Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting 330,000 to 341,000 vs the 350,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average degraded, moving from 336,500 (reported last week) to 348,250.
This continuing rise this week in the 4 week average was likely caused by the knock-on effect of government shutdown.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons removes this seasonality. The initial claims are 5.6% lower (worse than the 8.2% last week) than they were in this same week in 2012.
The rate of improvement generally is equal to or better than the rate of improvement seen in 2012 (as evidenced on the above chart) – 2013 claim levels are now within the normal range (around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims) of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion (see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending October 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 350,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 362,000. The 4-week moving average was 348,250, an increase of 10,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 337,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent for the week ending October 12, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 12 was 2,874,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 2,882,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,894,750, an increase of 13,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,881,500.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)
