Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 04-22-2014
The averages have continued to melt upwards as volume continues to fall. The $VIX has slipped to the high 12’s and the short sellers numbers have increased which leads me to believe we will soon see some ‘slippage’.
By noon the averages were nicely in the green, the DOW near triple digits and the NASDAQ over +1.0% in gains.
Below is one more metric that leads me to believe Mr. Market is not well and is looking for a rest. Look out for a head and shoulder as I think that is the most logical path for Mr. Market to take.
Below is the current chart for the “core holdings” held by Institutional Investors. Yesterday’s market action showed that the value of the “core holdings” held by Institutional Investors was moving up.
That sounds good, except for the resistance levels coming from the December 31st. and April 4th. highs still have to be penetrated.
Old time technicians are now concerned about the more recent April 4th. high and not the December 31st. high.
Why is that? The reason centers around what happens if the Institutional Index of “core holdings” fails to move past the April 4th. high. If it doesn’t make it past the April 4th. high, then the index could have a Head & Shoulders pattern or a double top with downside implications.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a past 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 24 % sell. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.)
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The DOW at 12:15 is at 16550 up 101 or 0.61%.
The SP500 is at 1883 up 11 or 0.59%.
SPY is at 188.20 up 1.15 or 0.61%.
The $RUT is at 1156 up 14 or 1.23%.
NASDAQ is at 4166 up 45 or 1.08%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3593 up 33 or 0.93%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.96 down 0.29 or -2.19%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 103.56 (resistance) and 101.53 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 101.69.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.99 (resistance) and 108.55 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 108.78.
Gold fell from 1292.68 earlier to 1277.62 and is currently trading up at 1281.00. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.053 rising from 3.025 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.06 and 79.86 and is currently trading up at 79.98, the bias is currently sideways.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary