Of the five regional surveys released to date, all except one show manufacturing expanding in November 2013.
Manufacturing in the Fifth District improved in November, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders rose. Employment, average workweek, and wages also picked up this month. Capacity utilization and the backlog of orders flattened, while vendor lead-time rose at a slower pace.
Manufacturers were optimistic about their future business prospects. Firms anticipated shipments and the volume of new orders would grow more quickly during the next six months. Additionally, they expected an increase in capacity utilization. Producers looked for rising backlogs of new orders and expected shorter vendor lead times. Survey participants predicted an increase in the number of employees and faster wage growth during the next six months. Additionally, firms projected slower growth in the average work week.
Raw materials and finished goods prices rose at a slower pace in November compared to last month. For the six months ahead, manufacturers expected slower growth in prices paid, while prices received were projected to increase at a faster pace, compared to their outlook of a month ago.
Current Activity
The composite index of manufacturing strengthened, climbing to a reading of 13 in November following last month’s reading of 1. The index of shipments improved 18 points, ending at 16, and the index for new orders advanced 15 points compared to a month ago. In addition, the index for the number of employees gained two points, finishing at a reading of 6.
Vendor lead-time shortened, shaving three points from last month’s index, to settle at 8. The backlog of orders index gained 14 points moving to a reading of −1. Capacity utilization flattened in November; the index gained five points, leveling off at 0. Finished goods and raw materials built up at a slightly slower rate this month. Those indexes shed one and three points respectively, with both gauges ending at a reading of 13.
Read entire source document from Richmond Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed Survey (dark green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.