March 12th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 03-12-2013
Markets closed down and flat with the DOW finally turning to red having been in the green longer than the other major indices. However, that didn't last long as the DOW closed up at +$2.77 Very slow news day and that accounted for much of the sideways trading today.
Guaranteed, news will be the factor that will move the markets, but which way is the question. I know one thing I am not going to guess and be wrong. With the FED's pouring tons of money into the 'system' every month the averages could easily continue to move up.
Interestingly, during the last minute there was another buying/selling binge indicating big lot movements which in itself is not conducive of any trends, but something is going on.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and has continued the trend again today. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting, especially with the Fed printing 85 billion a month.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the first quarter, but unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 87% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true (for last week anyway), but difficult to deal with. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 14450 up 2.77 or 0.02%.
The SP500 is at 1552 down 3.74 or -0.24%.
SPY is at 155.65 down 0.38 or -0.24%.
The $RUT is at 940.26 down 2.25 or -0.24%.
NASDAQ is at 3242 down 10.55 or -0.32%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 91.60 and 93.48 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 92.61.
Brent crude is trading between 108.10 and 110.15 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading up at 108.74.
Gold rose from 1576.90 earlier to 1597.75 and is currently trading sideways at 1593.23.
Dr. Copper is at 3.55 up from 3.50 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.10 and 82.70 and is currently trading down at 82.83, the bias is currently neutral with a bearish slant.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary