Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 20 July 2016
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
Global
Asia markets lose momentum; Nintendo shares tumble 17 pct (CNBC) Asia markets lost momentum on Wednesday, after a mixed finish in the U.S. as investors digested second-quarter earnings.
Brexit uncertainty prompts IMF to cut global growth forecasts again (Reuters) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for the next two years on Tuesday, citing uncertainty over Britain’s looming exit from the European Union. The move included a nearly full percentage-point reduction in the UK’s 2017 growth forecast. Cutting its World Economic Outlook forecasts for the fifth time in 15 months, the IMF said that it now expects global GDP to grow at 3.1% in 2016 and at 3.4% in 2017 — down 0.1 percentage point for each year from estimates issued in April.
U.S.
GOP nominates Trump for president (The Hill) The Republican Party officially nominated Donald Trump for president on Tuesday, capping his remarkable rise from political outsider to the standard-bearer of the GOP. Trump officially secured the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination after his home state of New York cast 89 delegates for the businessman. Trump’s adult children joined the New York delegation to cast the decisive vote that put Trump over the top. Donald Trump Jr. was given the honor of making the announcement, and he promised his father would put the Empire State in play in November.
The Republicans’ Economy Night Turns Out to Be Another Lock Up Hillary Night (NY Magazine) Amidst the conversion of former opponents who were not gentile in their criticism of their now nominated candidate for president, is a persistent message that Hillary Clinton is a “felon”, a “traitor” or both. Econintersect: This is thrilling the Trump base but will it ultimately hurt with more swing voters than it will win?
Kotlikoff: America “Dead Broke” – $199 Trillion in the Red (Financial Sense) Econintersect: Prof Lawrence Kotlikoff is incredibly talented with numbers. But when it comes to understanding fiat monetary systems, not so much. There is no reason other than political choice that taxes are needed to fund Social Security under monetary systems structured as they are in the U.S. And there is no reason that deficits to fund Social Security must be funded by debt, other than political choice. Prof. Kotlikoff is making a political argument with no economic basis, unless invalid assumptions are made.
Pre-Snowden Whistleblower Explains How NSA Got ‘Unleashed’ To Spy On Everyone (Motherboard) Thomas Drake was a 48-year-old decorated Air Force and Navy veteran, and a senior executive at the National Security Agency, the NSA, when he decided he had to speak up against what he considered the spy agency’s abuses. That’s when he anonymously contacted a reporter at The Baltimore Sun, helping her expose wrongdoing at the agency in a series of articles. Two years later, the FBI raided his home, and the US government launched an investigation into Drake for leaking classified information and espionage. e barely escaped a 35-year prison term. Below is an exerpt of his interview by HBO‘s Vice:
UK
Will UK Actually Leave the EU? (Walter Kurtz, Sober Look, The Daily Shot) Opinion survey by Bank of America:
Europe’s Impossible Refugee Math: Brexit Was Mathematical Certainty Eventually (Mike Shedlock, Financial Sense) The argument here (summarized from writing by Jeremy Grantham) is that Africa and the Near East have exploding populations and failed states. A large percentage want to emigrate and Europe simply could not absorb perhaps as many as a billion people from the south and east over the 21st century. The EU, with a very little population growth projected, could grow under an open border condition to three times its current 500 + million. The article asserts that Europe could not survive such an onslaught. The further assertion is made that this possibility was the “swing vote” motivation that pushed Brexit over the top.
Turkey
Turkey’s Stocks Take a Hit (Walter Kurtz, Sober Look, The Daily Shot) Monday (18 July), the first trading day after the failed coup attempt, Turkey’s stocks plunged. See also next article.
Turkey stocks lower at close of trade; BIST 100 down 1.01% (Investing.com) Turkey stocks were lower after the close on Tuesday, as losses in the Wholesale & Retail Trade, Electricity and Banking sectors led shares lower. At the close in Istanbul, the BIST 100 fell 1.01%. This brought the two-day loss to more than 8%. The BIST 100 is now up 6.2% YTD 2016, with more than half the year’s gains wiped out in the last two days.
Ukraine
‘Fraud’ Alleged in NYT’s MH-17 Report (Consortium News) Hat tip to Tom Hickey and Roger Erickson. There is still credible doubt that Russian backed rebels shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 on 17 July 2014. There is also credible circumstantial evidence that the culprit might have been in the Ukraine military. This report is by Robert Parry who broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for the Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s.
India
Govt releases Rs 23,000 cr to recapitalise 13 PSU banks (Business Standard) (Econintersect: Short form – India bails out (or subsidizes) private banks.) The government on Tuesday said it is releasing Rs 22,915 crore (U.S. $4.9 billion) to recapitalize 13 public sector banks, including the biggest lender, State Bank of India. The sum is about 92% of the budgeted provision of Rs 25,000 crore. The highest sum of Rs 7,575 crore is being released for SBI, followed by Rs 3,101 crore for Indian Overseas Bank and Rs 2,816 crore for Punjab National Bank, a government statement said on Tuesday. The yardstick for allocation was capital requirements of the banks based on compounded annual growth rate for the last five years, banks’ own projections of credit growth and an objective assessment of the potential for growth of each PSU bank.
China
China’s government spending continues to rise in order to cushion the slowdown in the private sector activity. (Walter Kurtz, Sober Look, The Daily Shot) China has been shoveling fiscal stimulus for more than 18 months now. Econintersect: We make a very rough estimate that if central government spending had remained at 2011 to 2014 levels (20% – 22% of GDP) the GDP would not be 6.7% growth rate but %5 or less.
