Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 2.3 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 1.3 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 10.8 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are at an elevated 154,893
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths today is an elevated 1,204
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at a record 91,635
- The 7-day rolling average rate of Growth of the Pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations improved, and deaths improved [note that there is usually under-reporting over holiday periods and over-reporting for days after so I would wait to mid-week to validate there was an improvement]
- UK to approve Pfizer and BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine next week
- Pfizer COVID Vaccine Flown Into U.S. Ahead of Planned Rollout
- White House testing czar promotes mask-wearing, social distancing: ‘Testing alone will never solve this issue’
- After beating back the virus, officials in East Asia are forced to recalibrate their responses
- The pandemic has made the already difficult college application process that much harder
- Vaccines Could Be Forced Upon People Under Current Law, Warns FL Lawmaker
- Congress Has Just 14 Days To Work Out COVID Stimulus Package This Year
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, possible mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, political rallies / voting, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line) For Week ending 14NOV2020
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Seven Day Rolling Average Rate of growth of pandemic new cases improved, hospitalizations improved, and deaths improved
Too many headlines are telling you the pandemic is out of control. Anyone with analytical abilities knows this is not true. For this to be true, the rate of growth needs to continue to rise.
No doubt, the pandemic is elevated and we must take steps to minimize our exposure to the virus.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked over one month ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating.
This graph demonstrates that the recent actions to contain the pandemic are beginning to bite. In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Today, Econintersect published two summary articles of coronavirus news for the past week:
UK to approve Pfizer and BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine next week: report – The Hill
The U.K. is set to approve Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine as early as next week, according to a report from the Financial Times on Saturday.
The approval would make the U.K. the first western country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine, the Times notes. Russia was the first country to approve a vaccine in August, and the move was widely criticized as the vaccine had not undergone crucial late-stage clinical trials.
The sources told the news outlets that deliveries would begin within hours of authorization, and the first injections could take place starting Dec. 7.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson named junior business minister Nadhim Zahawi as the minister responsible for deploying vaccines earlier in the day, Reuters reported. The U.K. has already ordered 40 million doses of the vaccine from the company.
Britain said on Nov. 20 that it asked the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency, its medical regulator, to assess the vaccine for its suitability, according to Reuters.
Congress Has Just 14 Days To Work Out COVID Stimulus Package This Year – Newsweek
As COVID-19 cases surge in the U.S., negotiations into a second stimulus package remain in limbo as Congress returns Monday.
Democrats and Republicans remain opposed about the scope of financial relief, but are expected to have the topic close to the top of their agendas as the end of the year draws near and president-elect Joe Biden prepares to enter the White House.
Timescales will be tight, with the House of Representatives having nine in-session days, and the Senate having 14, before breaking for New Year, Cnet reported.
After beating back the virus, officials in East Asia are forced to recalibrate their responses. – New York Times
For much of the year, every time Hong Kong beat back a surge of coronavirus cases, new problems would pop up weeks later.
Similar patterns hold true in other parts of Asia that are still fighting day-by-day battles to keep their Covid-19 rates from spiraling out of control. And the latest waves of infection are proving harder to trace than earlier ones were — just as winter forces more people indoors and raises the risks of transmission.
Japan and South Korea are experiencing some of their highest single-day tallies since the pandemic began, driven largely by diffuse clusters in the Tokyo and Seoul metropolitan areas. Tokyo alone reported a record 570 new infections on Friday, and greater Seoul reported more than 300 on Saturday.
Hong Kong is reporting about 65 new cases a day, fewer than the 100-plus cases that it reported on some days over the summer. But the Chinese territory is facing a surge that is driven in large part by what experts call untraceable “silent” transmissions.
“We’re getting better at having a large testing capacity, and we have a lot of resources for contact tracing, but the cycle repeats,” said Kwok Kin-on, an epidemiologist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Pfizer COVID Vaccine Flown Into U.S. Ahead of Planned Rollout – Newsweek
Planes carrying doses of a potential COVID vaccine are being flown into the United States, as regulators hope to give approval for a mass rollout imminently.
Chartered United Airlines flights reportedly began carrying doses of the vaccine to multiple areas around the country on Friday, with the first flight landing in Chicago that afternoon.
While there is no authorized vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19, it is hoped the planes will help allow for quick distribution if the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) does approve the shots for use in the U.S., The Wall Street Journal reported.
Pfizer, which developed the shot with Germany company BioNTech, applied for emergency use authorization for its vaccine last Friday. An FDA advisory committee is scheduled to meet on December 10 to vote on whether to recommend the vaccine for approval.
Moderna, which has also released promising data from trials, is expected to apply for a similar licence next week, according to USA Today.
The pandemic has made the already difficult college application process that much harder – New York Times
This is the season of peak anxiety for high school seniors planning to go to college, and on top of all the application forms and deadlines and personal essays they usually have to juggle, add a host of new obstacles in this pandemic year.
The coronavirus has put American families in financial crisis, forced millions of students to learn remotely, canceled college tours and standardized testing dates, and prevented legions of students from participating in the sports and other extracurricular activities that serve as creative outlets and résumé boosters.
“It’s all a balance, and I’m not really balanced right now,” said Lea Caldwell, 17, a Detroit student who is working part time as she wrestles with her senior year course load and her college applications.
Seniors and those who guide them through the process say the level of uncertainty and disruption is off the charts as the virus surges across the country, forcing many schools to shut down classrooms again and making weighty decisions about the future more fraught than ever.
“We’ve had to hold hands a lot more,” said Holly M. Markiecki-Bennetts, a guidance counselor at Ms. Caldwell’s school, Mercy High, in Farmington Hills, Mich.
White House testing czar Adm. Brett Giroir promoted mask wearing and social distancing on Sunday, saying that “testing alone will never solve this issue.”
Giroir told CNN’s “State of the Union” that the U.S. is “doing everything we can” to improve COVID-19 testing as the number of coronavirus hospitalizations and cases surge across the nation amid the Thanksgiving holiday.
“Unless we can control the viral spread, by doing the things like wearing a mask, avoiding indoor crowded spaces, you cannot test your way out of this,” he said.
“It’s gotta be the smart policies and universal mask wearing, … avoidance of those spaces with testing is how we get out of the pandemic,” Giroir said. “Testing alone will never solve this issue. You got to have both.”
President Trump‘s testing czar expressed confidence in vaccine development efforts, saying the U.S. should be able to administer the vaccine to 20 million Americans by the end of this year.
“This is a life-saving vaccine,” he said. “This puts the end to the pandemic. This is the way we get out of the pandemic.”
“The light is at the end of the tunnel, but the American people have to do the right things until we get that vaccine widely distributed: Wear a mask, avoid indoor crowded spaces, all things you know,” Giroir added.
Vaccines Could Be Forced Upon People Under Current Law, Warns FL Lawmaker – Newsweek
Anthony Sabatini, a GOP state representative from Florida, said he will file legislation to repeal a state law that could force people to get vaccinated during a public health emergency.
Sabatini warned Floridians that under the current law, Governor Ron DeSantis or any future governor of Florida could violate “personal liberties” by forcing people to quarantine or receive a vaccine.
“Right now in Florida, under the public health emergency statute chapter 381, they can literally take you, test you, quarantine you, but also force you to take a vaccine. They can restrain you and force you to do that,” he said. “The powers have not been used yet, but they’ve been on the books for over 25 years and it’s important that Floridians know that this power can’t be exercised by government, because it’s just too much an invasion of their personal liberties.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Germany Passes 1 Million Coronavirus Cases As Merkel Warns Of ‘A Tough Winter’
UK lab error results in more than 1K false positive coronavirus tests
Germany’s partial lockdown could extend into 2021: official
Cases are rising in South Africa ahead of its peak travel season.
Pyongyang steps up measures along inter-Korean border
Japan Reports More Than 2,600 New Coronavirus Cases, Its Highest Single-Day Increase
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
‘We Know We Are Asking A Lot.’ Los Angeles County Announces New Stay-At-Home Order
Surgeon general: Pandemic is ‘going to get worse,’ actions now ‘will determine how bad it is’
More than 150 arrested in London during anti-lockdown protest
This L.A. County City Still Allowing Outdoor Dining Latest Despite Ban
Who Should Get the COVID-19 Vaccine First? CDC to Hold Meeting Tuesday
U.S. coronavirus cases pass 4 million for the month of November, doubling the record set in October.
In Kansas City, two Covid-19 deaths in one weekend drive home the risks to firefighters.
To keep up with pandemic boom in online shopping, Amazon hired 427,300 employees in 10 months.
U.S. public school enrollment drops as parents, frustrated by lockdown, pull their children out.
A video in a hospital courtyard captures an 81-year-old Italian’s serenade to his dying wife.
Unable to meet in person, some A.A. members ‘thank Zoom for their very survival.’
Black Friday 2020 online shopping surges 22% to record $9 billion, Adobe says
The Denver Broncos have no quarterbacks for Sunday’s Saints game due to NFL Covid-19 protocols
Colorado Governor Jared Polis announces he has tested positive for COVID-19
Bandanas, scarves, and shields do an especially bad job.
Saints reportedly fined $500K, lose draft pick for violating NFL’s coronavirus guidelines again
Life after Covid: will our world ever be the same?
Patriots fined $350,000 for violating the NFL’s Coronavirus protocols
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Economic Disruption – The Need Of The Hour
Using Data To Show When Recessions End
Continued Strong Policy Action To Combat Uncertainty
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 29November 2020
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 29November 2020
Jobless Claims Creep Up As Recovery Stalls
New Research Suggests Immunity To COVID Is Better Than We First Thought
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- It seems a vaccine will be available before the end of the year – the question is how effective it will be in the general population AND how long immunity will last.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only two drugs (remdesivir and Regeneron) are approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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