Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 11-26-2013
Premarkets were flat and were trending down towards the opening after US Housing Permits and Home Prices posted gains.
Markets opened in the green, but flat on very low volume and looking to be another quiet market day. By 10 am the averages had fallen to yesterdays lows putting into the red, but regained flat status shortly after that.
Today is going to be another slow day with a tight trading range. The problem facing traders today is that the trading range, which has been so narrow during the trading day lately, is that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
The short term indicators are leaning lightly towards the sell side at the opening, but I would advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed’s cryptic utterances in hinting when the taper will begin and by how much. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does WHEN it actually does something.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is actually going to do, simple as that. If we get some Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion, how much of course depends on much bond buying takes place. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future.
Members of the FOMC believe the US economy has shown signs of improvement, but they have assured short-term interest rates would remain low for quite some time to come. Alpari Market Analyst, Craig Erlam, said: “Many members of the Fed now appear eager to start winding down its asset purchases and are looking for ways to do it that will create the least disruption in the financial markets, such as setting simple thresholds for reductions, or even more simply, providing a timetable for tapering that is not data dependent.”
ADVFN reported, “The rally in question has been built on the back of the Fed’s promise of a stimulatory environment. If any catalyst points to the Fed giving up its accommodative stance, there is a danger of a pullback and near term support for the index lies around the 15,965, 15,890 and 15,804 levels.”
Personally, I think it could go a lot lower.
Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top – but I wouldn’t count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out ‘Market Viagra’! I would like to see a blowout candle (shooting star) to verify a top along with heavy volume.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 16097 up 26 or 0.16%.
The SP500 is at 1805 up 2 or 0.12%.
SPY is at 180.83 up 0.20 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 1128 up 3.73 or 0.33%.
NASDAQ is at 4003 up 9 or 0.22%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3436 up 8 or 0.24%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 94.68 and 93.85 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 94.23.
Brent Crude is trading between 110.51 and 111.46 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 111.28.
Gold fell from 1254.95 earlier to 1241.10 and is currently trading down at 1245.65.
Dr. Copper is at 3.217 falling from 3.239 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.94 and 80.66 and is currently trading up at 80.82, the bias is currently mixed with a negative slant.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary