Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 09-20-2013
The premarket was slightly elevated making a lot of investors uneasy because of the closeness of the market tops and indicators pointing towards tough sledding to move further upward.
Markets opened up (+0.35%) and quickly fell to where the averages were bouncing back and forth between red and green on moderate volume, mostly red. By 10 the large caps were in negative territory while the small caps remained flat, but in the green. The DOW has been in the dumps from the get-go, but it difficult determining where Mr. Market will take us today, but my bet is is seeing more melting downward.
First the taper was to begin this month then Bernanke threw a curve ball Wednesday and caught everyone by surprise indicating December was going to be when the ‘taper’ would start. Now we are told to look to next month; seriously, do these guys have any idea of what they are doing?
It seems just as a plethora of Fed heads had to walk back Bernanke’s last press conference hawkishness, that the uber-dovishness interpreted by the market from Wednesday’s FOMC is now being tapered back. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Fed’s Bullard warns an October Taper is on the cards:
*BULLARD SAYS ECONOMY ISN’T THAT FRAGILE
*BULLARD SAYS $10 BILLION TAPER VERSUS NO TAPER NOT ‘BIG THING’
*BULLARD SAYS NO TAPER, SMALL TAPER WAS A ‘BORDERLINE’ CALL
*BULLARD SAYS ‘SMALL TAPER’ POSSIBLE BY FOMC IN OCTOBER
The market (bonds, stocks, and gold) reacted accordingly and is unwinding the exuberance in a hurry. The question now, of course, is what key data is due out that will shift them off the fence.
For traders, clearly good news is now very bad news – especially over the next month.
And for those who care, my ETF short purchased at yesterday’s opening has so far resulted in a +0.57 of a point. Normally I would expect that type of a return during the day, maybe seeing that several times in one session.
Pickings are there if you are lucky, but don’t throw caution to the wind and watch your stops.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15611 down 24 or -0.15%.
The SP500 is at 1721 down 1 or -0.08%.
SPY is at 171.85 down 0.06 or -0.03%.
The $RUT is at 1076 up 0.46 or 0.04%.
NASDAQ is at 3796 up 7 or 0.17%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3246 up 8 or 0.26%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 106.11 and 105.18 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 105.73.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.48 and 109.65 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 109.47.
Gold fell from 1366.62 earlier to 1346.14 and is currently trading down at 1348.00.
Dr. Copper is at 3.325 falling from 3.358 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.40 and 80.63 and is currently trading up at 80.56, the bias is currently sideways.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary