Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Shows Moderate Growth November 2012

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region advanced moderately in November following a slight pullback in October, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. All broad indicators — shipments, new orders and employment — landed in positive territory. Other indicators were mixed, however. Capacity utilization was virtually unchanged, while backlogs fell further from its October reading. Moreover, the gauge for delivery times steadied, while finished goods inventories grew at a slightly quicker pace and growth in raw materials edged lower.

Looking ahead, assessments of business prospects for the next six months were more optimistic in November. Contacts at more firms anticipated that shipments, new orders, backlogs, vendor lead-times and capital expenditures will grow more quickly than anticipated a month ago.

Survey assessments of current prices revealed that growth in both raw materials and finished goods prices grew at a somewhat slower rate than a month ago. Over the next six months, respondents expected growth in both raw materials and finished goods prices at a slightly slower pace than they had anticipated a month earlier.

Current Activity

In November, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — gained sixteen points to 9 from October’s reading of −7. Among the index’s components, shipments rose twenty points to 11, new orders moved up seventeen points to finish at 11, and the jobs index increased eight points to 3.

Other indicators varied. The index for capacity utilization changed little, adding one point to −3, and the backlogs of orders declined six points to end at −9. In contrast, the delivery times index rose two points to 0, while our gauges for inventories were mixed in November. The raw materials inventory index eased two points to finish at 21, while the finished goods index gained four points to 19.

Read entire source document from Richmond Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)

Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Empire State Survey (green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data

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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.