Market Commentary: Markets Open Up, Flat and Uninspiring

Written by Gary

Opening Market Commentary For 10-24-2013

Premarkets were higher earlier up +.0.30% and dropped 0.10% after the US Markit PMI came in 51.1 falling from 52.8. WTI oil tumbled to 96.02 and gold fell to 1338. To say the US economy is under performing is an understatement in light of recent financial reports.

Markets opened up in the ~+0.20% and quickly started falling to flat and negative on moderate to low volume. By 10 am the averages fell below yesterday’s closing numbers and then recovered to the positive side with the DOW leading the pack. First appearance is that the session is once again going to slide sideways.

Foxnews reports, “The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell last week to 350,000 from an upwardly revised 362,000 the week prior. Economists expected claims to fall to 340,000 from an initially reported 358,000.”

October US Manufacturing Output Tumbles To 2009 Levels

While hardly as followed as the other two key US manufacturing indices, the Mfg ISM and the Chicago PMI, the recently introduced Markit PMI, which comes from the same firm that tracks manufacturing data across the rest of the world, shows that in addition to the sliding job picture in September (and soon October), one other aspect of the US economy that took a big hit in October was manufacturing.

As Markit just reported, “the U.S. manufacturing sector grew at its weakest pace for a year in October… based on approximately 85% of usual monthly survey replies. The flash PMI index registered 51.1, down from 52.8 in September, and was consistent with only a modest rate of expansion.”

Not only was this the lowest headline print in one year, and should the drop continue it would be the worst print since 2009, not only was the New Order index had its weakest number in 6 months, but worst of all, the Output index, plunging from 55.3 to 49.5, had its first contrationary print since 2009!

Indicators on the short side are 50 – 50 with a slight tendency on the sell side. The longer term remains negative. Generally speaking, the markets are untradable at this time.

The DOW at 10:00 is at 15465 up 52 or 0.34%.

The SP500 is at 1748 up 1 or 0.08%.

SPY is at 174.77 up 0.18 or 0.10%.

The $RUT is at 1113 up 2 or 0.17%.

NASDAQ is at 3914 up 7 or 0.18%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3350 up 5 or 0.14%.

The longer trend is up, the past 6 months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 97.68 and 95.97 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 96.20.

Brent Crude is trading between 108.27 and 107.11 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 107.25.

Gold rose from 1334.00 earlier to 1346.78 and is currently trading down at 1342.20.

Here’s why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.254 falling from 3.280 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 79.37 and 79.13 and is currently trading up at 79.29, the bias is currently sideways.

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

[email protected]

Written by Gary