ECRI’s WLI Growth Index improved marginally, and remains positive. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. Both ECRI’s coincident and lagging indices were updated this week and discussed below.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Rises
A measure of future U.S. economic growth hit its highest level in more than three years last week and the annualized growth rate rebounded from a previous 39-week low, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.3 in the week ended Sept. 6, up from 131.5. The reading was the highest since the week ending April 30, 2010.
The index’s annualized growth rate rose to 4.1 percent after dipping to 3.9 percent the prior week, which was the lowest since November 30, 2012.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The September update for August shows the rate of economic growth declined marginally month-to-month – but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
Price Pressures Ease Further
Price pressures remain muted, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
The ECRI U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 100.8 in August from 102.0 in July. The gauge is designed to measure the economy’s underlying price pressures and predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.
“With the USFIG falling for the fourth straight month to a 19-month low, underlying inflation pressures in the U.S. continue to recede,” says Lakshman Achuthan, the head of ECRI.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index. The August economy’s rate of growth continued to degrade.
U.S. Lagging Index