EURUSD Technical Analysis (June 3-7): Euro Dollar Weekly Update

June 3rd, 2013
in contributors, forex

by Nick Simpson, Forex-FX-4X

  • Our euro/dollar analysis last week highlighted a breakout above the upper trend line of the triangle pattern – as seen on the H4 chart below. A technical level located just under the H4 200 SMA (simple moving average) and the 50% retrace area.
  • Price has subsequently seen a retest of the upper trend line – after finding resistance around the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace – and ultimately closed the day just under the 1.3000 round number area, with neither the bulls nor bears showing any real commitment.
  • Nonetheless, we note that the EURUSD pair finished the week near the range resistance high point and is now consolidating around a 1.2940 – 1.3040 zone, after seeing an extended period around 1.2840 – 1.3000.

Follow up:

  • Any further push higher through 1.3000 has the 61.8% Fibonacci level roughly aligned with the descending trend line as a technical area of confluence around 1.3060.
  • A failure to sustain recent gains has price threatening to once again see a rangebound phase between 1.2840 – 1.3000.
  • The latest COT report data shows traders increased the net short EUR FX wager by almost 5% on the prior week to hit $13.5 billion.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

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