Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 11-21-2013
At 1:45 the DOW tested the 16000 level with a suspicious moderate volume spike rising to 16010 while the SP500 remained at 1795, below its magic level of 1800. Volume fell to anemic levels 5 minutes later and 22 minutes after this mysterious rise it fell below 16000. Anyone who thinks this casino market isn't manipulate needs to see a doctor.
By 4pm the DOW closed at 16010 but under moderate selling, another 2 minutes it would have been under 15999. The SP500 never made it to the 1800 magic mark, not a bullish sign. Since this is a casino market, any bets on the averages turning a down day tomorrow?
Addendum: On very low volume the Wall Street Crooks tried again at 2:42 pm moving the DOW up to 16006 and the SP500 to 1798 but falling 3 minutes later. It finally rose back on low volume and if you are wondering how in the heck can prices elevate with no one buying, think no further than the HFT computers.
The following article is one view of the current situation and time will tell who is right. Right now the trend is my friend until it isn't.
You know, it's funny; with the stock market hitting all-time highs and market sentiment becoming ever more bullish, you would think that the economic recovery both here in America and globally was right on track.
But you'd be wrong. The economic recovery is not accelerating globally, and here in America, we just witnessed a minor bump up in growth primarily led by a build-up in inventory.
The short term indicators are slightly leaning towards the sell side at the close, but I would advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed's cryptic utterances in hinting when the taper will begin or by how much. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does WHEN it actually does something.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is actually going to do, simple as that. If we get some Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion, how much of course depends on the total amount of bond purchases. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future.
Members of the FOMC believe the US economy has shown signs of improvement, but they have assured short-term interest rates would remain low for quite some time to come. Alpari Market Analyst, Craig Erlam, said: "Many members of the Fed now appear eager to start winding down its asset purchases and are looking for ways to do it that will create the least disruption in the financial markets, such as setting simple thresholds for reductions, or even more simply, providing a timetable for tapering that is not data dependent."
Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'! I would like to see a blowout candle to verify a top along with heavy volume.
In summary, looking at the current market climate relative to the 2007 top shows a market that is nowhere close to putting in a major market top.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15989 up 89 or 0.56%.
The SP500 is at 1792 up 10 or 0.58%.
SPY is at 179.47 up 1 or 0.56%.
The $RUT is at 1116 up 16 or .46%.
NASDAQ is at 3954 up 33 or 0.85%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3388 up 21 or 0.61%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been mixed and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 93.46 and 94.81 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 94.77.
Brent Crude is trading between 107.62 and 108.67 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 108.67.
Gold fell from 1249.44 earlier to 1236.29 and is currently trading up at 1239.30.
Dr. Copper is at 3.167 rising from 3.147 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.33 and 80.99 and is currently trading down at 81.14, the bias is currently sideways.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary