Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 11-21-2013
Midday markets have been trading in a very narrow range for most of the morning on falling volume. One investor put the situation into perspective when he stated, “What the hell is Mr. Market waiting for this time?”
By noon the averages were sea-sawing sideways on anemic volume looking tired, unattractive and trending slightly downward.
I have said for years that this market is being manipulated and it is nice to know Mr. Schwab agrees.
While the world of mainstream media stock pundits would like investors to believe that there is a wall of money on the sidelines waiting anxiously to go all-in on stocks (bear in mind there’s a seller for every buyer and where does the cash on the sidelines go when it is handed over to the seller in return for his stock?), as none other than Charles Schwab notes
. . . “investors are less rattled” than most believe, “and have stayed invested” in large part. “There hasn’t been a wholesale movement away from stocks,” he goes on, busting myths asunder, adding that “investors want to see market-driven conditions, not Fed manipulated ones.”
The short term indicators are slightly leaning towards the sell side at the midday, but I would advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed’s cryptic utterances in hinting when the taper will begin or by how much. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does WHEN it actually does something.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is actually going to do, simple as that. If we get some Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion, how much of course depends on the total amount of bond purchases. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future.
Members of the FOMC believe the US economy has shown signs of improvement, but they have assured short-term interest rates would remain low for quite some time to come. Alpari Market Analyst, Craig Erlam, said: “Many members of the Fed now appear eager to start winding down its asset purchases and are looking for ways to do it that will create the least disruption in the financial markets, such as setting simple thresholds for reductions, or even more simply, providing a timetable for tapering that is not data dependent.”
Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top – but I wouldn’t count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out ‘Market Viagra’! I would like to see a blowout candle to verify a top along with heavy volume.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 15989 up 89 or 0.56%.
The SP500 is at 1792 up 10 or 0.58%.
SPY is at 179.47 up 1 or 0.56%.
The $RUT is at 1116 up 16 or .46%.
NASDAQ is at 3954 up 33 or 0.85%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3388 up 21 or 0.61%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been mixed and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 93.46 and 94.81 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 94.77.
Brent Crude is trading between 107.62 and 108.67 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 108.67.
Gold fell from 1249.44 earlier to 1236.29 and is currently trading up at 1239.30.
Dr. Copper is at 3.167 rising from 3.147 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.33 and 80.99 and is currently trading down at 81.14, the bias is currently sideways.
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Written by Gary