June 26th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 06-26-2013
Premarkets were up +0.50% after the 'not-so-good' financial readings (chart below) however I do expect the markets to improve somewhat over the next several sessions. A correction within a correction.
Markets gaped up on the opening for the cash crowd leaving and all too familiar gap at the opening bell for several of the major indices. In this case, these gaps are bearish indicators for market movements in the future. Volume was pathetically low at the opening and continued to remain that way by 10 am.
The talk on the street is everything from doomsday predictions to expecting the DOW to rise above 15,520 and and beyond. Personally, I see the averages melting/moving back up to last Wednesday's closing prices mainly to close gaps. From there is anyone's guess, but I think downward pressure from China's credit crisis and the EU continuing unemployment and banking problems will be my guess.
The Commerce Department reports the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the first quarter, down from a previous estimate of 2.4%. Economists expected the economy to expand at a rate of 2.4% in the first three months of the year.
The markets are racing out of the gate as traders continue scooping up stocks at a discount and shrug off much weaker-than-expected data on the U.S. economy. The Dow [was] up 135 points, or 0.92%, while the broader S&P 500 [was] up by the same margin on a percent basis. Every major sector is in the green.
Downer on Taper talk this morning after the reports. BAD NEWS IS GOOD says @Faros_Techs.
The first column is what was reported. The second is what was expected by the analysts and the third is the last report.
The RRR** was narrow at the opening bell today as it has been for the past 4 sessions. This low volume and narrow trading sessions makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible, thus making trading futile and unprofitable.
As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch any new highs as that should have been done on Friday or Monday, safely anyway. Traders also need to be especially cautious how close you set your stops as we have seen lately several corrections that unnecessarily wiped out a lot of investment profits. As for shorting, it still may be too early to start picking out your best candidates.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains.
Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any day trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing continually, that there are good setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: At 81% Slips From 93% Last Week and Secondaries Also Slip From Confirm "Tradable" to Negative This might be true, but still above ~60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn't match this bull run.
The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also risky for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 14867 up 107 or 0.72%.
The SP500 is at 1598 up 11 or 0.67%.
SPY is at 159.68 up 1 or 0.71%.
The $RUT is at 964.06 up 3 or 0.30%.
NASDAQ is at 3372 up 24 or 0.73%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2890 up 24 or 0.84%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bearish to neutral and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 94.28 and 95.55 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 95.07.
Brent crude is trading between 101.63 and 100.53 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 101.36.
Gold fell from 1253.76 earlier to 1223.50 and is currently trading up at 1239.35.
Dr. Copper is at 3.067 rising from 3.019 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.14 and 82.74 and is currently trading down at 82.96, the bias is currently neutral to negative.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary