Opening Market Commentary For 03-28-2013
Premarkets were up very slightly (+0.10), Cyprus was quiet and the last day of the week appears to be a subdued one. As one analysts put it, “Yes, if you’re reading this you are likely an addict. With the market closed tomorrow, it’s not likely to do anything today. You really don’t need to be here.”
The markets did open with surprising moderate volume while the SP500 set a new high (+1.02). The averages quickly melted into the red and just as quickly melted back up to where the averages were mixed and flat.
By 10 am the major indices were trading in a narrow range, generally back and forth between the green and red sides, with falling volume of course. I suspect by noon 98% of Wall Street will be on the trains headed to the ‘burbs’ and I too may join them and have one of our Econintersect interns make the 4 pm post.
The financial news this morning is so-so and didn’t move the markets.
The Labor Department reports new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 357,000 last week from 341,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to increase to 340,000.
A final reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter, up from an initial estimate of 0.1% growth, but below the 0.5% expected.
Stiff capital controls announced Wednesday designed to cut off the flow of money were in place as Cypriot banks reopened this morning.
Banks have been shut for nearly two weeks as the government negotiated a bailout package with the EU and became the first eurozone country to impose losses on bank depositors. Cash withdrawals are limited to €300 per day, time deposits cannot be withdrawn until maturity, and check-cashing is banned.
Additionally, anyone leaving the country may take only €1K euros with them, down from €3K in an early draft of the restriction.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and has continued the trend again today. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14549 up 22 or 0.15%.
The SP500 is at 1563 up 0.46 or 0.03%.
SPY is at 156.10 down 0.10 or -0.06%.
The $RUT is at 949.50 down 0.72 or -0.08%.
NASDAQ is at 3256 down 2 or -0.05%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been neutral and the current bias is neutral with a bearish slant.
WTI oil is trading between 95.50 and 96.90 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading up at 96.65.
Brent crude is trading between 109.88 and 108.70 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 109.07.
Gold fell from 1606.90 earlier to 1695.10 and is currently trading down at 1597.25.
Dr. Copper is at 3.44 down from 3.46 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.46 and 83.14 and is currently trading down at 83.16, the bias is currently bearish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary