Economic indicators that coincide with economic movements are coincident indicators. Coincident indicators by definition do not provide a forward economic view.
Excerpt from Philly Fed Report
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2012. In the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in five states, and remained stable in six states, for a one-month diffusion index of 68. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 37 states, decreased in 11 states, and remained stable in two states, for a three-month diffusion index of 52. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index rose 0.2 percent in September and 0.6 percent over the past three months.
For Comparison – Conference Board’s Coincident Index (red line):
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For Comparison – ECRI’s USCI (U.S. Coincident Index)
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For Comparison – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
