Germany’s economy will lose over 260 billion euros ($265 billion) in added value by 2030 because of high energy prices and the Russia Ukraine conflict, spelling negative effects on the labor market, a study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) showed.
Compared with expectations for a peaceful Europe, Germany’s price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will be 1.7% lesser in 2023 and there will be around 240,000 fewer people in employment, said the study issued on Tuesday.
The employment level is estimated to remain at around this level until 2026 when expansive measures will steadily begin to offset the negative effects and result in a plus of around 60,000 gainfully employed in 2030.
One of the major losers will be the hospitality industry, which was already hit severely by the coronavirus pandemic and is likely to be hurt by consumers’ diminishing purchasing power. Energy-intensive sectors, such as metal production and the chemical industry, are also most likely to be hit.
Buy Crypto NowIn case energy prices, which have until now skyrocketed by 160%, were to double again, Germany’s 2023 economic output would be about 4% lower than it would have been without the war, according to the study. Under these assumptions, 660,000 lesser people would be employed after three years and still 60,000 lesser in 2030, it said.
($1 = 0.9809 euros)
