February 19th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 02-19-2013
Closely watching the SP500 melt up and every time I thought that was it the high for the session, bang, up it moved a few cents again to a high of 1530.94 just shy of the 1552 super resistance level. Maybe just a few cents, but up it went anyway pushing it nearly up to past highs of 10-1-2007 and 3-1-2000 – triple top maybe? Spurts of buying and profit taking have dominated the late afternoon session action and my proprietary indicators still lean towards the bearish side of things.
The DOW made a double top today equaling a 10-1-2007 average of 14000 as it bumped along just below that demarcation. SPY is approaching a triple top at the 154.90 area at a high of 153.21.
Today's session movements still remain highly suspicious of the HFT algo computers and DaBoyz manipulating the numbers which in turn draw in the last of the sheeples – don't be one of them.
I don't have to tell anyone that busting through the resistance the major averages where they are now will be very bullish and super bearish at the same time. Now is NOT the time to buy or go short. Selling or at least reducing my downside exposure seems to be the reasonable action to be contemplate. From the looks of the last five minutes of the session, tomorrow could be the day of reckoning.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and has continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the first quarter, but unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Drops to 82% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 14035 up 53.91 or 0.39%.
The SP500 is at 1530.94 up 11.15 or 0.73%.
SPY is at 153.19 up 1.08 or 0.70%.
The $RUT is at 927.12 up 3.98 or 0.43%.
NASDAQ is at 3213 up 21.56 or 0.68%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 95.31 and 96.72 this afternoon. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 96.67.
Gold fell from 1618.00 earlier to 1600.60 and is currently trading down at 1604.66. The bias has gone from bearish to neutral.
Dr. Copper is at 3.65 fell from 3.70 earlier. The bias has gone from bearish to neutral.
The US dollar fell from 80.76 earlier to 80.52 and is currently trading up at 80.55. The bias is bearish.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary