Opening Market Commentary For 06-27-2013
Premarkets were up like yesterday’s (+0.50%) with so-so good financial reports this morning, but the markets were expected to rise today anyway.
Markets did open as expected and started to melt upwards on low volume as they have done in the past 2 sessions, again nothing that wasn’t expected. The averages peaked out about 10 am falling slightly consolidating from the morning gap up from yesterday’s close. If you like gaps you are going to love this market as the previous gaps only point to a bearish outlook.
By 10:30 the straight line accent from Monday is well underway as the averages climb upward.
There will be little to report today as I expect it to mimic the previous several sessions in slowly, methodically melting upwards on low volume. One can also expect action from the HFT computers to be helping out.
Traders are bidding equities sharply higher for the third day in a row as caution over the Federal Reserve’s exit from its bond-buying program ebbs
Consumer spending rose 0.3% in May from April, matching economists’ estimates. Personal income climbed 0.5%, more than the 0.2% Wall Street expected.
U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 346,000 from an upwardly revised 355,00 the week prior. Claims were expected to fall to 345,000 from an initially reported 354,000.
The RRR** was narrow at the opening bell today and it doesn’t look like it is going to expand much in today’s session. This continuing trend of low volume and narrow trading sessions makes predictions of daily session movements nearly impossible, thus making trading futile and unprofitable for day traders.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately but not today.
Correctly ‘guessing’, of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing continually, that there are good setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: At 81% Slips From 93% Last Week and Secondaries Also Slip From Confirm “Tradable” to Negative This might be true, but still above ~60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering ‘not so good’ current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn’t match this bull run.
The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 15039 up 125 or 0.84%.
The SP500 is at 1616 up 13 or 0.82%.
SPY is at 161.46 up 1.33 or 0.84%.
The $RUT is at 973.14 up 9 or 0.97%.
NASDAQ is at 3406 up 30 or 0.91%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2919 up 25 or 0.86%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 3 sessions have been positive and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 95.35 and 96.19 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 96.00.
Brent crude is trading between 101.62 and 102.49 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 102.30.
Gold fell from 1243.78 earlier to 1223.47 and is currently trading down at 1229.55.
Dr. Copper is at 3.056 falling from 3.077 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.01 and 83.35 and is currently trading up at 83.33, the bias is currently bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary