arab world. The neo-Ottoman wannabe-Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan would like to regain that historic position for Turkey. His main competition in this are the al-Sauds. They have much more money and are strategically aligned with Israel and the United States, while Turkey under Erdogan is more or less isolated. The religious-political element of the competition is represented on one side by the Muslim Brotherhood, ‘democratic’ Islamists to which Erdogan belongs, and the Wahhabi absolutists on the other side.There are more tactical aspects to this historic conflict. When the Saudis cut ties with Qatar it was Turkey that sent its military to prevent a Saudi invasion of the tiny but extremely rich country. This gave Erdogan the financial backing he urgently needs. In response to that the Saudis offered several $100 millions to prop up the YPK/PKK proxy force the U.S. uses to occupy north-east Syria. These Kurdish groups fight a guerrilla war within Turkey and are a threat to its unity.The effective Saudi ruler, clown prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS), made a huge mistake when he ordered the abduction (or murder) of the Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul. The botched operation gave Erdogan a tool to cut the Saudis to size. But he needs U.S. support to achieve that. The recent release of the U.S. pastor (and CIA asset) Andrew Brunson is supposed to buy him good will with U.S. President Donald Trump. But Trump build his Middle East policy on his Saudi relations. He can not go berserk on them. Some solution must be found.

Saudis to admit journalist Khashoggi was killed by mistake: reports — Saudi Arabia is preparing an official account that will admit journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, according to multiple reports on Monday.It is not clear how much responsibility Saudi Arabia will take for the journalist’s death, as reports indicate that while an official narrative is being prepared it is not complete.The kingdom will reportedly deflect responsibility for the death away from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by saying Khashoggi’s death was “unintentional” and the result of a “botched operation” by Saudi agents who were not authorized by the government’s top authorities, two sources told CNN. “We are hearing from the sources at this stage that [the operation] was not carried out with the proper clearance,” CNN’s Clarissa Ward said on air.”There will be plenty of people who will have difficulty swallowing that narrative, [saying] it’s hard to believe anything of this nature, of this sensitivity, could possibly take place without those in power in Saudi Arabia … being privy to it on some level,” Ward noted. A source familiar with Saudi plans told The New York Times earlier Monday that Saudi Arabia was planning to indicate the killing was done by an incompetent intelligence official.The Wall Street Journal also reported Saudis are weighing admitting one of their intelligence officials killed Khashoggi by mistake.A joint team of Saudi and Turkish investigators on Monday began their search of the Saudi consulate in Turkey, where Khashoggi went missing on Oct. 2. Turkish reports have indicated Saudi agents were likely working on orders from Riyadh when they allegedly dismembered and killed Khashoggi. Turkey said they have unreleased video and audio evidence of the incident. Saudi Arabia has so far denied a role in Khashoggi’s disappearance.

Saudi Arabia To Admit Khashoggi Killed During “Botched Interrogation” – As the Saudis prepare to pin Khashoggi’s murder on “rogue killers”, just as President Trump had advised, the office of Turkey’s attorney general has leaked the first findings from Turkish prosecutors’ search of the Saudi consulate to Al Jazeera (a news organization that his financed by Qatar, a geopolitical nemesis of the Kingdom, which took place on Monday, nearly two weeks after Khashoggi disappeared. In addition to reportedly discovering evidence that Khashoggi had been killed inside the consulate, Turkish investigators also found “evidence of tampering” – suggesting that the Saudis tried to cover up the crime. Though it may have been a coincidence, a team of professional cleaners was spotted entering the consulate early Monday. A source at the Attorney General’s office, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera “they have found evidence that supports their suspicions that Jamal Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi consulate,” our correspondent Jamal Elshayyal reported from Istanbul. “This is a significant step forward after several days of an impasse,” he said. The Attorney General’s office also said their team inside the consulate found evidence of “tampering”, Elshayyal added. Meanwhile, CNN is reporting that Saudi Arabia is preparing to admit that Khashoggi was killed as the result of an interrogation that went wrong, citing two unnamed sources. One source cautioned that a report was still being prepared and could change, CNN said. The other source said the report would likely conclude that the operation was carried out without clearance and that those involved will be held responsible, the news outlet said. Considering that Saudi Arabia is effectively a Medieval Theocracy that still beheads hundreds of people every year via sword, we imagine the men who actually killed Khashoggi (and according to Turkish flight records, they were almost certainly men) must be feeling pretty anxious right about now.

Saudis Plan To Pin Khashoggi Slaying on ‘Rogue’ General – The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is starting to float a trial-balloon explanation for its apparent slaying of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, The Daily Beast has learned, in hopes of escaping the consequences of an episode that has shaken whatever geopolitical confidence existed in Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. According to two sources familiar with the version of events circulating throughout diplomatic circles in Washington, the Saudis will place blame for Khashoggi’s murder on a Saudi two-star general new to intelligence work. That line is in keeping with President Donald Trump’s Twitter-borne speculation that “rogue killers” may be responsible for whatever happened to Khashoggi inside Saudi Arabia’s Istanbul consulate on Oct. 2. Three other former U.S. officials did not have direct knowledge of the inchoate Saudi line but told The Daily Beast they expect Riyadh to blame a fall guy. The Saudis are considering admitting that the general received approval from the Crown Prince to interrogate Khashoggi on the suspicion that he was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist political faction whose rise during the Arab Spring prompted the Saudis and their allies in the United Arab Emirates to sponsor a wave of reaction. They also are considering intimating that Khashoggi received money from Gulf rival Qatar. But, the Saudi story continues, this overeager general exceeded bin Salman’s intentions. He improvised a rendition to send Khashoggi from Turkey back to Saudi Arabia – and botched it, killing him. Then he lied to his Saudi superiors about what happened. “It’s ludicrous in the extreme. Saudi Arabia doesn’t work that way. They don’t freelance operations.”

Coverup Deal Will Blame Khashoggi Death On Extreme Torture – The coverup of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, killed on behalf of the Saudi clown prince Mohammad bin Salman, proceeds apace. It is part of a deal between Turkey and Saudi Arabia under the aegis of the United States. The haggling over the details will take a while.Several media report of a test ballon, floated to find out if an ‘alternative’ story will fly:Saudi Arabia was preparing an alternative explanation of the fate of a dissident journalist on Monday, saying he died at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul two weeks ago in an interrogation gone wrong, according to a person familiar with the kingdom’s plans. In Washington, President Trump echoed the possibility that Jamal Khashoggi was the victim of “rogue killers.” ..[O]n Monday, a person familiar with the Saudi government’s plans said that Mr. Khashoggi was mistakenly killed during an interrogation ordered by a Saudi intelligence official who was a friend of the crown prince. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Prince Mohammed had approved interrogating or even forcing Mr. Khashoggi to return to Saudi Arabia under duress. But, the person said, the Saudi intelligence official went too far in eagerly seeking to prove himself in secretive operations, then sought to cover up the botched job. One might expand on that fairytale: “The Saudi general who allegedly botched the interrogation of Jamal Khashoggi mysteriously died in a Saudi air force plane crash on the same day the coverup story was floated.”

Saudis To Blame Top General For Journalist’s Killing- NYT – Less than a day after the New York Times published a report claiming that US intelligence agencies believe Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman gave the order to murder and dismember a former Saudi insider turned critic inside the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul, the Grey Lady has published yet another scoop claiming that the Saudis have selected a scapegoat who will most likely take the fall for the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Anonymous officials with knowledge of the Saudis’ plans said the kingdom is close to blaming to Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, a high-ranking intelligence official and adviser to the crown prince, as the man responsible for masterminding the plot. The report followed another anonymously sourced report from earlier in the week claiming the Saudis were preparing to admit that Khashoggi had been killed during a botched interrogation. Though the kingdom still has “a few more days” to complete its investigation, according to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, scrutiny of General Assiri has intensified as the kingdom believes he would blaming him could provide “a plausible explanation for the killing” while “helping to deflect blame from the crown prince” as calls for MbS’s ouster intensify. Perhaps to add an element of plausibility to the story, the Saudis are also expected to say that MbS “signed off” on the murder plot. General Assiri, who previously served as the spokesman for the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, is close enough to the crown prince to have easy access to his ear and has considerable authority to enlist lower ranking personnel in a mission. The Saudi rulers are expected to say that Mr. Assiri received verbal authorization from Prince Mohammed to capture Mr. Khashoggi for an interrogation in Saudi Arabia, but either misunderstood his instructions or overstepped that authorization and took the dissident’s life, according to the two of the people familiar with the Saudi plans. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief journalists.

Saudi Media Casts Khashoggi Disappearance as a Conspiracy, Claims Qatar Owns Washington Post — In Saudi Arabia, major media outlets have cast the disappearance and apparent murder of Saudi dissident and Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi as a foreign conspiracy to denigrate the image of the kingdom. The media accounts, which come from outlets run with the backing of Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf monarchies, are spinning the coverage of Khashoggi’s disappearance as a plot by rival governments and political groups to hurt the kingdom – going so far as to make false claims about the Washington Post’s owners.The English-language arm of the news channel Al Arabiya, for instance, claimed that reports of Khashoggi’s detention inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul were pushed by “media outlets affiliated with the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar” – the pan-Arab Islamist political movement and rival Persian Gulf monarchy, respectively. A subsequent story on Al Arabiya casts doubt that Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, is truly who she says she is, claiming that her Twitter profile shows that she follows “critics of Saudi Arabia.”Al Arabiya is owned by the Saudi royal family and based in Dubai, one of the Gulf monarchies that has sided closely with Saudi Arabia amid the regional row with Qatar and others. It’s among a handful of other Saudi- and Gulf-controlled outlets – such as Al Riyadh Daily, Al-Hayat, and the Saudi Gazette – that toe their governments’ line, including frequently casting a conspiratorial light on critics of the governments’ human rights records.

Saudi Arabia’s oil weapon doesn’t work: Kemp – (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia is unlikely to employ its so-called “oil weapon” in the diplomatic crisis over the disappearance of a journalist after visiting the country’s consulate in Istanbul.Experience from the last time Saudi Arabia tried to use oil sales as a diplomatic instrument in 1973/74 shows such action does not work and the kingdom itself would be the biggest victim.Despite some of the impassioned rhetoric in Saudi media, self-interest makes it improbable the government will retaliate by reducing oil sales or trying to drive up prices.That has not stopped some veiled threats to weaponise oil production and prices, but they should be interpreted as an urgent plea for support and understanding rather than a serious threat.”If U.S. sanctions are imposed on Saudi Arabia, we will be facing an economic disaster that would rock the entire world,” according to one heated editorial (“U.S. sanctions would mean Washington is stabbing itself“, Al Arabiya, Oct. 14).”Riyadh is the capital of (global) oil and touching this would affect oil production before any other vital commodity,” the editorial warned.If the price of oil reaching $80 a barrel angered U.S. President Donald Trump, “no one should rule out the price jumping to $100, or $200, or even double that figure”, the author said bluntly. The government’s official response has been more circumspect but it nonetheless warned that it would respond to any action with even greater retaliation and pointed to the kingdom’s “influential and vital role in the global economy”.

Saudis Must Cough Up Billions To Settle Khashoggi Case –The Khashoggi case, discussed here, will be moved off the news pages even faster than assumed. A CNN correspondent just tweeted this: Erdogan spox: “At the request of Saudi Arabia, a joint working group will be established to uncover the events surrounding Jamal Khashoggi.” Translation: Erdogan spox: “Our Sultan received a sufficient down payment to start negotiating about the burial of the case.”Prediction:Erdogan will use the ‘joint working group’ to squeeze as much as he can out of the Saudis. (A deal may even include a political settlement of the Saudi blockade of Erdogan’s sponsor Qatar.)Yesterday 22 Senators signed a request to Trump to investigate the Khashoggi case under the Global Magnitsky Act. The Trump administration has 120 days to finish the investigation and to report back to the Senate. Any person or organization found to be involved in the kidnapping and possible murder of Khashoggi could then come under U.S. sanctions.Those 120 days are the time-frame for Erdogan to use the thumbscrews the Saudi fuckup in its consulate in Istanbul handed him. The Saudi clown prince Mohammad bin Salman will get squeezed like never before. It will cost him billions to purchase the video of the Khashoggi killing the Turkish government claims to have. Erdogan will not be the only one to profit from the issue. The Senate move gives Trump enormous leverage over the Saudis. He will use it.Trump loudly claimed that he personally closed a $110 billion deal in which the Saudis purchase more useless weapons. There never was a ‘deal’, only some non-binding letters of intent. The Saudis have been reluctant to follow through. They did not pony up the $15 billion for the U.S. made THAAD missile defense systems Trump ‘sold’ them and even talked with Russia about buying the much cheaper and better S-400

The Full Story of Why MbS Might Have Wanted Jamal Khashoggi Dead – This was not a straightforward snatch and grab attempt. The officers sent to Istanbul to deal with Jamal Khashoggi were given clear instructions; return with Khashoggi alive or kill him there.That order did not come from any senior general or bureaucrat, but straight from the de-facto head of the largest Royal family in the world that controls the world’s largest proven oil reserves.It comes from the last remaining bastion of medieval court politics, ironically supported by the seemingly unstoppable tide of global populism.A giant of a man yet with an approachable demeanor, Jamal Khashoggi had an intimidating contact list that included leaders, politicians, businessmen and, what would help lead to his tragic death, the numbers of some of the most senior members of the House of Saud.Khashoggi was the go-to man for almost every Western journalist, think-tanker and academic looking for a quick soundbite from a reliable source on Saudi Arabia, popular Saudi reactions to Western policies.Indeed, in his work with The Washington Post, he pursued writing with a new vigour, often smiling wryly as he read the online threats and insults from Saudi government trolls and their systematic campaigns. In one answer to them, Jamal talked about how sad he was at their existence. History will vindicate those jailed and tortured while it would ignore these trolls entirely, he tweeted. The inner peace that Jamal found infuriated and enraged the rash and impulsive Mohammed bin Salman. Surrounded by a coterie of aggressive, eager to please loyalists with little experience, his anger reached untold limits. With an almost chronic addiction to social media, the crown prince would scour the virtual newsfeeds daily on his iPad, to examine firsthand the impact of the campaigns engineered by his adviser. With all the resources that eight million barrels of oil a day bring, being unable to stop Khashoggi’s influence was a constant reminder of the limits of authoritarianism against unrestricted freedom. Having publicly humiliated and demoted the strongest royal in the kingdom to become crown prince, MbS had effectively wiped out all opposition within the family. And with a list of disgruntled Saudi royals courtesy of Jared Kushner, he was able to target every one of them, removing them from public posts, scaring them into fleeing or imprisoning them in what was the greatest protection racket in history. Members of MbS’s personal elite squad – Al-Ajrab Sword Brigade – began working with colleagues from the General Intelligence service and forensic experts to plan their move. As soon as reports came from the consulate in Turkey that he had come in to ask for divorce papers, Riyadh set things in motion. He was told to come back after a week in which all logistics were planned out and overseen by MbS and his advisers. Alive or dead, finishing within an hour was imperative.

Did Saudis, CIA Fear Khashoggi 9/11 Bombshell? — The macabre case of missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi raises the question: did Saudi rulers fear him revealing highly damaging information on their secret dealings? In particular, possible involvement in the 9/11 terror attacks on New York in 2001. Even more intriguing are US media reports now emerging that American intelligence had snooped on and were aware of Saudi officials making plans to capture Khashoggi prior to his apparent disappearance at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last week. If the Americans knew the journalist’s life was in danger, why didn’t they tip him off to avoid his doom? Jamal Khashoggi (59) had gone rogue, from the Saudi elite’s point of view. Formerly a senior editor in Saudi state media and an advisor to the royal court, he was imminently connected and versed in House of Saud affairs. Khashoggi’s articles appeared to be taking on increasingly critical tone against the heir to the Saudi throne, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The 33-year-old Crown Prince, or MbS as he’s known, is de facto ruler of the oil-rich kingdom, in place of his aging father, King Salman.While Western media and several leaders, such as Presidents Trump and Macron, have been indulging MbS as “a reformer”, Khashoggi was spoiling this Saudi public relations effort by criticizing the war in Yemen, the blockade on Qatar and the crackdown on Saudi critics back home. However, what may have caused the Saudi royals more concern was what Khashoggi knew about darker, dirtier matters. And not just the Saudis, but American deep state actors as as well. He was formerly a media aide to Prince Turki al Faisal, who is an eminence gris figure in Saudi intelligence, with its systematic relations to American and British counterparts. Prince Turki’s father, Faisal, was formerly the king of Saudi Arabia until his assassination in 1975 by a family rival. For nearly 23 years, from 1977 to 2001, Prince Turki was the director of the Mukhabarat, the Saudi state intelligence apparatus. He was instrumental in Saudi, American and British organization of the mujahideen fighters in Afghanistan to combat Soviet forces. Those militants in Afghanistan later evolved into the al Qaeda terror network, which has served as a cat’s paw in various US proxy wars across the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, including Russia’s backyard in the Caucasus. Ten days before the 9/11 terror attacks on New York City, in which some 3,000 Americans died, Prince Turki retired from his post as head of Saudi intelligence. It was an abrupt departure, well before his tenure was due to expire. There has previously been speculationin US media that this senior Saudi figure knew in advance that something major was going down on 9/11. At least 15 of the 19 Arabs who allegedly hijacked three commercial airplanes that day were Saudi nationals.

UK minister pulls out of Saudi summit — The UK’s International Trade Secretary Liam Fox has pulled out of attending an investment conference in Saudi Arabia next week.It comes amid allegations the country was behind the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.Mr Khashoggi has not been seen since entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on 2 October, where Turkish officials allege he was killed.Saudi Arabia, which denies the killing, allowed investigators inside overnight.The Dutch and French finance ministers, as well as several other politicians and business leaders, have said they are pulling out of the event. However, a number of major businesses – including Goldman Sachs, Pepsi and EDF – are still intending to go despite growing pressure for a boycott.A spokesman for Dr Fox said “the time is not right for him to attend” the conference in Riyadh.”The UK remains very concerned about Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance… those bearing responsibility for his disappearance must be held to account.”On Thursday, the Washington Post published Mr Khashoggi’s last column – a call for press freedom across the Arab world.The newspaper said the column had been submitted by Mr Khashoggi’s translator the day after he was reported missing.It had initially held off from publishing the column, but decided to go ahead after accepting Mr Khashoggi was not going to return safely.

Why pressure on Saudi Arabia could ‘escalate quickly’, and bring pain for everyone else — With Saudi Arabia denying a role in the sudden disappearance of a prominent journalist – and vowing to push back against any effort at international retribution – the chances are growing that the crisis could escalate, and ricochet across the global economy. On Sunday, the world reacted to last week’s vanishing of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and critic of the Saudi Government. The West has threatened consequences for the kingdom, which is suspected of having captured the journalist at a Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The governments of the United Kingdom, France and Germany on Sunday called for a “credible investigation to establish the truth about what happened, and – if relevant – to identify those bearing responsibility for the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, and ensure that they are held to account.” Although Saudi Arabia has fiercely denied any involvement, reports suggest Riyadh may been behind Khashoggi’s disappearance, with Turkey airing suspicions that the journalist may have been killed by Saudi operatives. For the moment, the suspicions alone have imperiled Saudi Arabia’s carefully crafted plans to reform its economy and burnish its image abroad. Meanwhile, the reformist image cultivated by Crown PrinceMohammed bin Salman (MBS) is also in jeopardy.”Right now, this episode is eroding all the good will and trust built up by MBS,” said Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a national security think tank. He called for caution in the face of a lack of actionable evidence against Saudi Arabia, and cast doubt on intelligence and reporting from Turkey that implicated Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia could hike oil prices over the Khashoggi case. Here’s why it would backfire — Fears are spreading that Saudi Arabia, in retaliation against the growing global outcry caused by the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, may hit back at potential economic sanctions byweaponizing its oil dominance.Saudi Arabia’s not-so-veiled threat issued in a government statement Sunday emphasized its “vital role in the global economy” and that any action taken upon it will be met with “greater action”. But as oil ticks upward, a look at history and geopolitics suggests that while a Saudi-driven oil price spike would bring pain for much of the world, it would ultimately backfire on itself.”If this is something the Saudis were allowed to do, they’d be really shooting themselves in the foot,” Warren Patterson, commodities analyst at ING, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Tuesday. “In the short to medium term we’ll definitely see an incremental amount of demand destruction, but the bigger issue is in the longer term.” Any action in withholding oil from the market, he said, “would only quicken the pace of energy transition.” The crisis began after Turkish officials alleged that Khashoggi, a U.S. resident and Washington Post contributor, was murdered on orders of the Saudi government after he was last seen entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2. The Saudis have fiercely denied this claim, but have so far provided no evidence to the contrary, sparking furor in Congress, where momentum is building to impose sanctions on weapons imports to the kingdom. Media companies and corporate executives are pulling out of Saudi Arabia’s annual investment conference, scheduled for late October, in droves.

Global Boycott Of Saudi Investment Summit Accelerates After Journalist’s Disappearance – What the mass slaughter of civilians and even bombing a school bus full of children in Yemen couldn’t do, the murder of one of their own did: a growing list of major media companies have declared they are pulling out of a high profile investment summit in Riyadh set to start on October 23rd over the alleged Saudi state murder of Washington Post columnist and Saudi “insider” critic Jamal Khashoggi. So far the list of media sponsors declaring their withdrawal from the Saudi-hosted Future Investment Initiative (FII) event include the Financial Times, Bloomberg, CNN and CNBC, as well as president of the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim, who indicated on Friday he would not be attending, according to The Guardian. Notably the event has been described as largely the brainchild of the kingdom’s de facto ruler, crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is trying to draw international investments for his much-hyped and ambitious Vision 2030 project. But as of late Friday a burgeoning list of key names who say they will shun the summit are as follows: Arianna Huffington, Patrick Soon-Shiong (LA Times owner), CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin, Bob Bakish (Viacom chief executive), Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber’s chief executive), and the Economist’s editor-in-chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes, among others.

Ban Saudi Oil – Ilargi – According to Middle East Eye, Richard Branson, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Economist editor-In-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes, World Bank president Jim Yong Kim, New York Times, Financial Times, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshah, Viacom CEO Bob Bakish and AOL founder Steve Case have all withdrawn from Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative conference, to be held this month in Riyadh. Branson also put a $1 billion investment plan on hold.Also, on Wednesday, former US energy secretary Ernest Moniz said that he had suspended his role on the board of Saudi Arabia’s planned mega business zone NEOM, to which he was named on Tuesday. The Harbour Group, a Washington firm that has been advising Saudi Arabia since April 2017, ended its $80,000 a month contract on Thursday. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is still scheduled to speak at the conference, as is Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga, but they won’t risk the damage to their reputations. All this is due, obviously, to the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, a former close aquaintance of the Saud family, who moved to the US and wrote for the Washington Post (how’s Amazon’s Saudi business, Jeff Bezos?) after falling out with the House of Saud. As the what someone actually labeled “unfolding diplomatic crisis” takes shape, there is really only one thing to say about these people and organizations: they are the worst group of hypocrites ever. And their reasons to boycott the conference must be questioned.Because before Khashoggi vanished they all apparently though it was quite okay to go feed at the Saud trough, despite the still ongoing slaughter of millions of people in the ‘war’ in Yemen. Which makes one suspect it’s not so much about their principles but about their public image. Donald Trump said he won’t stop weapons sales to the Saudi’s because they would just buy their arms from someone else, like Russia (it would be interesting to get Putin’s view on Khashoggi). And while Trump is completely wrong here, at least he’s not hypocritical about it. Not selling guns and tanks is by no means the most forceful action vs MBS and his dad, and not just because they can buy them elsewhere. What’s much stronger as a protest against what apparently happened to Khashoggi is to hit the Sauds where it hurts: in their wallet. That wallet is being filled by the sale of oil.Simply stop buying their oil. Tell Shell and Exxon and BP and Total to get the hell out of the country. It’s just that to top off the hypocrisy, the best -only?- replacement for Saudi oil is Russian oil, and the US and Europe are engaged in a long drawn out smear campaign to isolate Russia from their world order.

Khashoggi misinformation highlights a growing number of fake fact-checkers – Days after the reported murder of Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, misinformation has ballooned.Saudi media outlets reported a conspiracy theory that Khashoggi’s fiancée is fake in an apparent effort to discredit Turkish and American intelligence. Reuters fell for a fake news story about the firing of a Saudi general consul. Some accounts are promoting a nonsensical video from a guy who wears a strainer on his head. And the Saudi government itself has threatened anyone who spreads “fake news” online with lengthy prison terms and heavy fines.But perhaps the most illuminating bit of misinformation about the situation was a bogus Saudi fact-checking account.Called Middle East Guardians, the fake outlet – whose Twitter account had only existed since September – built on prior media reports and published a photo that it claimed had been altered to add in Khashoggi’s Turkish fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, after the fact. BuzzFeed News reported that, since Cengiz told the media she waited outside the Saudi Consulate for hours and Khashoggi never returned, she’s become a target for people claiming the whole incident is a smokescreen to make Saudi Arabia look bad. A photo forensics expert analyzed Middle East Guardians’ work and concluded it was bogus and Twitter later suspended the account. Aside from the elements of classic, breaking news-related misinformation, the entire debacle is a good example of how misinformers are increasingly posing as fact-checkers to dupe online audiences.

Killing Jamal Khashoggi Was Easy. Explaining It Is Much Harder Philip Giraldi – Getting to the bottom of the Jamal Khashoggi disappearance is a bit like peeling an onion. It is known that Khashoggi entered the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul on October 2nd to get a document that would enable him to marry a Turkish woman. It is also known, from surveillance cameras situated outside the building, that he never came out walking the same way he entered. The supposition is that the fifteen men, which may have included some members of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s bodyguard as well as a physician skilled in autopsies who was carrying a bone saw, constituted the execution party for Khashoggi. There are certain things that should be observed about the Turks, since they are the ones claiming that the disappearance of Khashoggi may have included a summary execution and dismemberment. The Turkish intelligence service, known by its acronym MIT, is very good, very active and very focused on monitoring the activities of foreign embassies and their employees throughout Turkey. They use electronic surveillance and, if the foreign mission has local employees, many of those individuals will be agents reporting to the Turkish government. In my own experience when I was in Istanbul, I had microphones concealed in various places in my residence and both my office and home phones were tapped. A number of local hire consulate employees were believed to be informants for MIT but they were not allowed anywhere near sensitive information. As Turkey and Saudi Arabia might be termed rivals if not something stronger, it is to be presumed that MIT had the Consulate General building covered with both cameras and microphones, possibly inside the building as well as outside, and may have had a Turkish employer inside who observed some of what was going on. Which is to say that the Turks certainly know exactly what occurred but are playing their cards closely to see what they can derive from that knowledge. The two countries have already initiated a joint investigation into what took place. Turkey’s economy is in free fall and would benefit from “investment” from the Saudis to create an incentive to close the book on Khashoggi. In other words, Turkey’s perspective on the disappearance could easily be influenced by Saudi money and the investigation might well turn up nothing that is definitive.

Audio Offers Gruesome Details of Jamal Khashoggi Killing, Turkish Official Says – NYT – Saudi agents were waiting when Jamal Khashoggi walked into their country’s consulate in Istanbul two weeks ago. Mr. Khashoggi was dead within minutes, beheaded, dismembered, his fingers severed, and within two hours the killers were gone, according to details from audio recordings described by a senior Turkish official on Wednesday.The government of Turkey let out these and other leaks about the recordings on Wednesday, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Ankara, in an escalation of pressure on both Saudi Arabia and the United States for answers about Mr. Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi dissident journalist who lived in Virginia and wrote for The Washington Post.The new leaks, which were also splashed in lurid detail across a pro-government newspaper, came a day after Mr. Pompeo and the Trump administration had appeared to accept at face value the promises of the Saudi rulers to conduct their own investigation into Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance – regardless of Turkish assertions that senior figures in the royal court had ordered his killing.As the Saudis and the Americans tried to put the crisis behind them, the brutality described in the leaks served as a reminder of why Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance has triggered an international backlash more severe than countless mass killings or rights violations. Mr. Trump, for his part, pushed back by questioning the Turkish claims, telling reporters on Wednesday that the United States had asked for copies of any audio or video evidence of Mr. Khashoggi’s killing that Turkish authorities may possess – “if it exists.” “I’m not sure yet that it exists, probably does, possibly does,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, adding: “I’ll have a full report on that” when Mr. Pompeo returned. “That’s going to be the first question I ask.”

‘Sawed while still alive’? Gruesome ‘taped’ details of Khashoggi’s alleged murder cause media stir – After a Turkish daily said it obtained a recording from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul related to journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a London-based outlet published an ultra-graphic description of his alleged murder and dismemberment. A three-minute audio recording of Khashoggi’s said to reveal what happened to him at the Saudi consulate has been leaked to the Turkish daily Sabah, but the paper has yet to release it. It is said to have been recorded by the journalist’s Apple Watch. But the London-based Middle East Eye claims to know what’s on the tape citing a source. It alleges the journalist was dragged into a study, where he was dismembered with a bone saw while he was still alive. The source also cites alleged witnesses hearing harrowing screams which only stopped, according to the claims, when the journalist was drugged with an unknown substance. Salah Muhammad al-Tubaigy, the head of forensic evidence in the Saudi general security department, was singled out, as he can reportedly be heard in the recording urging his colleagues to listen to music while dismembering Khashoggi’s body with a bone saw.

Suspected member of Khashoggi ‘hit-team’ dies in mysterious ‘traffic accident’ in Saudi Arabia — A member of the 15-man team suspected in the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi has died in an accident back in Saudi Arabia, according to Turkish media, prompting suspicion of a cover up. Meshal Saad al-Bostani, a 31-year-old lieutenant in the Saudi Royal Air Force, is believed to have died in a ‘suspicious car accident’ in the Saudi capital Riyadh, sources told the Turkish Yeni Safak – the one that earlier covered the shocking details of the murder. A still taken from a Turkish police CCTV video, released by the Sabah newspaper, identified Bostani as he passed through Istanbul’s Ataturk airport on October 2.He, along 14 other Saudi citizens allegedly arrived and left Turkey on the same day and are alleged by Turkish police to have tortured and murdered Khashoggi after he entered the Saudi consulate.The unconfirmed death of Bostani has already prompted accusations on social media that a cover up was underway by those who orchestrated Khashoggi’s disappearance.In the Name of Allah, I posted about 2 days ago that members of that hit team would soon be killed. –They need to go to the Turkish consulate, local news media INTERPOL for safety (Then tell the truth about Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman plot) – Muhammad (@jamiat33) October 18, 2018 Saudi Arabia isn’t safe for anyone, not even their own citizens. I urge everyone to leave the country.

The greatest embarrassment’: Inside the kingdom, Saudis rattled by handling of Jamal Khashoggi case The dissident Saudi journalist who disappeared after entering his nation’s consulate in Istanbul may have run afoul of the Saudi leadership over family business dealings rather than his public criticism of the kingdom, sources have told The Independent.Jamal Khashoggi, scion of a powerful Saudi family, was caught up in the paranoid machinations of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, in his zeal to consolidate his power, eliminate rival royals, and seize the assets of his country’s billionaires to finance his ambitious vision for the kingdom, according to two sources.“It was decided that Jamal no longer had protection,” said one source, a businessperson based abroad who said he was told by a senior Saudi royal family member that the prince wanted to question Mr Khashoggi over whether he was collaborating with powerful royal factions seeking to weaken his rule. “There is no middle ground in the court now. You are either friend or enemy. For Jamal, he got caught in the middle.” A US-based analyst with extensive ties to the kingdom cited Saudi sources as saying that Mr Khashoggi’s disappearance was rooted not in what he had written or nuanced public criticism of the Saudi leadership but in his proximity to power. “It was not about his position as a journalist and what he was saying, but his position in broader Saudi society,” the analyst said, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to continue being able to travel to Saudi Arabia. The global uproar over the alleged Saudi operation against Mr Khashoggi has rattled the kingdom, insiders say, spurring talk of a leadership crisis within the upper echelons of power. Saudi authorities have denied involvement in any attempt to harm Mr Khashoggi, and many Saudis say they feel besieged, with both supporters and critics of the royal family suddenly fearful for the future and reputation of the kingdom.

Killing Jamal Khashoggi Was A Saudi Warning Shot – Long before Jamal Khashoggi disappeared, Saudi Arabia had a history of cracking down on dissidents. Little tolerance exists inside the kingdom for activism and dissent. Even abroad, critics have not been safe: Saudi princes critical of the regime have gone missing while living in Europe.But Khashoggi was not an ordinary dissident. He had started an advocacy group called Democracy for the Arab World Now, which aimed to bring together reformer intellectuals and political Islamists in pursuit of building democracy in the Arab world. Khashoggi also had links to Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational Islamist movement that has had tremendous influence in the region but one that Saudi Arabia regards as a regional threat and terrorist organization. His political engagement had become especially alarming for Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, given Khashoggi’s once very close relations to the royal family and his in-depth knowledge of issues and networks within the kingdom. Khashoggi had become a “dissident” only recently, but he did so with a level of ambition that triggered Mohammed bin Salman insecurity. The crown prince, known as MBS, tried and failed to bring Khashoggi back to Saudi Arabia from the U.S. Khashoggi expressed his distrust of the Saudi authorities, and continued his activism. Khashoggi had become a ‘dissident’ only recently, but he did so with a level of ambition that triggered Mohammed bin Salman’s insecurity.So the crown prince, it seems, had him tortured and killed. The message was clear: Anyone who challenges the Saudi regime and tries to create alternatives to the current Saudi rule will be punished in the harshest way possible. It is a stark warning to dissident members of the Saudi diaspora and their supporters. Given the backlash from the business world ― which probably will intensify as gruesome details of the violence inflicted on Khashoggi trickle to the press ― MBS will likely be more cautious, at least in short-term. In long term, though, businesses and policymakers will need to signal consistently ― in public and in private ― that, despite the potential damage that sanctions on Saudi Arabia might do to the global economy, there are values that the international community is not ready to sacrifice. The challenge for the international community is to decide what those values are.” Indeed.

Saudi Journalist’s Disappearance Reshapes Mideast Power Balance – Just over two weeks since the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the kingdom’s Istanbul consulate, the fallout is threatening to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East and impair U.S. leverage in the region. Turkish officials say Mr. Khashoggi was killed and dismembered inside the consulate shortly after he entered on Oct. 2, stirring global revulsion and widespread condemnation of Saudi Arabia. The Saudis said the journalist left the compound unharmed the same day, but provided no evidence. The biggest geopolitical danger so far has been to the stability of the strategic alliance between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Trump administration officials have been careful to stress the importance of ties in recent days, but any lasting damage would be a serious setback for Saudi plans to lead the Middle East, and for U.S.-Saudi efforts to contain Iran. Israel’s strategic interests – such as weakening Iran – would also be under threat. The main winner appears to be Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has seized the moment to improve relations with Washington at a critical juncture, burnish his country’s international image – and challenge Saudi regional aspirations. Turkey “is the only country that can lead the Muslim world,” he declared this week. Iran, meanwhile, had the luxury of sitting back and enjoying how its main adversary appeared to sabotage itself just as international criticism has mounted over civilian casualties in the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen. “Saudi Arabia is now on the back foot. The brewing criticism over Yemen has exploded with the Khashoggi tragedy,” “Riyadh now has to spend capital to recover from these crises instead of pursuing other goals, domestic and regional.” President Trump has stopped short of blaming the Saudis for Mr. Khashoggi’s death until an investigation is completed, and repeatedly highlighted the importance of U.S. weapons sales to the kingdom. Even if the weapons contracts survive the controversy, the image of Saudi Arabia and especially of its young crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has taken a hit in Washington that could be irreparable.

Saudi regime admits Khashoggi was killed in its Istanbul consulate –The Saudi Arabian monarchial regime finally admitted late Friday that dissident Saudi journalist and Washington Post correspondent Jamal Khashoggi was killed on October 2 inside its consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. The acknowledgment comes after more than two weeks in which Saudi officials insisted that Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed and that they had no knowledge of his whereabouts.The admission that Khashoggi was in fact killed was presented by the country’s chief public prosecutor in a statement delivered on national television. It was made in the face of detailed reports by Turkish investigators that a 15-man team of Saudi intelligence agents, with close ties to the heir to the throne and de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was flown into Istanbul to assassinate Khashoggi. The journalist was viewed with hostility by the Saudi regime because of his criticisms of the crown prince and the murderous US-backed war being waged by Saudi Arabia in Yemen.Khashoggi had visited the consulate on September 28 to finalise divorce proceedings from his Saudi wife so he could marry his Turkish fiancée. He returned on October 2 to pick up documents.Turkish officials say that audio and video recordings in their possession show that the journalist was seized by the hit squad and brutally tortured and murdered, after which his body was dismembered and taken out of the building in suitcases by the Saudi operatives. The remains may have been flown to Saudi Arabia, though Turkish police have been conducting searches in forested areas on the outskirts of Istanbul. The alternative version of events advanced by the Saudi regime is a fantastic and brazen attempt to substantiate its absurd claim, echoed by the Trump administration, that “rogue killers” carried out the murder without the knowledge of the crown prince or other key figures in the Saudi ruling elite. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held meetings with Saudi King Salman and the crown prince on Tuesday, during which they agreed that an “accounting” of what had happened to Khashoggi would be presented.

Saudi Arabia fires 5 top officials, arrests 18 Saudis, saying Khashoggi was killed in fight at consulate – The Saudi government acknowledged early Saturday that journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, saying he died during a fistfight, but the new account may do little to ease international demands for the kingdom to be held accountable. The announcement, which came in a tweet from the Saudi Foreign Ministry, said that an initial investigation by the government’s general prosecutor found that the Saudi journalist had been in discussions with people inside the consulate when a quarrel broke out and escalated to a fatal fistfight. The Saudi government said it fired five top officials and arrested 18 other Saudis as a result of the initial investigation. Those fired included Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s adviser Saud al-Qahtani and deputy intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri. The announcement marks the first time that Saudi officials have acknowledged that Khashoggi was killed inside the consulate. Ever since he disappeared on Oct. 2 while visiting the mission, Saudi officials have repeatedly said that he left the consulate alive and that they had no information on his whereabouts or fate. He had gone to the consulate to obtain a document he needed for his upcoming marriage.

Saudi Royal Family Considering Replacement For Crown Prince bin Salman- Report – The major French daily Le Figaro on Thursday published a bombshell story which reports the Saudi royal family is actively considering a replacement to crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) as next in line to succeed his father King Salman as the kingdom finds itself under the greatest international pressure and scrutiny it’s faced in its modern history over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi – widely believed to have been killed on orders of MbS himself. The Li Figaro report’s unnamed diplomatic source says the Allegiance Council, which is historically the body responsible for approving the order of succession to the throne, is currently meeting in secret (translation from the French): For several days, the Allegiance Council for the ruling Saudi family is meeting in the utmost discretion, says a diplomatic source to Le Figaro in Paris. The information has been confirmed by a Saudi Arabian contacted in Riyadh. Composed of a delegate representing each of the clans – at least seven – of the royal family, this body, responsible for inheritance problems, examines the situation created by the disappearance, still unresolved, more than a fortnight ago, of the journalist dissident Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The report in France’s oldest top three national newspapers further suggests the ruling family is seeking to replace the 33-year old MbS with his much less ambitious and more predictable brother, Prince Khalid bin Salman.

New Saudi airstrike hits bus carrying civilians in Yemen – At least 17 people were killed and 20 injured in a Saudi-led airstrike on Yemen’s Hodeida on Saturday. The attack presumably targeted a Houthi rebel checkpoint in the city’s Jebel Ras area, but instead destroyed a bus full of civilians, medical sources said. Other reports said another bus was also hit during the bombing.”The final toll is not determined yet because body parts of many victims are mixed with each other,” said spokesman for the rebel-controlled Health Ministry Youssef al-Hadari.Many of the wounded were reported to be in critical condition. Witnesses cited by the DPA news agency said that the victims were attempting to flee the fighting in the port city, where the forces allied with the Saudi coalition have been trying to dislodge the rebels since June. Hodeida plays a key role for supplying food to Yemen civilians, as 80 percent of all imports and aid enter the country through its port.A coalition spokesman said that the Saudi-led forces would probe the incident. A similar Saudi-led airstrike in August killed 51 people, including 40 children who were taking a bus for a school trip. The attack triggered global outrage and accusations of a war crime. While Riyadh eventually acknowledged “mistakes” over the attack, coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki later denied it was a war crime and disputed numerous sources who stated the victims were children.

Yemen could be ‘worst famine in 100 years’ – BBC – The United Nations is warning that 13 million people in Yemen are facing starvation. It’s calling on the military coalition, led by Saudi Arabia, to halt air strikes which are killing civilians, and contributing to what the UN says could become “the worst famine in the world in 100 years”. Yemen’s civil war began three years ago, when Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, seized much of the country, including the capital Sanaa. Saudi Arabia, backed by the US, the UK and France, is using air strikes and a blockade – in support of the internationally-recognised government. At least 10,000 people have been killed in the conflict and millions are displaced. Our international correspondent Orla Guerin, producer Nicola Careem and cameraman Lee Durant sent this report from Sanaa. It contains some distressing scenes.

After UAE ‘Murder Squad’ Revelations, How Many More Private US Hit Teams Are Under Gulf Regimes- “There was a targeted assassination program in Yemen. I was running it. We did it” – confessed Hungarian Israeli security contractor Abraham Golan who heads the Delaware-based military contractor Spear Operations Group to BuzzFeed News as part of a lengthy new tell-all exposing an outrageous story of US covert ops gone wild. Except the bombshell report is not exactly about covert ops, but about the even less regulated underbelly and shady world of American special forces and intelligence operatives going “free agent” and contracted by uber-wealthy American Gulf allies who are building their own private armies to operate off the books assassination teams. “The revelations that a Middle East monarchy hired Americans to carry out assassinations comes at a moment when the world is focused on the alleged murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi Arabia.” – BuzzFeedNow that the world is finally waking up to the truly ruthless and murderous machinations of America’s favorite “oil and gas” Gulf autocratic sheikdoms, especially in light of the newly emerged grisly details of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s death and dismemberment by a Saudi assassination squad, we must ask: are the new BuzzFeed UAE ‘kill team’ revelations but the tip of the iceberg? Surely there are more such ex-Special Forces groups flush with Gulf cash and patronage out there with a license to kill? The stunning details of the BuzzFeed investigation suggest so – this may not be an uncommon phenomenon. EXCLUSIVE: The United Arab Emirates has hired US ex-special ops soldiers to carry out targeted killings in war-torn Yemen https://t.co/rb6o8coP6S Green Beret, Navy SEAL, and CIA paramilitary veterans were hired under the aegis of Spear Operations Group to become what BuzzFeed describes as the private “murder squad” for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ). Starting in 2015 the UAE sent a group of about a dozen mostly American private contractors to Yemen to conduct targeted killings of prominent clerics and political figures who had run afoul crown prince MBZ in the war-torn country, where the Emirati military has played a lead role in the ongoing Saudi coalition bombing campaign.

As Assad recovers, Syria is returning to stability — I escaped late last month to Syria, where children were returning to school after the summer holidays. Large tracts of the country have recently been liberated from the control of jihadi groups, meaning that in some places children are going back to school for the first time in five years. At Sinjar elementary school in Idlib province, I found the local headmaster painting the school sign. Five years ago rebels gave him the choice of closing down or being killed. He was confined to his house while the school buildings were converted into an arsenal. He took me into a room where an alert, motivated, mixed class of about 25 children spoke of their dreams of becoming doctors, engineers and teachers. Just 150 yards away, the jihadi emir, known as Al Yemeni, had forced people to watch public beheadings. Locals said there had been 80 beheadings during half a decade of jihadi rule. Schooling did not cease in all rebel areas. A 35-year-old headmistress in the south Damascus suburb of Douma told me her school had continued to operate under the control of the Saudi-backed rebel group Jaish al-Islam. However her students, girls between 13 and 16 years old, were forced to wear the hijab and banned from clapping their hands and taking public exams. Lessons in music, art and sport were banned. I was supplied with a press minder. Fadi was a travel guide before the war but had to close his business when it started. He went to work in the oilfields in Deir Ezzor, but was kidnapped by Free Syrian Army fighters. They had already beheaded three of his companions when he talked his way out of trouble, claiming a nonexistent acquaintance with a local al Qaeda warlord. Fadi and I went to Mhardeh, a Christian town to the west of Idlib province. A car mechanic told us how his wife and three children had been killed by a rocket attack a few weeks ago. He was broken: ‘I have lost all my feelings.’ Mhardeh is surrounded by rebel villages which have pounded it with artillery fire for five years. The devastation is unbelievable. Think Dresden, Stalingrad. Much worse than the Blitz. Miles of total destruction. In the old city centre of Homs, I find a family living deep among the ruins. They returned two months ago, six years after being driven out by a rebel attack in which their daughter was killed. Kemal, a security guard at the bus station, looked round his tiny home, walls smashed by shells and wide open to the elements, as his wife provided coffee. He said: ‘There is nothing sweeter than my own house. I am the most happy man in the world because I am back home.’

Israel orders immediate halt of fuel deliveries to Gaza – Israel’s Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman has ordered an immediate halt to fuel deliveries headed to the besieged Gaza Strip in response to what he said were attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians, his office announced on Friday. The announcement on Friday follows the killing of six Palestinians by Israeli forces during the ongoing March of Return protests. “Israel will not tolerate a situation in which fuel tankers are allowed to enter Gaza on the one hand, while terror and violence are used against [Israeli] soldiers and Israeli citizens on the other,” the statement from Lieberman’s office read. Qatari-bought fuel began arriving on Tuesday in a bid to alleviate the humanitarian situation in the besieged enclave and prevent any escalation in Israeli-Palestinian violence. “The Qatari fuel to the Gaza strip’s power plant today is aimed at partially improving electricity [supply] in Gaza,” Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said at the time. The fuel deliveries were aimed at easing months of protests along the separation fence east of Gaza, which has been under a crippling Israeli and Egyptian blockade for more than a decade. Last week, Lieberman’s office announced a further reduction to the Gaza’s fishing zone, from nine nautical miles to six. Lieberman said the measure was in response to “riots” along the fence dividing Israel and Gaza and a midweek beach protest in which fishing boats and demonstrators gathered at the northwest end of the Gaza Strip. The United Nations has warned that Israel’s 11-year blockade of the strip has resulted in a “catastrophic” humanitarian situation. Under the UN-brokered deal, Qatar pays for the fuel which is then delivered through Israel with UN monitoring, a diplomatic source said. A Qatari official, speaking to Reuters news agency on Sunday, said Doha planned to help with Gaza’s power crisis “at the request of donor states in the UN, to prevent an escalation of the existing humanitarian disaster”.

Israeli soldiers, bulldozers storm Khan Al-Ahmar – PNN: A large Israeli army force stormed the Khan Al-Ahmar on Monday morning, accompanied by three military bulldozers. The residents of the area and the Popular Resistance committee confronted the raid, during which IOF arrested one of the young men who stood up to the bulldozers of the occupation. The military vehicles of the occupation army were deployed on the main road between Jericho and Jerusalem, where the village is located, and intensified their presence in the area. This morning as well, settlers of Kfar Adumim flooded the village with sewage water. It is noteworthy that the settlers flooded the village’s land a few days ago with sewage as well, which caused great harm to citizens and their livestock.

Israeli forces hold 100 Palestinian athletes inside stadium — Heavily armed Israeli forces held some 100 athletes, on Wednesday evening, at a Palestinian stadium in the al-Khader village in the southern occupied West Bank district of Bethlehem. Locals said that Israeli forces stormed the stadium and banned Palestinian players and administers, including coaches, who represent several sports teams, from leaving the premises after their training session ended. Israeli forces threatened players and administers at gunpoint, searched and interrogated some of the players.

Israel’s 50-Year Time Bomb The Trump White House and the Netanyahu government are fostering an extraordinary time bomb between Israel and Palestine in the name of “peace and progress,” warned a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The report unsurprisingly said that “deepening rifts between key stakeholders and surging violence in Gaza further imperil prospects for peace.” While economic and strategic polarization is steadily deepening between the two sides, the “peace initiatives” of the Trump White House are undermining half a century of American diplomacy and pushing the region closer to an abyss. In the past, the Netanyahu government has vehemently opposed all parallels with South African apartheid. Unfortunately, new data suggests that under apartheid South African blacks had more to hope for than Palestinians today. Last year, Palestinian living standards were about 7.3 percent ($2,494) of the Israeli level ($34,135). After more than two decades of new wars and friction, terrorism and restrictions, the catch-up has amounted to less than a percentage point. Let’s set aside political debates about the causes and only focus on economic facts; i.e., changes in income polarization. And let’s compare the last two decades of apartheid South Africa with the past two decades between Israel and Palestinians. In the mid-70s, black South Africans’ annual per capita income relative to white levels was about 8.6 percent; that is, two percent higher relative to the Palestinian level vis-a-vis the Israelis. As the apartheid came to an end in a series of steps that led to the formation of a democratic government in 1994, black South Africans’ annual per capita income relative to the whites climbed to almost 14 percent whereas the comparable Palestinian level remained only half of that figure last year (Figure b).

All-Out War Coming- Record Number Of Israeli Tanks Amassed On Gaza Border – After months of violence and widespread protests along the Israeli-Gaza border fence, Israeli is quickly ramping up its military presence with a show of force a day after launching deadly airstrikes on Gaza in response to what officials say were two rockets fired from the strip earlier this week. Reuters has reported some 60 Israeli tanks and armored personnel carriers now stationed at a deployment area along the border as of Thursday, which is the largest reported mustering of forces since the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas. Special UN envoy for the Middle East, Nickolay Mladenov, told the UN Security Council on Thursday that “we remain on the brink of another potentially devastating conflict, a conflict that nobody claims to want, but a conflict that needs much more than just words to prevent”.One of the rockets launched Wednesday reportedly landed in the sea, however, Israeli officials said it came dangerously close to densely populated Tel Aviv. Hamas, for its part, denied responsibility for the rocket launches and said it would investigate. Meanwhile Israel retaliated in Wednesday airstrikes on Gaza, which reportedly killed at least one Palestinian while injuring several more. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further convened his security cabinet on the same day of the Gaza rocket launches and promised to take “very strong action” if such attacks continued.